Pro Losers

[drum]

I took out a subscribtion for the 2 days over the weekend, and have been playing with the Pro-Losers.

By my Estimates with small bets i.e. equivalent to a £2 Stake. I estimate a loss of £5.64 over the week end. By appling my own rules give a subset of your data I can turn a £28 profit.

I reality I started playing on betfair about 4ish yesterday, and took a total profit of 64p over the weekend!! Hey you have to start somewhere. :)

So was this a bad weekend for this system, and bear with it?
Have I misunderstood something?

[susanwells]

someone else on the forum will answer better than I can .. but the Pro Losers are very long term... one winner can wipe out your day, three and you`ve wiped out you weekend and then some... best thing to do is decide you will either lay to lose a set amount, or to win a set amount, and stick to that, which will mean missing out some of the big-priced horses.. say you plan only to win 2.00 each time.. or only lose 10. each time, no more... then you may have lots of races you can`t take part in at all.. you need a very big bank to start with and a year minimum to judge results.. these are NOT short term things, certainly not weekend things, you`ll lose your shirt like as not..
hope this helps.. :hearty

[drum]

Thanks. In a nutshell that's how I made it profitable, basically I was laying £2 per tip, but I wasn't going with anything with odds greater than 9/1 (or 10.0 on betfair)

Towards the end of today, I realised that once a race had started, any bets that I hadn't got covered I could put an offer on at say 9.0 and leave it though out the race, approx 60% of these were getting taken as the horses ran the race. Many of these had odds of 14.0 to 15.0 before the race started.

[mathare]

I agree with some of what Susan says but not all of it.

This weekend was certainly not a bad weekend on the pro losers. It was a break-even weekend really. No big swings in either direction for most banks.

Before playing with the pro losers you should read as much as you can in the members area of the forum about staking plans. That means you need monthly membership of Win2Win.

Next step is to set aside a bank of around £200. Pretend you have bought something and try and think of that money as gone. That's not to say you will lose it at all, but you have used that £200 to buy the opportunity to make a lot more money.

Then decide on how you will stake the pro losers, asking in the members forum area for any advice you need.

Finally sit back and enjoy the ride :)

Tophatter does an excellet diary in the free section of the forum. I suggest you look through that to get an idea of how the system works

[drum]

Do you have a link to the diary, I saw another reference to it, and couldn't find it?

[mathare]

This is May's : http://www.win2winracing.com/forum/showthread.php?t=28175

The others are in the same area of the forum

[Win2Win]

It's all down to cut-off, staking plan, which odds you take, ets, no two people are the same even with the same selections. Today was more or less break even for some, but I and a few other finished in profit, same for yesterday.

[drum]

Okay I've been playing with the figures from TopHatter Diary, and if you take the average odds from the SportLife (I know these are for bets not lays), you would have lost about £800 over the year so far, on £2 bets.

If however you take my selective bets average you would have made £274 over the same period. Doubling your bank in 3 months. The trouble ofcourse is that I didn't manage to get all bets covered within my acceptable range, and I think technically the ones I did get covered are more likely to win. Ooo

[tophatter]

Im sorry Drum I don't understand what you are doing. How do you know what bets I would or would not have struck on which horses to get to where I am going. I HAVE doubled my bank in three months, so are you saying you can find a method where I lose whilst you fiddle with the system to get the same result I originally had - from two days worth of data? What is the point of that even if you could do it?

[bigcumba]

You got me stumped as well Drum - TH and all the others are posting actual results they are getting - so I can't quite understand how you can turn those profits into a loss without actually knowing the system qualifiers each day, and even more peculiar, is how you then turn that loss into a profit?

[drum]

Sorry didn't mean to cause confusion, I can see a system in my mind using the Pro-Loser tips, however I'm try to justify it to my head that it will work before I commit time and money to it.

All I did was take the statisitcs for 2005 from the bottom of the diary posts, I then applied my average odds to them. I recognise that a 2 day sample is not much better than a random guess when compared to that many tips, but it is all I have to work with at the present time.

Tophatter, how do you decide what odds to take on the exchange? When are you placing your bets? Are you sat infront of the PC all day as a "full time job" or are you setting things up for the day, then going out?

[Win2Win]

He does them in one, some do them one by one, which ever is best for one's self works.

I would say a few thousand % increase is proof it works :)

[tophatter]

I do them in approx 20 mins during my lunchbreak! Probably not perfect but I have took the view for the meantime that my income from work covers any potential profit I miss from having to do them this way. As long as you stay consistient it all evens out anyway and I would guess we are talking only a few percent difference over the year which ever way I do it.

[drum]

He does them in one, some do them one by one, which ever is best for one's self works.

I don't understand??


I would say a few thousand % increase is proof it works :)

Can't argue with that, if only I could get it straight in my head.

[tophatter]

What win2win is saying is I do them in one go, whereas others do them race by race. It just down to individual circumstances.

[drum]

I do them in approx 20 mins during my lunchbreak! Probably not perfect but I have took the view for the meantime that my income from work covers any potential profit I miss from having to do them this way. As long as you stay consistient it all evens out anyway and I would guess we are talking only a few percent difference over the year which ever way I do it.

Right I think I can see it now, so are you taking the best odds you can get at that point (within your limits), or are you offering your prefered odds and leaving them to run?

[tophatter]

In general I try to get as many matched during that period as I can within my cutoff. However if there is an obvious case where for whatever reason the lay price seems too high and Im 90% confident i can get 2 or 3 points better I will leave an order. Anything above my cutoff I leave an order at the cut off point.

[drum]

In general I try to get as many matched during that period as I can within my cutoff. However if there is an obvious case where for whatever reason the lay price seems too high and Im 90% confident i can get 2 or 3 points better I will leave an order. Anything above my cutoff I leave an order at the cut off point.

Sounds similar to what I was trying, I did find that you could get some very good odds for some of the runners during the race, but ofcourse this make it a full time job. Are you stats at the bottom (i.e. winners and losers etc.) just for those you get matched, or for everything tipped?

Is your cuttoff calculated for every horse, or do you just have a set range you work between?

BTW thanks for answering all the questions, it is proving very informative and helpful.

[KC*]

Towards the end of today, I realised that once a race had started, any bets that I hadn't got covered I could put an offer on at say 9.0 and leave it though out the race, approx 60% of these were getting taken as the horses ran the race. Many of these had odds of 14.0 to 15.0 before the race started.

I have to say I would never do in-running for the Pro-Losers, if that is what your doing.

Leaving a price for horses all through the day is fine but leaving it again during the race will only attract takers when the horse is doing well rather than if it was doing badly.

My impression is that the Pro-Losers is best played consistantly and laying again when in-running consistantly would consistantly get you more horses winning when you may have missed out on them.

Just my 2p's worth. :geek


KC

[tophatter]

your 2p worth is spot on KC!

[drum]

KC I can quite see your point, it is a bit of a gamble, but often if a horse starts to move up the field people will start taking the bets. That doesn't mean the horse is going to win, I notice quite a few of the Pro-Losers seem to make a run for it, then drop back.

[bigcumba]

If you were playing with them in running you would then be taking a system that is proven to be profitable, and turning it into an unproven method, with no way of knowing if it would work long term. We've seen this sort of thing before where people come on and think they can make a very good system even better - they tried and lost their money doing so.... It works best as it is - change it at your peril!

[drum]

Okay my plan from what I've learned over the weekend is :-

Subscribe for a month
Setup a bank probably about £400
Every Lunchtime Place £2 Lays againt all the ProLosers upto 10.0 odds, and Leave the others to match if possible.
At the end of the month re-evaluate with what I've learnt.

Does this sound sensible?

[John]

Hi Drum,

Yes, very sensible. :) But don't expect to 'definitely' make a profit in your first month (from what I've read it doesn't sound like you are, but some do have that expectation). :)

[bigcumba]

Yep, very sensible Drum, £400 is a good sized starting bank, and you could lay at up to £20 liability with that as 5% is the maximum suggested liabilty (apart from the turbo plan).

[mathare]

£400 to a max liability of £20 should allow you to get most races on in one go at lunchtime too

[drum]

Well I've got 22 Races Matched, 31 Unmatched. That covers everthing upto 20:00 tonight, and I've just got to cover the last 4 races when some funds are freed up as races progress.

I would have continued this in the beginners section of the members forum but I can't get in atm, I'm sure keith will sort it as soon as he get back online :)

[KC*]

Drum what is stopping you get in the members section, are you receiving an error or is it requesting a p/w ?

The p/w is where the Pro-Losers are......near the top of the page.


KC

[drum]

Drum what is stopping you get in the members section, are you receiving an error or is it requesting a p/w ?

The p/w is where the Pro-Losers are......near the top of the page.


KC

Tried that one, but it doesn't like it. Yes it is asking for a password.

[zomby]

uhmm, the new password is working ok for me

[presto]

the old password is still working for me, i havn't entered the new one but i still have access to the members bit, i have refreshed, logged out etc...

[drum]

Well out of the 22 Matched Bets So Far.

4 Winners
18 Losers

With £2 Stake on Every Bet A Net Loss of £16.14 Ooo

If I Had bet On Every Horse So Far

5 Winners
39 Losers

With £2 Stake on Every Bet Estimated Losses Of £3.16 Ooo


All of the UnMatched Bets were because the Odds were too high. Which by Definition means that they are less likely to win, and hence a better bet!!

[bigcumba]

All of the UnMatched Bets were because the Odds were too high. Which by Definition means that they are less likely to win, and hence a better bet!!

Not neccesarily - higher odds also means the Betfair odds will be much worse than SP, so if you hit a winner and are laying to win a set amount on each, your loss is much much greater. That's why everyone operates a cut off point!

[drum]

I have taken the Odds into account in my Estimate, or do you mean that on the exchanges the odds on the outsiders are exagerated against the lay bet?

[sparkyminer]

I can't help thinking you've not got the correct mindset for this yet drum. I can't explain, I'm off to watch rugby, TH will probably explain it better.

[Win2Win]

Password problemo shouldo be fixedo :)

[bigcumba]

or do you mean that on the exchanges the odds on the outsiders are exagerated against the lay bet?

Yes!

I can't help but wonder at why you need to take the system apart in such a way - quite a few folk on here now have 5 figure amounts in their Betfair accounts due to these alone. They work... end of story. Still, I guess if you're not sure, then paper trading is the best thing to do, but I would also suggest having a very long read at all the staking advice on here, especially the stuff posted by Tophatter - the beginners guide particularly should be very helpful.

[Win2Win]

All the hard work and research has been done on the Pro-Losers, by myself, and many others. They have been proofed LIVE for around 3 years, and produce consistently good profits as long as you stick to the advice given to you on this forum.

People who have deviated or thought they new better in the past, soon learnt after losing money.

[drum]

That's easy to answer, I refuse to blindly follow. Never have done, I'm the sort of kid that took toys apart to see how they worked, and most times I managed to put them back together aswell :)

By questioning every stage, you develop a better understanding of how it works. Once you understand everything in a process you have mastered it.

[drum]

People who have deviated or thought they new better in the past, soon learnt after losing money.

Please don't take it as me ignoring advice, or even deviating from the set plan.

I don't know better, but I want to know more, I have always questioned things, because I want to learn, I can't just accept that something works I need to know why. But that's just me.

Sorry for been such a pain in the ::swear::swear::swear::swear!!

[Win2Win]

Unless you have the systems their is little to take apart. Your money though, don't do an 'Arnie' on us when you lose a few quid :D

[bigcumba]

Sorry for been such a pain in the ::swear::swear::swear::swear!!

Not a problem Drum, we just have a healthy dose of cynicism on here as well, as a few of us have said - we've had a few folk come on and try and make the system better with their own ideas, and every time it's been a disaster. Short of having a crystal ball, I'd be surprised if anyone could do better - I know - I've tried! :)

[tophatter]

Keep asking questions that is absolutley fine by me.

The pro-losers are simple in how they work. you lay a horse at 8.0 (7/1) then as long as it dont win more often than one in 7 you pofit. if you lay 5000+ horses in a year (which you can expect to do if you do the prolosers) then all the little fraction added together give you profit. The system has an inbult % overbet to take care of the odds you give on betfair. The nearer to SP you lay the more profit you make. The more horses you lay the bigger your turnover, the greater the sum of those little fractions. There are one or two ways of staking but there is no getting away from the basic fact that the amount of points you give in winning horses have to be less than the amount you rake in from losing horses. A large turnover of bets over the course of the year will ensure you profit, ststistics tell you the larger the sample the more accurate the stats.

[drum]

Now that I can read some of the beginner stuff (Thanks w2w), I notice that you and others refer, to keeping your liability constant by changing your "bet". I've been doing the opposite of this today, i.e. always betting £2, and my liability has been moving within my limits.

I can't get my head round wether this is going to make any long term difference. I was going for keeping it simple, but I can see it might mean that losses are more serious. What's the general thinking?

[tophatter]

either way is fine. some people find it easier to lay to a fixed stake especially when beginning. The theory remains the same, make sure the most you can lose on any horse is manageable and work with a cut off.

[drum]

That's where I'm at at the moment, I currently staking £2 per horse, with a max odds. But I'm logging all my successful in a spreadsheet, to keep track of results etc.

I'm also keeping a sheet of all the results, not just the matched ones, so that I can keep an overall picture on things, and maybe finetune the cutoff abit.

[drum]

Results for the Day,

Down £2.84, had I bet on everything at my estimated odds I would be down £2.49, so given the reduced risk, close enough.

[tophatter]

More importantly how did you find it? did you enjoy yourself? Early days monetery results are not really important. If you decide you can make a go of this, the stakes will be much higher in months to come, so experimentation, mistakes and learning are much more important at this stage.

[drum]

At the moment I would say it has possibilities. 1 Day is hardly the be all and end all of it. It was Interesting I will be carrying on at this stage :)

Oh and I accidentally missed the last 2 results off the totals in my spreadsheet, only found it when I crosschectedthe P&L from bet fair I'm up 96p :wiggle:

And my final thought for tonight is that I paid £2.10 in commision to betfair, in future weeks I should get upto 60% discount on that, making the profits roughly double.

[Win2Win]

60%!!! You have to be betting a six figure sum to get that.

[drum]

I know but you've got to have a target :)

[bigcumba]

I know but you've got to have a target :)

:laugh I like your style!

[tophatter]

You got to aim high Big C no matter how unlikely....... Just look at Micky Howard before the election! :)

[drum]

Just a quick summary for today, I missed the first 2 races beacuse a meeting dragged on this morning, but got the rest of the bets on.

29 Bets were matched.

3 Winners
26 Losers

Total outcome £5.52 Profit. :wiggle:

[Win2Win]

Why when after an election we see the shadow cabinet talking down the goverment on TV, lose in sport and you fade away......we can wish.....:)

[drum]

31 Bets Matched

6 Winners
24 Losers

Total outcome a loss of £1.60 for the Day. But still in profit overall.

[Profit Seeker]

Hey, Drum, slowly but surely I see. Say, do you lay every selection given or do you only lay upto certain odds? What's your limit?

[drum]

I'm laying up to a level, but I'm keeping a spreadsheet of all the results. I'm then analysing the spreadsheet to give the best level, so at the moment, it moves around slightly (but not by much). Anything above my limit, I put an offer on at my limit, and then wait and see.

I'm also lay to a fixed bet, rather than fixed liabilities atm.

Looks like I could be on another loser today, but a few people seem to be struggling.

[Profit Seeker]

What is that limit though? 10/1, 16/1,20/1 25/1?

[drum]

At the moment it changes day to day, but it's between about 9.0 to 14.0 as i refine the figures.

[Win2Win]

You should NOT move the cut-off.

[drum]

I do agree with you keith, but I don't have enough result data to provide me with a decent figure. As time goes on it should settle down into a solid figure.

Down £25.32 Could be worse.

[Win2Win]

Optimum cut-offs established over the last 5 years from around live 100,000 examples for starters is between 10-11. Nothing to work out :doh

[drum]

Optimum cut-offs established over the last 5 years from around live 100,000 examples for starters is between 10-11. Nothing to work out :doh

It looks like that's where my calculations are leading, it's definitely tending towards those figures. Is that figure published somewhere, I don't remember reading it, but then that's not say I didn't.

[drum]

Optimum cut-offs established over the last 5 years from around live 100,000 examples for starters is between 10-11. Nothing to work out :doh

Incidentally is that sort of data stuff you've collected, or is it available to examine, and work on?

[Win2Win]

Your welcome to it, I'll post the 5,500 pages :doh I only started using spreadsheets a year ago. Previously I done most things the 'old' way :)

The cut-offs are mentioned all over the forum.

[drum]

If your serious I'd be interested in any historical data you have on spreadsheets.

[drum]

Bit shakey early on but finished up £6.90 on the day.

[tophatter]

One thing you will learn Drum is the only data that is useful to yourself is the data you gleen yourself. Different people lay different ways. The main stats I have gathered from the pro-losers are the strike rate will be around 88.40% on horses with a cut off at 16.00. Probably nearer to 87.00% on horses 11.00 and under. How you profit on those is down to you. A variety of ways to do it, but that is the tools Win2win provide you with.

[Win2Win]

I doubt my data would make sense to anyone, I can't spell delimeter!!

[drum]

What I'm really looking for a is a list of horses and positions finished, odds etc for each race. So that I can fine tune my betting over historical data, and more than just the last few days that I've played with.

[tophatter]

Personally all I keep is the individual days end results. There may be a member or two in the upstairs forum who may keep more but with maybe as many as 8000 lays per year I doubt there will be many who log each individual bet down.

[drum]

Was up £20 at on point, but finished up £5.32 Still a loss over the week though, with one day still to go.

[presto]

i used to keep record's of every runner when i first started, but i found i didn't need to list them all, as the data wasn't really relevant (also a pain imputting it all). what i now keep a record of is:

selections #
winners #
losers #
liability #
profit £#

with these figures i can work out the most important thing's:
profit
strike rate
R.O.I
(i also keep pretty graphs :) )

i used to keep record's of commission paid, but again i didn't think it to relevant (leave that to betfair) - it was also deppressing seeing how much betfair take :(

2% account - £48.8k (commish paid per year)
3% account - £15.1k
4% account - £4.6K

[drum]

What do people do about missing days, last week I was fairly lucky and managed to get to a computer aroundly midday every day, however there are a few days this week, where I know I won't be able to get to a computer till maybe late afternoon early evening. What's the general concensus on this. Do I do the best I can? Or do I beg Keith to email me the Pro-Losers at say 10:00am as a special favour? (Only Joking, Keith)

[Profit Seeker]

i used to keep record's of every runner when i first started, but i found i didn't need to list them all, as the data wasn't really relevant (also a pain imputting it all). what i now keep a record of is:

selections #
winners #
losers #
liability #
profit £#

with these figures i can work out the most important thing's:
profit
strike rate
R.O.I
(i also keep pretty graphs :) )

i used to keep record's of commission paid, but again i didn't think it to relevant (leave that to betfair) - it was also deppressing seeing how much betfair take :(

2% account - £48.8k (commish paid per year)
3% account - £15.1k
4% account - £4.6K


2% of £48k is 2.4 million :doh

I think I meant £48k is 2% of 2.4 million!

[Win2Win]

it was also deppressing seeing how much betfair take
What have we told you about NEGATIVE THOUGHT - What is actually happening is you are getting slightly lower odds than you asked for, still higher than SP though on average, so in effect the person you are taking it off is paying YOUR commission.

If I had them ready at 10am they'd be online, but sometimes I don't get the data I require till 10am, which means I'd have to send you an email like this....
" "

[drum]

Yeah, I wasn't serious about the email. But what the best thing to do when you know your going to miss everything up to say 4ish?? Do the best you can, or right the day off. What about evening races?

[mathare]

Drum - if it helps I have quite a bit of data on these as I have the highest cutoff of everyone I think.

I don't record all the lays, only the selections I get matched up to 21. I have this data and whether they won or not for most days this year and also a good number of selections from last year although nowhere near every day as I used to bet mainly on weekends. It's about 6000 or more selections though.

[drum]

That would be great Mathare.

I'll pm you an email address.

[drum]

End of week one, and we're up £15.50 on the day, a total of up about £3 on the week.