W2W software - odds-on

[presto]

a big result today with 'chaim' winning - at a very un-odds-on price :doh

:D - gives the bank a big boost.

[Win2Win]

It's F/c price was odd on......I missed it getting back from the garage. ;fire

[presto]

quite a bit available @ over 4 on betfair.
got 3.55

[sparkyminer]

......I missed it getting back from the garage. ;fire

Don't they keep it in a stable?:D

[Win2Win]

Don't they keep it in a stable?:D

Haven't you got a hole to dig? :rolleyes:

[sparkyminer]

Digging the hole boss!:spinning

[alianzalima]

i thought that was all part of the plan. have a few losers first so the bet got a bit scary and then a nice price winner to boost the bank

[Win2Win]

It's also desgined to make a profit at levels as well though, the software just help add a bit of controlled boost.....with an added...'Crap yer self' factor :D

[presto]

another biggie comming up - don't miss this one keith :wink

[presto]

:splapme

[presto]

the next one will be a biggie

[Win2Win]

:D I missed Chiam the other day......would have been OK today if the jocks on Eisteddfod & Quest realised the way to win it to put the horse in the race!! :doh

Longest losing run in 12 years is 6.....:geek

[presto]

very dissapointed with eisteddfod - that bet was written off before the halfway point - quest was a lot closer though, after seing it's last run i was sure it would get up to win (perhaps it was just giving away too much weight).
still i suppose it's better to get the scary runs over and done with early - a nice big priced winner will do nicely tommorow though :)

[Win2Win]

Not sure it'll have a qualifier tomorrow........ya never know though.

[presto]

i have a feeling it will be a 10/1 winner - but i was asleep after watching the boxing till 6am. and just turned betfair on intime to see it hit 1.01 :mad:

[presto]

that was just rubbish - possibly the biggest bet i have had on a horse, trailing behind, then falls less than halfway round :mad: (possibly talking from pocket )

and we have equaled the longest losing run of 6 :( - the next one really could do with winning, especially as the one after is at short odds and wouldn't recover much. (edit NR)

[presto]

well we've beaten the 12 year record with less than 40 'live' bets :splapme

[alianzalima]

i think i will pass on this now and spread whats left of my bank around the NH systems which are a bit steadier and don't need astronomical stakes on selections that run badly. Nice to have been part of history though. good luck to all that stick with it.
iain

[presto]

not sure what to think myself.

the SR started off fantastic 14W/4L - yet the 'straight line' shows minimal growth of 2.4% - with the longest losing run of 1. - the adv winning odd's during this period are very short (around .6 ish).

then there is a slight dip before a big rise, this was the result of a losing run of 3 before the biggest bet 'so far' on a 5/2 shot (biggest odd's so far). if the selection were on an adveradge priced selection, we would not see this big a rise.

then another slight downturn - with 2 losers on the trot followed by a .4 long odd's on winner, which did not quite recoup the 2 previous losses.

then we hit our losing run of 7 - the odds here are rather higher than previously - only 2 out of the 7 are odd's on. and there are a couple of 2/1 shots and even a 4.3/1 shot - the staking is also getting very high - the last 2 bets are 50X more than the starting stake :yikes: - and the last 3 bets really do a lot of damage to the bank.

..............................................................................

it's quite hard to get a good idea of the system from such a small sample, but a few things pop out:

the odd's are quite varied - even though they are all FC FAV's there are some bigger prices getting in there. and with bigger odd''s then the stepping plan looks suicidal.

the adv odds of the last 7 selections are 1.77/1 (2.77 betfair) - so with a very aggressive staking plan a high SR is vital, so when the odd's raise (quite dramatically) the SR is sure to drop.

i am also concerned about the growth when on a good run - the graph shows very little growth when on a fantastic run. the only visable increse is when a large priced winer is selected after a losing run has built up the stake.

i would also hazzard a guess that unless the next winner is quite a high priced one (now the stake is massive - in comparrison to the bank) it could be a good while before any recovery is made.

.......................................................................

just my thaughts.

[Mavrick]

How's this going for people? I'm probably gonna set up a couple of banks for this and the "system banker"

[tophatter]

like the system banker software I have only been using a couple of months.

Had a starting bank of £500 it now stands at £515.00 but a lot less bets than I have done on the banker system. Had to place a biggish bet on fat boy as i was on a losing run of 5 and it was odds on but it was less than £30 on a £500 bank so 6% wasnt too hard.

I only do at weekends and when im not at work so Im running at a slower rate on this and the banker software than other might.

I would recommend it, but as we always say you have to accept you can bust a bank and you have to be prepared to follow through what it tells you to stake and that means placing what seem very small bets as well as some bigger ones.

[Mavrick]

Thanks alot for that.

[Win2Win]

Qualifiers have been lower than average over the last few month, down to the weather as it usually doesn't select many on bad ground, and then when good ground comes back all the trainers enter horses, so few short prices to pick from.....bring on the NH :)

[tophatter]

31/08

Just the one qualifier - Arenas dream. It won at 0.65. It looked like it had little chance at one stage and i see it traded in play at over 40/1!

Bank increase on day is 0.07%


I have now placed 44 bets using this software with 22 winners giving 50% strike rate. My profit is now 2.67%

[tophatter]

1/09

two bets today - one winner.

Bank increase on day os 0.10%

I have now placed 46 bets using this software with 23 winners giving 50% strike rate. May profit is now 2.77%

[tophatter]

4/09/07

3 bets today with two winners

Bank increase on day was 0.17%

I have now placed 49 bets using this software with 25 winners giving 51% strike rate. My profit is now 2.94%

[Mavrick]

I know this isn't what it was designed for, but does anyone foresee any problems if I use this software with lay selections? Just converting exchange prices to fractions and flipping them over to give me the odds of my bet and plugging them into Keiths program.

The lays cut-off is 2/1 and quite a lot of the time they're under 6/4 and so far my longest losing run is 2 or 3 so the stakes shouldn't go mental that often.

What do you guys think? I thought it was a great idea, but maybe I'm missing something.

[Win2Win]

The software staking relies on the SR, longest predicted losing run & average odds being the same as the selections I supply, as that is what the formula is set for. Use it for anything else at your own risk.

[Mavrick]

Cheers Keith. I have been having a little play and it does not quite work out how I thought beacuse my return will always be even money minus commision, not the inverted odds as a fraction. so maybe that is not such a great idea.

However I have come up with a basic staking plan which I originally thought was quite conservative, but with 4 plus losers on the trot, which should be very rare it gets rather hairy. My idea was 1% staking until I hit a loser and then my stake will be whatever my previous loss was plus 20%. I am now thinking maybe previous loss lpus 15%, or dropping the stake to 0.80% or both.

[Win2Win]

Only betting to recover the lossed stake is usually best if you MUST do this with laying, and only profit on the actual losers.

[Mavrick]

Right, that sounds a safer option. Thanks.

[Pip]

Keith,
Do you have the results on a spreadsheet like all your other systems, as Ican't seem to find them anywhere, apart from the results section and then their seems only to be few. I prefer your spreadsheets as you can mess around the banks and staking plan

cheers

[Win2Win]

http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showpost.php?p=429115&postcount=11

[Pip]

Cheers Keith:thumbs