laying 2yr old favs

[johnthegun]

I have just done a spot check on 2yr old favs 3 runs or less since the start of season (inc irish) Here is a list of prices and results (SP)

10/11 4th
15/8 2nd
6/4 2nd
10/3 4th
8/11 1st
3/1 1st
11/10 1st
30/100 2nd
9/4 5th
3/1 3rd
4/6 1st
10/11 2nd
5/2 3rd
9/4 2nd
4/1J 3rd
4/1J 4th
11/10 2nd
6/4 4th

List of 18(might have missed 1) 4 winning favs. Level stakes profit to 8.9 to the £ (if my maths is right:doh ) Might be worth a little interest...

[Fadetoblack]

Defintely. I've found this out in a rather perverse way...in that I've been backing some of them. It's a system I tried that seems to have ultimately failed due the extreme greeness of some 2 year olds this season.

Exhibit A: Everyman. Looks like a fast horse but like to spend a bit too much time in the stalls. Finishes fast though and makes you wanna back him next time....where he stays in the stalls again. He's running again tomorrow. He's better than the fav and will be a nice price, but he'll need to be kicked out of the stalls by a race tech guy...

[johnthegun]

Greeness seems to be the key. The fav might be easily the best horse in the race but i have seen enough "drunken swaggers":wiggle: towards the line to make it pay. Bumper horses seem to drink from the same cup :)

[silax]

hi john what you need is some nice chap with rsb to run it through and give you the results over a few years. you don't really have enough data to say either way

[Street cry]

I'd be careful with nurseries though

[johnthegun]

maidens only. 2 out of the 3 favs won today. i'm going to drop it down to 2 runs or less.

[johnthegun]

i did another spot check on this
( mid march to mid april 05) 33 qualifers 11 winners lay profit £40 @ £10 level stakes
(3 weeks in july) 70 qualifers 30 winners including 5\1and 9\2 again lay profit £40 @10 level stakes



Revised conditions
2yr old maiden
lay fav under 4\1 that has run no more than 2 races