New System - Help Needed please!

[andyp]

I have been working on a system now since 19/01/06 until the present day (-7/04/06). Now before i tell you about this, i know it is a risky staking plan but so far it has worked. I was wondering how long i should test it for before i go live with it?

Ok here goes (please no shouting at me :rolleyes: ):

I have put together a system, where 1 selection is chosen from each of the first 6 races at a meeting. So far the system would have profited me £4666 (i know this is "backdating" but u will just have to believe me please).

Now here is the 'controversial' part... I am using the dreaded martingale system (i think). On the first selection i will stake £5, on the 2nd £10, on the 3rd £20 and so on until i reach the 6th race where the stake would total £160!! At times the results have shown losses of £315 in one day, but the overall profit is +£4666.

The staking plan also involves the rule 'stop at a winner'. So if the selection wins the 1st race i will collect my winnings and leave it for the day, same with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.

I am very tempted to try this with real cash, but i have listened to everyones opinions previously with regards to these type of staking plans and systems and apparently they show losses in the long run, so how long should i continue this test for?

Any advice, good or bad would be appreciated.

[mathare]

How does this compare with other staking plans on the same selections?

Try the profits to level stakes and 1%, 2% and 3% of a set starting bank and see how it does. Try that with and without stopping at a winner. Try Martingale not stopping at a winner too.

Martingale was designed as a staking plan for bets where the odds were known in advance and the same for every bet. This is not true here. A winner on this plan could leave you out of pocket if the winner is odds on. Say the 1st loses so you are down a fiver and have a tenner on the next one. If that wins at 1/5 you win £2 and are still stuck £3 for the day. That said you could also have £160 on a 20/1 winner in the last race.

What's your biggest winner and what percentage of the total profit does that contribute?

What's your POI and standard deviation of profits/losses? It could be that this is nothing more than a statistical fluctuation if your standard deviation is high...

[andyp]

Hi Mat, thanks for the quick reply. i will look into the issue of using level stakes etc.

The system has produced 24 losing days all @ £315 per day! But i have had 2 winning days where it has produced 2 winners on race 6 (£160 stake) @ 8/1 which would have profited me £1125 on each occassion!!

So far it has never selected an odds on bet yet.

I will admit.... i dont understand what you wrote at the bottom of your message. Im not sure what a POI is? :doh Sorry.:)

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Oh Dear!

I cannot stress enough the potential pitfalls of ANY progressive staking system.

OK, it may be a bit extreme and I have no idea of your system selections but here's a small (summarised) extract from a book called 'Secrets of successful betting':

In 1962, there were 22 consecutive losing favourites and using a system to 'win £10', the 23rd (and winning) bet involved a stake of £23,394.41 at 4/1 to recoup a running deficit of £93,567.66 plus the magical £10 profit! Making a total risk of £116,962.07!

Using other examples from the book shows categorically that this type of plan inevitably fails through 'busted' banks or (if using a revert to original stake either after a winner or a set number of bets) consecutive winners followed by a sequence of losers will result in a heavy loss.

Whilst a good staking plan can help boost profits, if the system is not profitable at level stakes, it is likely to fail no matter what the plan applied.

[mathare]

So far it has never selected an odds on bet yet.But unless the rules mean it can never do so you have to bear it in mind.


I will admit.... i dont understand what you wrote at the bottom of your message. Im not sure what a POI is? :doh Sorry.:)Profit on Investment. Profit divided by total amount staked, expressed as a percentage. Excel will work out your standard deviation for you if asked, using the STDEV function.

What this tells you, basically, is whether the profits are as a result of luck (statistical fluctuations) or not. If not, then they must be as a result of your selection/staking method ie the system works.

To use it we have to assume the data fits a certain type of distribution called a normal distribution. For things like this that's not entirely true so I would take two measures: average profit and standard deviation on all profit losses plus daily average profit and standard deviation for daily profits.

I'll talk to you more about this tomorrow if you are interested...

[andyp]

Cheers Mat, yep i am interested! Playing football away tomorrow then off on the lash at night, but i am sure i will catch up with you soon. Thanks for your help and advice.

Thanks to you aswell TOW, sound advice.

[Win2Win]

You can only use £5 with that system if you have a MINIMUM betting bank of £50,000 otherwise IT WILL go bust at some point. I would actually recommend £500,000 with the rule 'you must be able to afford to lose it'

[Street cry]

I ran a system for a while which was more extreme than yours andy it involved me making a set amount for every bet i had . I chose the best bets of the day maximum 5 and then decided what i wanted to make a day this was £100 i then calculated the average ie 100/5 =20 if the first horse was evens i would put 20 on it and if it won i would stake the next horse to win 20, if it lost i would be staking the second to win me 20 for that bet 20 for the first bet and the lost stake so basically you are clearing your arrears constantly . So the 2nd bet at evens would have been 60 pounds . I started this with a bank of 700 (which is far too small) i went to £4000 ish with no problems but hit a bad run and bottled it i walked 2 grand up but the pitfalls are obvious .

[bigcumba]

You can only use £5 with that system if you have a MINIMUM betting bank of £50,000 otherwise IT WILL go bust at some point. I would actually recommend £500,000 with the rule 'you must be able to afford to lose it'

I can vouch for that from bitter and very costly experience....

[mathare]

Cheers Mat, yep i am interested! Playing football away tomorrow then off on the lash at night, but i am sure i will catch up with you soon. Thanks for your help and advice.

Thanks to you aswell TOW, sound advice.Yeah, might not get time meself to explain it in more detail but hopefully this weekend I will put up a few posts on the maths behind gambling. If not, it'll be Monday when my boss is on holiday :D