bottom of the list sys.

[presto]

this system is just about as basic as you can get, and involves backing the horse at the bottom of the list ON BETFAIR, - thats it. my reasoning for comming up with this stupid idea is that the horse at the bottom of the list is generally the highest odd's, though i am not too bothered about the odd's - what i am bothered about is value, and i do beleive that these longshot's are overlooked by backers, and overlayed by layers.

another thing i may look into is backing the longest odd's - as these horses arnt always at the bottom.

i have been looking into this idea for quite a while, but without recording my selections, i have no hard evidence to show if it is profitable or not. and i would highly reccomend nobody follows this system as it is just going into testing. though what pushed me into the idea of starting recording my selections is that 2 would be selections have come in today @ 33/1 and 66/1 with the betfair price of 60 and 120 respectively.

as for recording my data in this thread - i will probably record the bets on a SS and just post the results at the end of the day as the bets will be placed as near to the off as possible, and this will save me updating every 10 mins.

i will have no money on these selections, and will calculate to a £1 level stake

[presto]

after day 4 (i will update on a weekly basis).

profit.............£165.00
adv odd's .......238.5
staked...........£62.00
bet's.............62
win's..............5
losses...........57
SR................8.06%
ROI..............266.13%


win's @:
39/1
124/1
21/1
14/1
18/1

[presto]

:REGamblMo :REGamblMo :REGamblMo

would you adam and eve it.

selection 1
elrafa mujahid 25/1 SP betfair 40
goes and bloody wins :hoho: :hoho: :hoho:

[presto]

day 1

02:40 sthl 1 elrafa mujahid 40 £1.00 1 £40.00
02:50 ling 1 screwdriver 20 £1.00 -£1.00
03:00 fak 1 black de bay 400 £1.00 -£1.00
03:10 sthl 1 wizardmicktee 180 £1.00 -£1.00
03:20 ling 1 miss shontaine 380 £1.00 -£1.00
03:30 fak 1 pick of the crop 150 £1.00 -£1.00
03:40 sthl 1 bluefield 200 £1.00 -£1.00
03:50 ling 1 team-mate 200 £1.00 -£1.00

couldn't have asked for a better start :)
but still early days - i am aiming to get atleast 1000 result's before i start to hypothesise any more.

- forgot to add commish - will sort it for tommorow.

[flaming norah]

Best of luck with this Presto, I was looking at something similar a few weeks ago but with everything else I was doing I wasn't recording the results regularly. It's definately worth looking into after all these horses do occasionally win and as you say they are a real value bet.

When i was looking at this, i suffered from a lack of knowledge of how betfair works. For example the horse listed at the bottom of betfair has say £10 on the blue square, does that mean you can place a bet of up to £10 and get it matched, or does that mean the maximum winnings currently avaiable are £10. Do you think that in the event this was a worthwhile system you would have any trouble getting bets matched at such high odds?

[mathare]

When i was looking at this, i suffered from a lack of knowledge of how betfair works. For example the horse listed at the bottom of betfair has say £10 on the blue square, does that mean you can place a bet of up to £10 and get it matched, or does that mean the maximum winnings currently avaiable are £10. Do you think that in the event this was a worthwhile system you would have any trouble getting bets matched at such high odds?The £10 means that someone will accept up to a £10 stake on that selection at those odds. Of course that tenner can be made up of several lower stakes or form part of a bigger stake (which will only be part matched at those odds). I think getting small bets (<£10) matched will be OK but the variation in odds attained by multiple followers of the system may vary quite a lot. If someone mops up the last £5 at 80 then the next person along may only get £2 at 75 for example. But as far as I can tell this sounds like a minimal stakes system due to the expected SR

[presto]

thanks FN

yes the cash number under the odd's is what is available to bet (at thoes odd's). so if it says:

150
£10

you can place a bet of £10 @ odds of 150 - so you stand to win £1500. - but i wouldn't worry too much, as even if it dosn't all get matched, there is still a good probability that it will soon get matched.

i would say that it will be hard to get matched at good odd's unless you place the bet within a few minuit's of the off, as this is where all the liquidity is, so you tend to get better odd's and more chance of getting matched.

[Profit Seeker]

:hoho: :hoho: Haydn Jones with another at 50/1!! Bottom horse too Presto. :)

[wb]

often thought about this presto. hope you keep it up. will be interesting. good start!

[Vic]

Dont know if Barton Park @ 100/1 was at the bottom Presto, but Ornella Speed certainly was in the 3:00 (16/1 sp - no idea on Bettie)
Simple ideas are usually the best - hope you're putting a couple of shillings on these :)

[presto]

there was a couple of horses that were 1000 in the barton park race vic, barton park did peak at 900 though :yikes:

i got 22 on ornella speed.
(i actually pretend to place the bet - as to work out my odd's) - but as of yet not a penny placed on any selections.

just 3 more races today - but the 'paper' profit's are looking pretty good. :D

[wb]

Hi presto, what happens if there are say 2 or 3 1000 shots?

do you back all them?

[presto]

i only back the selection at the bottom of the list, sometimes it isn't the longest odd's.

[presto]

day 2

12:00 sthl 1 monte mayre boy 125 £1.00 1 £125.00
12:20 hex 1 scotmail too 400 £1.00 -£1.00
12:30 sthl 1 lady josh 200 £1.00 -£1.00
12:50 hex 1 cadogen square 400 £1.00 -£1.00
01:00 sthl 1 lucky lil 160 £1.00 -£1.00
01:10 win 1 pitton prince 1000 £1.00 -£1.00
01:20 hex 1 gospel song 250 £1.00 -£1.00
01:30 sthl 1 mungo jerry 50 £1.00 -£1.00
01:40 win 1 berengario 85 £1.00 -£1.00
01:50 hex 1 kidithou 50 £1.00 -£1.00
02:05 sthl 1 king eric 200 £1.00 -£1.00
02:15 win 1 turkama 130 £1.00 -£1.00
02:25 hex 1 john rich 100 £1.00 -£1.00
02:40 sthl 1 lake andre 30 £1.00 -£1.00
02:50 win 1 biliverden 13 £1.00 -£1.00
03:00 hex 1 ornella speed 22 £1.00 1 £22.00
03:15 sthl 1 movie king 100 £1.00 -£1.00
03:25 win 1 stanway 95 £1.00 -£1.00
03:35 hex 1 sticky end 700 £1.00 -£1.00
03:45 sthl 1 diamond shannon 60 £1.00 -£1.00
03:55 win 1 desert moonbeam 300 £1.00 -£1.00

[presto]

well i said yesturday i couldn't have asked for a better start. same goes for today :D

162 points profit after a day and a half. :hoho: but not a penny on them.
i could also go as far as saying if i started this a couple of hours earlier it would be more like 300+ point's profit.

but i do feal that these are freak results, and may have to run this system for way more than 1000 bet's - 1 year would be a much better assesment - though with my tendancy to get bored with systems (especially paper trading) i do hope i have the patience to continue 0 saturday will be a big test, not to mention the 200+ losing runs i expect.

[Profit Seeker]

200+ losing runs

:laugh JTS eat your heart out! :D

[wb]

Starting tomorrow:

prestos bets -

combined with finns staking plan!!

[Roberto]

if it says:

150
£10

you can place a bet of £10 @ odds of 150 - so you stand to win £1500.
Two points, the first of which I'm only mentioning because Keith thinks I'm ultra-pedantic and it's only polite to humour the boss, after all ... :)

If it says "£10", that means you won't get £11 matched immediately, but the amount matchable is anything between £10 and £10.99.

Secondly, these horses are probably more likely to drift than shorten overall at Betfair (I don't know this - I'm only guessing and might be wrong), and I would have thought that you might often do a little bit better by leaving something unmatched in-between the matchable prices showing for backing and laying. In my own experience (of outsiders, though not outsiders like these, I admit!), you get a very high proportion matched when you do that anyway. If you're "going round" looking at quite a few races, it doesn't cost anything to leave them all unmatched on your "first pass" and then see what's been taken when you "go round again". It doesn't take long, and you can get some pleasant surprises this way. Just a thought ...

[Roberto]

Starting tomorrow: prestos bets - combined with finns staking plan!!
Do me a favour, Wayne ... my blood pressure's high enough as it is ... :yikes:

:)

[davidsteel]

well done presto

[presto]

day 3

12:40 mkt 1 friedhelmo 100 £1.00 -£1.00
12:50 her 1 faddad 44 £1.00 -£1.00
01:10 mkt 1 iton 50 £1.00 -£1.00
01:20 her 1 our sion 250 £1.00 -£1.00
01:30 win 1 skye blue 300 £1.00 -£1.00
01:40 mkt 1 seraph 550 £1.00 -£1.00
01:50 her 1 alexander musical 36 £1.00 -£1.00
02:00 win 1 mollyiscar 350 £1.00 -£1.00
02:10 mkt 1 iloveturtle 1000 £1.00 -£1.00
02:20 her 1 anapuri 80 £1.00 -£1.00
02:30 win 1 wizzically lad 120 £1.00 -£1.00
02:40 mkt 1 fin bec 20 £1.00 -£1.00
02:50 her 1 leprechauns maite 800 £1.00 -£1.00
03:00 win 1 zaffamore 30 £1.00 -£1.00
03:10 mkt 1 fiery peace 15 £1.00 1 £15.00
03:10 mkt 1 jaybejay 10 £1.00 -£1.00
03:20 her 1 euro bleu 24 £1.00 -£1.00
03:30 win 1 loiseau 10 £1.00 -£1.00
03:40 mkt 1 howsham lad 1000 £1.00 -£1.00
03:50 her 1 aarons run 400 £1.00 -£1.00
04:00 win 1 surface to air 460 £1.00 -£1.00

[presto]

thank's david.

a bit of controversy with todays results.
to cut the rant short.

betfair have been moving selections up the list, much nearer to the off than i would have expected.
today this resulted in 2 horses that origionally were at the bottom of the list won, - though started the race 2nd from bottom.

the horses in question were:
3:10 fiery peace @ 15
3:30 roofing spirit.

to keep things fair i put 2 selections in for the 3:10 - as if this system was live i would have placed the bet on 'fiery peace' and probably on jaybejay.
i left out the 3:30 winner as even though i put the winner in my SS i most probably wouldn't have bet on the selection if the system was live.

[MattR]

Presto, for the test maybe you could set a cut off time to classify the horse as the 'bottom of the list' one?

[Jonny2621]

100-1 third in the last race mate, i had 780-1 on it :yikes: :D

[presto]

the way i was classifying it mat was - trying to keep it as late as possible near the off before i placed the bet, but i also did it as if i actually was placing a bet, and taking the odd's available. the problem was that the movement from the bottom of the list only happened around 10 mins prior to the off.

i think a couple may have placed jonny (not sure though) - i did see the 80/1 shot trade at odd's on :yikes:

[presto]

get in at the last :)

12:40 ext 1 red jester 560 £1.00 -£1.00
01:00 win 1 duncanbil 200 £1.00 -£1.00
01:10 ext 1 gordys joy 300 £1.00 -£1.00
01:30 win 1 stopwatch 50 £1.00 -£1.00
01:40 ext 1 euro two 1000 £1.00 -£1.00
02:05 win 1 hatch a plan 20 £1.00 -£1.00
02:15 ext 1 macmar 10 £1.00 -£1.00
02:40 win 1 strong magic 50 £1.00 -£1.00
02:50 ext 1 uncle ada 800 £1.00 -£1.00
03:10 win 1 sh boom 50 £1.00 -£1.00
03:25 ext 1 galant eye 40 £1.00 -£1.00
03:45 win 1 super lord 19 £1.00 1 £19.00

[vegyjones]

Who would have thought...

Vegy with a profitable system! :yikes: :yikes:

[presto]

stuff that - i have developed a new staking plan for this system (martingale inspired :) ).

this is guaranteed profit people, trust the pro :D

i have found that if you double the stake after each loser the profit is increased substantionally:

profit £9,823,884.00
adv odd's 238.5
staked £1,312,293.00
bet's 62
win's 5
losses 57
SR 8.06%
ROI 748.60%

£9.9 million profit in just 4 days - from a £1 starting stake

i did have to get a £512,000 bet on a 14/1 shot though, but i am sure the bookie will let me. :D

[MarcusMel]

Only trouble with the current staking is that the betfair miminum stake is 2 pounds and the % commission is not being taken into account.

Not that it would matter, but once again we have ground conditions etc mucking things up.

[presto]

the £2 min bet is quite easy to get around. (apart from bet's where the odd's are 1000).

i keep forgetting to add the commission to my spreadsheet, - but i think it's around £10 to be deducted at the moment.

.........................................................................

though tommorow i doupt i will have the time to record any selections, as i am sorting out the roof, which is quite a big job - 400sq ft of plywood and tar paper to take off / re-lay :(

[Profit Seeker]

Another one comes in. It maybe worth considering the bottom 2 or 3 or perhaps only when they swap places. Plus the same idea on the place market will have a better strike rate but profitability is questionnable, but then it is for this too. There's plenty of different filters to try but the time needs spending on it and I get the impression money man Presto that you're busy elsewhere with bet IE or otherwise :)

[carpetclean]

I think you had a 200pt winner today. It was at that price when I looked.

Any updates :)

[MarcusMel]

I spotted an Irish winner the other day at about 19's
and another 30's yesterday.

[mathare]

Topwell goes in at 66/1 SP. I missed the Betfair price at the off

[Profit Seeker]

Most money on at 150