2nd Fave

[e55exboi]

Just wondering if anyones ever papertraded a forecast 2nd and 3rd favourite system in their time? Im trying it at the mo and its finding some good winners and loadsa 2nds. Using a filter also of selecting the shortest priced forecast 2nd and 3rd faves at each meeting is producing a profit at the mo.Sorry if in wrong thread for this

[Merlin]

Something like this is extremely unlikely to produce long term profits e55.....there is no sound basis other than a tissue fancied horse (2nd or 3rd fav)........besides this the parameters are too big.......you need to narrow it down a bit.....to certain races or summer months on turf for instance.....probably best to keep away from handicaps too........good luck......

[hayzee]

E55,
I think it's either down to having a heap big pile of RP's,or your daily muckraker,checking on a 'Stat' site,or having a reliable spreadsheet,you know,something that teenage boys only dream of.
The main difference between a 'system' and a 'method' I believe,is that a system usually relies on other peoples influence that you correlate into a pattern,ie;78 + Daily Mail Formcast,min 10 picks sel box/top Postdata RP,spotform Daily Mirror,(****,just made that up,could be a new winning system!!!)whereas a method is where you tend to apply your own research info,eg;formline evaluation,sire stats,going,trainer/jockey,draw bias,stable form,etc.
The difference of a sys/meth can be the edge of a fag paper,and of course the criiteria are all interchangeable,however I believe if you rely less on market forces,ie;f,f2, and other peoples judgement and create your own method,with a built in 15% failure rate due to the game being bent,in the long run......however long that is...you may be better off.
Anyhow as long as you're just papertrading it can be great fun,but please don't believe that even after 100 races show a good roi,that you can put the mortgage money on the next 100 races.
Sorry if this is all old hat to you,please excuse an old E55ex fart who's still learning.
hayzee.

[MarcusMel]

Racing Systems Builder RSB can help with that type of query and though not used by myself Raceform might be able to help too.

[icebreaker]

Well, Adrian Massey has a huge database on this. He has analyzed the 2nd and 3rd fav in every NH race from 1991 to date (over 50,000 races) and his results are as follows:

SECOND FAV --
Won .......21%
ROI.........87%

Placed ....49%
ROI (E/W) 89%



THIRD FAV --
Won .......14%
ROI..........84%

Placed........38%
ROI (E/W)...87%


So, there you have it ............. a consistent LSP loss year-on-year. Percentages are a little higher in non-handicaps but the LSP is still well in the red.
Hope this helps.

[MarcusMel]

Cheers Ice Beaker I had forgotten about Adrian's site.Ooo

[e55exboi]

Well, Adrian Massey has a huge database on this. He has analyzed the 2nd and 3rd fav in every NH race from 1991 to date (over 50,000 races) and his results are as follows:

SECOND FAV --
Won .......21%
ROI.........87%

Placed ....49%
ROI (E/W) 89%



THIRD FAV --
Won .......14%
ROI..........84%

Placed........38%
ROI (E/W)...87%


So, there you have it ............. a consistent LSP loss year-on-year. Percentages are a little higher in non-handicaps but the LSP is still well in the red.
Hope this helps.
I thought high ROI% was good?

[vegyjones]

100% is break even,

so anything less is a loss on these stats,

I think! :D

[Merlin]

Correct Veg......:yikes:

[vegyjones]

See how clever I am... more rep please! :laugh

[Steven Gerrard]

I tried it once yesterday, and it actually came up. Paid out a staggering £51.04. So this system can be profitable, but it's picking the right race you think it's going to happen at. But when doing it, wait till the off, since i learned the hard way yesterday. I had placed the 2nd and 3rd fav down and placed the bet. Anyway, when the bet was on the 4th fav became 3rd fav, and the original 3rd fav went to 4th, and the one that from 4th to 3rd was second and it came up, in all that switch if i had waited till the end of the race, and put it on, but nope. It didn't happen and the 3rd fav changed, and it paid out £51.04. So all in all, it's profitable if you pick the correct race. I normally would do it if the 2nd and 3rd fav are good prices otherwise wheres the profit if it is a 4 horse race, and it does come in, and only pays out £3 something. Those are the races to avoid.

I think thats what happened anyway, because i know i had the winner and the 3rd fav changed and thats what cost me.

[plater]

Just had a quick play with AM's database, 5* selections ignoring anything less than 3rd Jt Fav's(E.G. 4th Fav and above), at 14 Specific courses for the Flat and including the top three of his ratings(including Jt rated), and excluding maidens.
1997-2004
2461 Bets
305 Wins
12.4% SR
145.6% ROI (SP)

The only trouble is the problem stated above, how do you know if any of his rated horses will be included when the SP's are finalised, database does this after the event, but you have to decide before the OFF :doh

[Merlin]

I tried it once yesterday, and it actually came up. Paid out a staggering £51.04. So this system can be profitable, but it's picking the right race you think it's going to happen at. But when doing it, wait till the off, since i learned the hard way yesterday. I had placed the 2nd and 3rd fav down and placed the bet. Anyway, when the bet was on the 4th fav became 3rd fav, and the original 3rd fav went to 4th, and the one that from 4th to 3rd was second and it came up, in all that switch if i had waited till the end of the race, and put it on, but nope. It didn't happen and the 3rd fav changed, and it paid out £51.04. So all in all, it's profitable if you pick the correct race. I normally would do it if the 2nd and 3rd fav are good prices otherwise wheres the profit if it is a 4 horse race, and it does come in, and only pays out £3 something. Those are the races to avoid.

I think thats what happened anyway, because i know i had the winner and the 3rd fav changed and thats what cost me.


Thanks for that Steve.....great stuff....:yikes:

[icebreaker]

Hello plater,



The only trouble is the problem stated above, how do you know if any of his rated horses will be included when the SP's are finalised, database does this after the event, but you have to decide before the OFF :doh

A solution to this dilemma could be to pick those 5-star rated horses and setting an arbitrary price below which you will not bet. Say, for instance 5/1. After all, this 2nd,3rd, and 4th Fav concept is an ephemeral thing really, isn't it? If you back a winner at 10/1, you really don't give a damn whether it was a third or fourth favourite.

BTW, may I ask by what criteria you selected those specific 14 courses? I am interested in this ............ 'specially the 145% ROI.!!!! The low strike-rate of 12% is a bit of a worry, however.

Regards,
Ice.

[plater]

BTW, may I ask by what criteria you selected those specific 14 courses? I am interested in this ............ 'specially the 145% ROI.!!!! The low strike-rate of 12% is a bit of a worry, however.

Regards,
Ice.

Ice,

Courses If you are familiar with Adrians database then it's simple, first thing I looked at was what courses where the fav's not profitable.

In answer to your 5/1 question I ran that through for the Fav - 3rd inc Jt's at 5/1> SP

1997 - 2004
1385 Bets @ 5/1+
173 Wins
12.5% SR
89.0% ROI :yikes:

Methinks I had the correct filters :D

The database is a great FREE tool but not as powerful as RSB (IF you know how to use it) and have a knowledge of the racing game, ratings alone be it OR / Massey / Timeform Etc !!.

How many times I have seen a top rated Nag in the paddock looking like Blackpool Beaches finest :rolleyes:

[icebreaker]

Thanks for that, plater,
An excellent reply re the 5/1's

Yes, I have quite a high regard for AM's ratings and his database work although by no means do I follow the ratings systematically......... preferring to go on my own reading of form when making selections and then perhaps having a look at the rating for the selection as a kind of final justification for having (or not having as the case may be) a bet. However, there are occasions when I do go strictly by Adrian's ratings and that is when I'm LAYING a favourite ........... won't go into the details of that here.



How many times I have seen a top rated Nag in the paddock looking like Blackpool Beaches finest :rolleyes:
Yes....... I can identify with that!!! When-oh-when will racing weights be compulsory published to the betting public (like greyhounds and U>S. racing). Only when the will to do so by the J.Club is there so the answer is probably the "twelfth of Never". It's the only solution for the stay-at-home punter.

[hayzee]

Isn't it truly amazing.
Years ago it took weeks,if not months to find out how wrong you were.
Not now,with all this modern technology,you can find out in a matter of minutes.
hayzee.

[susanwells]

a tipster called Ian Galbraith has a 2nd favs to win in selected races system he is always sending me stuff about....among all the others who send their amazing never-failed-yet systems for only 100 a day...
but the latest fav. to push is arbing which everyone seems to thi k they invented.. or rather, that we will BELIEVE they invented.
How many tipsters have ever looked at W2W i WONDER... :hearty

[GLENCROFT]

I use a 2nd faves system which in 2004 produced 77 wins from 311 runs

Level stakes +9.55 points
10% of bank restart each month +83.884 pts

so far in 2005 12 wins from 39 runners

level stakes +12.475 points
10% of bank restart each month +6.522 points

take Daily Express 'best race for favourites' and back the 2nd favourite

[mathare]

10% of bank restart each month :yikes:

That's a very high % staking

[GLENCROFT]

Can adjust that according to your wallet !

Ive found that using 10% produces some really good months whereas in a losing month you know that you cannot lose more than you initial bank.

eg start with say £50 , £5 on first day.
if it loses than next day £4.50 (10% of £45)
if it wins at say 4/1 bank is now £70 and bet on day 2 is £7

etc - at least you know you cannot lose more than £50 if even if they all lose in a month!

[Stewards enquiry]

Hi Glencroft

Do you use all the races in the Daily Express. Sometimes 3 or more. I ask because of the small number of races you back in.

[MarcusMel]

I'm guessing but I think you would have ended up with more money if you used 4% of the bank than 10%.

[GLENCROFT]

Best day ever today 3 winners from 3 runs

1.55 WOL 3/1
2.25 WOL 3/1
3.35 WOL 4/1

The good news - I backed them all

The bad news - the idea flashed through my head this morning 'why not have a treble' - didnt bother - 79/1 treble missed (if my maths is right)

Should pay for her indoors flowers on Monday !

[Stewards enquiry]

GLENCROFT

I take then you bet in every race in the Express??

[GLENCROFT]

Stewards enquiry ,

No just the race with the top% of winning favourites.

Most days it is 1 but occasionally like last friday 11/2 there were 3

Saturday as Ayr was cancelled there were 4

Newb 1.20 WON 5/2JF
Ling 4.25 WON 9/4
Wol 8.00 WON 9/2J2F
Wol 9.30 LOST 2/1

Sunday

Here 2.30 WON 3/1J2F

I wll run through my past result sto see if using 4% of bank proves more
profitable

Glen

[Stewards enquiry]

Thanks for the reply Glen.

[GLENCROFT]

10% definitely produces more profit.

Yesterday 6/1 winner 4.50 @ Folke

Feb was easily the best month last year and this year is producing a nice profit again with 8 wins from last 10 runs - easily my best ever winning sequence.

Alternatively backing the 2nd fave when the fave is odds on since Aug 2003 has
produced 71 wins from 173 runs = £527.20 profit for a £10 level stake

[GLENCROFT]

Update :-

now in profit for 6 months on the row

Nov 04 +12.52 pts
Dec 04 +10.492 pts
Jan 05 +8.43 pts
Feb 05 +29.296 pts
Mar 05 +6.837
Apr 05 +5.92 pts

Overall since 01/01/04 + 134.367 points with 9 winning months and 7 losing months

[MarcusMel]

Is this using the odds on betfair? or to SP

[GLENCROFT]

Is this using the odds on betfair? or to SP
That is SP

[GLENCROFT]

8/1 winner on saturday
6/1 today

looking like the 7th consecutive winning month