Form & how to read it

[Racer]

Ok Im really *i*t at form and how to read it.

I have only ever used systems in the past and find form hard to go about.

Does anyone have any ideas as to help me back some winners using form?

Thanks!

:doh

[Win2Win]

Use your eyes :D

[wb]

Not really sure what you want explained here Racer.

Do you want to be able to read the cards in the Racing Post for example, i.e. all the numbers and abbreviations etc.

or do you want to know how to compile it to produce a winner?

Not sure what day (possibley saturday) but every so often the RP give an example card explaining how to read the form. As regards finding a winner out of it....................I'll leave that to someone else :yikes:

[Racer]

Hi Wayne,

I want to know how to combine it find winners...

[eastyorkshireracing]

Hi Racer,

One of the most difficult aspects of horse racing is reading the form. The factors that come into play are just too many to list. You can get a two horse race where the first has had six runs won them all over the course and distance and broken the course record en route, up against a maiden, the first horse goes off at odds of 1/20 and loses. How does this happen, on paper it can never happen, but in the real world it does.

My personal preference is to not even attempt to read the form of any race where the tissue price of the favourite is 6/4 or less. Handicaps are very difficult to get a good read of the form, but occasionally a horse stands out at a decent price (So for the experienced only). As for Banded racing, just forget it.

So that leaves us non-handicap races! Even then, some of these are hard to read, such as Sellers. One of my likes are Claiming races. Because these are races where the Trainer (or connections) decide what weight they want there charges to run off, by posting their claiming (or purchase value) on entry and the weight is allocated accordingly, the higher the value, the higher the weight. You can sometimes find horses in this type of race that have a decent Official Handicap Rating, but running off a low weight (but usually a bit out of form), but the connections want shut of it, so shove it in with a low claim to give it a better chance.

Two year olds early in the season often provide a decent return when running their second race within a week of their first run, as previous experience of a racecourse can often work wonders. Horses that are No.1 or No.2 in Nurserys also seem to have a better than average chance when having won either of there last two races.

As for reading the actual form one race against another, you have to have the patience of a saint, because it is tedious and after a couple of losers the shine soon wears off. So for the beginner, I would advise steering clear of betting on what you have read in the form and instead, reading the form AFTER the race has been run. That way you hope to see the reasons why a 25/1 shot has just won a race where the odds-on favourite should have romped home. The more you do this then trends that suit you best will begin to make themselves clear.

So having sat and typed out all this waffle you will get the general gist that you cannot be taught how to read the form, it is something that you aquire for yourself over years of study. You get a feel for a good thing. That is why some are good at it and the majority are rubbush Not mentioning any names :laugh

I hope that this has made sense and wish you luck in your quest for the perfect read…..

Gordon

[MarcusMel]

Take the second or third race on the race card. Work through each and every horse's race history, then make up reasons why it will lose or win. Go to paddy power radio and listen to the race comentary or if possible video the race so you can play it back a couple of times. Did the race run as you predicted? Go back to the form after the race has run and compare the way the race ran with the form. Note any reasons you come up with that you did not see before. Keep reasons as a list as you want to know their frequency of sucess if possible.

What mucks up form reading? Horse losing a shoe. Health of horse. Jockies ability to ride. (I once saw a great horse ridden so badly it just could not win). Horse with its own ideas of how to run a race.

[Win2Win]

..... and the majority are rubbush Not mentioning any names.....
So why is it we can read the word 'VEGY' in your mind then? :D

[eastyorkshireracing]

So why is it we can read the word 'VEGY' in your mind then? :D
Keith, really now, behave :doh

I take it you bought the same telepathy book from Amazon then :laugh

Only joking Vegy :laugh

Gordon

[Win2Win]

Sadly, gone are the days when we used to think that a Vegy tip was the end of a carrot :(

[Racer]

Superb post guys! Thank you so much, really I have at least some where to start and I really do appreicate this.

Again many thanks! :)

[Win2Win]

Stick to Novice races to begin with, and the first 3 in the betting.

[Onlyforfun]

Ignor eany race with the word "conditional", "amateur" or "ladies" followed by "jockey" or "rider" in the title. Anyone who tells you jockeys make no difference is a liar and these races prove it!

[Win2Win]

....or any sponsored by bookmakers....they don't put money in easy races.

[Racer]

....or any sponsored by bookmakers....they don't put money in easy races.

Aye, must say I have always thought of that as very true Keith.

:spinning

[Racer]

Ok, so going by the 12:35 @ Newbury tomorrow (Saturday) I have gone for "Natal".

Looking at the form, I believe it has run a race like this in the past (class C NvCh) 2nd to last time out, and ran a good race. It finished 5th last time out in a A listed race out of 16 and the trainer was pleased with that result. He is back again with Ruby Walsh onboard and looks to be able to follow up on his second to last time out, the only worry is the 8lb rise he now has to carry.

The 2 other horses (first three in the betting I have looked at) well there isnt much to go on this season with results, so I have discarded them, although AP rides Able Baker Charlie and I think that could be there abouts.

Do you think Im on the right track regarding this and considering this is my first form read race (in a way, cos I didnt read fully into the 3nd and 3rd fav) that I have done a fairly good job?

[Onlyforfun]

Unfortunately there are no shortcuts and when you start out you MUST look at the form of every horse in the race (pick races with not too many runners) and in depth at the market leaders.


Once you are mor eexperienced you can amend your acceptable price to take account of the no-hopers without having to discount them or study them too hard.

One good way to start out is to be systematic:

What horses have good form over the distance
What horses have good form on the going
.....

As this is a novice some will not have any form on either and you have to decide how much weight to give to no form. The obvious ranking is 1. Positive form, 2. no form 3. negative form.

I would read Natal as follows:

Bought out of France into a top yard at 3, which is too young to really know how a hurdler will turn out.

In first two Novices, won both. 1st up, beat Adjami by 10L witrh a minimum of fuss. Adjami went on to win nto in the same grade. Rest were poor and were well beaten. Next up, a more difficult race, a qualifier for the Jewson hurdle at the Festival where he was opposed by Portavadie, a useful sort who had won 3 on the bounce and Fandani, a German import who showed promise being only 5L behind Cerium who showed well in the Triumph last year and has won a few chases this year.

So far we see a good level of form emerging.

Then we come to his most recent race. A grade 2 at Cheltenham 2 weeks ago. In thi she was beaten 8L into 5th. But when you look at what beat him you see Boychuk, a highly progressive sort winning 4th race on the bounce, Buena Vista, winner of previous 4 races up to class B, Two Miles West, a Grioup clas sflat horse who won his debut hurdles race from another Pattern class flat horse and Crow Wood who would have been on a hattrick if he hadn't made a bad jump and slipped in his previous race.

Now we have to look at distance and going. All 3 recent races were run over todays trip give or take 1/2 furlong and earlier two were on GF and good. So it looks like no problem with trip and is versatile with regard to going so no problems there.

Class of todays race is C which is quite a drop from a G2 and being race fit (15 days since last run) a small penalty is no big anchor.

However, today he gives 3lbs to Fandani whom he beat getting 4lbs by 5.5L. However, he struggled to get on terms with the leaders that day and despite the "pull" in theory giving him a chance I don't think he will have the class as Natals subsequent form reads better.

Ther eare others to check out but you get the idea. With so many unknowns though it wouldn't pay to tak etoo much of a chance on price, but even if you allocate a 67% chance to the debutantes odds of 2/1 or better may look generous.

[eastyorkshireracing]

Ok, so going by the 12:35 @ Newbury tomorrow (Saturday) I have gone for "Natal".....
Hi Racer.....

I couldn't agree more with your choice of Natal. Got the best form in the race, but will go off favourite. I have had a quick read of the form and this is the order I would put the runners in.....

12.35 Newbury

1. Natal
2. Able Baker Charlie
3. Odiham
4. Celtic Jem
5. Some Touch
6. Magnesium
7. Tamreen
8. Street Life
9. Dance World
10. Fandani
11. Photographer
12. Amir Zaman
13. Gunship
14. Royal Stardust
15. Herakles

I have used various ways of coming to these conclusions, based purely on previous form reading and have nothing to do with my other selections posted on the forum, which are "system" based.....

I am not going to go into all the ins and outs of how I make my selections here, but I will at sometime start a post on the theories of form reading. But that could turn out to be a book more than a post :doh

Good Luck with your selection Racer and I hope that it is a winning one, so that you keep up the form reading.....

Gordon

[Racer]

My god, wow it would have taken me a week to find all that out :(

I think maybe I best stick with system's lol. I just want to kinda leave systems behind, not saying they don't work, but I thought of reading into form and seeing about those horses which generally can be spotted using form instead of a system, but hhmmm it looks very very hard.

Im prepared to spend about 20 mins a race I think looking at form (when I have the time) but is this enough and will you ever spot all the sign's you need. lol

Maybe small races (no more than 6)
Non Handicap Novice Races only
First 3 in the betting

How does that sound?

[eastyorkshireracing]

.............................Psst :mover

A word in your shell like! :rolleyes:

Each-Way fancy! :geek

Fandani @ 8/1

Hard to assess, could be the dark horse.....

Keep it to yourself :)

Gordon

[Onlyforfun]

My god, wow it would have taken me a week to find all that out :(


10 minutes on the RP website, gets easier with practise. If I could get Raceform to work on this PC I could really have blinded you with "science".

[Racer]

lol

Thats Guys! :)

[Win2Win]

Haven't you got RF working on it yet OFF? You need better than Windows 3.1 you know :laugh

[eastyorkshireracing]

.....You need better than Windows 3.1 you know :laugh
Nothing wrong with DOS 6.2, Word Perfect 5.1 (WP51) and a weird spreadsheet proggie called Supercalc Keith :laugh

Those were the days before all this GUI rubbish :laugh

Seemed to get more winners then too......

I think it is time I joined the Grumpy Old Men on TV.....

Gordon

[Onlyforfun]

I use abacus 1.0! :)

See you took our advice anyway Keith! :laugh

[Win2Win]

I use the Irish slide rule :laugh

[wb]

:yikes: ya cheeky git!

[eastyorkshireracing]

Great Stuff....

Natal WON 5/2

and my place horse:

Fandani 2nd 5/1

Well read Racer keep it up m8.....

Gordon

[Racer]

:) Well done to you to Gordon, nice 2nd there.

Hey, I was supprised by the price of Natal...5/2 seems good value I think. I would have thought it would have been odds on maybe 4/5

[wb]

good call racer and gordon :REGamblMo

[eastyorkshireracing]

.....Hey, I was supprised by the price of Natal...5/2 seems good value I think. I would have thought it would have been odds on maybe 4/5.....
Now you are getting the idea Racer. Finding what you believe to be the Value Bet in a race :)

Gordon

[Onlyforfun]

Was closer to 7/2 on BF. :D

[Racer]

Good price then yeah? :)