Best odds against favourite of the day.

[Merlin]

3.05 Newton Abbot – SCALLOWAY at 5/4

[Merlin]

Forgot to mention - dont go betting these.......have no stats or idea how it will pan out......I only thought it up last night.........:yikes:

The basic idea is to be on an in form horse who is not being asked to do something he/she hasnt done before , with a jockey on who knows the animal - and is forecast at odds against.......anything near a 40% strike , I will be well pleased....

[MarcusMel]

How do you define 'in form horse'? I might be able to put some stats together for you from Jan 1st 05.

[Merlin]

Thanks MM....

A horse that won last time out........within 30 days..............in the same or higher class than todays race:yikes:

[MarcusMel]

Ok I will get to work on sorting out some results for you tonight after the racing.

[MarcusMel]

Hmmm Class might be a bit tricky though, prize money and Class seem to be very different things and they have redefined race classes too ;fire.

[Merlin]

STATS
................
SELECTIONS 1
WINNERS 0
LSP -1
.....................
THURSDAYS QUALIFIER(S)

3.30 CARL - QUANTICA @ 9/2
4.00 CARL - HULA BALLEW @ 11/4
................................................

Strictly speaking I am only looking for 1 qualifier per day.........my filter makes HULA BALLEW the bet....but will keep a record of all qualifiers....

[Roberto]

I see you're not put off by "Merlin's Profit" running in the same race as Hula Ballew? Ooo

This has the makings of a very interesting thread ... watching with interest, here. Good luck!

[Merlin]

I will be betting Merlins Roberto.......:yikes:........owes me nothing......:yikes:

Got to be onest with these system/method selections.......even if you dont fancy the bugger................:laugh

[Merlin]

Looks the beginnings of a cracking Lay System here - with 2 favourites getting stuffed.........:yikes:

[Merlin]

FRIDAY QUALIFIERS
........................................
3.25 - JACKIE KIELY
3.45 – OUNINPOHJA

The selection is OUNINPOHA

[frontrunner]

Looks an interesting system merlin.......I am laying OUNINPOJA today because all his 4 wins been on left handed tracks :wink


Frontrunner
:spinning

[MarcusMel]

Can I ask why you rejected these selections?

Mersey Sound Newmarket.July 04:50
My Girl Pearl Chepstow 05:00

Or I have winner last time out distance winner less than 30 days
Al Alba Chepstow 3:55
Ceiriog Valley Haydock 5:10
Loop The Loup Newmarket.July 4:50
Night Storm Chepstow 4:30

[Merlin]

Sure MM....



Can I ask why you rejected these selections?

Mersey Sound Newmarket.July 04:50 (didnt win last time out)
My Girl Pearl Chepstow 05:00 (didnt win last time out)

Or I have winner last time out distance winner less than 30 days
Al Alba Chepstow 3:55 (not favourite)
Ceiriog Valley Haydock 5:10 (not favourite)
Loop The Loup Newmarket.July 4:50 (not favourite)
Night Storm Chepstow 4:30 (not favourite)

MM, the horse (in my flawed) logic must have won its last race, and be Racing Post Forecast favourite........

Good Luck Front......

[MarcusMel]

Ahhhh Thank you - Now I can refine the selection criteria.

The 7pound claimer on Jackie Kiely is worrying as they have never won on the horse.

[MarcusMel]

Ok Merl past data still only brings the SR to 27% (29% if you get rid of claiming jockies).

So your hoping for a 10% shift by having the jocky having rode the horse before:yikes:

57% of non claiming jockies make it to place the horse in the first three. HELLO PLACE LAY SYSTEM :D

[Merlin]

Thanks MM.......

When I suggested 40% I was being an optimistic dreamer .....:yikes:

I had no idea of the stats.........I just planned to post the selections and see which way the wind was blowing after about 100 live selections.....:yikes:

Could be a good lay system if they continue to get beat........in essence , although prima facie the horse is in form, and has a chance at the distance etc......They may well turn out to be bad value favourites.......:yikes:

Anything else you turn up would be most welcome......

[Merlin]

A winner.......dont know whether to rejoice or what.....:laugh........

[Merlin]

Stats
................
Selections 3
Winners 1
Lsp + 0.25

[frontrunner]

Well done Merlin, Take a bow I've finished licking my wounds


Frontrunner
:spinning

[Merlin]

I never rejoice at someone losing mate(unless ita a bookie).....but always admire the courage of someone putting their neck on the block..............

[Merlin]

besides.....you had valid reasons for laying this....and as I understand it , the horse hung badly left in the closing stages too.....

[Merlin]

Saturday
................
QUALIFIERS
...................

1.00 FOLK - ETCHING - 9/2
9.30 WOLV - REGAL DREAM - 7/2
.............................................

Selection is REGAL DREAM

Out of all the races available tommorow.........the selection is in the last race of the day at Woolybags......:yikes:

[Merlin]

SELECTION LOST YESTERDAY

SUNDAY
.............
QUALIFIERS
........................
FLYING KEY 2.10
moscow blue - 2.20
friendly request - 4.05

SELECTION IS:

2.10 - FLYING KEY

[Merlin]

Stats
................
Selections 5
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 1.75
...........................

STATS ALL QUALIFIERS
...............................
Selections 8
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 4.75

...............................

[Merlin]

MONDAY
................
QUALIFIERS

4.00 -FAIRGAME MAN AT 7/1
......................................

Just the 1 qualifier, so I guess thats the selection...

[Merlin]

Stats
................
Selections 6
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 2.75
...........................

STATS ALL QUALIFIERS
...............................
Selections 9
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 5.75


This is looking great for lays - and their all favourites (forcast favs)

[Merlin]

No Qualifiers Tuesday

[Merlin]

No SELECTIONS WEDNESDAY....

[Merlin]

Thursday
.................
5.05 - Pintle
4.20 - Love Angel
..................................
Selection Is : Pintle

[Merlin]

PINTLE WAS A NON RUNNER and LOVE ANGEL won at 6/4

[Merlin]

FRIDAY
..........
3.20 – PALACE EPISODE
5.15 – FEARLESS MEL


2 QUALIFIERS but the selection is PALACE EPISODE

[Merlin]

PALACE EPISODE DIDNT GO - FEARLESS MEL won at 5/2

[Merlin]

Saturday
.............
5.15 – Holbeck Ghyll

[Merlin]

Stats
................
Selections 6
Winners 1 (9/4)
LSP - 2.75
...........................

STATS ALL QUALIFIERS
...............................
Selections 12
Winners 3 (9/4)(6/4)(5/2)
LSP - 2.75 POINTS
........................................
If anyone wants to monitor these , please feel free to do so.....its only a trial with no money down..:yikes:

My Initial RULES
...............................

1) MUST HAVE WON LAST TIME OUT - WITHIN 30 DAYS
2) MUST HAVE WON IN TODAYS CLASS/GRADE
3) TODAYS JOCK MUST HAVE WON ON THE HORSE
4) MUST BE A DISTANCE WINNER
5) MUST BE CLEAR ODDS-AGAINST FAVOURITE IN THE RACING POST TISSUE
6) IF MULTIPLE SELECTIONS ON THE DAY USE AN ELIMINATOR FOR JUST THE ONE SELECTION – I was running with the selection with the highest official rating, although I have no idea if this was the best method to use.