33/1 only.

[horse]

Looking at this for a while and read the forum so thought i would post this.

Only back at 33/1 SP if horse has drifted out from 33/1 to say 25/1 no back the horse has to be 33/1 SP at the off.


All bets to be placed on Betfair.

2000 point bank used as strike rate is small.

1pt per bet


Odds on Betfair swing in region of 70.00 to 80.00 for 33/1 .


thats it simple .

[Workshy]

Can I confirm the rules horse? It has to be 33/1 SP and 70+ on the exchanges? Is it as simple as that? :)

Good luck, will need a good few months to get a feel for success, see you around :D

[bigcumba]

Interesting idea for a system Horse, welcome to the forum, and good luck with this - you may need it! I'll certainly be watching with interest - I reckon it'll be a bit of a slog but if you can turn a profit on this then I guess the drinks are on you! :)

[horse]

Some stats races of 3 to 30s


2003 // 3813 horses went off at 33/1 sp return was 68 winners

68 x 74.00 average on BF = 5032 + = 1219 = 23 pts per week.


Last month 478 races 8 winners ,8 x 74.00 = 592 = 114+ for month :)


Year to date

3018 races /56 winners ,56 x 74.00 = 4144 - = 1126 + = 9 months = 125.11 so far every month.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

My only worry about this type of thing is that it is almost impossible to predict that the 'off' price will be 33/1. Quite often, the horse is returned at a different price than 'last show' due to last second money (either for the selection or market moves for other horses).

The idea may be good in theory, but do you (for example) know how many of the 3018 qualifiers this year were actually available at 70+ on Betfair at the same time that 33/1 was the 'general' price.

I'm not trying to put you off, I'm hoping that you refine the system so that it has definitive rules.

[horse]

No i dont know how many went of at 70s + but will track this every day to see how market moves ect ,its the only way you can do it is to watch BF and see what you can get on the odds front.
There will be horses you will miss as SPs change right up until the off a horse can go from 25/1 to 33/1 in seconds and you will miss this ,so its a see how it goes system but the data stands out on this.

[Merlin]

Why dont you try and look at all horses at 33/1 in the sporting life tissue - will be much easier to operate, as you wont have to monitor prices, and watch the exchanges all day....

Good luck,
Merl.

[Win2Win]

33/1 shots generally fluctuate between 38.0-110.0 on the exchanges within the last 10 minutes.

I don't usually attach results in the non-members section, but I'll make an exception in this case.

The file contains the results for all the 33/1 shots for the last 18 years at the OFF. I also contains a few 50/1 shots due to the variable spread, but anyone with a spreadsheet can easily remove these.

In short, the system over 18 years for £1 stakes will show a £73,546.00 LOSS. Not really something I'd be interested in for backing, or laying. If you use the exchanges, being generous with a 100% overbet, at best you'll get a LOSS of £35,000, so it'll save you a BMW!!!!

Also a SR of less than 1% is very scary, a losing run of 200 wouldn't be 'frequent'!

Their are no variables to make this profitable, as 33/1 SP shots are well under valued by the bookies, and are more realistically 200/1. This is how Mr Bookie makes his money, by under valuing every horse.

[Steven Gerrard]

You also got to watch for the bookies horse scam. Noticed many, many times when watching the racing, a horse goes down a whole lot in price, but never wins or comes anywhere.

Today a horse back in from 33/1 to 8/1, not anywhere. It is trying to lure you to put money on it because you think it has a good chance because the amount it has been backed from. Its gone from 33/1 and it's 8/1 at the off, you think this horse looks a certainty. But it's not, because the bookies gets your money and your going to get nothing out of it.

Not to sure, might off been backed in from 33/1 to 8/1, but whatever it was it went down 10 points at least.

[Win2Win]

Highly unlikely to be a bookie 'scam', they don't need to do that, besides the exchanges have so much power they prevent this with an average these days of over £500,000 on Betfair alone.

Bookies on course, including the Big 3, seldom layoff more than a £2000-£3000 at the track to manipulate the odds, and this is only done on fancied runners, to adjust a small %, which in reality can save them thousands in the shops. Again however, this seldom happens now with the exchanges having so much control over the ring.

If a horse goes from 33/1 to 8/1 it will either be because;
1) The stable is having a touch
2) The price marked up is incorrect and the pro's are correcting it
3) The exchanges have forced the correction
4) The exchange bots have forced the price down

I backed a horse at 12.5/1 yesterday that won at 5/1, and so did the member's. This happens quite a often. Only 15% win, so that is potentially 85 'gambles' you'll see losing, but we make massive profits on the 15 winners.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

It also depends on which track and what day!

33/1 to 8/1 on a wet and windy Tuesday in Pontefract is likely to mean around £200 placed on the horse. Whereas on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day, a move of that nature would represent significant money (but still only the same percentages - and that is important to understand racing in general).

The TV has a lot to answer for - they point out these 'massive gambles' when in fact, it probably takes 10 times the amount to move a horse from 6/4 to 5/4.