System Advice

[Win2Win]

Just a quick tip here.

When starting a new system, regardless of how simple, or complex it is, whether it is a selection process, or staking plan, you must test it over a minimum period of 100 bets. This can give you a general idea of its capabilities.

You can bet that you come up with a fail-safe staking plan, it's tested out on 500 past results & made a £MILLION. You can't wait, so you start betting live;
WON4/1
WON3/1
LOST
WON2/1
(Bloody Brilliant, I'll have that car soon)
Lost.....Lost........Lost.......+ another 5
WON8/11
Lost.....Lost........Lost.......+ another 8
Won1/1
Won1/5
Lost.....Lost........Lost.......+ another 7
Won2/1
Lost.....Lost........Lost.......+ another 11

Your now totally piddled off, your £MILLION system failed before the first 50, it emptied your betting bank, and you think bugger that for a game of carrots, and scrap the system, and move on to the next.

Pity really, as you never new that the next 50, and onwards for eternity you would have had a new car........

(I can also bet that as soon as you start a new system, it WILL hit a losing run, that's sod's law):spinning

[biyax]

Nice Read Boss,

one of oldest thread here,

Are Systems Better Than Ratings ?

Cheers.

STUPID NEWBIE

[Win2Win]

They are totally different. You should only use ratings as a variable in a system and not use them blindly or you'll just lose money.

[Godspot]

Are Systems Better Than Ratings?

They are totally different. You should only use ratings as a variable in a system and not use them blindly or you'll just lose money.

Flat

2y: 80+
3y: 90+
4y: 100+?

Jumps

Juveniles: 100+
4y Hdles: 110+
H & C’s: 120+

As a quick little example in response to the last two comments here - until I started doing my own ratings, or rather in an attempt to get a grip/rating for lightly raced types, I used to note horses that were 5lbClr on two sets of figures, whether that be Topspeed/RPR & or Official Ratings, as long as a horse was 5lbClr on any two -

& decided what we need is a cut-off point as to whether the figure is Worthy of being backable or not-so worthy & Layable,

I note that there were a couple of good examples today, as Bryn's, Sister Andrea loses 3.55 Yarmouth, she had an Unworthy 5lbClr figure & that J Gosden's, Electrician, the first @ Yarmouth, he was a Worthy 5lb'er as his unadjusted figs would have exceeded 80 the cut-off point for 2yo's, he won 8/11f

I recall trainer R Hannon's 5lb'ers being pretty reliable worthy or not & that any horse that beats a Worthy 5lb'er, they usually turn out pretty good & win again.

[biyax]

Observation is the best way than any rating and any system. Both system and rating are useful tool/utility to picking winner, but "observation" is best one.

[Win2Win]

I use systems and observations, but male a lot more from the former as turnover is much higher.

[Godspot]

Observation is the best way than any rating and any system. Both system and rating are useful tool/utility to picking winner, but "observation" is best one.

Can we have an example of this 'observation,' I is intrigued....:smile:

[biyax]

Can we have an example of this 'observation,' I is intrigued....:smile:

The Race Reading : observation of horses' positions, problems, and maneuvers at various stages of the races.

This is a real example for the observation, this is a not possibility ( probability, chance, contingency, likelihood, prospect, odds, eventuality, presumption, verisimilitude, potentiality, sight ) :laughitupsmilie::laughitupsmilie::laughitupsmilie:

STUPID NEWBIE

[Win2Win]

I made my money from observations during races when I first turned pro in the late 90's, research into stats came a couple of years later. :thumbs