in-running, odd's on

[presto]

did someone mention in-running :yikes:

everyone knows that betting in-running is highly volitile, but recently i have been looking at in-running more carefully, and it astonishes me how low the odd's can go on a horse and it actually loses, also in some races several horses can go odd's on. and as we know if you can lay 2 horses at odd's on then you are guaranteed profit.

this got me thinking if it would be profitable to lay every horse in every race at odd's on. note: void all races where a horse start's odd's on

i picked up somewhere that it is profitable to lay all 1.01 as the true price was 1.0125 but is this the optimum price to lay at? i wouldn't be sure, and the long losing runs an tiny ROI dosn't appeal that much.

i would like to take a look at betfair's API (i think there is a list of results somewhere) and see what the outcome would be to lay every horse @ 1.8 for example. in fact every price between 1.01 and 1,98. and see if the idea of laying in running was profitable.

if it is then onto :
step 2: - getting the bet's on.
i don't fancy waiting for a race to go in-running then laying 1.6 X 10 horses. so back to API (betfair's bot program) could i get it to auto bet for me? can anyone of the programmers (advertised by BF) come up with a solution? i think this would be possible as everytime a race goes in-running 1.01 / 1.03 etc... pops-up for every horse.

.............................................................
warning:
this is just an idea, i have no evidence / records to back-up my hypothesis, i am just curious.

any comment's / ideas welcome.

[bigcumba]

if it is then onto :
step 2: - getting the bet's on.
i don't fancy waiting for a race to go in-running then laying 1.6 X 10 horses.

That bit's more straightforward than you think - there is the 'Lay All' button - click that, adjust all the odds to whatever you want before the race starts, and place the bet immediately afterwards? I just tried it on the 335 - cost me £1.50 :yikes: but at least you know it can be done

[icebreaker]

Hello presto,

Let me disabuse you of this idea right away, mate. It doesn't work. Offering a LAY of 1.01 on every horse will 99% of the time result in you not getting a match(a bet) at all. Someone, who is watching the race in real-time will already have put up 1.05/1.10 etc and it will have been taken and the market emptied as a consequence. For your 1.01 to be taken it will most likely mean that the horse has already crossed the line in front. (Keep in mind the on-course shrewd's,( bookies etc,) are usually two seconds ahead of your televised feed). Pricing up every horse in a race at 1.01 Might result in you getting a "result" but it'll happen once in a million. Most likely you'll be paying out.

Yes, I use the API but I'm beginning to wonder if it is worth the cost. Would recommend Autobet tho', a good tool to limit any potential losses on a trade.

Regards,
Ice.

[presto]

ice - i do realise that on course / SIS etc do have a real advantage in seeing the race in real-time, rather than delayed. but that would have no affect on what i propose as i would be blanket laying the field before the race.

as for the 1.01 - i only used this as an example, and i myself am highly sceptical as too the actual ROI and effectiveness of this type of laying.

but i would like to find out about other odd's like laying the field @ 1.10 or 1.20 even upto 1.90 to see if there is any profit in it.

big c - thanks for that, just unfortunate you didn't try one of the other races before that as one went to 1.03 and lost. i would however prefere to spend 10 mins in the morning laying 1.20 (for example) in every race and having the bets turned in-running at the off. i think that this could be implemented by betfair, and it seem's that there is a demand for it. (i stumbled accross this on the BF forum)

I can't believe it would take Betfair more than a day or two to develop the following;

When placing a bet, have a check box which says "Do you want this bet to remain on the market if unmatched when turned in-play". This would be an ADDED OPTION and would not be the default

*People can then choose this if they so wish.
*It will allow people to leave up covering positions without having to be in front of a computer when the market turns in-play
*It will greatly increase in-play liquidity from the start
*It will greatly increase Betfair's commission (I would play more markets before the start)
*Its another feature that bookies don’t have

There are so many reasons why it’s a good idea, the only reason I can think of that Betfair won't do it is that they don't think there is the demand

So please sign below if you would use it. Not just if you think its a good idea, but IF YOU WOULD ACTUALLY MAKE USE OF SUCH A FEATURE. I will then send the completed petition to Betfair

Please do not post comments, just sign your name to support it. It can be discussed on other threads if required (BETFAIR WISH LIST FOR 2005)

Thanks

[bigcumba]

Hell, that's an excellent idea Presto - that means there is at least one intelligent life form on the Betfair forum! :D (apart from yourself of course :wink )

[vegyjones]

Ideal races would be where the winner comes
from behind late on.

Or handicap races where there are perhaps
more than 1 horse going towards the line at once...

Obviously you don't know this until the
race has finished though...

More detail on how many times a day this happens
and in what sort of races it occurs
would be a good idea!

[presto]

don't worry bigC it was only one of my weekly reads, never posted before.

that's what i am after vegy, i have had the idea for a while but have only just started looking more closely recently. i did notice today that many horses went odd's on and lost (just in races i had bets in). lots went to 1.8 a few 1.5 a 1.16 and a 1.03

i didn't look at what kind of races they were, but i have noticed that in many NH races 2.4miles+ quite a few horses have gone to <1.15 with quite a few fences left to jump. they may have had a big lead but a mistake on one of the fences could be costly.

also the short 5 / 6F races could be quite promising as quite a few horses cross the line together.

[mathare]

You'd need to look at the lowest price traded for those sorts of races though, not just the lowest prices available.

I have seen horses go to <1.1 and lose but how much was traded at those odds I have no idea.

[sportingprofit]

You would lose on every bet 99.99% of the time as the winner always goes to 1.01.

So if you layed for instance at 1.1 for every bet to £10 liability, you'd win £100 if you were successful -£10 so max win would be £90.

So even if you layed at 1.1 (it's really 9/2), so you would have to win twice every 9 races.

I don't see many races where two horses odds drop to 1.1 that often.

It may work at lower odds but I find it unlikely.

Hope that made sense to you :)

[MarcusMel]

Its a good way to arb with odds on horses of about 1.6
Back beforthe off and lay in running at about 1.1 the problem is getting the bets matched. Would be nice to have robot software to keep track and react for you - Hey while were about it give it a little bit of artificial inteligence too!