craghopper
21st January 2005, 15:40
Just wondering if some of the wise old heads of the board could advise me about staking.
I'm struggling to get my head around what is the best staking strategy. With level stakes you know exactly where you are and how much to stake. But would you really back a 50/1 shot the same as a odds on jolly?
No? Then that brings us to the next approach - decrease the stake in proportion to the increase in the price.
But then I have seen some people advise the opposite, especially with systems where every selection is deemed to have the same chance regardless of odds. This is something I call SP staking (I don't know if this is its real name or if indeed it has one!). This works by increasing the stake in proportion to the odds. For example, at evens you bet 1 point at 2/1 you bet two points, at 7/2 you bet 3.5 points etc. The idea seems to be that you capitalise on the bigger wins.
All these apparently contradictory approaches have left me not knowing what to do. Please help!
I also have some questions about each way staking and dutching staking:
It seems to me that a sliding scale should be used when betting on a horse to both place and win. My reasoning is this: a horse at 5/1 has a much greater chance of winning (statistically speaking) than a 25/1 shot. So a split stake bet to win and place should reflect these different probabilities. Just doing an automatic 1pt each way as a matter of course would seem illogical. Some sort of proportional approach would seem to be needed. Does anyone know of such a thing or how to go about devising one? I can imagine it would take the form of a table of odds and stakes or a basic calculator program.
I have a similar query regarding stakes for dutching. Rather than backing each of the horses with the same stake it would seem to make more sense to back them in proportion to their odds as this, in the long-term, best reflects their chance of winning. For example, you may want to back one horse at 3/1 and one at 7/1. Dutching would suggest that you should split your stake into 2/3 and 1/3 to secure the same return. But is there a way of staking that reflects the expected chance of winning as reflected by the odds?
Any advice would be welcome to stop my brain from hurting!
Cheers,
Craggy
I'm struggling to get my head around what is the best staking strategy. With level stakes you know exactly where you are and how much to stake. But would you really back a 50/1 shot the same as a odds on jolly?
No? Then that brings us to the next approach - decrease the stake in proportion to the increase in the price.
But then I have seen some people advise the opposite, especially with systems where every selection is deemed to have the same chance regardless of odds. This is something I call SP staking (I don't know if this is its real name or if indeed it has one!). This works by increasing the stake in proportion to the odds. For example, at evens you bet 1 point at 2/1 you bet two points, at 7/2 you bet 3.5 points etc. The idea seems to be that you capitalise on the bigger wins.
All these apparently contradictory approaches have left me not knowing what to do. Please help!
I also have some questions about each way staking and dutching staking:
It seems to me that a sliding scale should be used when betting on a horse to both place and win. My reasoning is this: a horse at 5/1 has a much greater chance of winning (statistically speaking) than a 25/1 shot. So a split stake bet to win and place should reflect these different probabilities. Just doing an automatic 1pt each way as a matter of course would seem illogical. Some sort of proportional approach would seem to be needed. Does anyone know of such a thing or how to go about devising one? I can imagine it would take the form of a table of odds and stakes or a basic calculator program.
I have a similar query regarding stakes for dutching. Rather than backing each of the horses with the same stake it would seem to make more sense to back them in proportion to their odds as this, in the long-term, best reflects their chance of winning. For example, you may want to back one horse at 3/1 and one at 7/1. Dutching would suggest that you should split your stake into 2/3 and 1/3 to secure the same return. But is there a way of staking that reflects the expected chance of winning as reflected by the odds?
Any advice would be welcome to stop my brain from hurting!
Cheers,
Craggy