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peza2605
5th April 2005, 08:25
hello

as some of you may know i have a "system" :D running in the daily diary section.

theb odds are used are the ones i get at betdaq around 8.30am cos i need sleep.

shouls i take th odds or put some odds of my own say a point more? or do the odds not drift that much when backing?

or should i do this only in certain price ranges?

any help appreciated

peza
MarcusMel
5th April 2005, 09:58
Tricky. Any system is one that finds selections with average winning Odds greater than the the selection strike rate (and costs e.g commission, and betting tax when that existed)

The problem is that if you ignor certain prices do you still have the same strike rate and average winning odds? Only doing by doing this for real is it possible to find out. However the strategy you use must be consistant for at least 3 months or more, depending on the number selections.
mathare
5th April 2005, 10:02
If this is just a papertrade Peza can you not just use SP and add on either a fixed percentage for all prices or vary the additional percentage according to the SP?
peza2605
5th April 2005, 10:17
im using money on it, over the years ive paper traded it you have some VERY good runs then the usual bad run but i was hoping with the exchangees id get better oddsto help cope with losing runs more.

so far ive had two double figure winners better than sp,but when it gets to 4/1 or less its about even.

its the shorter prices which im unsure what to do with.
icebreaker
5th April 2005, 16:20
The only guaranteed solution to this is to start calculating your own "tissue", but that is a science in itself only perfected over experience and time.

The short-term way-out is to request a price a "tick" lower than the odds available on the Lay side. These LAY-side odds on Betdaq will invariably be around 10% better than on the BACK-side (eg, 4.7 for Lay and 4/1 for Back). The over-round on the LAY-side at that time of the morning is usually in the 94% range so you are getting value at that percent. And, you will get matched.
peza2605
5th April 2005, 16:58
after todays results it dont matter ALL lost :D , ill try that icebreaker ta