One race to win £50

[carpetclean]

What do you folks think of this. I did it today and WON.

Pick one race with the shortest prices fav forecast. 1.50 warwick My Will today 4/11fc
Back this horse to win and lay all other horses up to 12/1 on Betfair to win £50.

Today I had 2x £10 lays and had £90 on My Will. Profit of £50 less a bit of commision on the lays. What do you think worth running for a while or total crap.

Any one want to put the selections up for say a week or two.

Paul

[carpetclean]

Just got my 2nd £50 in the 2.40 Party games 2/7 and one lay. £100 up nice start.

Paul

[podtog]

Would it not be best to just do the back Paul as if one of the lays wone you would lose twice.

[podtog]

It will be interesing to follow though.

[carpetclean]

Hi Potdog,

I am thinking of just doing the lays and not backing the odds ons. The sr on these very short 0/0 favs should be very high so we could even CLAIM back :yikes:


Paul

[podtog]

Yep that could be worth looking at, the shortest forcast fav and then look for what you think is the weakest under 10/1 or something along them lines.

[carpetclean]

I would lay ALL under 12/1 if they are not to far off the sp price.

Paul

[podtog]

Ill be watching Paul

[carpetclean]

3.20 is the race to play with today. Back Sporazene and lay all under 13 on Betfair/sporting options at the off. Looks like 2/3 lays at the mo.

Best of luck if you are playing.

Paul

[carpetclean]

Another little rule. The fav must NOT drift out before the off, on or under its forecast price.

Paul

[carpetclean]

Loss of £90 as I was unable to lay the winner. Lucky for me.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

I'd say this merits some more research before taking it much further. A couple of bad results could prove VERY costly.

Shortest priced fav of the day is a proven winner with the correct staking plan applied, but borderline when using level stakes. Adding the lays is double the pain when it fails and even though it boosts the profits when it comes off, it could still prove costly on the losing days.

[carpetclean]

Cheers Oldham,

What do you recon then with the staking then.

I am still £10 up after 3 days, so what I am going to do after a losing day is DOUBLE my returns to a max of £50. So I will aim for a £100 today and split this with the lays and the fav, if I lose I will do £150 tomorrow and so on until in profit and then go back to £50.

Todays race is the 2.15 NA say what you see 1/2. I recon there will only be one lay so if the fav stays at 1/2 or shorter I will have a go.

The sr on these favs will be around the 70% I think so all you need is BIG BALLS and of course a large bank :D

Any thoughts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Paul

[Win2Win]

The money maths don't work that way, when working with odds. This way of betting has been tried by 1000's before you and failed at some point. I used to run the shortist fav of the day system for free on here, and after a year it was around £8 in profit with £10 stakes, losing runs could hit '8' :yikes:

[carpetclean]

Did that include all shortest fav that drifted out. I recon it must stay the same or shorter or NO bet

Paul

[Win2Win]

It would all average out long term, as it would depend on how the market is working, and whether the price of the shortest horse is actually it's true price anyway.

A 1/8 shot got beat once on the system, that was backed, and yet RSB had it's price as 1/4, so it went off a false price, would that be a no bet as well? A 1/8 loser would be very costly.

[carpetclean]

I think you have got to have a lower limit with this. I could never bring myself to back a 1/8 shot even if it was running on its own.

I was thinking of only backing these if they had been placed LTO and had run with in 30 days Just messing about with this at the mo.

You could run it though RSB for me if you want. Male, placed, under 28days 1/2 fc 1/2 & under sp.

But then you are not gonna win £50 a day because the selections will dry up, so a bit of a non starter.

Back to the drawing board.

Paul

Paul

[Win2Win]

It had won LTO and was within 30 days. You can't pick and choose which qualifiers to do, unless you are 100% consistent. It is punters inconsistency that pays the bookies wages.

Only trying to help. :)

RSB will show a loss, if it was 1/5 or less it would show a small profit.

[carpetclean]

Had a mate send me this a minuta a go. Nice 80% SR but not many qualifers. Go to win £500 on each of these and claim back if you have the bank.

Not my cup of tea though.

Trainer : All Trainers
Jockey : All Jockeys
Sire : All Sires
Dam Sire: All Dam Sires

Years

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002


Variable Category

Odds, Forecast Price
< 1/2

Odds, Last Starting Price
<1/2

Position - last run
1st
2nd
3rd
4th

Race Type by Sex
others

Horse, Age in Years
3yo
4yo
5yo
6yo
7yo
8yo
9yo

Horse, Interval Time
last ran <4 days ago
last ran 4-7 days ago
last ran 8-15 days ago
last ran 16-31 days ago


YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

1991 0 0

1992 0 0

1993 9 11 81.82 0.81 7.36 13.08
1994 5 6 83.33 0.25 4.17 12.42
1995 6 10 60.00 -2.37 -23.70 -14.62
1996 5 6 83.33 0.11 1.83 0.00
1997 5 6 83.33 0.21 3.50 0.00
1998 8 9 88.89 0.92 10.22 8.77
1999 5 7 71.43 -0.45 -6.43 -24.71
2000 10 11 90.91 2.48 22.55 17.54
2001 11 13 84.62 1.74 13.38 15.38
2002 12 16 75.00 0.95 5.94 -3.91
____________________________________________________________

76 95 80.00 4.65 4.89 3.36

[Win2Win]

10 years to make 4.65 profit...EEK!! :yikes: A system that doesn't produce that a month isn't worth doing, and no matter what staking you use you'll struggle to get something decent out of it.

It's proven that systems 35% SR or under produce the best profits. The higher the SR the lower the profits.

[carpetclean]

I know what you are saying BUT 80% SR with a VERY agressive staking plan to say win £500 on every selection is the way to go with this. You would have to put VERY big bets on, but you would win if you had a BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG betting back. NOT FOR ME THOUGH.

[carpetclean]

Would of been a BIG loser today, but because the 1st & 2nd were so far in front of the others I just backed the FAV at £150 :anger 80%SR Will get it back soon. Just a loan to WHILL.

Not going to do the lays and backs in these races, just one or the other.

Keith has put me off this any way and as he does seem to know what he is doing. It is advice taken.

Will let you know when I play again. BACKING THAT IS.

Paul

[Win2Win]

I only wish TWM followed advice like the intelligent folk on here :laugh

[Win2Win]

Just to do the maths for readers here.

If you back a 1/8 shot to win £500, you have to back it with a £4000+ stake! So if it loses, you need to find at least 8 evens shots to get it back, but as the average odds of 80% are around 2/5-1/3 then you would need 16+ winners to recoup the loses, and more than likely will hit another loser before you've done that, digging a deeper financial hole....but what do I know :)

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Not much I can add to Keith's 'teachings'.

[carpetclean]

OK................but. I have found one for tomorrow

2.40 jack black 8/15 he he

Paul

[carpetclean]

No bet yesterday as it drifted out. None today. I will post any qualifers in the qualifers thread under 80% when I get some.

Be lucky.

Paul

[Win2Win]

Can't find where 'Be Lucky' is running :doh :)

[carpetclean]

:laugh :laugh