Is it worth continuing with this?

[HiArt99]

Hi Folks,

I have been paper trading a new lay system for the since 11 August with results for 57 days, and have recorded 661 bets. Bets are to a £2 lay, using SP from SportingLife.

I have 492 losers (i.e. winning bet), 169 winners, so a strike rate of 74.4%.

Longest daily losing streak (loss made on the day) - 3 days for -£27.00, longest daily winning streak - 6 days for £53.37.

Biggest profit in a day £22.80, biggest loss £24.16.

Now... the important stat :)
Profit made: £100.92, which is only £1.77 per day, or put another way, 100% return in under 3 months.

What do you think? Keep paper trading, dump the system, or publish here?

Art.

[Street cry]

profit is not bad if u compound it sensibly could work out very well

[danbo1000]

The only problem there I can see mate is that you are using sporting life SP's to paper trade with. Even if you was to add 20% extra to each SP it would not be a accurate recording of the losses you make when a horse wins with betfair prices.

Your profit could be a lot less than you are currently expecting.

[Workshy]

If you have the time, paper trade it some more using exchange prices, acquiring these prices at a consistent time each day. There is a link of historical betfair prices should you want to back date.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

100% in 3 months?

If you are thinking of dumping that, you have to ask yourself if you are in this for the long term or just looking for a quick buck. If that level is maintained and a good staking plan applied, you could generate a decent income in a few years time.

[presto]

the problem is that you are using SP, which like danbo said - dosn't give an accurate reflection of the laying price (betfair).

if you, like workshy said - go through the 169 winners and input the betfair price into your spreadsheet as opposed to SP you would get a much better idea of the true profit / loss.

[wb]

The return looks great, but as already stated, you will need to consider that you will have to offer better prices on betfair than SP. If it is still showing a good profit, match it up with the right staking plan, and hopefully you will be on to something. If you can't access betfair during the day to make a note of the price, you can check the historical data here:

http://data.betfair.com/

(you will need at least 100 betfair points to use the service though)

[HiArt99]

OK - thanks, I've downloaded the Betfair data and will take a look at whether this system is still in profit. I'll also go back through the data and apply a staking plan. I'll post the results here, but it will be a week or two :(

[HiArt99]

Folks,

looking at the betfair data there are a plethora of prices for each selection at each event. Any advice on which price is the best to select? Highest pre-event, 5 minutes before scheduled off, another?

Ta

Art

[wb]

Folks,

looking at the betfair data there are a plethora of prices for each selection at each event. Any advice on which price is the best to select? Highest pre-event, 5 minutes before scheduled off, another?

Ta

Art

It depends what time you will be placing the bet in real life. If you need to place all your bets together, then you will need to check the earlier prices, but if you will be betting before each race, I'd say 5 mins before the off would be a good guide.

[wb]

Actually, I'd say the best idea would be to use the spreadsheet to add the various prices together, and then get the average matched price.

Another idea would be to take the price that the most money was matched on.

[Win2Win]

Buy Odds Extractor, you can have as much data as you like then :)

[HiArt99]

OK, applied the Betfair Data now, and wow, what a difference!

Starting bank was £100.
Stake plan is 2% up to £200, then 1% of bank, calculated daily.
I currently have 67 days worth of data.
Odds taken at 7am as, due to work, this is when I tend to place my bets.

In the following table, the "Odds Limit" means no bet if odss >= limit




Odds Limit Selections Win Loss SR% P/L
99 904 212 692 23.45% -£ 39.41
15 825 207 618 25.09% £ 30.64
14 813 206 607 25.34% £ 7.02
13 801 206 595 25.72% -£ 12.49
12 786 206 580 26.21% -£ 37.72
11 769 206 563 26.79% -£ 68.77
10 755 204 551 27.02% -£ 57.46
9 710 199 511 28.03% -£ 42.63
8 660 194 466 29.39% -£ 55.99
7 613 187 426 30.51% -£ 40.99
6 541 171 370 31.61% £ 13.11
5 443 155 288 34.99% -£ 4.24
So an Odds Limit of 15 looks worthy of futher examination.

Just for fun, I used the same data for BACK, with no bet if odds < limit.



Odds Limit Selections Win Loss SR% P/L
1 906 212 694 23.40% -£ 84.74
2 835 171 664 20.48% -£ 77.24
3 699 120 579 17.17% -£ 50.99
4 570 84 486 14.74% -£ 43.74
5 460 57 403 12.39% -£ 49.79
6 354 38 316 10.73% -£ 37.51
7 287 24 263 8.36% -£ 77.45
8 237 17 220 7.17% -£ 79.48
9 188 13 175 6.91% -£ 44.15
10 150 8 142 5.33% -£ 60.46
11 133 6 127 4.51% -£ 66.85
12 118 6 112 5.08% -£ 37.05
Wipeout!

I'll run this on paper for a little while longer.