US Exotics pools

[TheOldhamWhisper]

After careful consideration, I think this is the best section for this thread.

There are chances of winning a few quid by playing the 'exotics' in US racing and betting directly into the pools. On many occasions you can pick up substantial dividends by understanding the way the US betting public play. This is in no way meant to be a derogatory statement - but it is true that very often dividends pay far higher in the US pools than you would expect from an English equivalent.

An example is the simple Exacta (or straight forecast). On many occasions a short priced favourite beaten by the 2nd favourite has paid in excess of 16/1!

A simple plan of using the top 3 in the market as both first and second selections will regularly produce small profits.

ie

A is 1/2
B is 5/2
C is 5/2

Selections are ABC over ABC producing AB, AC, BC, BA, CA, CB which for a minimum stake will cost $12. If the favourite wins and one of the others finishes 2nd, chances are that you will not make a profit but you won't lose much either. But if the favourite finishes 2nd to one of the other selections, you will probably make a profit (and in some cases could easily triple your stake).

My favourite Exacta plan involves 'Handicapping' a race to see if there are any 'value odds' to be had. More on this tomorrow.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

The main difference between US Racing and UK Racing is that in the UK a nice man in a top hat handicaps all the horses to dead heat. We know it rarely happens like that, but that's the theory and the better a horse performs the more weight it has to carry until it starts losing. In effect, the UK system handicaps horses to lose! In US races the horses are mainly handicapped to WIN as it is the trainers who 'set' the weights (within certain criteria). This tends to lead to short prices in some races and occasionally there are massive 'overlays' just waiting to be picked up.

The Morning Line prices in US racing are a guide and rely on one person at each track trying to work out where the public will play their money. This can be quite accurate at some tracks and wildly innaccurate at others. The best way to do it is to study the form, check the recent workout times, take into consideration horses dropping in class (or going up in class) etc. to form your own 'handicap'. Then select your own 'favourite' and give it 120lb to carry and work your way down your list giving each selection a weight between 100lb and 120lb. Next, check the race card to compare the actual weights with your own calculations. (cont...)

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Now you have worked out the 'value' horses (ie the ones carrying less weight than you think they should) we need a way of using them in the exotics.

This is an effective exacta strategy for producing a nice profit in certain types of races, especially in races where it seems no money can be made for example a small field where the favourite is around even money. The rules for this exacta play are as follows:
* We will use only the 4 shortest prices on the Morning Line or the top 4 picks from your Handicapping (preferred).
* Make 2 of them keys. The top pick and, of the remaining 3 horses, the one with the highest near post time odds.
* Key those 2 on top of each other plus the other 2 for multiple units and a hedge backwards for a unit or so.
* The bet is $4 exacta key 1,4 with 1,2,3,4 and a $2 exacta key 1,2,3,4 with 1,4. You can see if our 2 keys run first and second we will have the exacta for $6.
* This strategy recently paid $78 back from a $36 investment even though the heavy favorite won and it was a tiny 6 horse field.
* The strategy can be expanded to include more runners in a bigger field, but whilst the rewards of doing so are greater, so is the stake and it could get very expensive with 3 or 4 consecutive losses.

Tomorrow I will look at the 'BIG' payout potential of the Superfecta.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

The Superfecta is the 'lottery' of US Racing. There is NO UK equivalent that I know of except perhaps for the annual 'specials' available on the Grand National. Superfecta betting requires 8 runners (NOT including 'entry' horses where 2 or more horses are grouped for betting purposes). If you have a few quid to spare and fancy a shot at winning some BIG money, consider the Superfecta. THIS IS A FUN BET AND YOU CAN LOSE QUITE A BIT OF MONEY - YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!

Using your 'handicapping' system as discussed earlier, extend it to 6 or 7 selections to use in your Superfectas. 'Boxing' so many selections will almost certainly drain even the BIGGEST bank balance, so we need a way to reduce the number of bets. My favourite is as follows:

First we need a 'banker' - not to win, but to place in the first 4. For the example we will use our 'favourite' which will be horse 1 in our handicap list.

Next we want our 'value pick' - the one with the best 'near post' odds in our 7 selections. We will call this horse 2 in our list. These 2 will be in all positions in our Superfecta.

The remaining selections will be renamed 3,4,5,6,7 in the order of preference.

The selections wil be:

1,2 to finish 1st
1,2,3,4 to finish 2nd
1,2,5,6 to finish 3rd
1,2,3,4,5,6,7 for the 4th place

This gives us 64 lines which at $2 works out at around £90.

Dividends vary and are governed by the pool, but around 50% of divis are 4 figure and some are 5 figure sums. It is almost unheard of for a Superfecta to pay less than 3 figures.

Tomorrow, I will finish off with the other exotics including the Daily Double, 'pick' races and the Trifecta.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Due to an unfortunate incident involving a certain operating system, a short temper and the format command, the conclusion to the thread is a bit late. Sorry.

The remaining 'exotics' are:

Daily Double - usually the first (or first and last) two races at the track. Straight forward - pick the winners of the two races. I prefer to bet this on the last two races if available because on occasion the track 'bias' can lead to favourites getting turned over early in the card simply because they have a bad draw. Another possible way to use the daily double to advantage (first two races ONLY) is to wait for the first result and then back the horse with the same race number in the second of the two races - this wins with a strike rate well above the normal expectation (around 19%).

Trifecta - first 3 in the right order. It's a FUN bet, nothing more, nothing less. The Superfecta will usually pay better divis and the Exacta has a better chance of bringing in the money.

Pick races - Pick 3, Pick 4 etc. are accumulators on consecutive races. Watch out for 'carryovers' on the Pick 6 races. Very similar to the Tote Jackpot and the carryovers can be 6 figures.

I hope this thread is of some use to you if you are considering betting into the US pools.

Be Lucky.

[druids]

Thanks Oldham.

Invaluable reading for anyone who wants to have a go in those markets.