Gogga's Horse System 2 - UK

[gogga]

Rules for system 2. Please feel free to adapt for own system.

Rule 1: Selection of Jockey

This is the tricky bit...to select the correct jockey.

The idea is to look at the horse form and speedrating of all the horses a specific jockey/s rides per day.
The jockey could be the top jockey with the highest strike rate per season, last 2 weeks, 7 days or at a specific track. Sporting life on line give statistics of jockeys strike rate over the season, last 14 days and last 7 days(This can include apprentices cos they also win races...as long as rule 2 and 3 are met.)

Rule 2: Horse Form

The idea is to look at all the horses the chosen jockey ride that day.
One or two horses will stand out because of its form in the last 3 races or its improvement in form for example from 7th to 2nd. Both can become qualifiers as long as it meets the third rule.

Rule 3: Speedrating

A horse must have the highest speed rating or biggest improvement in speed rating in its last race.

The racingpost on line gives the speedrating, as a number, of the horses in all their previous races in the righthand task bar.
Dont use the summary below the racecard, as this only gives the highest speed rating of the horse which might have been in the previous season

[bigcumba]

Many thanks for posting the rules to this one Gogga, I think a few folk on here have been following these as they've been doing pretty well and this gives them the chance to try out any modified versions of the basic system. :)

[gogga]

No problems Big C. I would appreciate it if folkes on here would let me know of any trends that stand out or they notice, so that we can improve this sytem to make it more successful. :D and beat the bookies every day!! :wiggle:

[e55exboi]

Well im already trying a system based on yours and today its picked littleton zephir 7/1 and russian symphony 8/1. But u say top speed rating is in right hand taskbar? On the race card itself the right hand column is OR i think thats official rating. Looking at the horses last race theres 3 righthand columns, OR, TS and RPR. If your taking the TS figure from the horses last race then Clare Galway wasnt the highest, and if your taking the TS figure from below the racecard then she still wasnt highest..? Single Track Mind 10/1 winner was also highest TS in its race, however no form or jockey meant it wasnt qualifier.
Anyway, ive based mine on the TS column below the card, it might be the horses highest ever speed but that allows for more outsiders to win (in theory), form for last 3 races no matter where or when it was, and jockey in last 14 days record. Il keep paper trading for a bit, no doubt it will sink fast after todays small success lol

[gogga]

Hi E55. Thanks for the reply.

The topspeed that I am refering to is in the righthand taskbar under the heading Analysis. Just above Course Details.

Under the taskbar they also give TS, RPR and official ratings. I have used the TS before under the race up to the 6th December(points profit around 29 at that stage) and switched to the TS under the analysis. My qualifiers are based on the TS in the analysis bar, which is slightly different.

You might have a very valid point there about outsiders as Jockeys are riding according to instructions from trainers. Trainers might feel that a horse is not ready to win yet and the TS from their previous race might not be a true reflection of their speed rating.

Racing post use the TS from a horse during the season in their analysis of the race under the forecast price, which may show what a horse is capable of.

[e55exboi]

Aah i never spotted that one before. Theres loadsa top speed stats there! U could do it a number of ways. U cud take the top speed of the course, the last race top speed, last 12 months, the going alsorts. But i still dont see how Clare Galway was a selection when she wasnt the highest rating in her last race, the winner Littleton Zephir was, who had form, and a jockey out of the last 14 days table?

[e55exboi]

Forget that last post, i get how ya work it more now. The main difference in wot im trying is where yours is first based on the top jockey of the race and then his mount has to be top speed or dramatic improver, mine is based on top speed rating first, and then horses have to A top jockey on, not THE top jockey. So with that in mind theres probly more scope for failure in wot im trying but we'll see. Plus my way can produce multiple horses per race so maybe il figure some filters if that becomes a problem. Il still back your selections and hopefully we'll get some overdue winners soon. :)

[gogga]

Sorry only saw your post now. No probs. I have played with the system before and have noticed that the top jockeys tend to at least win 1 race per day or 1 every second day. Its just difficult to try and find that damn race. :censored: They sometimes win 2 or 3 races the same day...Murphy and Detorri style.

I decided on rule 3 cos statistically I hope the horse with the highest speed rating or improvement in speedrating must be the one :D that will win, but it doesn,t work like that in the real world. Horses also have their off days,I suppose.

I might invest in a crystal ball instead :yikes:

I saw today that a few horses with the highest speedrating in a race actually won that race with shitty jockeys on board..well they cant be that shitty if they win :D

Some horses with highest speedrating and a top jockey on board is unplaced :bangb

I am sure you will figure something out with the system you are trying because your other system is pukka mate

[Workshy]

Hi Gogga, going great guns mate and I'm very interested to read your rules mate.

All I will add (for now) is that Keith (despite having a Jockey/Trainer System :doh :laugh ) actually tells us that the quality of jockey doesnt make as much difference as we might think, generally, the 'better' jocks ride better nags. Wouldnt take that too strictly but some food for thought.

[gogga]

Thanks Workshy

[e55exboi]

My trial system wasnt made up by myself. I bought it. For a masive £5.95. Well the filtered version anyway. Due to sod all selections turning up i merely slackened off the rules a bit :wiggle:

[gogga]

As long as you keep on posting winners..E55..