mathare
19th April 2005, 22:45
This is going to be stating the obvious to start with and is intended to carry on from the analysis at the end of my mythical challenge thread (http://www.win2winracing.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26351).
I will use the data that formed the £100 mythical challenge selections ie from 5th March to 16th April.
I was using a starting bank of £1000, staking £10 per lay on anything up to 16/1 and settling each bet individually, with 0% commission and using SP for settlement. The idea is to establish whether this very profitable "system" under those conditions can be made profitable under normal conditions ie using exchange prices and applying commission.
For a system to be profitable the winning bets must make more money that the losing bets cost us. Hey - I did say this would be stating the obvious to start with.
The strike rate for this data is 2662/3074 = 86.60%
The final bank balance was £5224.16 for a profit of £4224.16
That means the winning bets made me £26620 and the losing bets cost me
£26620 - £4224.16 = £22395.84
There were 2662 winning bets out of 3074 which means there must have been 412 losing bets.
That means I lost £54.36 on an average losing bet. This equates to Betfair odds of 6.436 which I will round to 6.4 for ease.
Suppose we add on 20% as the exchange margin over SP, this gives us 6.4*1.2 = 7.68 (or 7.72 if we use the exact figures so let's just call it 7.7 and have done with it).
412 losing bets at 7.7 will cost me 412*67 = £27604
Subtract this from the amount made from the winning bets and we get £26620 - £27604 = -£984 ie the £1000 will end up as £16 if we stake as I did previously and assume a 20% margin on all the prices.
I think therefore it is safe to say that that is not the best way to go about things? So what is?
At the minute the best thing for me to do is to go to bed as I'm knackered. But I shall return with more analysis tomorrow all being well.
I will use the data that formed the £100 mythical challenge selections ie from 5th March to 16th April.
I was using a starting bank of £1000, staking £10 per lay on anything up to 16/1 and settling each bet individually, with 0% commission and using SP for settlement. The idea is to establish whether this very profitable "system" under those conditions can be made profitable under normal conditions ie using exchange prices and applying commission.
For a system to be profitable the winning bets must make more money that the losing bets cost us. Hey - I did say this would be stating the obvious to start with.
The strike rate for this data is 2662/3074 = 86.60%
The final bank balance was £5224.16 for a profit of £4224.16
That means the winning bets made me £26620 and the losing bets cost me
£26620 - £4224.16 = £22395.84
There were 2662 winning bets out of 3074 which means there must have been 412 losing bets.
That means I lost £54.36 on an average losing bet. This equates to Betfair odds of 6.436 which I will round to 6.4 for ease.
Suppose we add on 20% as the exchange margin over SP, this gives us 6.4*1.2 = 7.68 (or 7.72 if we use the exact figures so let's just call it 7.7 and have done with it).
412 losing bets at 7.7 will cost me 412*67 = £27604
Subtract this from the amount made from the winning bets and we get £26620 - £27604 = -£984 ie the £1000 will end up as £16 if we stake as I did previously and assume a 20% margin on all the prices.
I think therefore it is safe to say that that is not the best way to go about things? So what is?
At the minute the best thing for me to do is to go to bed as I'm knackered. But I shall return with more analysis tomorrow all being well.