Maths System (Martingale Inspired)

[MikeJeffs]

I've come across a system which I would expect is old news. Mathamatically I can't see a flaw in it, but I'm wondering if there are real world issues to consider. I suppose it's similar to the martingale roulette system, but applied to racing.

You place a bet for £5. If you win you place another for £5.

If you lose a bet, you need to increase your bet so that should you now win, you will recoup the loss on the first bet. Should you lose this second bet you must increase your bet again so if you win you recoup your previous 2 losses. This continues till you win, at which point you return to your low bet, or increase as your bankroll allows.

I've heard of bookeepers closing the accounts of people using this system. Is there anything you can do to reduce the risk? So far I can think of:

- Making round figure bets, eg rounding up to the nearest 5 or 10.
- Using multiple bookies. One for small bets, one for mid bets (when you've lost a couple), and one for large bets (say 4 losses in a row.)

Anything else you can suggest?

I'm also interested in the sort of bankroll I would need to start using such a system? I have very little racing knowledge so would be relying in tipsters exclusivly. What is an esitmated hit rate for a tipster? 30%? Any suggestions on minimum starting bankroll?

hope you can shed some light!

[plater]

Mike, Welcome to the forum.

Bin it :yikes: , not so long ago we had 40 odd losing favourites on the bounce, chasing those types of losses is a non starter, it's all to do with strikerate & return on investment, if you can pick winners regularly then there is no need for such types of chase loss staking :D

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Plater has it just about spot on - any system that chases losses is highly dangerous!

[tophatter]

bin it and do us a favour and dont even think of saying where you found it or what it is called. We will all stay happy that way :box

[MarcusMel]

If you are going to rely on tipsters bin the system. You have to study tipsters for a long time before you start relying on them if at all.

On the positive side of the idea is that if you are using bigger odds to win with the increase in stake to recover is small - at first!

[MikeJeffs]

Thanks for the advice guys :)

I does surprise me about 40 losing favourites, but I've just done the maths on that and even starting with a pitiful initial bet, the running loss soon becomes one big scary figure with smaller odds. Is it common to get such long losing streaks? Even with certain subscription services that advertise 60% hit rates?

Looks like it's going till the bin, until I come across £10,000 and want to make £1 starting bets!

I get the impression this is a system/scam that has been around for a while? (not mentioning any names or places lol)

[TheOldhamWhisper]

It's not necessarily a scam - it's just a dangerous way to bet. Have a look round the forum and stick with this site. When you feel that you are happy with the way the site is run, you might want to consider upgrading to a subscription with all the associated benefits. We tend to tell it as it is on here and there are plenty of VERY happy members!

[tophatter]

60% strike rates will almost certainly hit losing runs that are longer than you would think. Just as it is possible to get 5+ winners on a 60% system then it should be equally possible to get as many losers and maybe more.

In theory it might work, but in practice you have got no chance unless you have a huge bank. If You have a huge bank then you need not take risks like this to make money. You would only need to find a system that turned over a few points profit per year with a decent strike rate and you would be fine staking to level stakes.

[Roberto]

Is it common to get such long losing streaks? Even with certain subscription services that advertise 60% hit rates?
There are two "key facts" you need to know in this context:-

(i) Advertising a 60% strike-rate and actually having a long-term 60% strike-rate are two completely different things (and lots of tipsters with 35% strike-rates overall will have the occasional week or month, depending on their tip frequency, when they have a 60% strike-rate);

(ii) If you really do have a long-term strike-rate of 60% you will at some point have a losing run of 12 and you may have a losing run of 15, and right after you've had a losing run of 12 you're no more or less likely to have another losing run of 12 than at any other time - and that's without mentioning all the much more common times you'll have a losing run of 8 followed by one short-priced winner and then another losing run of 8.

[MarcusMel]

Update it wasn't 40 it was 52 losing favorites :yikes: the figures then adjusted with a nice couple of groups of favorites winning. This is why Martingdale is so dangerous. and long term level stakes (5 years of racing!) that have a proven profit is easier to live with.

For cumulative staking systems must have a little or no clumping of results in order for them to work or with well defined cut acceptable loss points that will still alow profit to accumulate in the future.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Marcus makes an excellent point. These types of staking system can work if you factor in (for example) a 5 loser maximum. This will keep the losses under control but of course you run the risk of every 6th horse winning at short odds!!

[MikeJeffs]

Oldham, I am tempted to become a member here, but there is so much reading to do, and terminology to get my head around that I'll give it a bit to get myself aquainted with the lingo.

Marcus, when you mean clumping of results, do you mean in terms terms of long groups of winners and losers? Does that mean that the system would be more feasable if betting on activity with lesser possible outcomes. For example betting on the win/lose/draw for say a football match, where I imagine the odds will be shorter but a long losing streak is unlikely to last long.

Sorry for my newbie theories ;)

[presto]

even when there are few outcomes the staking will still be unfeasable. it was first developed for roulette . which is near enough 50 / 50 (50% SR on red or black). but 8 losses on the trot are not uncommon. the highest i think was 32. so take 8 losses as an example.

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 , 1024, 2048

i doupt the table will accept a bet of £128 if it has a minimum bet of £1 - but going on from the 8 losses on the trot - you also have to concider the longer 'inevertable' losing streaks - where the money does get serious.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Unless you are backing Evens or less, it won't get quite that bad but of course Presto has shown the dangers of an even-money system! It's scary to say the very least!

[susanwells]

even when there are few outcomes the staking will still be unfeasable. it was first developed for roulette . which is near enough 50 / 50 (50% SR on red or black). but 8 losses on the trot are not uncommon. the highest i think was 32. so take 8 losses as an example.

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 , 1024, 2048

i doupt the table will accept a bet of £128 if it has a minimum bet of £1 - but going on from the 8 losses on the trot - you also have to concider the longer 'inevertable' losing streaks - where the money does get serious.


it does work with roulette EXCEPT as you say you come up against the table limit.. but if you stick to tiny stakes and work to a pattern it can be fine..I don`t use it now but I did... and I make profit from roulette. But I`d never ever use it on horse racing..everything said on this thread is very sound. :hearty

[MikeJeffs]

I appreciate the info you've all given me. I was very close to starting out with it, so I'm glad I didn't now.

[daveymck]

it does work with roulette EXCEPT as you say you come up against the table limit.. but if you stick to tiny stakes and work to a pattern it can be fine..I don`t use it now but I did... and I make profit from roulette. But I`d never ever use it on horse racing..everything said on this thread is very sound. :hearty

Long term it is not possible to make profit from roulette and variations on the Matingale system have been rehashed by every money hungry punter since it began. The only way long term to come out of the casino with money is not to play or take up poker, the games of luck cannot be beaten.

There is a really good website that has all the odds for casino games as well as the best strategy to lose less (particulary useful if bonus whoring), he ran a challenge where he would give $25k to anyone who created a winning system over 1 million hands/spins and took up a challange at 40k and won, systems do not work at these games.

There seems to be some etiquette here about posting links so I will wait for someone to say its ok to post the links before doing it, not spam sites and one of them is really useful for anyone contemplating casino whoring.

[mathare]

Long term it is not possible to make profit from roulette and variations on the Matingale system have been rehashed by every money hungry punter since it began. The only way long term to come out of the casino with money is not to play or take up poker, the games of luck cannot be beaten.
Cames of luck where the casino if offering odds that are not representative of the true probability i.e. games where the casino has an edge, cannot be beaten, no. Not long term anyway. That said an edge of 5% doesn't necessarily mean that if you gambled £100 you would lose £5. They key to making any sort of profit from casino games is to take profits when they come and stop playing. Don't keep chasing bigger profits as you will inevitably end up giving the money back to the casino.

Blackjack played to basic strategy can minimise the house edge, reducing it from around 7% when played with no strategy to about 0.5%. Playing craps taking the max free odds on both pass/don't pass line bets and come/don't come bets reduces the house edge to under 1% too.

Basically though, in a bricks and mortar casino you have to accept the house edge as the cost for the casino running the game for you and giving you free drinks. You have to buy the opportunity to try and win money off the casino if you like.

[Win2Win]

Davey, you can profit from Blackjack (card counting) & Craps (house edge goes down to 1%, so can be beaten).

Bugger, Mat metioned the latter.....thinks he's a clever ass :)

[mathare]

Bugger, Mat metioned the latter.....thinks he's a clever ass :)Thinks? Knows :D

[finnpark]

Hello Forum,

Im new here.

I have been paper betting for ages now with this sytem just using 1 tip per day. I have made substantial profit from the system on paper.

Longest losing run since September: 3

You get yourself a very good tipster (which I did) who gives you a daily tip.

GOLDEN RULES (Very Important):
(1) You don't back odds on shots - NEVER.
(2) You don't back tips for Handicaps - NEVER.
(3) You don't back tips > 3/1 - NEVER.
(4) If you get just 4 losers in a row you stop and start again. You can take the loss if you follow good enough tips.

It works fine with quality rather than quantity.

I also apply the system to snooker. I follow live matches frame by frame betting and always back a player who is sure to win a frame eg Stephen Hendry. Not Ronnie O'Sullivan or any non-favourite.

I also back on the FTSE 100 end of day level.

The system is brilliant but you need to paper bet for 6 months 1st.

40 odds on favourites have never lost in a row although you could go 10 in a row I would say - I don't back odds on favourites.

Its all about getting the right tipster to make the system work and I found that.

[susanwells]

Plenty of good tipsters on here - though they`d not call themselves that. And so far as ANY system based on the martingale - be afraid. Be very afraid. :hearty

[finnpark]

Hi,

Im not afraid of it because I never risk even a 1/4 of my bank. I will stop after 4 losers in a row - if and when that happens. I can yake the hit and start again and still make an excellent profit - so far so good. But I think you need to have a clue about racing and put some thought into the system i.e. Don't just use the system for favourites or odds on favourites. Your selections need thought.

For Example:
What is the chance of Stephen Hendry going 6-0 down to a weaker opponent. Exactly - it will not happen.

I think the system is excellent in the right hands. The key is to limit your bets to 1 per day for horse racing - and put thought into selection or get an excellent tipster.

[MarcusMel]

Of course its nice to know that Stephen Hendry's home life and health are in good order too! :D

[flaming norah]

I also very nearly started the system posted at the top of this thread. After asking and listening to the advice given here on the forum I decided not to do it. But I was still interested in the idea of increasing stakes to recoup, but only to a point.
In the end what I decided to do was start with a minimum bet of 50p and a maximum of £8.00 (though i did go mad once and bet (£16) due to a weak moment :mover This gives me a run of five bets before the cutoff.

I started in May with £100, i've had some time off due to numerous pc problems and school holidays (don't gamble in front of the children and since they won't bugger off when i'm on the pc it's a no go).

Last Thursday I hit a high of £383, though after a rough fri, sat, sun it's down to £351, which i was expecting as i'd had two really fab days in a row.

There have been a lot of downs with this system and just enough ups to keep it growing slowly. The main thing with something like this in my 7 months experience is discipline. Decide where your cut offs are and stick to them. There will be days when those cut offs leave you trying to kick your own @rse cause the one after your cut off won etc etc but the main thing to remember is the security of the bank. If the bank grows perhaps you could add another bet onto your cut off, or just stick with what you are doing.

What i'm doing seems to be working, it's very slow going and certainly no get rich quick scheme and i'm under no iluusion that it could just as easily start going down instead of up. The thing is though, i'm enjoying what i'm doing, it's interesting and fun for me. A year ago I knew nothing about horse racing, my knowledge now is still very limited but coming on here has been a real education and every one of my questions has been answered by people respectfully except for once (remember BOI anyone :D )

Good luck with whatever you decide to do, but if you try anything like this be extrememly careful and have cut offs in place.

Best wishes

Vicky

[Roberto]

For Example: What is the chance of Stephen Hendry going 6-0 down to a weaker opponent. Exactly - it will not happen.
Granted. But how is that relevant if you're only betting at odds against?


GOLDEN RULES (Very Important):
(1) You don't back odds on shots - NEVER.

[finnpark]

Hi all,

Yes, in relation to snooker Stephen Hendry will be odds on - but the snooker is guaranteed whereas the horse racing is not. I am prepared to back odds on at snooker but keep to the golden rule for the ggs.

My cut-off point is a certain % of my bank. Thankfully I have not ever had to do this YET on paper nor in real life.

The system is brilliant if you have a knowledge of horse racing.

ALSO THIS SYSTEM IS EXCELLENT:
ALL BETS > 2/1.

Bet 1: 1pt
Bet 2: 1pt
Bet 3: 2pt
Bet 4: 3pt
Bet 5: 5pt
Bet 6: 8pt
Bet 7: 13pt
Bet 8: 21pt
CUT OFF.

All bets > 2/1 - horses, eg 2nd favs in maidens and novice races.

[mathare]

Yes, in relation to snooker Stephen Hendry will be odds on - but the snooker is guaranteed whereas the horse racing is not.Do you seriously believe that?

[Roberto]

ALSO THIS SYSTEM IS EXCELLENT:
ALL BETS > 2/1.

Bet 1: 1pt
Bet 2: 1pt
Bet 3: 2pt
Bet 4: 3pt
Bet 5: 5pt
Bet 6: 8pt
Bet 7: 13pt
Bet 8: 21pt
CUT OFF.
All bets > 2/1 - horses, eg 2nd favs in maidens and novice races.
Do you seriously believe that?

Do you understand the basic arithmetic of strike-rates and losing runs? Do you know that if you have selections with an average price of 5/2 and a strike rate of 45% (very unlikely indeed, but it would be profitable even at level stakes) and you use the staking "plan" above, your chances of being wiped out are 100%? Not 99%. Really, literally 100%.

Do you know what size losing run you should allow for with strike-rates of (say) 35% and 40%?

My guess is that you don't (if you did, you couldn't possibly make the comment above!), and you'd probably be shocked to the point of frank disbelief at the answers.

I promise I don't mean it impolitely, and I am trying to help, but I honestly think your time might perhaps be better spent reading some of the basics of odds, percentages and probabilities rather than expounding suicidal staking-plans in public.

[finnpark]

Hi All,

Some harsh words indeed.

You don't need 45% strike rate?? Each time you have a winner you start again from start. So if you have a winner at 2pt you go back to 1pt and start again. Think about it. You only need 1 winner from every 8.

It does assume that you have some knowledge of horse racing - if you cannot pick just 1 2/1 winner from every 8 then you should not be betting at all. All you need is 1 winner from 8 - even some slip ups and you will still make a great profit.

I will rewrite the system because I think some people misunderstood the proposed system:

Bet 1: 1pt lost
Bet 2: 1pt lost
Bet 3: 2pt lost
Bet 4: 3pt won (+2pts MINIMUM overall)
Bet 5: 1pt lost
6: 1pt lost
7: 2pt lost
8: 3pt lost
9: 5pt lost
10: 8pt lost
11: 13pt won (+8pts MINIMUM overall)
Bet 12: 1pt etc

I hope this is clearer. As you can see the system is excellent for anyone with a decent knowledge of racing or anyone who is a member of a tipster service (good one) who gives tips around 2/1.

2/1 winners are not that hard to find and you can afford to reach your cut-off a few times per year and still make a profit.

[sparkyminer]

The sequence is the Fibbonacci sequence and will sooner or later take out all but the most humongous banks.

[presto]

the snooker is guaranteed whereas the horse racing is not. I am prepared to back odds on at snooker but keep to the golden rule for the ggs.

last thursday in the snooker prem league,
stevens was a 1.01 certainty over jimmy white when leadind 3-0 in a best of 6.

guess what happened? - i will give you 3 guesses :)

[mathare]

guess what happened? - i will give you 3 guesses :)A squirrel ran in and stole the brown ball midway through the 4th frame and the match was abandonded

[finnpark]

last thursday in the snooker prem league,
stevens was a 1.01 certainty over jimmy white when leadind 3-0 in a best of 6.

guess what happened? - i will give you 3 guesses :)

He was 3-0 up - you stop once he wins 1. Thats the system. You have your money made after frame 1.

Did he lose 6-0?

He drew 3-3.

O'Sullivan is the only player to whitewash anyone in that tourament - I should know I made £85 on 1st frame - and he was the favourite.

Like I say - the system works if you have half a brain. It does not work if you get carried away.

You find me a time (since he went into top 10) that Hendry went down 6-0 in a competive tourament. Exactly. It does work - you have to apper bet for a long time to beleive it.

[presto]

A squirrel ran in and stole the brown ball midway through the 4th frame and the match was abandonded

so you saw the match aswell.
i bet they have that on question of sport some time in the future :)

[finnpark]

The sequence is the Fibbonacci sequence and will sooner or later take out all but the most humongous banks.

Yes thats the one, it is mathematically sound.

Again, it does assume a certain level of intelligence.

Im not force feeding these systems on you guys but Im trying to educate myself to see how others succeeded. I am not using either full time but when I do use them I clean up. I only pick sure bets though - as sure as you can get. I am paper betting also and have not faultered once to date.

By the way in the Premier League snooker, every player lets the opponent win a frame - except Ronnie. I don't back Ronnie anymore as he is too unpredictable. If you watch that snooker and someone is getting hammered they let the person get a frame - it is really obvious too.

[vegyjones]

Did he put brown on the bottom cushion! Ooo

[finnpark]

and will sooner or later take out all but the most humongous banks.

You set your bank up correctly.

For example:

200pt Bank
£5 per point
£1000 Bank

1pt =£5.

Please don't tell me it doesn't work because there is a tipster proofed to racing-index that shows that the system works. In fact he is +400pts up this year. Thats +£2000 at just £5 per pt. His results are proofed. He once went without a win before returning to 1pt .

Both systems work but are not fool proof.

[vegyjones]

:laugh :laugh :laugh

[sparkyminer]

Will someone post the figures 'cos basically I can't be arsed to look for them:)

[Roberto]

Please don't tell me it doesn't work because there is a tipster proofed to racing-index that shows that the system works.
<sigh> ... and this is your "proof"? :yikes:

Believe it or not, Finnpark, everyone here is trying to help you and save you from a disaster.

You say you're simply trying to educate yourself; you might be able to do that if you'd answered my questions on the previous page instead of ignoring them. There are people here who are very willing to explain these things to folk who are willing to listen rather than insist that they're right. :)

I'll try my three little questions again, but if you don't answer I'll assume I'm not welcome in your thread and just leave you to it, ok? :spinning

1. Do you understand the basic arithmetic of strike-rates and losing runs? 2. Do you know that if you have selections with an average price of 5/2 and a strike rate of 45% (very unlikely indeed, but it would be profitable even at level stakes) and you use the staking "plan" above, your chances of being wiped out are 100%? Not 99%. Really, literally 100%. 3.Do you know what size losing run you should allow for with strike-rates of (say) 35% and 40%? :doh

[vegyjones]

I am not trying to help him!

But then he shouldn't come onto a racing forum and disrespect people who have much experience of things and are trying to help!

[Roberto]

I am not trying to help him! But then he shouldn't come onto a racing forum and disrespect people who have much experience of things and are trying to help!
To be honest I agree with you, Vegy.

I was just trying to be helpful because I remember many years ago being ultra-naive and imagining that (i) if someone had "proofed" their tips to an "independent" body, that made them all true (don't laugh too much, please: I used to think that, however much it embarrasses me to admit it now); and (ii) that if you had a strike-rate of around 35% you'd never actually have a losing run of more than about 15. And on some level, I suppose it pains me to see people believing ::swear ::swear ::swear ::swear like that.

[finnpark]

<sigh> ... and this is your "proof"? :yikes:

Believe it or not, Finnpark, everyone here is trying to help you and save you from a disaster.

You say you're simply trying to educate yourself; you might be able to do that if you'd answered my questions on the previous page instead of ignoring them. There are people here who are very willing to explain these things to folk who are willing to listen rather than insist that they're right. :)

I'll try my three little questions again, but if you don't answer I'll assume I'm not welcome in your thread and just leave you to it, ok? :spinning

1. Do you understand the basic arithmetic of strike-rates and losing runs? 2. Do you know that if you have selections with an average price of 5/2 and a strike rate of 45% (very unlikely indeed, but it would be profitable even at level stakes) and you use the staking "plan" above, your chances of being wiped out are 100%? Not 99%. Really, literally 100%. 3.Do you know what size losing run you should allow for with strike-rates of (say) 35% and 40%? :doh

Hi Again,

You have driven me to this:
http://www.ggking.com/results.html - he doesn't have a 45% strike rate and he picks some odds on shots.

What have you to say?

Please tell me how you need a 45% strike rate to make the system work - you need a new calculator. You need less than a 13% strike rate theoretically to make it work. I don't think you understand the system.

You go back to 1pt if you have a winner.

Now explain to me why you need a 45% strike rate. Say it really slowly cause I don't understand. The 100% chance of been wiped out has NOT happened to him in last 10 months.

[Roberto]

Please tell me how you need a 45% strike rate to make the system work
I didn't say that that's what you need. I merely stated as an example that if you used the staking progression you quoted, you would be ruined even if you did have a strike-rate of 45%.

You still haven't answered any of my three little questions. Some cynical people might suspect you don't know any of the answers. There are many people here who can explain all of those things to you, and how to work them out, if you ask nicely and stop trying to Be Right. And believe me: they are answers you need to know.


I don't think you understand the system.
Ok, Finnpark. You are right and everyone else is wrong. Sorry to have taken up your time. Good luck and I will leave you in peace.

[sparkyminer]

You go back to 1pt if you have a winner.


It's the number of occassions you don't have a winner that's the crux of it. I don't know the figures but for fairly high strike rates the losing runs can be surprisingly long. :)

[finnpark]

[QUOTE=Roberto]that if you had a strike-rate of around 35% you'd never actually have a losing run of more than about 15. QUOTE]

If you have losing runs of 15 or more you should not be betting at all. In fact if you can pick 10 losers in a row you should not be betting.

Please read my previous post.

[finnpark]

It's the number of occassions you don't have a winner that the crux of it. I don't know the figures but for fairly high strike rates the losing runs can be surprisingly long. :)

What are you backing.

I make 1 selction a day and on paper since September my longest losing run was 3. I pick a horse thats pretty sure to be place at 2/1 to 3/1. I never realised you had losing runs of 10+ - thats where your going wrong.

[vegyjones]

Your proofed results had a losing run of 13 :doh

[Roberto]

In fact if you can pick 10 losers in a row you should not be betting. Please read my previous post.
I'm really sorry, but you're simply too full of your own ill-informed opinions for me to able to discuss it with you productively at all. It's over and out from me. You may have chosen a particularly ill-advised point to try to make in its context here, because almost all of the systems with which many members of this website have been making a steady living throw up longer losing runs than that! :)

I suspect that you don't even begin to understand the relationship between strike-rate and losing runs. I had originally thought that I might be the one to explain it to you, but I'm afraid I'm not up to it after all. Sorry.

[vegyjones]

Hope no one tells him about the pro-losers! :yikes: :laugh :laugh

[wb]

Ok finnpark.....

There are many very experienced gamblers here, some pro's. If you think that it is impossible to have 10 losers, look at yesterdays racing. The form went out the window. the amount of high priced winners was huge.

Anyway, you seem to be sticking to your guns.

Here is a challenge to you. If your bets are really worth their salt,

Post your bets in the 'fun bets' section.

Include your stake - and a running total.



If you prove everyone wrong, I will be the first to congratulate you, but I don't think that will happen.

Well??? how about it???

[vegyjones]

;fire

Sorry Finn, Wayne is taking the mickey out of you!

Your selections should go in the "humour" section of the forum :wink

[finnpark]

Your proofed results had a losing run of 13 :doh

If you have a 200pt as I suggested (£1000 and £5 per pt) 13 in a row is no problem. It is actually only 8 + 5 and 13 in a row happened just once and he is still up 340pts - he didn't go down. 13 in a row shows how little knowledge he has about racing and is still amking £3400 per yr at just £10 per pt.

Only time will tell but I beleive I can make the 2 systems work. I will let everyone know how Im doing on a month by month basis.

[finnpark]

Ok finnpark.....

There are many very experienced gamblers here, some pro's. If you think that it is impossible to have 10 losers, look at yesterdays racing. The form went out the window. the amount of high priced winners was huge.

Anyway, you seem to be sticking to your guns.

Here is a challenge to you. If your bets are really worth their salt,

Post your bets in the 'fun bets' section.

Include your stake - and a running total.



If you prove everyone wrong, I will be the first to congratulate you, but I don't think that will happen.

Well??? how about it???


I accept the challange.

I will list the tips for each system and we make up the maths later. You will see that it works.

[wb]

I will let everyone know how Im doing on a month by month basis.

Thats really not good enough finn, because frankly, no-one will believe you. Why not post your selections before each race, and keep a record of p&l?????

I think I know why :)

[wb]

I accept the challange.

I will list the tips for each system and we make up the maths later. You will see that it works.

fair enough, but make sure you include the stake for each bet BEFORE you post it

[mathare]

Watch out forumites - you may get some unexpected pos rep in the next few mins just so I can neg rep Finnpark again :wink

[vegyjones]

If you have a 200pt as I suggested (£1000 and £5 per pt) 13 in a row is no problem. It is actually only 8 + 5 and 13 in a row happened just once and he is still up 340pts - he didn't go down. 13 in a row shows how little knowledge he has about racing and is still amking £3400 per yr at just £10 per pt.

Only time will tell but I beleive I can make the 2 systems work. I will let everyone know how Im doing on a month by month basis.
He started with a 13 point bet! :doh

Anyway, you post all his bets on the forum...

You may even win funniest poster at the awards ceremony!

[vegyjones]

Contradictory statements,
Spraying premenitions,
Telling us all this is magic

You didn't write the bible did you? :doh

[sparkyminer]

If you have a 200pt as I suggested (£1000 and £5 per pt) 13 in a row is no problem. .
13 in a row.
Your 13th bet will be 233pts. The total of 13 bets would have been 607pts. Now call me a bit simple but 607pts loss is a big problem for a 200pt bank. :D

[wb]

13 in a row.
Your 13th bet will be 233pts. The total of 13 bets would have been 607pts. Now call me a bit simple but 607pts loss is a big problem for a 200pt bank. :D

not if it is magic money :D

[vegyjones]

Now look what you've all done ;fire

Finnn isn't replying anymore!

You've upset him :(

Either that or he's gone to get his medication :)

[finnpark]

13 in a row.
Your 13th bet will be 233pts. The total of 13 bets would have been 607pts. Now call me a bit simple but 607pts loss is a big problem for a 200pt bank. :D

No it wouldn't and it wasn't.

Once you reach 36 you go back to 1pt again - thats the system. So you would not need a bank of 233pts as you say. The results showed this.

[sparkyminer]

oops wrong system. :D

[finnpark]

not if it is magic money :D

Again, for the 4th time I think.

200pts £5 per pt = £1000. Not exactly magic money.

My bet tonight:

Live premier league snooker tonight:

My aim is to make £85 again tonight on frame by frame betting. Im going with Stepen Maguire and my bank is set for Davis going 5-0 up and Maguire been 1/2. I will probably make my handy £85 in 1st 3 frames.

Its also very very exciting and a great buzz when he wins. You then must stop.

NOT backing Ronnie tonight.

[mathare]

We have a sports betting section. Put the tips up there in a clear, easy to follow format then and we can all make £85 tonight.

[finnpark]

From the very first post.
Make your bloody mind up! :anger

That was the MartinGale system - we are talking about the 2nd system - read all the posts before posing.

[sparkyminer]

That was the MartinGale system - we are talking about the 2nd system - read all the posts before posing.
I've altered it and I'm not a poser.:)

[finnpark]

We have a sports betting section. Put the tips up there in a clear, easy to follow format then and we can all make £85 tonight.


Im afraid I won't have time. I have to study each frame and make my mind up before next frame starts. I try to get my bet on early for next frame as Paddypower stops betting on next frame quite quickly. I then use Bertfair if this occurs. I won't be posting any frame by frame tips - you can work that out.

I guarantee you I will have my £85 made by frame 4 at worst.

[vegyjones]

If you don't tell us how beforehand, how do we know you aren't poting a load of old rubbish!

[finnpark]

If you don't tell us how beforehand, how do we know you aren't poting a load of old rubbish!

I am not sure if your actually been serious or are this stupid.

Anyway Tonight:

I will be laying Steve Davis or Betting on his opponent on EVERY frame until Davis loses a frame. So once Stephen Maguire wins a frame I stop.

Frame 1: I put on enough to win £85

Frame 2: I put on enough to win loss of frame 1 + £85 pure profit.

And so on.

I stop once he actually wins a frame which could be frame 3 or 4 but will probably be frame 1 or 2.

I only lose if he loses 6-0. I win if he wins a single frame.

I would be able to win more than £85 but I don't have enough to guarantee this if he goes 5-0 down - which simply won't happen as these 2 players are not worlds apart. I use Paddypower if I can at 5/6 usually.

[vegyjones]

And where do you place your bets, my few sheckles short of a shillings, friend? :)

[vegyjones]

Maguire is 4-6 to win the first frame with Paddy Power...

So to win £85 you need to bet £127-50

Assuming the odds do NOT change

To win your £127-50 back plus the £85 you are aiming for , you need to bet

£ 306.25

Should Davis go 2-0 up

You then need to recoup your £ 433-75 plus get your £85, so need to bet

about £ 750 -00

This gives me enough evidence to assume you are a coplete PRANNY!

Infact, any alternative swear word will do! :wink :D

[Onlyforfun]

I don't frequent this area of the forum, but had to come down and have a look at this thread. Every new punter tries this staking at least once and none who last more than a few months will use it again.


My tip if you must.

Stake 1,2,3,5 pts and if no winner go back to stake 1. It won't make your fortune but you will go bust less quickly. A bloke called Richard used to do very well out of it but never to the scale of profits I'v eseen quoted here.

Good luck and thanks for the entertainment.

[finnpark]

Maguire is 4-6 to win the first frame with Paddy Power...

So to win £85 you need to bet £127-50

Assuming the odds do NOT change

To win your £127-50 back plus the £85 you are aiming for , you need to bet

£ 306.25

Should Davis go 2-0 up

You then need to recoup your £ 433-75 plus get your £85, so need to bet

about £ 750 -00

This gives me enough evidence to assume you are a coplete PRANNY!

Infact, any alternative swear word will do! :wink :D

Like I say I have my bank in place. If Im skint then so beit. Im not afraid to put down the bet.

You are just looking for holes in the system.

Tonight I will put my money down and I will win £85. I have done most Wednesay nights with ease. Your problem is you don't trust my selection. I think carefully about all my selections.

I place my bets at Paddypower and have no problems. They have not started limiting my bets as of yet and I am prepared for this if they do.

Watch the professional make his £85 tonight.

As for £750, beleive me it can go a lot higher than this. I have the money and tonight I will buy some more.

[presto]

hi fin,

i am sceptical about this system, and have contemplated similar systems in the past. but rather thay just saying this system is madness let me sugguest you reduce your stakes drastically - maybe £10 MAX.

also thinking long term - i reckon the odd's of a 6-0 result are about 60/1
so taking the example of getting £85 per match

59 wins of £85 = £5015 profit
then the inevertable 6-0 comes along

will the profit £5015 cover the loss????
not worked it out yet - but i am guessing it won't.

there is also the matter of getting the bet on - say it is frame 4 and you need to get £5000 matched - i doupt a bookie will accept the bet - especially as if you have been continually winning you will get your max stake reduced.

so you take the bet to betfair - there is no way you could get matched without shortening the odd's drastically - this will also lead to bigger stakes to get matched at lower odd's.

[finnpark]

I don't frequent this area of the forum, but had to come down and have a look at this thread. Every new punter tries this staking at least once and none who last more than a few months will use it again.


My tip if you must.

Stake 1,2,3,5 pts and if no winner go back to stake 1. It won't make your fortune but you will go bust less quickly. A bloke called Richard used to do very well out of it but never to the scale of profits I'v eseen quoted here.

Good luck and thanks for the entertainment.

It is differnet for everyone. Depends how good you are at slecting winners. For me I have my systems and I constantly bet on paper and also make £200+ per week from betting. I want to make £1000 per week - thats my aim.

[mathare]

Watch the professional make his £85 tonight.I bet Keith is :flush himself as you clearly know far more than he does as a pro.

[finnpark]

hi fin,

i am sceptical about this system, and have contemplated similar systems in the past. but rather thay just saying this system is madness let me sugguest you reduce your stakes drastically - maybe £10 MAX.

also thinking long term - i reckon the odd's of a 6-0 result are about 60/1
so taking the example of getting £85 per match

59 wins of £85 = £5015 profit
then the inevertable 6-0 comes along

will the profit £5015 cover the loss????
not worked it out yet - but i am guessing it won't.

there is also the matter of getting the bet on - say it is frame 4 and you need to get £5000 matched - i doupt a bookie will accept the bet - especially as if you have been continually winning you will get your max stake reduced.

so you take the bet to betfair - there is no way you could get matched without shortening the odd's drastically - this will also lead to bigger stakes to get matched at lower odd's.

I have had no problems to date with getting bets on. My brother got more than 5000 matched with Paddypower - he went for Jimmy White who just won 1 frame. He picked a terrible player.

No selection I make will lose 6-0. I bet on favourites only and I carefully make my mind up. Im not sure who if anyone I will bet on next week. Just watch tonight - he won't even go 3-0 down never mind 6-0. Have you any clue about snooker at all?

[Onlyforfun]

It is differnet for everyone. Depends how good you are at slecting winners. For me I have my systems and I constantly bet on paper and also make £200+ per week from betting. I want to make £1000 per week - thats my aim.

I'm not too shabby, had a few runs of 9 or 10 in a row (posted on here) this summer and was romping along, then it all went to pot and I couldn't buy a winner and I rarely bet over 4/1, with plenty at smaller odds. Any kind of staking like this and I'd have bust a VERY hard won bank.

From what I can see you aren't very good at selecting winners, you are basing your selections very much on the price alone and while in the long term the market is always right to within a few %, in the short term it can be drastically wrong. I can dig up the list of the 40 or so consecutive losing favs if you want to see what it looks like. Run your staking against it and see how long you would last.

There is no such thing as a sure thing, and the extreme event only has to happen once for you to be skint. Look at the punters busy laying Kicking King at 1000.0 when he supposedly wouldn't run in the Gold Cup. Ask them if there is such a thing as an impossible outcome.

As for getting your bets on, no bookie is going to let you stake £5k on a frame of snooker, and are likely to let you stake the 85,170,340,680,1360,2720 (at a very generous evs) totalling 5355 and then limit your stakes to £100 giving you no chance of getting it back. Just ask yourself why if this works, the bookies are still in business.

[vegyjones]

Watch the professional make his £85 tonight.

:laugh :laugh :laugh
You claim to be a professional...

Why do you talk like a MUG! :D

[presto]

I have had no problems to date with getting bets on. My brother got more than 5000 matched with Paddypower - he went for Jimmy White who just won 1 frame. He picked a terrible player.

No selection I make will lose 6-0. I bet on favourites only and I carefully make my mind up. Im not sure who if anyone I will bet on next week. Just watch tonight - he won't even go :hoho: :hoho: 3-0 down never mind 6-0. Have you any clue about snooker at all?

fin it was a genuine sugguestion.

and you obviously don't know anything about the people on this forum, - let me simplyfy it for you - many people on this forum are well educated in the art of gambling, with many years of experience and know what they are talking about, and make a fair bit of profit. - so they dont appreciate it when some cocky little :icon_tong tells them they are a bunch of mug's.

do i know anything about snooker - YES, - i traded on the last premier league with great success, and indeed many other snooker event's.


Watch the professional make his £85 tonight.

proffessional :doh - you totally dismiss the 'worst case scenario' use the 'martingale system' and claim to be a pro punter :hoho: :hoho: :hoho: :hoho:

by the way - i do think maguire will win tonight, but don't think for 1 minuit that if maguire wins that makes you 'god's gift to the forum' - as wee can only tell if a system is successfull over an extended period of time.

[finnpark]

From what I can see you aren't very good at selecting winners, you are basing your selections very much on the price alone

Where did I say that? I only bet on horses that I get are pretty sure. I try to select 1 per day but some weeks I go 3 or 4 days without a selection - I am very careful.

Your pts are taken on board but Steve Davis will never win 6-0. You really can put your house on it - THERE IS NO RISK. He will probably lose the 1st.

[finnpark]

fin it was a genuine sugguestion.

and you obviously don't know anything about the people on this forum, - let me simplyfy it for you - many people on this forum are well educated in the art of gambling, with many years of experience and know what they are talking about, and make a fair bit of profit. - so they dont appreciate it when some cocky little :icon_tong tells them they are a bunch of mug's.

do i know anything about snooker - YES, - i traded on the last premier league with great success, and indeed many other snooker event's.



proffessional :doh - you totally dismiss the 'worst case scenario' use the 'martingale system' and claim to be a pro punter :hoho: :hoho: :hoho: :hoho:

by the way - i do think maguire will win tonight, but don't think for 1 minuit that if maguire wins that makes you 'god's gift to the forum' - as wee can only tell if a system is successfull over an extended period of time.

I didn't read all of this but you know Im right - you have admitted there near the end. Maguire will probably win the match nevermind just 1 frame.

Think about it: 1 frame , you would nearly win this yourself.

[finnpark]

:laugh :laugh :laugh
You claim to be a professional...

Why do you talk like a MUG! :D

Im obviously speaking to 'Presto' here. Everytime you post something Presto posts about 1 to 5 minutes later, so obviously your both all in the one. Pretty sad really.

Watch the professional make his £85 tonight :D :D :D .

$$$$$$$ GUARANTEED CASH £££££££

Get on Maguire Tonight to make your desired profit.

[vegyjones]

:laugh :laugh :laugh

Presto gonna love you :laugh :laugh :laugh

[presto]

Im obviously speaking to 'Presto' here. Everytime you post something Presto posts about 1 to 5 minutes later, so obviously your both all in the one. Pretty sad really.

.

word's fail me, :yikes:

i have never heard anything more rediculous......................... no wait a minuit, i read something this afternoon, what was it?

i am acutally in a bit of shock here, could it be true - is my insomnia, leading to split presonalities, - no thats 'fight club' isn't it.

wouldn't you agree presto.......... erm i mean vegy.

[presto]

for the recoed that was 8 minuit's :D

[wb]

I only bet on horses that I get are pretty sure. .

this is what makes me certain you are not a 'pro' as you like to call yourself. There are no 'sure' things in racing. If you dont know that..... well then you are wasting everyones time.

But, to give you the benifit of the doubt... lets assume you have a good knack at picking horses..... why do you need such a risky system then?? If your selections were so good, you would not risk so much for so little. If you were really good at picking winners, there are far les risky staking plans to protect your bank and make a tidy profit



Your pts are taken on board but Steve Davis will never win 6-0. You really can put your house on it - THERE IS NO RISK. He will probably lose the 1st.

there is no secret about the snooker tonight. I know little about snooker, but still have a fair idea of the way it will go... but gambling is about LONG TERM results.

and the fact that you will not post your selections in the fun bets section LONG TERM does nothing for your credibility.

Anyone could come on a forum and say ' I backed this that and the other - and now my bank is x'

[vegyjones]

Yes it was Vegy... :splapme I mean Presto! :D

[finnpark]

this is what makes me certain you are not a 'pro' as you like to call yourself. There are no 'sure' things in racing. If you dont know that..... well then you are wasting everyones time.

But, to give you the benifit of the doubt... lets assume you have a good knack at picking horses..... why do you need such a risky system then?? If your selections were so good, you would not risk so much for so little. If you were really good at picking winners, there are far les risky staking plans to protect your bank and make a tidy profit




there is no secret about the snooker tonight. I know little about snooker, but still have a fair idea of the way it will go... but gambling is about LONG TERM results.

and the fact that you will not post your selections in the fun bets section LONG TERM does nothing for your credibility.

Anyone could come on a forum and say ' I backed this that and the other - and now my bank is x'

Hi,

Im glad to see a decent post on the forum.

Every pt you make is valid too.

However, I must say again "Pretty Sure", I didn't say sure. Pretty sure to me means that I would expect a high strike rate.

Yes I have mad a nice profit from betting, actually I have made a lot. But I want more and I think the 2 systems mentioned here are great.

As regards the fun bets, I cannot really post snooker frame/frame. Im just not going to.

I don't care too much about credibility as long as my betting accounts go up - I came on this forum to convinve a few people that the systems work but I lose nothing if people don't take my advice.

Long Term: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES LIKE TONIGHT'S IN THE SNOOKER ARISE lots of time. I also do the system on the FTSE 100 when it goes 5 days in a row up or vica versa. Since 1984 8 in a row has been the record so again it is guaranteed.

Take soccer: When Man Utd go just 4 games without a win I start a system (or just 2 home games). Any time a new record is set by a football team (eg consecutive wins in a row) then you should start a system laying that team. I was successful with Juventus 1st week after they set their new record. Wigan Athletic are a good team to start laying now - i think they are at home next so good odds too. Lets see how I get on.

One final word on this forum tonight. Never use the system with paper tipsters as they could let you down more than than the 2 times a year I allow.

[finnpark]

Vegy/Presto (he is the 1 person) ,put that footer in. Pathetic. Anyway off to make money 2night , Im so excited. Handy money.

[wb]

again, for the last time, post your selections in the fun bets, fair enough, it would be hard frame by frame in the snooker, so I dont mean that,

but how about the football??.

why not post your footie bets BEFORE the game, give us a STARTING BANK and a DAILY P&L. also update your RUNNING BANK TOTAL.

Unless you do something like this, no one will take you seriously on this forum. Again, there is no point in telling us what you backed AFTER the race/game/frame

Well?

[presto]

Vegy/Presto (he is the 1 person) ,put that footer in. Pathetic. Anyway off to make money 2night , Im so excited. Handy money.

the prem league is on tomorrow, :doh

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Am I the only one here who would simply go and check the odds against a whitewash over on Betfair and lay it? You don't need a staking system then.

[bigcumba]

Watch the professional make his £85 tonight.


Think I'll leave that sort of thing to Stan Collymore....

[piggy]

why don't you leave the guy alone you bullies especially you vegy/presto poor bloke comes here makes a few posts and you ::swear::swear::swear::swear him off, lets see how he does first before slating him, just remember different strokes for different folks what works for one won't work for others.

[MattR]

Am I the only one here who would simply go and check the odds against a whitewash over on Betfair and lay it? You don't need a staking system then.


That would make more sense you'd think. Just lay 6-0 Davis for £85 stake if you're that certain it won't happen.

[mathare]

I also do the system on the FTSE 100 when it goes 5 days in a row up or vica versa. Since 1984 8 in a row has been the record so again it is You do like that word don't you? :ermmm

[finnpark]

That would make more sense you'd think. Just lay 6-0 Davis for £85 stake if you're that certain it won't happen.

I would have done this but who would take it? To lay him you need someone willing to take the bet - I can't find this plus my way I usually win within 1st 2 frames anyway so it will never get to big stakes.

[finnpark]

why don't you leave the guy alone you bullies especially you vegy/presto poor bloke comes here makes a few posts and you ::swear::swear::swear::swear him off, lets see how he does first before slating him, just remember different strokes for different folks what works for one won't work for others.

Cheers.

Samson des Galas 1pt win in 1.10 market rasen.

Its a handicap but all I need is 1 winner from 9 :D so this is my 1st.

[Onlyforfun]

So why do you think PP will take the bet. Know why?

Its because they know that eventually you will get to bet number 6 and you will be backing someone at 1/60 or so to win a frame (£2720 to win £85 after 5 at evens + £2635 previous stakes). If you get to that stage come to me and I'll match you on Betfair 10% higher than best odds you can get anywhere!

To anyone who understands maths and gambling they will see that you only get value in your first bet, as you try to recover your loss you are betting at shorter and shorter odds giving more and more of an edge to the layer. I'm no expert on this type of snooker but one whitewash will take you 60 matches to recover, and I'm willing to wager that with the type of personality that takes on this "system" you will risk everything on that last bet to recover. I'm tempted to take you on for real money just to teach you a valuable lesson that we all learned in the early days which is "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is".

(And did you realise PP is good mates with a few of the players you are betting on?)

[MattR]

I would have done this but who would take it? To lay him you need someone willing to take the bet - I can't find this plus my way I usually win within 1st 2 frames anyway so it will never get to big stakes.

Fair point, but you could lay as much as you can get before the start then you'll be looking for less to win, therefore starting with a smaller first bet at least, making the increase (should he go 3, 4 frames before winning one) a lot smaller.

[finnpark]

So why do you think PP will take the bet. Know why?

Its because they know that eventually you will get to bet number 6 and you will be backing someone at 1/60 or so to win a frame (£2720 to win £85 after 5 at evens + £2635 previous stakes). If you get to that stage come to me and I'll match you on Betfair 10% higher than best odds you can get anywhere!

To anyone who understands maths and gambling they will see that you only get value in your first bet, as you try to recover your loss you are betting at shorter and shorter odds giving more and more of an edge to the layer. I'm no expert on this type of snooker but one whitewash will take you 60 matches to recover, and I'm willing to wager that with the type of personality that takes on this "system" you will risk everything on that last bet to recover. I'm tempted to take you on for real money just to teach you a valuable lesson that we all learned in the early days which is "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is".

(And did you realise PP is good mates with a few of the players you are betting on?)

you are always looking at worst case scenario - have faith in my selection

[wb]

you are always looking at worst case scenario - have faith in my selection
Thats what gambling is about - being prepared for the worst case scenario!!! you dont seem to get this concept that although gambling is about risk, it is also about minimising risk and it is about protecting the bank.

because as much faith as you have, and as much as you like to deny it.............. sometimes things go wrong :yikes:

if you think they will never go wrong................. well, im glad you are not my bank manager

[finnpark]

Thats what gambling is about - being prepared for the worst case scenario!!! you dont seem to get this concept that although gambling is about risk, it is also about minimising risk and it is about protecting the bank.

because as much faith as you have, and as much as you like to deny it.............. sometimes things go wrong :yikes:

if you think they will never go wrong................. well, im glad you are not my bank manager

But you have to make sure worst case scenario won't happen - only bet when opposite result is impossible - like steve davis winning 6-0 :D .

I know what im doing and if i lose my bank like the people on here then i will stop and say the same as them but i think it will work for me because i have patience to wait for the right opportunity.

Also, in horse racing the betting before the off helps reduce long losing runs dramatically.

[wb]

- only bet when opposite result is impossible - .

This is where we will never agree then. Nothing is impossible in horse racing. Ok snooker, it may be easier to predict results, but with horse racing... that kind of statment does not stand up

have you ever heard of a horse falling before :yikes: It actually happens believe it or not :yikes:

[wb]

but how about the football??.

why not post your footie bets BEFORE the game, give us a STARTING BANK and a DAILY P&L. also update your RUNNING BANK TOTAL.

Unless you do something like this, no one will take you seriously on this forum. Again, there is no point in telling us what you backed AFTER the race/game/frame

Well?

I think i have said all I can really. Unless you put your money where your mouth is, and post selections and staking BEFORE the event, (like everone else here) no one will take you seriously.

[Onlyforfun]

But you have to make sure worst case scenario won't happen - only bet when opposite result is impossible - like steve davis winning 6-0 :D .

This is not impossible. If Davis is 5-0 up ar eyou really going to bet at odds worse than 1/60 that he will win the next frame?


I know what im doing .

Open to debate!


Also, in horse racing the betting before the off helps reduce long losing runs dramatically.

What? What do you mean?

[finnpark]

This is not impossible. If Davis is 5-0 up ar eyou really going to bet at odds worse than 1/60 that he will win the next frame?



Open to debate!



What? What do you mean?

frame 1 down - this frame he will do it :D . Easy - what the pro collect his £86.78.

If you can see the betting before off you get a better idea who is going to win. If forecast price of a horse is 2/1 and bookies open it at 7/2 you know it has no chance.

Watch me take in the cash - the pt is he won't go 5-0 up so don't worry. Trust me on this.

[finnpark]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

EASY! :spinning I was hoping for a little excitement tonight but as usual Ive got my cash within 2 frames. Im going to have to think about increasing my stakes.

YOU ALWAYS THINK: "That will never work, you will get caught sometime".

But if you are acreful enough you won't.

Poor Paddypower, how more longer can they keep losing £85. Thats 9 now in a row.

Not backing any more tonight but i hope to post some more sure events to use the system on soon.

Im considering laying wigan but i think the odds will be too poor.

Anyway, hope you all made £85+ tonight on my advice.

lET ME KNOW WHO WINS THE SNOOKER :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
:icon_tong :rolleyes: :anger :wink :spinning

[vegyjones]

With each new post, you are showing yourself up to be more of a moron than we already think you are! :ermmm

[presto]

exactly presto,


If you can see the betting before off you get a better idea who is going to win. If forecast price of a horse is 2/1 and bookies open it at 7/2 you know it has no chance.

yep never happened - no drifter has ever won, :doh

[wb]

again, for the last time, post your selections in the fun bets, fair enough, it would be hard frame by frame in the snooker, so I dont mean that,

but how about the football??.

why not post your footie bets BEFORE the game, give us a STARTING BANK and a DAILY P&L. also update your RUNNING BANK TOTAL.

Unless you do something like this, no one will take you seriously on this forum. Again, there is no point in telling us what you backed AFTER the race/game/frame

Well?



??????????????????????????????????????????????? well how about it????????????????????????????

[wb]

hang on here.......

i think this is keith or somebody taking the P**s :D

[bigcumba]

If forecast price of a horse is 2/1 and bookies open it at 7/2 you know it has no chance.


;fire That's possibly the biggest pile of crap this side of Old McDonald's farm..... as has already been said, with every post you become more of an arrogant :butthead: , and the worst possible sort - one who actually believes the bull they prattle on about, and one who simply cannot be wrong.

[Profit Seeker]

frame 1 down - this frame he will do it :D . Easy - what the pro collect his £86.78.

If you can see the betting before off you get a better idea who is going to win. If forecast price of a horse is 2/1 and bookies open it at 7/2 you know it has no chance.

Watch me take in the cash - the pt is he won't go 5-0 up so don't worry. Trust me on this.

A 7/2 shot has a 7/2's chance whether it drifted from 1/100 or came in from 5000/1. Read this wee thread on drifters. http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=32630

[finnpark]

A 7/2 shot has a 7/2's chance whether it drifted from 1/100 or came in from 5000/1. Read this wee thread on drifters. http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=32630

To be honest with you sir, watching the betting trends has saved me a fortune over the year.

Drifters do win but most are false drifts ie Forecast price of 2/1, opens 8/11 and drifts out to 9/4. (extreme case).

[wb]

For about the fifth and last time now :yikes: :yikes: ............................




how about the football??.

why not post your footie bets BEFORE the game, give us a STARTING BANK and a DAILY P&L. also update your RUNNING BANK TOTAL.

Unless you do something like this, no one will take you seriously on this forum. Again, there is no point in telling us what you backed AFTER the race/game/frame

Well?

Whats wrong, I thought you trust your staking?

[vegyjones]

This Drifters A Winner! :wink

[bigcumba]

so are these....

[vegyjones]

Err, If you say so BigC, if you say so :D

[Profit Seeker]

Regarding losing runs and your hysterical comment about if you can't pick a winner in 10 runs you shouldn't be betting, well why don't you show us an example. Be selective as you like, one bet a week if you like. I can guarantee you'll have a bigger losing run than that. You could perhaps pick odds ons only, very small chance 10 odds ons in a row will lose, but I can also guarantee you couldn't profit from it if you did. The JTS system on this site sees losing runs of 70 or so, but still in profit since it started.

[tophatter]

Been watching this thread with amusment without adding to it.

To say if you get 10 losers in a row when gambling you should give up is an absolute nonsence. I would say if you can get 10 losers in a row and still profit long term that is the mark of a good gambler. Any gambler basing his hopes, dreams and bank only on the part of the equation that is the selections is not doing his job properly.

Sure you can last weeks, maybe months without the disaster striking and in that time you will find it easy, easy, easy but the longer you get away with it the bigger the trouble you are storing up. You carry on getting cocky son and you will catch the cold sometime, somewhere when the maths gets to work. Remember what I tell you, that when the game is as easy as it gets and you cant seem to lose then the longer that feeling lasts the bigger the hangover is going to be. You can not cheat maths.

[Profit Seeker]

The only thing of interest is the snooker. Made me scan the different markets. There are some virtually guaranteed bets to be had, but the problem is always the liquidity.

[vegyjones]

Yes, that Maguire was odds on to win the Embassy World Championships wasn't he? :doh

[Profit Seeker]

Don't know, was he?

[vegyjones]

No, he wasn't! :)

[finnpark]

Been watching this thread with amusment without adding to it.

To say if you get 10 losers in a row when gambling you should give up is an absolute nonsence. I would say if you can get 10 losers in a row and still profit long term that is the mark of a good gambler. Any gambler basing his hopes, dreams and bank only on the part of the equation that is the selections is not doing his job properly.

Sure you can last weeks, maybe months without the disaster striking and in that time you will find it easy, easy, easy but the longer you get away with it the bigger the trouble you are storing up. You carry on getting cocky son and you will catch the cold sometime, somewhere when the maths gets to work. Remember what I tell you, that when the game is as easy as it gets and you cant seem to lose then the longer that feeling lasts the bigger the hangover is going to be. You can not cheat maths.

Just to clarify something:

When I say 10 losers in a row I mean selective choices. I wait for the right horse to come along, I am patient and hit it hard when I see a horse that I beleive is "sure". In this way if I were to get 10 in a row (even 7 or 8) I would give it up. Some weeks I do not back anything.

Also, most of my betting is on Irish racing. The betting trends in Ireland count for more. You get odds on favs losing but not too many. Take yesterday at Clonmel I think 4 favs won out of 7. Money counts for more.

Anyway Im glad I proved a lot of you wrong last night - it never goes to the 5th or 6th frame so don't worry. But I would advise to stop once your player wins a frame - don't be greedy in case you run out of frames.

My biggest fear with the system is a Power Cut. Yes this is a genuine concern or a PC failure or Internet failure.

Apart from that it is easy cash.

[mathare]

Oh Finn, I'm starting to love your posts so much I almost want to rep you for them :D

[presto]

Anyway Im glad I proved a lot of you wrong last night - it never goes to the 5th or 6th frame so don't worry. But I would advise to stop once your player wins a frame - don't be greedy in case you run out of frames

you proved us lot wrong did you :hoho:
you have won 1 selection - that proves nothing. maybee after a few hundred + you can start to form conclusions.

it never goes to the 5th or 6th frame - wrong again muppet. - below is last seasons semi-finals / final - they all were washouts. 100% 3/3!!!!!!!!

Saturday May 8 Report
Final
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Mark Williams
Friday May 7 Report
Semi-finals
Ronnie O'Sullivan 5-0 Stephen Hendry
Mark Williams 5-0 Marco Fu

[presto]

Yes, in relation to snooker Stephen Hendry will be odds on - but the snooker is guaranteed
guaranteed you say ?

What is the chance of Stephen Hendry going 6-0 down
what about the 5-0 loss in the prem league semi-final. - now that wasn't many games at all away, was it.

[vegyjones]

Yes, but it wasn't 6 Vegy! :D

[wb]

Just to clarify something:


When I wait for the right horse to come along, I am patient and hit it hard when I see a horse that I beleive is "sure".

.

My biggest fear with the system is a Power Cut. Yes this is a genuine concern or a PC failure or Internet failure.

Apart from that it is easy cash.


What happens when your 'sure' hosre falls, and you are staking loads to win a few quid.

One other question: how long have you been gambling?

[finnpark]

guaranteed you say ?

what about the 5-0 loss in the prem league semi-final. - now that wasn't many games at all away, was it.

Was he favourite?

I stated: 'Against a weaker opponent'.

I had a very profitable day today at level stake - not many favourites winning at Wexford but Im getting on very nicely indeed :D .

[vegyjones]

:laugh :laugh :laugh

I won £25,000 on Kausse De Thaix mate! :wink :D

[vegyjones]

I'll tell you who I won £150,000 backing tomorrow night! :laugh

[presto]

I'll tell you who I won £150,000 backing tomorrow night! :laugh

thats small time,
i made £9,823,884.00** in 4 days :uoyurs :uoyurs :uoyurs













** - indicated using a stupid muppet system :D

[vegyjones]

Why are you giving yourself the finger?? Ooo

[presto]

Why are you giving yourself the finger?? Ooo

you know it turns me on :ass1

[MarcusMel]

I don't know why everyone is attacking this. Clearly this is NOT a system but METHOD betting. No one should be critisized for method betting if it works for them.
The mistake the poster is making is in calling the way he bets a system.

Experience and time are great teachers so if the method works for him great otherwise just recognise the stupid mistake and stop trying to explain the obvious to someone who does not want to listen.

[wb]

I don't know why everyone is attacking this. Clearly this is NOT a system but METHOD betting. No one should be critisized for method betting if it works for them.
The mistake the poster is making is in calling the way he bets a system.

Experience and time are great teachers so if the method works for him great otherwise just recognise the stupid mistake and stop trying to explain the obvious to someone who does not want to listen.

The reason im getting p**sed off with it is because he is coming on and making claims that he wont back up. If you read my past 5 or 6 posts, I asked him to put his bets up before the event. He has not replied, and puts up irritating post about being a pro, or if you have ten losers in a row you should not be betting. or how much he has made etc. These claims are ridicilous, I consider myself a novice after a few years of betting and I think that they are silly, even if he is a novice. Most people come on here to learn, and also to pass on advice if they have any. this guy comes across as very condensending.

I agree that it is not a system. He is using method bets with a really risky staking plan. My whole problem is that he wont post before the event. the only event he posted was the snooker, where my pet budgie could have predicted the result. I'd like to see some horses posted BEFORE the race, what stake, and a running bank total, because at first, i thought it was interesting and entertaining, but at this stage it is just getting annoying.

if he posted his selections, and proved he can profit LONG TERM, I will be the first to congratulate him, and even follow his tips. I just cant see that happening though.

[MarcusMel]

Fair enough - if anyone on the forum consistantly after times with their posts just neg rep them or ask for their posts to be deleted. It's not a major issue.

If someone wants to share their joy at a big-ish win or their excitement of a bet they have made that is also understandable. If you see it as boasting thats your problem not his/hers. Tell them you think their over the top boasting or don't bother opening any posts by that member.

If they try to entice you to pay for their services then we ban them.

[MarcusMel]

As far as I can tell fin has just said that the martingdale system works for him and he method bets, everyone else has been saying it doesn't work AS A STAKING PLAN IN A SYSTEM fin has only ever posted in this thread, the reaction of the forum seems a bit over the top.

[wb]

ok marcusmel, perhaps the reaction was a bit much, but the people on here are just trying to advise. As I said earlier, im a novice so im in no place to give great advice but remember, there are a lot of people who are only beginning to bet and are searching the internet for forums, they may see this plan here and loose a bank over it, and they will think the best gambling forum (in my opinion) is crap, because the posts are not questioned. That is why we need to question systems, staking plans etc. I am currently running a mythical bank, and would be happy answer or explain my selections. When I signed up first, I followed all sorts of tips posted, and after a while I knew which ones to drop.
As i said, I welcome anyone posting ideas, but you must be prepared to let your ideas be scrutinised. If they are good enough, they will prove everybody wrong, but for finn to prove his system works, he shoud post some selections for fun.

to finn: sorry if the reaction was over the top, but posting statements like 'someone should not bet if you have ten losers in a row' is insulting to some people on the forum. I have often had 10 losers, but still do ok overall. I hope you are willing to take advice as well as give it. and again, I would suggest posting before the event. I hope you make money from this, i really do - I hate to see anyone lose money betting, but don't forget there are some actual pro's here (not me) and they may find some of your posts a bit annoying. Again, I love debating about systems/methods and racing etc, so I am not trying to slate you

Hope it goes well,

Wayne

[bigcumba]

I think the reason we've taken umbrage at Finnpark is not so much his method and staking, more his attitude. Arrogance like his wins no friends but makes many enemies and I think most of the guys on here have been pretty tolerant considering the way he's conducted himself. He's heading down the same road as a few former members of the forum who couldn't take any criticism because they were right and everyone else was wrong.... I have no wish to see him banned like those others were, but on the other hand I'd also like him to actually listen and take on board some of what we're telling him, and I'm telling him right now to watch his attitude.

[Roberto]

posting statements like 'someone should not bet if you have ten losers in a row' is insulting to some people on the forum.
Agreed.

This is really why there was a problem here, Marcus.

Some of Finn's posts were insulting to people, and when they tried (in my case very politely and quite repeatedly) to explain why he might be mistaken, the reaction was simply "No; I'm right and you're wrong".

Coming from someone who had previously stated that his intention here was to educate himself (and let's face it: there are very few better places on the internet where one could do that in this sphere!), this was really pretty rude. The problem here wasn't "differences of opinion" as it might have appeared at first glance, it was really rudeness.

This is, in short, a chap who doesn't understand why there's an inverse proprotionality between strike-rate and ROI in betting, and won't be told either. He probably imagines that the higher your strike-rate, the more money you make. And like many people who have failed to grasp one of the fundamentals, if anything he reads in response to him suggests that, he feels threatened and becomes rude. "Negative rep", however that works, can only make a problem like that worse, not better.


I think most of the guys on here have been pretty tolerant considering the way he's conducted himself.
I completely agree, BigC.

[tophatter]

Marcus, I dont care if it is a system or method, picking the selections, he is using a staking system which he declares safe as no one should gamble if they pick more than 10 losing bets in a row.

Everyone knows you never get to bet 10 on staking systems like this anyhow as the stakes get too big for a normal punter before then. But to use phrases like Garanteed win and 10 losing bets and you should quit needs to be challenged as they are not something many gamblers would agree with.

I aint got no beef with him but when people start any post with the words eaaaassssssyyyy (with many more e.a.s.y.'s than that) then I will point out why it is not easy not for their own good but for anyone who might be new to gambling who might be reading. The bigger the hyperbole in a thread, the more sorry the ending usually when it comes to gambling.

[sparkyminer]

I'm telling him right now to watch his attitude.
You don't f :censored: :censored: k with BigC. :D

[bigcumba]

You don't f :censored: :censored: k with BigC. :D

Especially when I'm in a good mood :D

[sparkyminer]

You at work mate?

[bigcumba]

You at work mate?

Yeah, sadly!

[MarcusMel]

All very good points and my thanks for your taking the time to post them.

Let us hope that Finn now understands that we were not actually attacking but were trying to impart our understanding of the maths of betting and it is up to him wether he believes in Maths or his ability to know when to bet.

[vegyjones]

I was attacking him :D

Finn, where are you,

I wanna fight! :wink

[vegyjones]

And why I am in the mood few other members I don't like -

Keith - This bloke makes me laugh, the amout of spam I have to delete that he psosts about his website :mad:

BigC - Because he is Scottish :mad:

For the same reason please add (Radders, OnlyForFun, Larsson, Bill etc) :mad:

Sparkyminer - Because of his involvement in illegal activities, well at least I've heard he works underground! :mad:

Tophatter / John - Because of their tendancies to stay up late :mad:

Mathare / John / Iron Chris - Because of their affinity to a much loathed northern football club - Hull City I think :mad:

[mathare]

Get a job Veg :D

[vegyjones]

Is that an offer! :D

[mathare]

Is that an offer! :DYeah, if you want to come and work for me

[wb]

never seen a thread move off its topic quite like this one :)

[vegyjones]

Yeah, if you want to come and work for me
How much you offering? :yikes:

And are there any perks?? :D

[mathare]

How much you offering? :yikes:

And are there any perks?? :DYou have to pay us. And the perks are working for me :D

[mathare]

never seen a thread move off its topic quite like this one :)Check any other thread Vegy has posted in :)

[vegyjones]

You have to pay us. And the perks are working for me :D
AGREED!

When can I start! :D