manckevin's 6/1+ Beaten Favourites

[manckevin]

Instead of hijacking DZ's thread, I'll post them in my own!

CRITERIA
Beaten favourite in last race.
Must have won in at least one of last three races.
Priced at 6/1 or above (forecast price).

It really is that simple! Worked for me a while back, when I did it just on the flat, but I've found it works just as well on both, and of course with the price criteria can find some decent winners.

Kevin

[John]

Hi Kevin,

Definitely seems like a nice system so far from the results in the other thread! I'll keep a close eye on it. Do you have any stats for it?

[manckevin]

I've tinkered with it, but since it went on to including the win in last three (26 March) it shows (26 March to 6 April):
53 selections
6 winners 3/1, 9/1, 13/2, 12/1, 13/2, 12/1
16 places

11.32% Win SR
30.19% Place SR

£1 Level Stakes Win Bank +£3.00

NH was included on 1 April. From that time (1 April to 6 April):
34 selections
5 winners
7 places

All other stats are tied into the data from 26 March and I really can't be bothered to work them out - yet :)

Things do appear to have improved in the last four or five days.

Kevin

[John]

Cheers Kevin, will be watching with a keen interest. :)

[manckevin]

Yeah, it'll fall flat on it's face over the next week now - you watch!

Kevin

[MarcusMel]

To repeat a bit of advice given by keith - a system should be tested for 100 selections. So one week should not be considered significant.

[manckevin]

It's always in "test" mode - certainly until the flat settles down a bit as well! Constant tweaking is, and I think should be, a constant part of any successful "system".

Kevin

[MarcusMel]

Too frequent tweaking wont tell you anything. Unless you have acess to lots of past results and and the software to test out ideas. Then looking at the last 3 months of results for filters to tweak. A system is a LONG TERM exercise. A bit like putting money in a high interest account and letting it accumulate over time.

[manckevin]

Understand completely, I was just trying to sound sensible (for once)!!!

Kevin

[ryalux]

this isn't my cup of tea.

[manckevin]

this isn't my cup of tea.

Ignore it then! And what's tea??? :drinkme :D

[ryalux]

manckevin it originates from china & you can put lemon in, it improves the flavour, if you go in the ritz they will charge you a hundred quid for afternoon tea (cheap at half the price).

[manckevin]

I'll stick with my co-op Fair Trade Rich Roast ta :D

[Win2Win]

Budgie's go 'cheap' not tea :doh