Godspot's Handicap 'HOT,' Ting!

[Godspot]

Welcome to the madness within.....

There is a fine example running today of a system qualifier at Musselburgh in the 1.20. The first thing a horse can do to get into my Notebook is clock a Racing Post TopSpeed of 110 or more - it can often be a Personal/Career Best or a Seasonal Best. What could be of the most importance in the long term is whether it was the horses, Most Recent figure achieved.

1.20 Mussel 20f gd Class 4
(+21) Geton, Noted (ts), most recent, fresh (64, days slr), but wrong trip.

The other thing Geton has achieved is enough runs to secure an Official H'cap Rating, this rating [105] is below his achieved Topspeed figure [112]. Set to carry 11-0 today that figure is adjusted to [112+14=126]. That figure sets him apart from other chasers today.

This may take months to come to fruition but all i know is, Geton's Topspeed is (+7) over his OR, when adjusted for wght carried it can be accentuated to the lefthand figure above of (+21). That would look good in a h'cap and we might have to wait.

Like a few other recent qualifiers, (Billy Bray, Flintoff & Labelthou etc) Geton today is running 1/2 mile further than when he achieved his speed fig. No bet.

The Rules.

Must have run in a race where someone has clocked a TopSpeed of 110 or more and the TopSpeed figure is above it's OR.

This is a cutt-off point between horses & donkeys, at least our qualifier has been in a race with a bit of pace.

Take Brave Villa for ex. When I noted Nenuphar Collonges I happened to note that the second Brave Villa had clocked a 95 ts & had an OR of 88. He was running above his rating & has won twice since & is still improving.

Must be returning to the trip & going where the speed figure was achieved. Unless like yesterday (in the case of Roman Ark), we have specifically noted that a horse may improve for the distance.

Must have an adjusted TS that is within a few lb's or more of the OR of the top weight. This shows that potentially our horse can run above the class it is runing in.

There's an interesting little h'cap hdle this afternoon that I would term as Bubbling Under.

2.20 Mussel (0-115) 16f gd

(-1) CLASSIC CROCO 29 fresh, D & most recent,
(+7) BALLYHURRY 16
(+7) BASINET 37 BF, fresh, D
(+17) FAIR SHAKE 23
(+9) TARAS KNIGHT 36 fresh & D,
(+24) I'LL DO IT TODAY 27 fresh, D & most recent,

The top weight Classic Croco has clocked a [112ts] behind Tipperary All Star, but is set to race off [115,OR] & his adjusted rating doesn't leave him clear of his OR, hence the (-1) above. Looking through the card to speed fig's to within a few lb's of the top rated you end up with a little list as above. There are two clear figures there. Fair Shake's (+17) & I'll Do It Today's (+24). I've barely heard of the former's trainer but the latter's had a winner yesterday. If you need anymore assurance as to which one to be on, recent trainer form could be the decider. Let's make another rule:

Trainer must have had a winner within the last 14 days.

I have highlighted a few qualifiers here & I hope laid down the basis of a developing system. All comments welcome...

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Thanks for posting the rules.

It would be a good idea to post the qualifiers in the relevant section - a simple list with a running profit/loss calculation is the preferred style. If you are expecting plenty of qualifiers, it would be good if you began a new thread each week but if there won't be that many, a monthly thread will suffice.

Good Luck.

[Godspot]

The number of qualifiers depends on the number of rules you intend to abide by.

Another rule: must be the only qualifier in the race, or one that is well clear (7lb+, say) of the others, or one whose 'most recent,' shows 'rapid' improvement.

Like I said this was a developing system & it is developing as I write. Today I applied some of the above rules to the card at Kempton. As I thought, in races where the adjusted speed figures were above the top weights OR, I came up with these qualifiers:


1.3 Kemp(aw) (0-65) 10f std

(+17) 3 BRONZE STAR 25, nr fresh, Noted, D & Pers Best last x,
(+20) 5 RED SAIL 34, D, fresh
(+19) 4 LADY PILOT 7, fit,
(+19) 6 MILK AND SULTANA 13 CD, fit,

2 Kemp(aw) (0-92) 5f std

(+3) 4 GRAZE ON 9 fit & D,
(+18) 5 HARRY UP 24 fit, & D
(+19) 4 TARTATARTUTA 8 fit & D
(+8) 4 RARE CROSS 29 fresh & D
(+26) 3 BRANDYWELL BOY 7 fit, wrong D,

3.3 Kemp(aw) (0-52) 8f std

(+25) 3 ALMOWJ 59 fresh & D,

Now I don't like the AW racing but I think we can apply a little maths to good effect here as well. Like I say, this could be applied throughout the whole scale of the handicap but I usually deal in the ones at the higher end, the higher the ratings, the more reliable usually.

As to whether I do weekly/monthly threads should be determined by the fact that this system is h'cap based and life can move pretty quick in this sphere, recent examples being Overstrand & Brave Villa, coming out under penalties, after achieving recent personal bests. Weekly should do, with maybe a monthly review, (I know from previous experience that the horses I note in November & February are the best, NH anyway) if that's alright with you lot.

See what tomorrow brings.......

[Profit Seeker]

Sometimes I think I'm a genius :laugh with my own very easily found systems when I read other people's efforts!! Maybe I just got lucky...:ooo

[Godspot]

It's quite simple really, the quickest way to sort the chaff from the wheat is to click on the Racing Post's, Postdata icon. You can see at a glance who is ahead on the figures & all those ticks & crosses help the process of elimination.

[Profit Seeker]

Figures schmigures, try a totally different route, as a supplement of course. :box

[Godspot]

Excusez, Moi non-comprendez, you speak Czech? It's all Pole Star to me... Or would you rather I read your horoscope using Numerology?

Weren't there some eminent mathematician or physicist who said, "Everything is numbers," at some point back there?

Are you sure it is Profit you seek & not Prophecy, I have these visions, do you see?

I know, you're a genius, I'll use Numerology to tell the horses fortune (I mean, their dates of birth are all published in the RP) and incorporate that in my selections. Is that the kind of route you're on about? I doubt it, are you sure you're on the right thread?

[Profit Seeker]

You're right it is all figures. I'll rephrase it, RP ratings schmarpee schmatings. Especially all this emphasis on a horse's weight, if it's gonna win it'll win with 4 jockeys on it's back imo. As for my username, I should change it really as the seeking is long over with. I've proofed over 200pts worth of profit on this forum in a matter of a few months...how are yours going again? :)

[bigcumba]

Can we lock you pair in a padded cell together, or given this is all about numbers schnumbers, how about a padded excel :rolleyes:

[Profit Seeker]

Stick him in a room full of bit chy women if u like, I'm happy alone with my padded pc. :box

[Godspot]

Very proffetic PS, very proffetic! :helper

The girls (when I say girls - I mean BIG mamas - we call 'em the Teletubbies) downstairs are throwing a party. But I was beginning to think I was stuck in a room of beachy women, right here on this thread! :laugh

If Never So Blue don't win in a minute, I will reconsider...

How many months exactly to proof 200pts? There may be a slight variation in the rules but I reckon I'll match that by Gold Cup day. Would that be good enough for you?

[vegyjones]

587215 points!

[Profit Seeker]

How many months exactly to proof 200pts? There may be a slight variation in the rules but I reckon I'll match that by Gold Cup day. Would that be good enough for you?

Yes, that's ONE POINT PER BET not advised stake crap. LSP recorded after every day of betting...in English too. I'll offer 1/1000 against, any takers?

[Godspot]

I started noting horses who’s Split Second rating was above their OR, I have a little list of what I term as Bubbling Under my main Notebook. So far it has resulted in Brown Fox, 4th, Zimbabwe, 1st 2/1f, Our Samson, 2nd evs fav & NOW!

That was posted on the qualifiers thread a few days ago but that little list now has Fearless Foursome (won twice), Quibble & now Anshabil (first winner on the Betfair account) amongst the qualifiers & basically Bubbling Under using Raceform's SS is profitable, regardless of any rules.

I'll have a couple of quid on myself at your 1,000/1 but to be fair you weren't to know the above so I'll halve it if you like.

I know Bubbling Under (would be ironic after that Mad Coincidence Bet thread of a couple of weeks ago, if BU (the horse) was to win tomorrow) has a couple of qualifiers entered up Fri & Sat, so wouldn't mind starting tomorrow. I'll post some rules to do with stake plan later.

[Godspot]

For some reason (probably to do with the fact that SS is a compressed scale of ratings) Raceform's SS throws up a different class of horse to Topspeed. TS highlights horses that are rising through the ranks of the h'cap which are capable of winning Class 1 & 2 races, whereas SS pinpoints horses towards the bottom end of the h'cap which are running ahead of their official mark. These horses are unlikely to have run in a race where someone runs a Topspeed of 110 or more. Hence the term Bubbling Under for Raceform's SS qualifiers. So I need a few more rules:

If it is BU, (at present these are showing a level stake profit, regardless of any rules) there are no rules, other than whether or not I think it is a value bet.

If it is not BU, then the rules above can apply.

I think if i had adopted a staking method like the one PS mentions above then the 'Andycap system selection thread would be showing a profit, so I will adopt that stake method. No more splitting 1 unit between three horses, each horse has it's own unit but may be split if I declare it an EW selection.

That should do to be getting on with, let the challenge begin.....

[bigcumba]

Reading through this thread, and taking into account which part of the forum this is, does anyone other than Godspot himself actually understand the rules to this system?




The Rules.

Must have run in a race where someone has clocked a TopSpeed of 110 or more and the TopSpeed figure is above it's OR.

This is a cutt-off point between horses & donkeys, at least our qualifier has been in a race with a bit of pace.

Must be returning to the trip & going where the speed figure was achieved. Unless like yesterday (in the case of Roman Ark), we have specifically noted that a horse may improve for the distance.



'Ifs' and 'buts' like that are no use to anyone trying to follow this. Either a horse qualifies via strict rules, or it doesn't



Must have an adjusted TS that is within a few lb's or more of the OR of the top weight.



OK, how many is a few?




The number of qualifiers depends on the number of rules you intend to abide by.


Again - system betting means you follow all the rules to the letter, otherwise it's NOT a system - it's a method.


Another rule: must be the only qualifier in the race, or one that is well clear (7lb+, say) of the others, or one whose 'most recent,' shows 'rapid' improvement.

Clear as mud - I mean surely that last bit has to be quantified so folk can actually do this for themselves, otherwise you'll have everyone finding different qualifiers every time. (Actually I'd be surprised if many folk have got this far)


If it is BU, (at present these are showing a level stake profit, regardless of any rules) there are no rules, other than whether or not I think it is a value bet.

If it is not BU, then the rules above can apply.

Ah right, I'm glad that's cleared that up then...

so to summarise this....

back Vegy's tips.... :laugh

[Profit Seeker]

:laugh

[Godspot]

Point(s) taken & I'll get back to you.

[Godspot]

1/ Oi! PS, what happened to your :box ? I think that sort of smug grin suits you better but I have no doubt that you are entitled to a :laugh :laugh :laugh

2/ I am sacking the Raceform's SS, BU (Bubbling Under) selections. Like I said previously they highlight a different type of horse to Topspeed and basically they are donkeys officially rated somewhere between 70-90. I can't be doing with them.

Secondly:

I think you're right Bigcumba, that this is more of a method than a system. I can probably turn it into a system. Each week you can easily spot a select few qualifiers from the results in the RP/Weekender. Then it just comes down to a few rules concerning, Class, Distance & Going of their next run. Seeing as you have taken time to put the rules to some scrutiny, I am going to go back through the results, check qualifiers & their progress or failings & see if they can help to quantify decisions concerning the rules.

It may be all there is, but there is still hope! :ermmm

[bigcumba]

I look forward to seeing what you come up with mate, you're obviously on the right track as it were, just need a bit of tweaking and filtering and tightening up of the actual rules... best of luck!

[Godspot]

I don’t think we’re going to have enough qualifiers that run to make 200pts by Gold Cup day but the workings are profitable nevertheless.

We are looking at about 1/3 @ over 3/1 return & that’s enough for me to continue.....

First thing to go is the (+4)'s, we wipe 1/3rd of all losers by making (+5, (that is 5 topspeed points above official rating)) the qualifying mark.

Having no resource to an Irish equivalent of Weight Watcher, I'm afraid the Irish qualifiers have to go as well. It's all too confusing, what with quick reappearances, no Postdata for Irish meets - too time consuming trying to work out who still qualifies, so they're out. (However I am keeping a couple in, that have qualified in British races).

We only lost one winner by making a rule that the trainer must have had a winner within the last 14 days, so we'll keep that one.

Now that I have stopped qualifying non-h'cap form I think that the trip is not so important, though there was the case of Digital Fortress who was stepped up a mile last week.
The same could be said for the going as well, some horses like Juveigneur can qualify on unsuitable going & can be expected to do better on another surface.


Must have run in a race where someone has clocked a TopSpeed of 110 or more and the TopSpeed figure is above it's OR.

This is a cutt-off point between horses & donkeys, at least our qualifier has been in a race with a bit of pace.

Must be returning to the trip & going where the speed figure was achieved. Unless like yesterday (in the case of Roman Ark), we have specifically noted that a horse may improve for the distance.

This is a bit of a sticking point in determining this as a system. What I wouldn't mind doing (if it's alright with you lot) is posting trip & going suitabilities with the qualifiers.
I'd like to keep an updated index of qualifiers on one thread or post even, so that they are all in alphabetical order. There is an indexed list of old qualifiers on the System Qualifier thread & that is just about to get updated.

To Qualify:

Please refer to your Racing Post Weekender results section & look for h’caps (at the minute I’m only dealing with chasers & hurdlers, AW & Flat will have to wait a bit) where someone has achieved a Top Speed figure of 110 or more. Then we see whether the TS figure is 5lb/pts+ above it’s OR & whether any other runners’ TS is above their OR by the same or better margin of 5lb/pts. Now we have to consult the Weight Watcher section & see whether, after their weight revision, their TS figure is still 5lb/pts above their OR. For those few that are – they are our qualifiers. I will then do a bit of research into their dist & going requirements & post the results with the qualifiers about once a week.

I'm doing rather a lot of work on excel at present but the qualifier thread should be updated hopefully in time for tomorrow's racing - war & weather permitting :ermmm