Lay System

[WillsDonkey]

Hey all,

Recently been told about a laying system, the principal rule is laying the third favourite. Anyone heard of this system or used it? What were your opinions and long term profits....if any?

Thanks in advance.

[Street cry]

If it involves simply backing any third favourite then i presume as would any system backing a fav or 2nd fav it will show long term loss at exchange prices . I would presume it has factors such as doing it when the top 2 are very short odds ie 6/4 , 7/4 3rd fav 7/1 or something similar . If you can find all the rules it would give a better idea and someone might run it in rsb or similar for you .

[mathare]

I'm sure this has been done before and is a big loss maker.

However, I will say this. It's not a bad idea to start with something like this as a start to a system and a paper trade test. Unless you are willing to learn about systems and what makes them work/fail and run a good number of paper trades for experience I feel you are missing out a vital part of your learning if you have any plans to ever make a proper go of this game.

Think about things like:
- what you do in the case of joint 3rd favs.
- what you use as your source of odds data (betfair etc?) You can't use SP as this is unknown before the off
- is it better on the flat or NH?

[Street cry]

You couldn't ever be sure of the profitability with a system that relys on market influence . Even if your system was profitable to sp or even with an overlay of say 20% you would never know exactly which horse you would have layed lets say 10 min before the off or even earlier than this when the distorted early prices of the bookmakers are effecting the exchange market . You might find that 10-15% of the bets in your long term results would in fact have been no bets and other horses would have qualified as mathare says paper trading is essential for a long time before investment . You might want to consider using the 3rd favourite rule as a base to a solid method where you consider the top 2 on their merits and decide how strong they are in relation to said 3rd fav by doing this i would predict that you would probably find more profit as the value would be inherent in the fact you would be predetermining the strength of the situation rather than relying on set rules . There are cases when the top 2 take so much out the book that the 3rd fav is good value you need to find the times when it isn't . At the end of the day it is up to you , personally speaking i would much rather judge each case on its merits , lay systems can be good but as the margins are so tight you have to constantly be on top of things in my opinion . good luck SC

[Win2Win]

If it was that easy, I'd only spend 30 secs a day lisiting my horses instead of 12hrs :)