best race to lay?

[jamierobertsona]

Hi all, just wondering, in your expert opinions, out of all of a days racing, which race has the best chance of the favourite winning? For eg, class 1 or class 6? 6f or 3miles? handicap or maidens? 4 horses or 16? The list could go on. The reason I ask, I am looking to lay just 1 horse per day but I dont know what sort of race would be best to lay in. I am looking to lay outsiders which is why I would like to know what sort of race the favourite would have more chace of winning. I know favourites only win about 33% of races, but surely there must be a particular type of race that the fav wins most of the time.

Any help to make me decide would be fantastic,

Thanks, Jamie

[presto]

you could lay the golden lays,

as for fav's:
non-handicap fav's win more than handicaps.
NH fav's win more than flat favs (i reckon anyway, without looking at stats).
if you are just looking for one a day then you could look at the shortest priced horse of the day.

..............................
but as for laying the outsiders - non of the above info would really matter much anyway, as a 33/1 shot in a 5 runner non-handicap has the same chance as winning as a 33/1 shot in a 24 runner handicap.

also with laying outsiders - 1 winning lay will bite a big chunk out of your bank. if you do lay outsiders - there are masses of them to chose from - as 3/4 of runners in each race can be classed as outsiders. or 1/2 of them if you want to go for real outsiders - so there would be plenty of work just chosing 1 (the best lay selection) to lay.

[bigcumba]

The easiest way to start sorting them is by handicap / non handicap faves win much less handicaps - closer to 20%. Other than that it's pretty difficult to say on a day to day basis... I imagine (though I may be wrong) that lower class races such as banded racing might have less favourites winning, and when you have poor quality jumps races where haf the field have had problems finishing races in the past you might find something to go with there. It'll be worth your while having a look at the favourite stats pages on Adrian Massey's site for more definite answers.

[wb]

Laying outsiders has proved very difficult, and most people I know cut-off at 10.5 or under. The problem with looking back through the SP's is that you will need to add at least 20-30% on top of that for betfair laying prices (outsiders). This makes the margins very tight indeed. Remember, a 33/1 shot would easily be available at 50-60/1 on betfair, often more.
Personally, I can't make any money from laying long shots.

[Mavrick]

Not the advise you want hear, but there's no difference in backing or laying in the respect that if you don't know anything about the horse or it's opposition and you don't have a clue about forming your own prices then you either need to study your :censored: off until you do, buy a system, subscribe to this site or as you're only looking for one lay a day then the golden lay is perfect for you and best of all it's free. The shorter the price of horse the smaller the over lay. Most of the favourites I lay are underlayed. If a favourite wins a certain type of race more often then in others the chances are that will be factored into it's price so you will have to delve a bit deeper into the stats. Best of luck

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