All favs loosing

[jamierobertsona]

Hi all, I know favourites win about 30% of races, but is it common, or has it ever happened, for a favourite to not win one single race in a days meeting. If it has happened before, do you think it was a one off?

Many thanks, Jamie

[presto]

about a year ago, maybe less - 50+ fav's lost, one after the other.

[Win2Win]

It's not statistically unusual to have a day with no winning Favs. At 30%, 14 losers in a row isn't much of a problem, that covers 2 meetings...

[bigcumba]

about a year ago, maybe less - 50+ fav's lost, one after the other.

Yep, that actually spread across 3 days with one full day in the middle

[MattR]

Hi all, I know favourites win about 30% of races, but is it common, or has it ever happened, for a favourite to not win one single race in a days meeting. If it has happened before, do you think it was a one off?

Many thanks, Jamie

Jamie, If you are thinking along the lines of a loss recovery system using this then in one word, don't, as I'm sure everyone else on here will tell you.

[jamierobertsona]

Now I know most punters say "dont do the recovery loss system with favs and stop at a winner" but just hear me out.

I have been paper trading for afew months now and every single day, if I was trying to win £10 on every race bet on, I would have won each day, stopping at £100 per day. So lets say over a month, betting mon to fri, I won £2000. If I set myself a loss limit of lets say £500, even when there is a freek racing day with no winning favs, I still reckon I would be up at the end of the month. Now lets face it, I know there is the odd day without any winning favs, but this hardly happens. I cant see in any one month there will be 4 whole days without any winning favs ( the number of days required to wipe out £2000) and even if there was, at the end of the day, all betting is a gamble, isn't it?

In the last few months I have been paper trading, the most races before a fav won has been 7. Its usually every 3 to 4 races a fav has won.

Just a thought! Does anyone, or is anyone trying this method at the moment?

[presto]

if you have a loss limit of £500 for example, then it's not just about having a day without fav's winning - it's also about having a day when you don't excede your loss-limit (a few very short odd's on losers could do this). then theres the times when races overlap which oftens sometimes - especially on busy days, or even if there is a delay (fallen jock, inspection etc...) which may mak 2 races overlap - then you may miss a winning fav.

you will also need to do a bit of work on excel, to work out your potential winnings / stake after commish, as on a big bet the commish may wipe out the profit and give you an overall loss.

will it work?
i don't know - it's basically backing fav's which is negative expectation betting in the long run, tied to a risky staking plan. there seems to be a fair bit of randomness to it all IMO, you will be relying on a steady stream of winning fav's with the ideal LLW LLW LLW LLW ratio - which is statistically correct but losing runs of 8+ are fairly common in real betting sictuations, to profit in the long run you will need 5+ winning days to losing days ratio, which just cannot be guaranteed. i would expect long winning runs - but the losing days will gobble up a weeks work in one go.

IMO the randomness, would be a no-no for me and i wouldn't advise it. but if you did decide to go for it then i would probably reccomend lowering the £10 to £2, and building up gradually.

[bigcumba]

Just a thought! Does anyone, or is anyone trying this method at the moment?

I tried this sort of idea a few years ago and twice ended up with 4 figure bets to win back losses and make a tenner profit... once it came off, the other time it wiped out my bank completely. Not for the faint hearted, and I'd urge you strongly to not go down that road as it's likely to turn nasty and cost you.

[Win2Win]

Forcing the bank to recover a set profit every run is GUARANTEED to break the bank at some point 100%.

What you are saying is so simple everyone would be doing it, and surprise, surprise, everyone who has a little understanding of maths/stats has tried it.....and guess what....all lost there banks.

If it were that simple, pro-gamblers would not be putting in 8-14hrs a day. Constantly researching, form reading, watching every race. We'd all be sitting on a nice island in the Sun surrounded by 40 virgins!

Another thing? Why stop? The racing doesn't. You have a load of losers in a row, end up staking £2000 to win £10.....it wins....your heart is fast....your sweating....but you made you £10.....and just saved the bank....so rules say you stop......only to see the last 8 Favs of the day all win at decent prices.....

[Win2Win]

This is a good example;

http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/stakingplansChaseLosingBets.asp

[Onlyforfun]

And there wasn't even any odds on shots in that example, if there was a 1/2 fav in there and it loses :helper

Evryone who's ever gambled has tried it in some form or another, and eventually it fails. If you must, use a small bank and a tiny starting stake.