steamers and drifters 3 month analysis

[professorlay]

Hello hello, been analysising the old steamers and drifters for 4 weeks now with some encouraging but far from conclusive results. For those of you not familiar with the principles, backing drifters and laying steamers makes you as tidy profit (according to betfair) to the tune of:

drifters 2233 bets 231 points profit
steamers 3131 bets -349 points loss (if backing)

Believe it or not im showing very healthy profit for qualifying bets in certain odds ranges for backing and laying, curious to find out if anyone else has had any experience/success with said system. Will glady keep everyone well posted as to the outcome of the analysis.

[silax]

hi prof how do you determine whats a qualifier and whats not.
do you use a bot and set it up quite often a horse can drift then come back in

[professorlay]

silax me old fruit, according to betfair a qualifying bet is one that has moved by at least 5% of the market from 2 hours before the off. i.e 2 hours before the race commences the favourite is at 3.2 on betfair (1/3.2 = 31.25% chance of winning), at the off it has drifted to 4 (1/4 = 25% chance of winning) thusly has surrendered 6.25% of the market to other mules.

Not using a bot, just making a note of the price 2 hours before the off (as this is when the market is most accurate/settled according to betfair), then manually betting on horses. The stats from betfair about profitable drifters/steamers are between 2 hours prior to race and sp, so that the way im doing it. I have no doubt that while i was recording the odds i could request odds that would otherwise be unattainable as the market moved in my favour and then returned to were it started for the start. I'd imagine youd pick up more value bets this way but thats for later.

Interestingly enough at this point i have to conclude that not all drifters should be backed and steamers should be layed, for example steamers of betfair sp < 2.5 were 16/21 in march if BACKED, resulting in 11.4 points after 5% commision. Don't know if such anomolies will be ironed out with more testing!! but theres a few glaring sceanarios were the opposite rules apply.

Today was the first time that i followed win2win's tips as a member, very disappointing day, however, my drifters/steamers system went through the roof backing tora bora at 8, h harrison at 7.6 and walcot lad at 9.6 equalling a profit of 12 points after comm. My point is because the system opposes the market its results will be the opposite of what the form experts results, this will then negate bad days (it'll also negate good days of course) leaving you to enjoy much more consistent results, both win2win's tips and this system produce profit over time, so using them in conjunction with one another will just produce more, but because the profits were much less erratic could you bet more???

Any how ill keep you posted as to any further developments and of course ill let you know what happens when running both systems parrallel

Apologies for the spelling

[silax]

thanks for the reply prof not sure i understand it but good luck

[mathare]

Where did you get the Betfair info such as the market being most accurate 2 hours before the off and the definition of a steamer/drifter?

[Win2Win]

Not sure about the 2hrs myself. If the first race of the day in the Winter is midday, then their is bugger all money around till 11:30

[professorlay]

Heres the link

www.betfairpromo.com/tactemails/camb1a.htm

if you google "steamers drifters betfair" youll find other comments, don't know about the winter races, but im not sure there needs to be a lot of money on the markets to make them accurate. Its only in the last 10 minutes that most of the money is placed on the races and thats were 90% of these bets come from.

[Win2Win]

You can program Betangel to do that :)