True odds.

[Stewards enquiry]

If you back two selections 8/15 and 11/4 does anybody know a formula to fine the true odds for similar bets. I would guess in this case it is about 1/9 but there must be a formula.Anyone help please.
Thanks.

[MarcusMel]

Not quite sure what you are asking.

[Stewards enquiry]

Hi Marcus

You hear a lot about the first two favourites prices being coupled would show the true odds if one won. It was the formula how to find those odds I was looking for.
Thanks.

[MarcusMel]

If you take a peek at the Adrian Massey web site you will find lots of statistics on percentage of wins to runs.

In order to work out the percentage the bookies odds represent for a race (fractional) of A-B you work out B/(A+B) and multiply that by 100 to see it as a percentage. You then add these percentages up to see if they match the past percentages.

[silax]

pm me if your e-mail addy if you want a calculator for doing multiple bets

[Stewards enquiry]

I don't think I am making myself clear. Say the fav. is 6/4 and the second fav. is 2/1 what are the odds you get of either one of them winning. Its not 6/4 or 2/1. I know how to work out multiple bets with runners in different races I am trying to find the formula to show what the true odds would be if you backed both selections in this example in the same race. 4/5? 4/6? and what is the formula for working it out. You often hear big Mac tell you what the true odds are of you getting the winner if you back two against the field.

[plater]

To win £1 whichever wins you would need to stake
£1.5 @ 6/4 Returns £3.75
£1.25 @2/1 Returns £3.75

£3.75 Returned - £2.75 Staked = £1 profit
1/3.75 would be my guess :doh (1.27 decimal)

[plater]

The above is not nessasarily the TRUE odds, this is just my workings on the odds, the true odds for the race may differ, the bookies may be offering lower prices than the horses chances (Overround).

[Stewards enquiry]

Thanks for the replies.

[borealis]

Hi Stewards Enquiry,

In the case of two horses, one at 6/4 and the other at 2/1, I do a simple calculation for ease of use on-course.

Add 6 to 4 =10, and 4/10 of 100% = 40%

Add 2 to 1 = 3, and 1/3 of 100% = 33% approx.

Add the two % together = 73% or 0.73

This equates to approx 8/11 (0.727...)

This is the odds of either horse winning.

Hope this helps.

[MarcusMel]

Thanks borealis - thats what I thought I said :D oh well should be clearer with the example.

The only thing is that you can only 'see' the True Odds in relation to lots of past data and hoping that there is no radical change in the future from past data. The true odds for an individual race before the start is based upon the results of past data and only the next 100 or more races will tell you the odds have remained the same.

So I wonder if the term True Odds is being abused or skewd from the statistical meaning:doh

[Stewards enquiry]

Thanks again for the replies.