Is this suicidal?

[clotty]

I was thinking of a strategy for laying. It's probably not original, but it basically involves planning to win a set amount on each race. Say, for example, I have £10,000 to play with and decide to put it on this system. Being ridiculously over cautious, I decide I want to win £10 each race to minimize my chance of bankruptcy, I simply lay the favourite in each race.

If in the first race, the favourite loses, great! I make £10 and lay £10 on the next favourite in the next race.

If in the second race, however, the favourite wins I pay my liability. (For arguments sake I'll say the average price of a favourite will be 2/1, although I expect it's lower in realisty). I lose my £20, but don't worry, coz there are plenty more races left in the day... next race, I lay for £40 (£20 to cover the loss of last race, £10 to cover the profit I missed out on in last race and £10 for the profit I want in this race)...

Again, this is an estimate, but say there are 30 races in a day and you win on your last race, you've made a profit of £300! If you don't win on your last race, you've probably still made a profit and you just carry on to the next day until you hit the winning lay and start back at £10.

£300 a day would equal around £9000 a month, meaning after two months, you'd have doubled your bank AND MORE. Changing the stake you aim to win in each race might also be an idea.

However, the questions are ... is this suicidal?

Will losing streaks happen too frequently for it to be profitable?

(Didn't double check, but I think that's right, anyway)

As you can see, you'd need disastrous luck to lose your bank and, don't forget, as the months progress you have more and more funds to cover yourself with, should the worst happen.

However, would there be enough interest to lay a horse at £1590 and get it all backed?

Can anyone see any other flaws?

This requires no skill on picking horses, but a variation could be combining it with a proven laying process, although you wouldn;t make nearly as much.

Clotty.

[clotty]

Just to take this point further, with this strategy, the Golden Lays system would be up £1360, I make it (although I might be slightly wrong). This is more than double what it's at now, plus, along the way there would have been almost no scary situations risking hugh chinks of the bank.

[Win2Win]

It may be more than double up, but it is way more than double the risk, so I wouldn't touch it. Easier to just double the bank for the same risk.

[MarcusMel]

There have been days where the favorite of each race have won. The question is what loosing length are you prepared to support. Favorites have a 30% SR. You could have a fairly long run of success but there is always that odd day that you can't afford.

[presto]

not getting too involved - but rather than £10 a race - why not aim for £2. especially as this system is unproven. as it would be much safer.

also paper testing for a month would be a good idea.

[tophatter]

if I had a 10 grand bank I would not be worried about trying to win a minimum amount per race. at 0.1% risk per point you are lookin at £100 and you would only need to make 20 points profit in a year to make 2 grand. The advantage of a big bank is you dont have to take risks to make money.

[Roberto]

Your figures are all wrong, Clotty.

If you lose the first race, then in the second race, as you say, you have to lay for £40. £20 to cover your loss, and £10 for your lost profit from race 1 and another £10 for your target profit from race 2. If the odds are 2/1, that means your own stake (liability) for the second race is £80, not £40. That's what you have to have in your Betfair account to put the lay on, and that's what you'll lose if the favourite wins.

If the second favourite wins, you'll be £100 down, and need to recover that plus three lots of £10 profit, so you need to win £130, and if the odds are again 2/1, that means your risk is £260 not £80 as you've worked it out.

According to your figures, after 7 losses you'd be down only £1,590. I'm afraid you would actually be down £32,720. :yikes:

You'd also be staking £21,860 the seventh time, in order to win £10. But that's very typical of "loss recovery staking".

[presto]

just a quick SS i did for this.
it is designed to win £10 per run. not per race.
also it dosn't include commish - which would be vital.
the losses / liability add up extremely quickly.

[presto]

even with £2 aim per race (£10,000 bank) an eight winner run would wipe the bank out - highly improbably - but possible.

........................

note the SS - i t was just a basic 5 minuit one, so don't take it as fact.

[presto]

some more info:
fate of favs (flat) 1991-2005

Sequences of Consecutive Winners (favs)

1 Winner 8298
2 Winners 2712
3 Winners 865
4 Winners 288
5 Winners 107
6 Winners 29
7 Winners 15
8 Winners 2

....................................................................

fate of favs (NH) 1991-2005

Sequences of Consecutive Winners (favs)

1 Winner 6044
2 Winners 2311
3 Winners 837
4 Winners 327
5 Winners 124
6 Winners 51
7 Winners 21
8 Winners 7
9 Winners 2
10 Winners 0
11 Winners 1

[Street cry]

i am doing a similar thing clotty with win bets 10,000 bank £10 per race bank has been close to busting once and a realistic bank for such amounts would actually be 100,000.

[clotty]

Your figures are all wrong, Clotty.

If you lose the first race, then in the second race, as you say, you have to lay for £40. £20 to cover your loss, and £10 for your lost profit from race 1 and another £10 for your target profit from race 2. If the odds are 2/1, that means your own stake (liability) for the second race is £80, not £40. That's what you have to have in your Betfair account to put the lay on, and that's what you'll lose if the favourite wins.

If the second favourite wins, you'll be £100 down, and need to recover that plus three lots of £10 profit, so you need to win £130, and if the odds are again 2/1, that means your risk is £260 not £80 as you've worked it out.

According to your figures, after 7 losses you'd be down only £1,590. I'm afraid you would actually be down £32,720. :yikes:

You'd also be staking £21,860 the seventh time, in order to win £10. But that's very typical of "loss recovery staking".

Yeh, you're 100% right, I was using odds of 1/1, when calculating ...

It does show the system's not nearly as worthwhile as I thought, besides I doubt a lay for £2000 would get matched on betfair, although I don't have much experience with laying high sums of money on the exchanges...

After looking at the spreadsheet and Presto's stats, I've come to the conclusion this is suicidal and certainly won't be trying it. Cheers for all feedback.

[Win2Win]

You're welcome. Although we hate shooting down people's ideas in flames, but we only try to save people money.

[buddhabee]

I doubt a lay for £2000 would get matched on betfair.

Why not? The way I see Betfair working is that any number of punters will back the horse, so it's not a case of only one person coming along and placing a £2000 bet. You could get 200 punters bet £10 each to match your £2000. Especially for a favourite.

[clotty]

I'm probably wrong, I don't use the exchanges for horse racing very often, but from what I have seen, most horses have around £50 on them for a rough average. Granted, in high profile races these figures might look different, but aswell as having enough punters with enough money to back the £2000 lay, two grand, in comparison with all the other lays would look severely out of place and people would probably be put off backing someone willing to lay £2k on a race. This was more the point I was trying to make...

Clotty.

[mathare]

The average UK race gets about half a million quid matched on it Clotty. If you're laying favs as you suggest £2k is nothing and will get matched. You might have to span a couple of odds ticks to get it all on but you will get it all matched no stress.

[Win2Win]

I got £2000 matched yesterday on a 2nd fav in about a second. (trading not a bet)

[Roberto]

most horses have around £50 on them for a rough average.
Maybe, but don't forget that these days they also have secret pockets under the saddle with special equestrian credit-cards hidden inside, so they don't need to carry too much cash.

[Win2Win]

:doh :D

[buddhabee]

I got £2000 matched yesterday on a 2nd fav in about a second. (trading not a bet)

Did it lose?

[ray7]

Did it lose?

Doesn`t matter when trading win or lose you win (most of the time :doh )

[Win2Win]

Doesn`t matter when trading win or lose you win (most of the time :doh )
Certainly, as long as the trade is the right way, I couldn't care if it won or lost :)

I only usually trade with £500, but if a horse is in free fall, may as well mop up a bit more :)

[wb]

I only usually trade with £500, but if a horse is in free fall, may as well mop up a bit more :)

Keith, Is there any reason not to use your full bank while trading? (A seperate trading bank of course)

If you have sufficient get out points, (mine is after 2 rises in the price) , would there be any reason not to use the lot?

[presto]

would there be any reason not to use the lot?

betfair crash, connection / computer problems etc....

i know it is highly unlikely but it does happen,

[Win2Win]

I'd never use a full bank for any betting, the bank is there to ensure you always have money to use on what it was set up for. Trading does contain risk. Get a few bad calls, and for a start money is tied up, the bank is reduced, less to play with on the next race.

As with all betting, you need to build up the bank, rush it, and it will probably end in disaster.