Favourites Laying System

[sportingprofit]

Rules:
1.Horse must of won last time out
2.Horse must be favourite
3.Odds must be 7/2 or less

Testing this system from 1st January and 22nd January has shown a profit of:
To win 1pt = 18.23pts
Liability of 1pt = 4.25pts
SR=64/105 (61%)

Tomorrows possibilities are:
Chepstow 16:25 Lilac
Musselburgh 12:40 Bonnie Parker
Musselburgh 13:15 Wuxi Venture
Musselburgh 13:50 Middleway
Musselburgh 15:00 Outside Investor
Musselburgh 15:35 Joint Authority
Musselburgh 16:05 Maybe She Will
Wolverhampton 12:50 Tropical Sun
Wolverhampton 13:25 Jair Ohmsford
Wolverhampton 14:00 Back At De Front
Wolverhampton 14:35 Sendinthetank
Wolverhampton 16:15 Gavorche

Only selecitons if goes off fav under 7/2 (4.5 on Betfair).

[Win2Win]

Hi Sp,

Thought I'd run the system through RSB National Hunt while I have a minute.

2 out of the last 5 years wouldn't have produced a profit, one in fact showing a profit, and with a 6% ROI% for the others, some people may struggle as they have to pay commission at different rates.

However, adding the variable Gd-Sft/Heavy only dramatically increases the profit potential by almost doubling the ROI%, but it does reduce the number of qualifiers.

It can also be tweaked a lot more by dropping Sellers, as they have a good SR with Favs over jumps.

I can do it for the flat if you wish, or should I just bugger off :)?

[sportingprofit]

Hi! Keith I ran the results through another site that allows you to do it for free and gave out loads of statistics. Here are some of the results since 1st Jan 2004 to 17th Jan 2004 (this is based on backing the selections):

SR=21/53 (39.6%)
Win % Return @ SP = 83.8%
Placed (inc wins) = 33 (62.3%)

So by laying these selections you would make an average profit of £16 for every £100 staked.

Here are the selections from 1st Jan 2004 to 17th Jan 2004:
1 Jan 2004 12:20 Cheltenham WATERLAW 7-4 1/7
1 Jan 2004 12:50 Cheltenham THEREALBANDIT 4-9 1/4
1 Jan 2004 13:55 Cheltenham JAKARI 7-2 5/9
1 Jan 2004 14:30 Cheltenham TROUBLE AT BAY 5-6 1/9
1 Jan 2004 15:35 Cheltenham SECRET PLOY 11-4 1/13
1 Jan 2004 15:50 Exeter SUPREME SERENADE 8-11 3/12
3 Jan 2004 13:05 Sandown CALLING BRAVE 5-6 1/3
3 Jan 2004 15:20 Sandown BALLYLUSKY 7-4 4/8
4 Jan 2004 13:45 Plumpton NON SO 2-5 1/6
4 Jan 2004 14:15 Plumpton HE'S THE BOSS 4-11 7/8
6 Jan 2004 13:15 Wetherby MANAWANUI 5-6 1/5
6 Jan 2004 13:50 Wetherby GRAPHIC APPROACH 9-4 1/22
6 Jan 2004 14:25 Wetherby DRUIDS CONFEDERACY 8-11 7/25
7 Jan 2004 14:10 Musselburgh TOUCH CLOSER 3-1 6/15
7 Jan 2004 14:40 Musselburgh WORKAWAY 7-4 8/10
8 Jan 2004 14:30 Wincanton RAKALACKEY 10-3 6/18
8 Jan 2004 15:00 Wincanton MASTER RIDE 7-4 5/6
8 Jan 2004 16:00 Wincanton HERON'S GHYLL 11-4 2/10
9 Jan 2004 12:50 Towcester RED RUFFLES 10-3 4/10
9 Jan 2004 13:00 Ludlow GREGORIAN 10-11 1/9
9 Jan 2004 14:20 Towcester TOON TROOPER 6-4 4/13
9 Jan 2004 14:30 Ludlow WATER KING 11-4 2/7
9 Jan 2004 15:00 Ludlow MAGICAL BAILIWICK 4-6 1/13
9 Jan 2004 15:20 Towcester THE RIVER JOKER 3-1 2/10
10 Jan 2004 12:35 Haydock LIBERMAN 1-1 16/20
10 Jan 2004 12:50 Ascot LE PASSING 13-8 2/14
10 Jan 2004 13:05 Warwick ROYAL EMPEROR 1-1 6/7
10 Jan 2004 13:10 Haydock SH BOOM 1-2 1/8
10 Jan 2004 13:25 Ascot FIRST LOVE 10-3 10/11
10 Jan 2004 13:35 Warwick EMANIC 4-5 3/9
10 Jan 2004 13:40 Haydock KINGSCLIFF 4-7 2/5
10 Jan 2004 14:20 Uttoxeter DANCING BAY 6-4 6/11
10 Jan 2004 14:25 Ascot GOLDBROOK 9-4 3/9
10 Jan 2004 14:35 Warwick INGLIS DREVER 8-15 1/6
10 Jan 2004 15:00 Ascot BAL DE NUIT 8-11 1/3
10 Jan 2004 15:25 Uttoxeter LAZY BUT LIVELY 5-2 2/8
10 Jan 2004 15:35 Warwick CAMPAIGN TRAIL 9-4 2/14
10 Jan 2004 15:55 Uttoxeter MOUNT CLERIGO 5-2 1/16
10 Jan 2004 16:00 Ascot SIXO 6-4 4/9
12 Jan 2004 14:00 Fontwell THE GREY BUTLER 6-4 10/13
13 Jan 2004 14:40 Sedgefield GRATTAN LODGE 10-11 1/15
13 Jan 2004 15:00 Leicester KELANTAN 7-2 4/15
14 Jan 2004 14:20 Newbury TRABOLGAN 2-5 1/10
16 Jan 2004 13:10 Kelso STEPPES OF GOLD 1-1 1/19
16 Jan 2004 13:30 Huntingdon BILLYWILL 11-10 2/11
16 Jan 2004 13:40 Kelso JENGA 10-11 5/8
16 Jan 2004 14:00 Huntingdon EASTER PRESENT 11-8 2/13
16 Jan 2004 15:10 Kelso CHIVALRY 6-4 1/17
17 Jan 2004 12:50 Kempton LORD SAM 4-11 1/5
17 Jan 2004 13:25 Kempton CARACCIOLA. 1-3 2/4
17 Jan 2004 13:45 Wincanton WATERLAW 13-8 6/7
17 Jan 2004 14:10 Wetherby CRUISE LEADER 5-2 1/9
17 Jan 2004 15:25 Wincanton TUCACAS 4-5 1/5

[Win2Win]

You need to check at least 2 years data for lay SP, to give you the true picture.

RSB is correct.

One of the problems with laying is first you have to overcome the 20% better odds + commission, which means you need at least a 25% ROI% to profit, that's worse case. I never use anything less than an overall 20% ROI% to ensure I'm giving the best possible chance of long term profit.

As you say, it's just a test, but I don't see it suddenly turning around 10 years of history from 11000+ bets.

Just trying to help you improve the selection process, tell me to ::swear if you wish :)

[podtog]

You say all the starting prices are in with the RSB, so would I be able to see profit/loss on the new system I mentioned yesterday (eureka).

[sportingprofit]

The site I use goes back over 5 years of data, I was just using a the results from January. I think the ROI% for the 5years was about 9%.

Also on Betfair when laying favourites the price is not usually 20% better, most favs our virtually similar prices to the SP it is usually the outsuders where you get the higher prices.

I'll continue to test the system with Betfairs prices, so will give a more accurate perspective of whether it will make a profit or not.

Thanks
SP

[Win2Win]

20% is the average, but even 2/1 shots can be 25%. My own percentage of my winners over SP this week so far is 32%, a nightmare for layers.

[sportingprofit]

Todays Results:
Musselburgh 13:15 Wuxi Venture 2.58 L
Wolverhampton 14:35 Sendinthetank 1.83 W
Musselburgh 15:35 Joint Authority 1.93 L
Wolverhampton 16:15 Gavorche 1.91 L

Profit:
To win 1pt = 2.17pts
Liability of 1pt = 1.81pts

[Win2Win]

The only winners today were the layers, what happened to the form book? :doh

I think those mobile phone transmitters are playing with the horses minds!!