Mavrick Returns

[Mavrick]

Hello there

Well it has been over two years since I have posted anything here. Completely due to laziness on my part which I plan to amend. For those that may remember, I use to advice tennis selections. The majority of my time is now spent analysing and betting on Staying handicap chases. I now live in the Czech Republic with my Girlfriend and am attempting to bet for a living. The reason why I'm seeking refuge on this forum is a pretty sad one as I no longer have anyone to talk to about betting and horse racing and I hope to bounce some ideas and opinions about the type of horses I bet on around.
Please feel free to comment on anything I post in the future.

I spent about 10 hours looking at the 1600 at Uttoxeter yesterday and another couple today but have resigned myself to fact I can't find a bet. I will post my analysis of it here so you can get a feel for the way my brain tends to work when looking at a race. I apologise for the fact that the race will be off quite soon.

1600 Uttoxeter 0-125 handicap 2m4f, Top weight rated 113, tight left hand track that favours late runners. Apparently GD GD/SF in places.

Quazar- Appears completely out of sorts and would rather not be at a race track. On his old form he could run rings around this lot. NO BET

Flight Command- The last 6 speed ratings I awarded this horse were. 56,55,62,65,60,53. The 56 and 55 were both on good/firm and he certainly wants a bit of cut so he should go much better on todays ground. Has had over a month of so should be proberly the fittest out of the bunch, however hasn't won for 21 months which is always a bad sign. GOOD CHANCE OF A PLACE

Xellance- He ran his best race over 23 furlongs and I just don't think this horse is fast enough over 20 furlongs. NO BET

Pams Oak- At a glance there doesn't seem to be much wrong with this horse, however, he has only won in very modest company, his best Speed ratings are 62//11th-08 and 61//24th-5 and this will be his 4th race in 49 days and his last one was only 10 days ago and it was a hard one which will take time to recover from. I think this is a very good favourite to oppose.

Saafend Rocket- Has never won over 2 miles. NO BET

Incas- Very interesting. I can see this horse being quite special in the future judge on the speed rating he earnt last time out. But this will be his 6th run in two months which is far too many. NO BET BUT ONE TO WATCH FOR THE FUTURE.

Mill Bank- Another horse which looks quite good for the future judged on his run on the 19/07/06. He doesn't get 3 miles so this drop back in trip is right up his street. However he is another one that looks like he needs a rest as his best runs have all been after a 5 week break. NO BET BUT COULD GO REALLY CLOSE

Flahives First- This horse should not be opposed over 2 miles. Only a week since he ran and todays trip doesn't look likely to suit. NO BET

SUMMARY
As you can proberly tell, I like looking at Speed ratings and performance patterns but I also take quite a lot of either things into account but it's already 1550 and I obviously want to post this before the race goes off so I haven't gone into great detail.
I wouldn't advise a bet, but, if my arm was twisted I would go for Mill Bank, with Flight Command coming second. Incas along with Flahives first are also horses to look out for in the future when they have conditions to suit.

I hope I haven't bored everyone and please feel free to ask questions or make whatever comments you like.

Matt

[Fadetoblack]

Very interesting read Matt, will look forward to reading your posts, and corrupting your mind, in the future.

[Merlin]

Nice analysis.............on the ball too...well done Mav....

[John]

Nice to see you return Mav! Looks like you're pretty good at race analysing too. :wink You still betting on the Tennis these days? I saw Agassi's last match on Sunday, was a real shame he had to go out losing like that in his last one, I don't blame the guy for crying his eyes out.

John (Stereojohnics)

[vegyjones]

John (Stereojohnics)
:yikes: I always wondered what happened to Stereo!!!! :yikes:

[John]

He got upgraded to John..... with Surround Sound. :laugh

[vegyjones]

He got upgraded to John..... with Surround Sound. :laugh
Your a modern man... size doesn't matter! :smileybigtmouth:

[Mavrick]

Hi guys, thanks for the nice words. Feel free to bounce some ideas of me.

Hi John. "StereoJohnics" is a name that I remember. No I haven't bet on tennis for over a year now as I found it to hard to make any real profit, even if I spent hours watching past matches. I can't get SKY over here so I haven't even seen a match since November. Agassi was a great player and will be missed and I don't blame him either for crying.

I will post an analysis of the 3 mile chase at Bangor on friday hopefully by tomorrow night for anyone that wants to read it.

Matt

[John]

Agree with you on that front, the Tennis can be tricky to make a profit on, usually because every match has ridiculously short odds and you usually know who's going to win. Andy Murray is looking sharp as ever too (he beat Roger Federer a couple of weeks ago on hard court) so that's a plus point for Britain. It's a shame you can't get SKY over there as you're missing a lot of the major coverage I expect. I'm currently in the middle of reading John McEnroe's autobiography.

[Mavrick]

Yeah, I don't think it will be long before Murray picks up a grand slam. I remember seeing him play shortly after he won the US open juniors and I thought he would turn out to be world class. It's just a shame that his on court demeanour is so poor. I bet that books an interesting read.

Here is my analysis of the 1450 at Bangor on Friday. Just skip to the bottom if you want to see my advised bet.

1450 Bangor 3m1/2f 0-105 Going:Good Tight left hand course

Incas 12-0 OR 96 (+7lb penalty)- Is I expect the best part of 20lbs well in here, but, with just two days to recover from his last run I think he is completely opposable. I can see him winning a 0-135 at least in the future and I thought that he would of been forecasted much shorter than 11/4. NO BET

Francines Boy 11-12 OR 101 – If the pace is a strong one then the race could be set up for him. My speed ratings for his last two British runs are 61 and 60. He has had a 5 week lay off and the trip and ground should be ideal. GREAT CHANCE

Tregastel 11-1 OR 99(+7lb penalty)- Running under a penalty for his Cartmel win which I gave him a SR of 61 for, this 11 year old is consistent when he has his conditions, but I feel he wants a greater test of stamina and the dreaded bounce theory may also come into play NO BET

Runaway Bishop 11-10 OR 99- Is a mud lark and would need some serious rain to stand a chance. NO BET

Wee Willem 11-9 OR 98- Has some nice form figures next to his name and the lay off a positive, but I just don’t think this 6 year old is mature enough to win this. I wouldn’t say the ground is against him as his last two runs that were stated as being run on Good/Firm look time wise as if they were really run on Good ground. NO BET

Cociembe 11-6 OR 95- Is a bit of an unknown quantity for the Pipe yard. Looked certain to be 2nd last time out behind the much improved Waynesworld before Slipping Up. The time of that race wasn’t anything special and he was well held by the winner. It may have been the marathon distance that brought out the best in Him. NO BET

Christophe 11-6 OR 93- Found about as easy an opportunity to win a 0-120 handicap as possible at Worcester 2 runs ago. Put in his place 9 days later. Maybe the trip was a bit far for him or the run coming too soon, but this is one slow individual who will be lucky to make the top 4. NO BET

La Bandido 11-3 OR 92- Is an interesting prospect for the future. Speed ratings of 58, 56, 66 put him in with a great chance. I think this trip is a bit on the far side for him and the ground too soft, but a big run should not be a surprise. A decent purse in the future will be well within his grasp.

Bernini 11-1OR 90- Has no chance

Hehaslife 10-9 OR 84 – The positive effects that blinkers can bring have worn off, which is very common. NO BET

The Masareti Kid 10-1 OR 76- The same can be said for this horse. He put in a couple of very good runs in June when blinkers were first applied, but has now decided enough is enough. Tried in cheek pieces for this race. If they do work, which is unlikely if blinkers have begun to fail it will take a race or two for him to get use to them. NO BET

Channarlie- 10-0 OR 74 Has lost his speed with age. I can’t see him figuring in a million years. I don’t know what the racing post are talking about. NO BET

Jupiter Joe- 10-0 OR 73- NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER.

River Mere 10-0 OR 64- Another oldie who has lost his speed. NO BET


Summary

Maybe a chance is being taken that Incas has had too many recent runs, but I just can’t see how he could of recovered in time. I know horses who are much classier then their opponents can break all the rules, but I can’t see it happening here. Famous last words. So for me Francines Boy is the best bet in the race. He has conditions to suit and if Incas takes up the running it should work out nicely for him. The Racingpost have forcasted him at 13-2 and I was expecting 7/1 at least, but looking at the early market on Betfair, 140am,it seems that might be wishful thinking. I put him in as about a 5/1 shot. Lets hope that plenty of people come in for Incas.

If you can get 7/1 I recommend 1pt win Francines Boy (or 5% of your betting bank)
If you can only 6/1 then I recommend ½ pt win (or 2.8% of your betting bank)

For anyone that cares I use the Kelly Criterion chart for my staking which is by far the best way.

Matt

[wolves pete]

What's the Kelly Criterion Mavrick?

[Mavrick]

Hi Pete. I’ve just been googling to see if I can find a website with the chart on to make it easier for you to see what it is, but so far no success so I will post the calculations for it (which are very easy) and a brief explanation on what it’s about.

Basically the Kelly Criterion is a very complex mathematical equation for stating the obvious: The bigger the advantage you have over the bookies. The more you should bet. A basic example. If you think a horse Is really a 2/1 shot, but you can get 3/1, then you should have a bigger bet on it then if you can only get 5/2. But the equation gives you a precise amount of your current betting bank too bet. The problem is you have to be pretty accurate with your odds line (what you think the true price of your selection is), but when you start using it, if you just make your odds line a little bigger then you actually think it should be then you will be fine. For example if you think your horse is actually a 2/1 shot, then for arguments sake add ½ pt, so when you use the chart it’s a 5/2 shot. This will stop you betting a very large amount of your current BB and it will also ensure you have a profit margin built in.

The Calculation-

1) Work out the chance, in percentage terms, that you think the horse has of winning. ( for example if you think your horse is a 3/1 shot, then it has a 25% chance of winning.)
2) Multiply this by the horses actual odds ( for example you might be able to get 4/1 on the exchanges/bookies) (25*4)=100
3) Subtract the probability, again in percentage terms, you believe the horse has of losing(If it has a 25% chance of winning, then it has a 75% chance of losing) So 100-75=25
4) Divide the result of the above by the horse’s actual odds. (the horse is 4/1, so 25/4=6.25) The answer is the percentage of your current betting bank that you should bet. So if you think a horse is 3/1 and you can get 4/1, the you should bet 6.25%

Someone commented on my betting diary thread that some of the amounts it wants you to bet can be very high. For example-
If you put a horse in at 1-2 and you can get 4/5 from your friendly bookie, then the chart will want you to stake 25% of your betting bank. Now 25% is a massive part of your BB. In theory though, if you have your odds line correct, then 25% is the right amount to bet mathematically, but I don’t think anyone in their right mind would bet that amount, so it’s up to you how you apply the chart. Luckily I don’t tend to get involved in races where I might come across a horse which I think should be so short (normally 3/1 is about the shortest I come across and the chart has only very high percentages when you are dealing with very short price horses) and so I would never be ask to bet an amount like 25%.
What I do is bet the full amount up to 4%, and then bet half Kelly on any difference over that. So if it wants be to bet 6%, then I bet 5%. 10% would be7%. Some people will still think these amounts are too high so you will need to find your own limit which keeps you happy. Maybe a ½ Kelly, or even a ¼ Kelly.

It’s far less daunting when you can see the chart. I will keep on looking.



Anything you don’t understand just ask.

[vegyjones]

You lost me at "Hi"... :ooo

[Mavrick]

LOL

I'm not the best at explaining things.:ermmm

I can't find a copy of the chart anywhere so I will Scan it onto my computer from one of my books and attach it here. I will have to wait for my girlfriend to get home from work as the scanners hers and it's all in Czech so I don't know how to work it:doh

[Mavrick]

Here's the chart. You will need MS Word to open it.

The column on the left that says " odds " are the odds that you think the horse should be. The column at the bottom that says " bookmaker odds ", are the actually odds which are available from the bookmaker/on the exchanges. Just match the two lines up and that will be the percentage of your current betting bank that you should bet. Obviously you can't use it if you bet to SP.

Mav

[Merlin]

The Theory is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

As with all things racing – there are drawbacks…….a few important points:

1) You need to be able to formulate your own betting tissue – accurately…
2) It all about taking value on the selection – and betting accordingly…..so you must have some feel for the ¨value concept¨
3) It’s a long term thing – as always.
4) You need to pick winners – as always.


The crux is this – you bet on horses that are overlayed……..if your correct – you will win long term……if your wrong – you lose….

[johnthegun]

" I can't get SKY over here"
Maverick if it is possible to get 1.2m dish up where you live then you should be able to pick up SKY. Sky can be picked up as far as Turkey, I know as I sent a few sat boxes over there.

P.S. Nice summery of the Uttox race(only seen the post now) - staying chases is also my favorite puzzle to solve :)

[vegyjones]

1.2m
For 1.2 million dishes, you should be able to pick up [insert Mars orbiting probe here] :D

[Mavrick]

Thanks John. I looked into getting SKY when I first moved over here and they said that the footprint did extend this far East, but that I would need a 2m dish to get all the channels. The problem was that SKY require you to have a UK address as they don’t really allow you to have it abroad. I know people do, but I was a bit worried in case anything went wrong, as they send the signal down the phone line to sort things out. I’m sure you know more about it then me. It is not so bad, as I no longer spend about 10 hours a week watching the Simpsons, and I can get all the racing over the net. I do miss the sports though.
That’s great that there’s another person into chases. I think everyone else is far more into the flats at the moment. I’m currently looking at the 405 at Perth on Wednesday and have just finished assigning speed ratings to all 20 off the horses declared at the 5 day stage and if VaVavoom runs, then I don’t know how he can’t win. I know it’s a bit early and I will spend a good deal of time looking at the race tomorrow. He probably won’t even be there after the final declarations and if he is then sods law the RP will Nap him. I don’t know whether you’ve seen it, but I put all my write ups in the Diary section. Hope to bounce some ideas off you in the future.

Mav

[wolves pete]

Cheers Mavrick.

Unfortunately I am absolutely useless at forming my own prices so it would be 99% suicide for me.Thanks anyway mate

[Mavrick]

Yeah it probably wouldn't be the best thing to use then.

[johnthegun]

Maverick, getting Sky without the phone is can be done. I'm an authorised Sky sales agent. I could get you the Irish version (which has everything bar Channel 4) at a push but you would be better off getting a copy of "What Satellite" and get one of the agents there to sort it for you.

[Mavrick]

Thanks alot. I've just been looking on expats.cz and there is a company on there that will manage the SKY card for a small charge. I presume that means that they will get the subscription and that I will just pay them.
I just need permission of the :whip now. Yeah right. :hahaha