Premiership Win System

[sportingprofit]

It works by finding the % of each teams Home Wins/Draws/Losses and Away Wins/Draws/Losses. Then when two teams meet it works out the chance of home win / away win and draw.

Here is how it would work for this weekend fixtures.

Chelsea = 57.14%
Draw = 25%
Tottenham = 17%

Result = Home Win (4/9)

Man City = 52.38%
Draw = 23.81%
Villa = 23.81%

Result = Home Win (EVS)

Birmingham = 51.07%
Draw = 26.77%
Fulham = 22.14%

Result = Home Win (4/5)

Everton = 51.07%
Draw = 24.41%
Newcastle = 24.53%

Result = Home Win (11/8)

Bolton = 50%
Draw = 33.34%
Middlesbrough = 16.67%

Result = Home Win (6/5)

The higher the % the more chance it has of winning. Over 50% would mean it should win.

Another load of selections which may come from this are lays. Any team less than 25% or maybe 20%. So this weekend it would of be:

Aston Villa = 23.81% (5/2)
Fulham = 22.14% (10/3)
Newcastle = 24.53% (13/8)
Spurs = 17% (6/1)
Middlesbrough = 16.67% (9/5)

I will continue to post the selections for the next few weeks to see if it is profitable or not.

Replies would be welcome.

[sportingprofit]

I have placed these selections in a Canadian (consists of 10 doubles / 10 trebles / 5 four-folds / 1 five-folds), but as I am testing only using very small odds. 1pt=£0.01

26bets=26pts
Liability=26pts
Max Return=139.75pts
Max Profit=113.75pts

I will post the actual profit below
Actual Profit = *pts

[sportingprofit]

Last night I added the head to head between the two teams to the system.

This showed that I Everton would not of been a bet and Man Utd would of been.

This would of resulted in SR=100% for Saturdays fixtures.

Here is what the % would of been with the head to head added where teams have met more than 3 times at the stadium game is being played at:

Bolton Draw Middlesbrough
55.57% 33.33% 11.12%
Result = Home Win

Charlton Draw Man Utd
20.64% 24.21% 55.16%
Result = Away Win

Chelsea Draw Tottenham
59.31% 29.58% 11.11%
Result = Home Win

Everton Draw Newcastle
47.38% 22.94% 29.68
Result = No Bet

Birmingham Draw Fulham
51.07% 26.77% 22.14%
Result = No Bet (less than 4 games played at Birmingham)

Man City Draw Aston Villa
51.57% 26.98% 21.43%
Result = Home Win

Blackburn Draw Liverpool
43.39% 26.98% 29.56%
Result = No Bet

I will continue with this version of the system with the head to head % added.