e55exboi
13th April 2005, 16:11
After running the systems through excel spreadsheets I though I'd put my findings in the free section of the forum maybe to help those non members make a decision on which systems are for them, the exact kind of figures I would love to have had before blowing most of my starting bank, but c'est la vie.
Now the strange thing about these figures is they totally dont match upto the 10 year results page, but that's where Ive got them from, simply saving results in .txt form then pasting them to excel using mathare's V2.12. One conclusion I can draw is that excel mostly finds much better results than the web page has itself.
Before posting the results for every systems Im gonna firstly just put Vet Nh on here to see if people think Ive buggered my maths completely and to say so, so I can rectify things early. Here we go...last 5 yrs btw...
VET NH
1999
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES FROM WEB PAGE: 218 winners from 695 selections.... 31% sr......13.43Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON:230 winners from 642 selections (more winners less selections :doh )...35% sr.....108Lsp...longest losing run 20
£100 bank start
1% Max=£341...Min=£100....Final=£265....165% bank increase
2% Max=£1043...Min=£100...Final=£570....470%
3% Max=£2889...Min=£100...Final=£1004....904%
4% Max=£7282...Min=£100...Final=£1464...1364%
2000
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES:163/532....30% sr....10Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON: 213/657....32% sr....71Lsp...LLR=12...LWR=5
1% Max=£208...Min=£90....Final=£184...84% increase
2% Max=£363...Min=£82...Final=£274...174%
3% Max=£539...Min=£78...Final=£336...236%
4% Max=£684...Min=£67...Final=£341...241%
2001
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES: 225/630...35% sr....166Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON: 184/572...32% sr...33Lsp...LLR=13...LWR=5
1% Max=£128...Min=£72...Final=£128...28% increase
2% Max=£138...Min=£49...Final=£138...38%
3% Max=£128...Min=£32...Final=£128...28%
4% Max=£109...Min=£19...Final=£101...1% Ooo
2002
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES: 224/610...36% sr...74Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON:238/613 (closest yet)...188Lsp :doh....LLR=12...LWR=5
1% Max=£600...Min=£99...Final=£587...487% increase
2% Max=£2902...Min=£98...final=£2768...2668%
3% Max=Too high for excel to register, Im not sure but I think it doesnt register anything over £100k :yikes: ...Min=£97...Final=£10,624...but on evidence of final bank that would mean you'd lost £90k so cant be right
4% Max=TOo high again...Min=£96...Final=£33,549...33,449%
2003
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES: 158/497...31% sr...32Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON: 177/528...33% sr...43Lsp...LLR=14..LWR=5
1% Max=£142...Min=£69...Final=£142...42% increase
2% Max=£172...Min=£44...Final=£172...72%
3% Max=£180...Min=£27...Final=£180...80%
4% Max=£163...Min=£16...Final=£163...63%
AVERAGES (all averaged over last 5 yrs)
CLAIMED: 197/592....33%...59Lsp
EXCEL: 208/602....34%....88Lsp....LLR=14...LWR=5
Averages are made to look good by a strangely unaverage 2002.
I think Im right in saying you can calculate the % increases to see what your bank would be after 2 or 3 years. Eg you start with £100 in 2000 staking at 2%. End of 2000 would see your bank at £274 after the whole year, now going into 2001 the 2% staking % increase for that year is 38% so £274 devided by 100 multiply by the 38(%) add the £274 bank again making the bank now £378 after 2 years, Im not sure bout that maths so someone say (if theyre bothered by all this).
You can see it's pot luck as to how the system will go through each year, those 2 example years sees a naff increase but get a lucky year like 2002 and your laughing.
One thing to add, and all of this is my opinion only, it's not pure fact, before I get done for slander or something is that as regards staking %, one thing this analysis doesnt show is the statistically bad runs in the first 6 months of the year, so although the worst year here 2001 sees your bank recover from as low as £32 staking at 3% back upto £128, I would say its wise to stake to 1% or even less in until June or possibly May and then stake to 3% or 4% as the latter half of the year shows by far the best results, again just my opinion.
Now the strange thing about these figures is they totally dont match upto the 10 year results page, but that's where Ive got them from, simply saving results in .txt form then pasting them to excel using mathare's V2.12. One conclusion I can draw is that excel mostly finds much better results than the web page has itself.
Before posting the results for every systems Im gonna firstly just put Vet Nh on here to see if people think Ive buggered my maths completely and to say so, so I can rectify things early. Here we go...last 5 yrs btw...
VET NH
1999
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES FROM WEB PAGE: 218 winners from 695 selections.... 31% sr......13.43Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON:230 winners from 642 selections (more winners less selections :doh )...35% sr.....108Lsp...longest losing run 20
£100 bank start
1% Max=£341...Min=£100....Final=£265....165% bank increase
2% Max=£1043...Min=£100...Final=£570....470%
3% Max=£2889...Min=£100...Final=£1004....904%
4% Max=£7282...Min=£100...Final=£1464...1364%
2000
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES:163/532....30% sr....10Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON: 213/657....32% sr....71Lsp...LLR=12...LWR=5
1% Max=£208...Min=£90....Final=£184...84% increase
2% Max=£363...Min=£82...Final=£274...174%
3% Max=£539...Min=£78...Final=£336...236%
4% Max=£684...Min=£67...Final=£341...241%
2001
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES: 225/630...35% sr....166Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON: 184/572...32% sr...33Lsp...LLR=13...LWR=5
1% Max=£128...Min=£72...Final=£128...28% increase
2% Max=£138...Min=£49...Final=£138...38%
3% Max=£128...Min=£32...Final=£128...28%
4% Max=£109...Min=£19...Final=£101...1% Ooo
2002
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES: 224/610...36% sr...74Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON:238/613 (closest yet)...188Lsp :doh....LLR=12...LWR=5
1% Max=£600...Min=£99...Final=£587...487% increase
2% Max=£2902...Min=£98...final=£2768...2668%
3% Max=Too high for excel to register, Im not sure but I think it doesnt register anything over £100k :yikes: ...Min=£97...Final=£10,624...but on evidence of final bank that would mean you'd lost £90k so cant be right
4% Max=TOo high again...Min=£96...Final=£33,549...33,449%
2003
CLAIMED RSB FIGURES: 158/497...31% sr...32Lsp
EXCEL COMPARISON: 177/528...33% sr...43Lsp...LLR=14..LWR=5
1% Max=£142...Min=£69...Final=£142...42% increase
2% Max=£172...Min=£44...Final=£172...72%
3% Max=£180...Min=£27...Final=£180...80%
4% Max=£163...Min=£16...Final=£163...63%
AVERAGES (all averaged over last 5 yrs)
CLAIMED: 197/592....33%...59Lsp
EXCEL: 208/602....34%....88Lsp....LLR=14...LWR=5
Averages are made to look good by a strangely unaverage 2002.
I think Im right in saying you can calculate the % increases to see what your bank would be after 2 or 3 years. Eg you start with £100 in 2000 staking at 2%. End of 2000 would see your bank at £274 after the whole year, now going into 2001 the 2% staking % increase for that year is 38% so £274 devided by 100 multiply by the 38(%) add the £274 bank again making the bank now £378 after 2 years, Im not sure bout that maths so someone say (if theyre bothered by all this).
You can see it's pot luck as to how the system will go through each year, those 2 example years sees a naff increase but get a lucky year like 2002 and your laughing.
One thing to add, and all of this is my opinion only, it's not pure fact, before I get done for slander or something is that as regards staking %, one thing this analysis doesnt show is the statistically bad runs in the first 6 months of the year, so although the worst year here 2001 sees your bank recover from as low as £32 staking at 3% back upto £128, I would say its wise to stake to 1% or even less in until June or possibly May and then stake to 3% or 4% as the latter half of the year shows by far the best results, again just my opinion.