Baseball..HIGH on TOTAL RUNS Spread Bets

[Larsson7]

Again betting every match HIGH on TOTAL RUNS...using SPREAD BETTING ( lines from Sportingindex) and 2 points per run...I ran this for the first time last night, and made a nice 60.5 points profit ( included 36 point profit from Atalanta/NY Mets match !!)

Again will update this thread as the week goes on.

Larsson7

[bigcumba]

that sounds good Larsson, particularly as you can do these to tiny risks on BetHiLo, assuming they cover the matches. Might be a decent way of building up a nice wee bank. Good work as always mate!

[Larsson7]

LOSS last night of 21.5 points.....season to date PROFIT 8.75.

Larsson7

[Larsson7]

Profit of 1.5 points last night...PROFIT TO DATE 10.25 points

Larsson7

[Larsson7]

LOSS last night of 22 POINTS...to date after 4 days/nights...LOSS 11.75 points.

Spread run lines on average 1 run higher than fixed odd lines...any advice on this folks.

Larsson7

[MattR]

Hi Al,


If they are setting them higher, I wonder how going low would loook? Might be worth monitoring it as well? If they are setting them in their favour then it might pay to go LOW? Just a thought. I've noticed the bookies certainly react to the previous days game (if it is the same series still) to set the new lines.

Matt

[MattR]

Al,

Just done a quick analysis, which might be of some use. This is the number of runs scored per game so far this season (excluding extra innings)

Runs--Times
1-----1
2-----1
3-----5
4-----5
5-----5
6-----3
7-----7
8-----4
9-----6
10-----4
11-----6
12-----6
13-----4
14-----4
15-----4
16-----4
17-----1
18-----2
19-----1
20-----1
28-----1


59.4% are over 8 runs

So, just a quick thought, if all lines were moved to 8 (if possible), although the odds would be less favourable, so far there would be 59.4% winners, plus 4 pushes, with 35.14% losses.



Then I looked at teams. This is teams ave runs so far per game (themselves, not both teams totals) Listed them by division.


AL EAST
Yankees 4.43 (only scored more than 4 once!)
Red Sox 4.50
Orioles 4.67
Devil Rays 4.50
Blue Jays 3.40

AL CENTRAL
Tigers 7.00 (who'd have predicted that!)
Twins 6.80
White Sox 5.60
Indians 5.67
Royals 4.60

AL WEST
Mariners 4.00
Angels 7.00
Rangers 6.20
A's 3.80


NL EAST
Mets 5.60
Braves 7.20
Expos 1.80!!
Phillies 2.80
Marlins 3.60

NL CENTRAL
Astros 6.60
Cardinals 8.00
Brewers 7.17
Pirates 2.80
Reds 4.00
Cubs 2.80


NL WEST
Giants 4.00
Padres 4.60
Dodgers 3.60
D'Backs 5.00
Rockies 4.80



Some interesting averages there. Who'd have thought the Yankees would be struggling to get runs with their lineup?

I'm going to monitor this out of interest, it's given me an idea, albeit simplistic. I'm going to monitor the games by using the teams average runs scored to date + their opponents and seeing how they are in relation to the high/low line and seeing how many lower/higher are correct. More out of curiosity than anything.

Anyway, hope these help with ideas for the spread and lines total

Matt

[Larsson7]

Good work mate........just in from Cup Semi ( beat Livvy 3-1...most low key semi ever !!!!!!!!!!)

Will digest and get back to you.

Larsson7

[Larsson7]

Update.....this looks like a short cut to the poor house...after 5 days LOSS of 32.75 points.

Maybe I am too impatient ?

Larsson7

[bigcumba]

It seems way too volatile to follow with any decent amount of cash at the moment, but that's part of what makes sperad betting 'fun' for those who indulge. Still might be worth monitoring for another few days at least, and if it's still going down the toilet, leave it at that.

[Larsson7]

Hi Big C.

Yeah I think you are spot on mate. The lines are certainly on average 1 run higher than they would have been for same match ups last season.. Of the 7 games on tap today , using Wm Hills we have 3 at +10, and nothing under 8.5....spread lines are on average 1- 1.25 above these.

Will give it another week and see how it goes.

Thanks for the input.

Side note......went to Hampden yesterday.. 26,000 there...we took more than that to Barcelona !!! Most low key semi ever...doubt Livvy had 2,000 with them. In fairness , we have shelled out a small fortune on tickets these past couple of months , in addition to our season books. And hopefully the ones there yesterday will get first dibs at final tickets.

Other semi on Saturday , also at Hampden...13,000 !!! Why is was at hampden , Lord only knows. Replay is at Aberdeen I think , which makes a bit of sense...but sadly , won't attract even 10,000. Scottish football is in a bad way . Livvy expect to " beat " the all time low attendance for a league game before the season is out. They had 2,700 for match Vs Killie in midweek.

Later mate.

Al .

[MattR]

Al,

Just wondering here, what would the results be like with the spread if you only went high on anything set under 10?

[MattR]

Al,

Just updated my stats from last night. Average runs per game for all MLB so far this season stands at 9.8.

[Larsson7]

Better night last night, despite what I thought where some fairly high lines...25 point profit reduces the LOSS to date to 7.75 points after 6 days with this system.

Larsson7

[MattR]

Looks like it's certainly worth sticking with, been plenty of high scoring games which should offset most lows.

[Larsson7]

Some HIGH scoring games last night...nice PROFIT of 24 points.

PROFIT after running this for 7 days...16.25 points.

Larsson7

[MattR]

Nice night Al, still looking ok long term I reckon. Are you doing this for real or paper?

[Larsson7]

Nice night Al, still looking ok long term I reckon. Are you doing this for real or paper?


Matt...yeah doing it for cash ..small stakes ie mim risk at the moment to see how it pans out.

have you used your Sportingindex acct? I do a bit of spread betting baseball/soccer/cricket.. and they gave me £100 cash after 20 bets..nice one.

Al.

[MattR]

Nice, no I'm still on my free two weeks play bets.

[Larsson7]

Nice, no I'm still on my free two weeks play bets.

How is that going..up /down.

[MattR]

Initially woeful as I put in the wrong units on a win game and lost about 330! in one hit (thankfully this is play money, what a way to learn!!) Am back up to 739 now (69 up) but only cos I did another larger unit one to try and get it back up (not something I'd do with real money!) MIght have another play on it tonight.

[Larsson7]

Initially woeful as I put in the wrong units on a win game and lost about 330! in one hit (thankfully this is play money, what a way to learn!!) Am back up to 739 now (69 up) but only cos I did another larger unit one to try and get it back up (not something I'd do with real money!) MIght have another play on it tonight.

Yeah mate losing 330 in one hit would be a nice learing experience !!!!

Not sure why..but I have a feeling tonight we are going to see some really high scores..famous last words I know..just a feeling.

Al

[Larsson7]

So much hunch was spot on last night re high scoring games..9 HIGH.. 4 LOW...

Anyway...PROFIT last night of 41 points.

RUNNING PROFIT for system now 57.25 points. after 8 days.

Larsson7

[MattR]

Very nice. Looking like it could be profitable long term. Ave runs per game now up to 10.28 by the way.

If my ave runs thing works long term, it might be able to help with the LOW games to avoid. I'm starting to see a trend with the figures on those. The amount under the line of the average runs has some correlation it seems as to whether the game will go low. Games coming up under a certain point are currently 7/10 low. If those keep up that rate, avoiding those on the blanket HIGH might increase profits even more.

[Larsson7]

Another winning night on this one....4 consecutive now. PROFIT OF 15.50 points.

SEASON TO DATE PROFIT ... 72.75 points.

Larsson7

[Larsson7]

[MattR]

This is proving very good. Do they set a maximum high they'll pay out on?

[Larsson7]

This is proving very good. Do they set a maximum high they'll pay out on?


Hi Matt.

Not sure on that one....I think some spread betting accounts set STOP limits at 50...wouldn't think that would be a factor in baseball.

This seasons HIGH to date would be Mets/Braves which went to 28...sadly for us , most against the Mets.

What I like about this system is the down side is so minimal....HIGHEST lines are always at Colorado...eg set at 14 last night, and eg 1-0 is the score..most unlikely in Colorado..most you will lose is 13 units..and that is the worst case scenario.

Wish I had started this on opening day , as profits would be even better than they currently show.

Wonder if anyone else on the forum is following these?

Al.

[MattR]

Hi Matt.

Not sure on that one....I think some spread betting accounts set STOP limits at 50...wouldn't think that would be a factor in baseball.

This seasons HIGH to date would be Mets/Braves which went to 28...sadly for us , most against the Mets.

What I like about this system is the down side is so minimal....HIGHEST lines are always at Colorado...eg set at 14 last night, and eg 1-0 is the score..most unlikely in Colorado..most you will lose is 13 units..and that is the worst case scenario.

Wish I had started this on opening day , as profits would be even better than they currently show.

Wonder if anyone else on the forum is following these?

Al.


Yeah, hopefully some other people are following too. Good point about the spread betting, it would be suicide to even consider going low on any game. Imagine going low on that Atlanta/Mets game. Frightening!
Ave runs scored so far per game is 10.28 so in a full programme you can expect 150 odd runs scored, so if the total spread lines add up to less than that there's a good chance of profit. (134 in 13 games last night - Ave 10.3)

[MattR]

Doing it again tonight, Al? Hope so. Cracking start with 21 in the bag!

[Larsson7]

This is proving very good. Do they set a maximum high they'll pay out on?


Not sure mate.....some spread bets have a win/loss max..but I really don't think it would be a factor in baseball. 20+ runs in a game as you will know , quite rare...

What I lik ehere is that the LOSS factor is quite low..as earlier post..12-13 points would be the MAX I would expect to lose in any single game.

Chi Cubs tonight...line was 12.5..HIGH for a non Colorado game..yields 21 runs-12.5 = 8.5 x 2 = nice 17 points PROFIT to total.

Al.

[MattR]

Not sure mate.....some spread bets have a win/loss max..but I really don't think it would be a factor in baseball. 20+ runs in a game as you will know , quite rare...

What I lik ehere is that the LOSS factor is quite low..as earlier post..12-13 points would be the MAX I would expect to lose in any single game.

Chi Cubs tonight...line was 12.5..HIGH for a non Colorado game..yields 21 runs-12.5 = 8.5 x 2 = nice 17 points PROFIT to total.

Al.


That's worth watching for, they definitely set Chicago's home games late in the day here, it has to be after they know what the wind is like there, as it effects the home runs so much.

[Larsson7]

..and bang goes 50% of this systems profit....38.00 point LOSS last night.

RUNNING PROFIT 34.75.

Larsson7

[MattR]

First real night of low scores pretty much all round. Still,like you sayat least you know before you start the maximum LOW loss you can get.

[MattR]

Al,

How's this one going now?

[Larsson7]

Hi Matt.

Going....like a lead balloon...about 70 points DOWN !!!!

Lot on just now, not around much mate. Will update on Friday.

Al.

[MattR]

Al,


Something that's now showing up as expected now there's a fair amount of stats in is the difference in runs per game between AL and NL with AL having the designated hitter instead of the pitcher batting. AL currently stands at 10.14 per game. NL at 9.64. So a full half run more per game in the AL.
This may help, maybe not!

Interesting when you break it down by division......

Ave runs per game..

AL EAST.........9.19
AL CENTRAL....11.77
AL WEST........9.30

NL EAST........7.30
NL CENTRAL...11.37
NL WEST.......9.86

[Larsson7]

Yeah good points as ever mate. Really wish I kept run spreads/bookies odds for last season now. As I said earlier today , convinced the lines are a good point higher all around as against last year.

Your systems are going great guns mate....fantatsic work on these bud.

Al.

[MattR]

Cheers Al, still waiting for the underdogs to have a bad day, could be today as there were a lot of favourites who I thought, yeah, they should win. Did you catch the Florida game at all, it was on freeview I think. Bench clearing punch up in the 2nd inning. LOL. Florida look good and I think I might have a little wager on them to win the world series or at least the NL Championship, they look good down the lineup and their pitching is very strong.


I'm sure you're right on the bookies, maybe they got stung a fair bit last season or maybe they've got someone new doing them even? Might be worth going low now! LOL.

Have you kept all the stats on the going blind on HIGH? Just wondering if you can compare it with those run totals by division and see if it's those teams who are causing the losses (except when mets play atlanta :) )

[Larsson7]

Cheers Al, still waiting for the underdogs to have a bad day, could be today as there were a lot of favourites who I thought, yeah, they should win. Did you catch the Florida game at all, it was on freeview I think. Bench clearing punch up in the 2nd inning. LOL. Florida look good and I think I might have a little wager on them to win the world series or at least the NL Championship, they look good down the lineup and their pitching is very strong.


I'm sure you're right on the bookies, maybe they got stung a fair bit last season or maybe they've got someone new doing them even? Might be worth going low now! LOL.

Have you kept all the stats on the going blind on HIGH? Just wondering if you can compare it with those run totals by division and see if it's those teams who are causing the losses (except when mets play atlanta :) )

Think the Mets are this seasons LA mate.....

Still think in the long run..remember its a 160 odd game season..and then play offs...HIGH is the way to go.

Lines deffo HIGHER than last year mate...Chicago case in point...still can't believe they had 13-15 as the line for those 2 Cubs home games.

Just a case of plotting everything we can stat wise...baseball is the game that invented statistics..or was it the other way round...whatever. Your systems are going great guns...We betwen us will crack this at some point...hey its only April..SERIES don't start till October.

Al.

[MattR]

Celtic have higher scores than the Mets :) If only we could go HIGH on Celtic!


Did you get chance to look at b365's extras - they call them props. Double result is the one I was looking at. The odds on offer must be able to be used somehow with what we know.

Favourites are winning tonight, so it's going to be interesting to see what it does to the Underdogs system.

[MattR]

Al,


You just know it's going to be a bad night for runs when Houston/Colorado is 2-1 in the 8th!! :rolleyes: Two really high scores everything else is looking like watching the football results!