does instinct play a part in a working system?

[system1]

I have read several interesting threads in this forum about systems, I developed a system 18 months ago that worked fine on paper and as soon as i switched to real money it broke down. Like I said I have seen others say the same on the forum, My new system isnt ready for a real trial yet, and i,m a bit worried about the instinctive choices i make that might get me into trouble when the pressure of real cash comes into play. my selection system is almost automated, which i hope will keep results the same when i switch. I tend to use a star rating system for selection, most of it is automatic but I tend to consider dropping a star under certain conditions a huge field for example. My question is to people with experience with systems, go fully automated or lean towards instinct?

[Win2Win]

Automated, otherwise it is not a system.

[wb]

I would say go fully automated. It will take out the human element, and if the if it turns out to be profitable, well then, happy days.


but I tend to consider dropping a star under certain conditions a huge field for example

If I were you, I would decide what conditions you drop stars and stick to it. Otherwise you are mixing method with systems.

Would it not be possible for to run 2 paper banks, one with strict system rules, and one with your own tweaks, just to be sure that the fully automated system is more profitable?

[system1]

Thanks for the advice. I think its best that i try to set a few rules to fully automate it. For now I think i better carry on as i am, I realised recently that i have been giving in to the temptation to tinker around with the system too often. This has made it harder to moniter it. If I carry on with it as it is, I hope I will be able to see the weakest points and work on them one by one

[tophatter]

yep, for it it to be a true system it is best to pretend you dont even know anything about the horse you bet on and just do as you are told by the system. If the system tells you to back a 1000/1 shot you back it, it might lose 998 times out of 1000 but if if it won just the once you would have profit. Miss that one time due to thinking about it and talking yourself out of it and you lose 998 points. Ok that is an extreme example but that is how I look at it.

[silax]

what tends to happen you paper trade a system hit a very good run and think "get the cash on" system hits a normal downturn and you think its broke. your best giving time elements to when you put cash on for instance after 2 months if it looks viable start on the 1st day of that particular month at small stakes and build up as the bank rises

[tophatter]

yep that is a very good point and is another trap the punter falls into.

System gambling is mainly mathematics. What goes up also goes down, you just make sure that when you go down the descent is not as profound as the ascent. So if you paper trade something that is showing a big profit after three months you can bet there is going to be a sizeable loss waiting somewhere soon. That is normal - if it wasnt you would soon be able to be a very rich man as you could take much bigger risks as regards to stake. What can happen is you do one system, see it hit a bad patch and see another system that is in a good spell. You decide to give up on the system in the bad patch just as it is due to turn round and switch to the system on the good patch just as it is due to hit a sticky run. The only way round this is to paper trade at least three months and then use a small bank for the following three months. If you are still in points profit after those six months it should give you the confidence to ride out these mathematical cycles.

[Win2Win]

Sounds like you're talking about PS :doh

[tophatter]

Sounds like you're talking about PS :doh

:laugh

No comment!

[Win2Win]

Where is he today? Walking to the court to get there in time for tomorrow? :rolleyes: