knockout system

[system1]

I,ve been thinking about a system must i have read about somewhere, that applies to sports like snooker darts tennis, sports that have knockout tornaments, and no draws. if you look at the odds for a player to win a knockout championship, say you get 50/1 on a player and you put a tenner on you would win 500 if he were to win, if you spread that money across the 5 rounds you could bet 100 pounds on the choosen players opponent until he loses. if you go for a large odds its very unlikely you,ll pick the winner. I have been thinking about it and cant really see any problems, there,s a risk that a player might withdraw from the tourament, but thats tiny. any views?

[TheOldhamWhisper]

If the guy is 50/1, the opponent is (normally) going to be an odds on shot to win the individual match.

Here's a scenario:

10 @ 50/1 = 500 profit (if player wins all 5 rounds)

First round opp 1/2 - 100 staked to win 50 (40 profit)
Second round opp 4/5 - 100 staked to win 80 (30 loss)

.... as you can see, the system immediately falls down.

A better way would be to risk the £10 and hope the player wins the first round. The odds will be shorter to win the tourney by then and you could lay the player to lock in a profit.

[vegyjones]

In snooker and tennis,
the pros are normally around 1/50 - 1/20 in the first rounds!

[system1]

sorry i meant to put a staggered staking plan in, starting small and working up.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

The main problem with the staggered staking is that often the odds are prohibitive and you need quite a large stake to cover the early round prices.

It might work if you spot a qualifier playing an 'out of form' player in the first round but even then it might break down.

I would recommend caution.

[system1]

all comments much appreiciated. I can see now that its a lot of risk . I still think its worth a punt, after looking at the 888 championship drawsheet, you can get 100/1 on jimmy white. he cant meet any of the top 8 favs until the q finals. I know there are holes in the theory, but i also think it will work most of the time if you can be happy with small wins in the first rounds. as its a knockout 3 quarters of the players will be gone after 2 rounds,