wb versus the handicapper [Archive] - Win2Win UK Horse Racing Forum. Free Tips. Staking Advice.

12th January 2007, 03:06

This has been going well at home, so I’m going to post the trial here for a while to keep me disciplined.

I will be attempting to spot horses who, in my opinion, have been treated too leniently in the weight - and have a better chance of winning than the handicapper seems to think.

Rules:

I will post the selections before the days racing - probably the night before.

Prices:
I have found that the best value for some of these selections is usually just before the off, so prices will not be updated until the end of the day. (I will be using auto-betfair to place the bets 5 minutes before the off, and the prices I get matched at will be used)

Staking:
Stakes will initially be 3% of the bank adjusted daily. This may change depending on the strike rate. [EDIT: Staking changed to 2% from post 236]

[EDIT NO 2: Stakes were changed to 1% of the bank from post 255]

Starting bank is £1000

12th January 2007, 03:06

Starting Bank: £1000

12.50 Hunt - Ikemba
2.50 Hunt - Sybarite Chief

Todays Stakes: £30

12th January 2007, 16:13

12.50 Hunt - Ikemba 2nd Price matched: 5.3
2.50 Hunt - Sybarite Chief 9th Price matched: 5.5

Stats.
No. Bets: 2
Winners: 0
Strike Rate: 0.00%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £940.00

Current Bank: £940.00

Next Stake: £28.20

13th January 2007, 00:59

Today's Bets (Saturday) Stakes: £28.20

2.35 Ling - Barry Island
2.55 Punch - Atlantic Rhapsody

3.30 War - L'Aventure

2.20 Weth - Heltornic
2.50 Weth - William Bonney
3.20 Weth - Posh Stick

13th January 2007, 16:46

No Winners. Heltornic was a NR

Stats.

No. Bets: 7
Winners: 0
Strike Rate: 0.00%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £940.00

Current Bank: £855.40

Next Stake: £25.66

15th January 2007, 12:48

3.30 Plum - Ebony Jack

Stake: £25.66

16th January 2007, 14:58

Loses.

I may have a couple more later, but I just want to get the 2:00 up:

2:00 South - Ice & Fire

Today's stake: £24.89

16th January 2007, 15:03

One more for today:

3:00 South - Global Strategy

Today's stake: £24.89

16th January 2007, 16:14

2:00 South - Ice & Fire :(
3:00 South - Global Strategy :) - Price matched: 1.72

Stats.

No. Bets: 10
Winners: 1
Strike Rate: 10%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £822.77

Current Bank: £822.77

Next Stake: £24.68

17th January 2007, 13:57

Todays Stakes: £24.68

(In the 3.40 at Newb, there are 2 qualifiers. Stake is split in two, so £12.34 goes on each)

3.20 Newc - Political Cruise
3.40 Newb - Shining Joy
3.40 Newb - Moorlands Return
4.05 Ling - Rapid City

17th January 2007, 18:47

3.20 Newc - Political Cruise:(
3.40 Newb - Shining Joy:(
3.40 Newb - Moorlands Return:(
4.05 Ling - Rapid City:) (Price Matched: 1.52)

Stats.

No. Bets: 14
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 14.29%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £786.27

Current Bank: £786.27

Next Stake: £23.59

18th January 2007, 13:00

To the annonymous neg repper - This is a TRIAL. While it is not in profit at the moment, 14 bets is nothing to go by at all. I'm not saying it will turn around, it may not - but neg rep? I have other systems here and elsewhere that show profit. I'm simply trying something out here.

23rd January 2007, 13:43

I don't have auto-betfair today, so early prices will be used.

The 2:20 at Thurles has 2 qualifiers, so the stake is split evenly on both horses.

2:20 Thur - Conem - 5.2 (£11.79)
2:20 Thur - Demesne - 30 (£11.79)
3:10 Sth - Pass the Port - 3.65 (£23.59)

MattR

23rd January 2007, 14:08

You really got neg repped??? :ermmm

23rd January 2007, 14:10

You really got neg repped??? :ermmm

I sure did!

It's not like I made the guy back the selections or anything :geek

23rd January 2007, 17:12

No winners.

Stats.

No. Bets: 14
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 12.5%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £739.09

Current Bank: £739.09

Next Stake: £22.17

vegyjones

23rd January 2007, 17:22

I sure did!

It's not like I made the guy back the selections or anything :geek

No hard feelings :peeky

:giggle:

bigcumba

23rd January 2007, 18:23

To the annonymous neg repper - .

I'm pretty certain who did that Wayne, and you can be sure you're not the only one who has been neg repped by this particular half wit recently. Consider that neg rep returned back at him with interest from me :)

24th January 2007, 12:59

Not going too well at the moment, but I'll plug away for another while.

Today's Stake: £22.17

2:10 Cat - Welcome to Unos
2.50 Ling - Imperial Lucky
3.30 Hunt - Nice Try

24th January 2007, 16:56

The carniage continues. No winners.

Loss: £66.51

Stats.

No. Bets: 16
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 12.5%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £672.58

Current Bank: £672.58

Next Stake: £22.18

25th January 2007, 12:54

I don't have auto-betfair today, so early prices will be taken.

Stakes: £22.18

1.40 War - Onyourheadbeit - 13.0
2.15 Gowr - Jigalo - 4.7

26th January 2007, 13:32

Bank is now a paltry £628.22

Again, I don't have auto-betfair today, so early price will be used.

2.50 Here - Linnet - 3.2 (£18.85)

27th January 2007, 13:03

Bank is £609.37. Todays stakes are £18.28. Where there are more than one qualifer in the same race, the stake is split in two. Early prices taken:

Lingfield
12.35 - St. Petersburg - 5.7
2.20 - Inch by Inch - 9.4
2.55 - Tous les Deux - 34
2.55 - Kilmandscharo - 3.95

Cheltenham
3.55 - Idole First - 6.4

Southwell
1.50 - Almaydan - 9.8
1.50 - Mr Prickle - 4
2.25 - Little Big Horse - 16.5

27th January 2007, 17:16

A nice high priced winner get me back in the game. Unfortunately, there were two qualifiers in the race, so the stake was split in half.

12.35 - St. Petersburg - 5.7:(
2.20 - Inch by Inch - 9.4:(
2.55 - Tous les Deux - 34:)
2.55 - Kilmandscharo - 3.95:(

Cheltenham
3.55 - Idole First - 6.4:(

Southwell
1.50 - Almaydan - 9.8:(
1.50 - Mr Prickle - 4:(
2.25 - Little Big Horse - 16.5:(

Profit: £201.08

Stats.

No. Bets: 27
Winners: 3
Strike Rate: 11.11%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £873.66

Next Stake: £26.21

bigcumba

27th January 2007, 17:43

This is rubbish, only one 33/1 winner today. For goodness sake I have a wife and kid to support and a mortgage to pay, if you can't do any better than that I'm going in a huff. :wink

sjones

27th January 2007, 19:15

Well done Wayne! Lovely priced winner. :wiggle:

30th January 2007, 14:25

I don't have betfair auto today, so early prices taken. Stakes: £26.21

1.30 Sth - Bienheureux - 13.5
3.30 Sth - Count Cougar - 7.2
3.40 Taun - Norton Sapphire - 2.74
3.50 Folk - Ishka Baha - 4.9

30th January 2007, 17:08

1.30 Sth - Bienheureux - 13.5:(
3.30 Sth - Count Cougar - 7.2:)
3.40 Taun - Norton Sapphire - 2.74:(
3.50 Folk - Ishka Baha - 4.9:(

Profit: £88.87

Stats.

No. Bets: 31
Winners: 4
Strike Rate: 12.9%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £957.53

Next Stake: £28.73

31st January 2007, 14:44

Early prices taken. Stakes: £28.73

1.50 Newc - Glenfarclas Boy - 4.8
3.40 Leic - Lizzy Bathwick - 10
4.10 Leic - Major Jon - 9

1st February 2007, 12:56

Bank: £871.34
Stakes: £26.14

Early prices taken.Where there is more than one selecion in the same race, full stakes will be used on both.

2.00 Tow - Lusaka De Pembo - 4.4
2.15 Thur - Abbeytown - 26
2.15 Thur - Royal Man - 7.2
2.30 Tow - Ever Special - 15

1st February 2007, 16:07

2.00 Tow - Lusaka De Pembo - 4.4:(
2.15 Thur - Abbeytown - 26:)
2.15 Thur - Royal Man - 7.2:(
2.30 Tow - Ever Special - 15:(

Another high priced winner :spinning

Profit: £575.08

Stats.

No. Bets: 35
Winners: 5
Strike Rate: 14.29%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £1532.61

Next Stake: £45.98

MattR

1st February 2007, 16:53

Nice one Wayne :) Maybe your mysterious neg repper will give them back now! :rolleyes:

Onlyforfun

1st February 2007, 17:34

Be honest, you used the Betfair pin didn't you? :laugh :laugh

Seriously, well done on that one.

1st February 2007, 21:58

Thanks lads. It's more of a value based idea (as opposed to who I feel will has the greatest chance of winning). If the horse is not carrying enough weight, and is overpiced, it gets backed despite the opposition. It had been going well at home, and sometimes went ages without a winner, however, a good few high prices always seems to level it out. Despite the rocky start, I'm pleased with it to date.

3rd February 2007, 11:58

Today's Stakes: £45.98

1.10 Ling - Prince Victor - 28
2.30 Fairy - Not Today Sir - 6.6
4.00 Ling - Orange Touch - 28

5th February 2007, 14:48

Bank: £1394.67 - Stake: £41.84

3.40 Ling - Mozakhraf - Early price of 5.1 taken.

6th February 2007, 12:10

Bank: £1352.83 - Stake: £40.58.

Early price taken.

4.10 Sth - Kylkenny - 22

6th February 2007, 20:13

:punch2

Take that Mr Handicapper! :wiggle:

A 21/1 winner.

4.10 Sth - Kylkenny - 22 :)

Today's Profit: £852.18

Stats.

No. Bets: 40
Winners: 6
Strike Rate: 15%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: current
Bank all-time low: £609.37
Average price of winners: 15.07

Current Bank: £2384.79

Next Stake: £71.54

Fadetoblack

6th February 2007, 22:08

Nice one wayne!

John

6th February 2007, 22:17

Well done that man. Top banana! :D

bigcumba

6th February 2007, 22:21

Crikey! Superb result Wayne, well worth all the hard work... keep that up and you'll be retiring soon! :)

MattR

6th February 2007, 22:23

Great stuff Wayne :wiggle:

7th February 2007, 11:01

Thanks lads!

Bank: £2384.79 - Today's stakes: £71.54

2.25 Ling - Homes by Woodford - 13.0
3.30 Ling - Katiypour - 7.6
4.10 DownR - All Rise - 40.0

8th February 2007, 12:14

Bank: £2170.17 - Stake: £65.11

Early price taken.

4.50 - Taun - Rocky's Girl - 2.7

sjones

9th February 2007, 02:10

A few nicely priced winners so far Wayne. Top stuff, keep it up! :)

9th February 2007, 13:20

Today's Selections:

All at Kempton. Bank: £2105.06 - Stakes: £63.15

3.10 - Charlies Double- 7.5
3.40 - Milan Deux Mille- 2.12
4.15 - Edgar Wilde - 15

10th February 2007, 00:11

One Short Priced winner today.

Stats.

No. Bets: 47
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 14.89%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £2384.79
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £2049.48

Next Stake: £61.48

10th February 2007, 01:35

Saturday Selections. Where there is more than one selection in a race, both selections get backed with the full amount.

Stakes: £61.48

1.50 Leop - Winning Council - 11
3.25 Leop - Well Mounted - 6
3.25 Leop - Jaamid - 5.2

1.30 Ling - Hiawatha -8.4
3.40 Ling - Mighty - 1.8

2.05 Newb - Double Dizzy - 8.8

10th February 2007, 19:44

Just the one short priced winner today.

Bank: £1791.26
Next Stake: £53.74

14th February 2007, 13:46

Today's Selections.

Early Prices taken. Stakes: £53.74

2.50 Ling - Night Cruise - 5.5
2.55 Fairy - Noadibou - 13.5
3.30 Muss - Capitalise - 8
4.00 Muss - Clouding Over - 10.5
4.20 Ling - Spring Glory - 4.7

14th February 2007, 18:33

One winner.

Profit today: £26.87

Stats.
No. Bets: 53
Winners: 9
Strike Rate: 15.52%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £2384.79
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £2076.35

Next Stake: £62.29

15th February 2007, 13:59

Today's bets.

I'll edit this post with prices closer to the off.

Stakes - £62.29

3.10 Kelso - Getinbybutonlyjust - Price Matched - 8.6
4.00 Sout - Cleveland - Price Matched - 5.5
4.25 Chep - All Sonsilver - Price Matched - 28

15th February 2007, 17:42

3.10 Kelso - Getinbybutonlyjust - Price Matched - 8.6 - 2nd
4.00 Sout - Cleveland - Price Matched - 5.5 - 5th
4.25 Chep - All Sonsilver - Price Matched - 28 - Won :) :spinning

Put that in your pipe and smoke it Mr. Handicapper!

Today's Profit: £1557.25

Stats.
No. Bets: 56
Winners: 10
Strike Rate: 17.86%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £3633.60

Next Stake: £109.01

presto

15th February 2007, 17:45

nice one

Fadetoblack

15th February 2007, 17:46

Well done again Wayne!

15th February 2007, 18:00

Cheers lads :)

Getinbybutonlyjust was robbed on the line and he would have made it an incredible day for me. However, I certainly can't be complaining at the way this is going.

buddhabee

15th February 2007, 19:15

Bloody hell :yikes:

Well done Wayne.

MattR

15th February 2007, 20:03

Great one again Wayne. :)

16th February 2007, 12:42

After a terriffic day yesterday, It's unlikely that lightning will strike twice, but you never know.

2 selections today. I'll update this post with the prices that I take closer to the off.

2.00 Fake - Alasil - Matched at 8.0
2.25 San - Dunbrody Millar - Matched at 4.9

Stakes: £109.01

GreenHorn

16th February 2007, 12:49

Currently at 7.8 and 4.9 respectively... Good Luck! :REGamblMo

16th February 2007, 12:52

Currently at 7.8 and 4.9 respectively... Good Luck! :REGamblMo

Thanks GreenHorn. I usually place the bets a few minutes before the off, so hopefully those prices will hold, or else rise. The value for the longer priced horses is definitely better before the off rather than early on, when the liquidity on the exchanges is fairly low.

16th February 2007, 15:33

No winners today.

Bank: £3415.58 - Next Stake: £102.47

16th February 2007, 22:54

Saturday's Selections. I'll update prices close to the off.

Stakes: £102.47

2.35 Hay - Carly's Quest - Price Matched 20.0
2.45 Uttox - Undeniable - Price Matched 15.0
3.10 Hay - Good Citizen - Withdrawn
3.50 Ling - Talbot Avenue - Price Matched 36.0
4.30 Uttox - Passenger Omar - Price Matched 2.78

bigcumba

16th February 2007, 22:57

Bank: £3415.58

Whoever said you couldn't get rich quick betting on racing hasn't met our Wayne! :)

16th February 2007, 23:00

Whoever said you couldn't get rich quick betting on racing hasn't met our Wayne! :)

It's all about the value big man!

:peeky

bigcumba

16th February 2007, 23:09

It's all about the value big man!

:peeky

:laugh :laugh :laugh gotta be worth some more rep

danbo1000

18th February 2007, 01:26

Bloody hell WB:yikes:
Well done mate, talk about making someone eat their words...

Not like I was your mystery neg repper or anything:peeky

18th February 2007, 13:15

Ha Ha, no worries danbo, The extra high prices of long shots on the exchanges has helped me along nicely.

No winners yesterday though.

Bank: £3005.70
Next Stake: £90.17

19th February 2007, 13:59

Bank: £3005.70

4.35 ling - Just Bond

Stake: £90.17

If betfair is back up running anytime soon, I'll be setting auto-betfair to place the bet a few minutes before the off. I will update the price that I get later.

20th February 2007, 13:05

Bank: £2915.53
Stakes: £87.46

Early Prices taken.

3.10 Taun - Brave Villa - 3.75
3.50 Sedge - Nevada Red - 3.8

20th February 2007, 17:07

3.10 Taun - Brave Villa - 3.75 :)
3.50 Sedge - Nevada Red - 3.8 :)

A good day today with 2 winners from 2 selections.

Profit: £485.41

Stats.
No. Bets: 65
Winners: 12
Strike Rate: 18.46%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £3633.60
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £3400.94

Next Stake: £102.03

Mavrick

20th February 2007, 17:40

Well done Wayne!!

20th February 2007, 18:36

Thanks Mavrick. I normally struggle to keep in the black during the NH season, so I'm obviously delighted with how this is going. I'm very interested as to how it will work on my preferred code (flat) in a couple of months time.

susanwells

20th February 2007, 19:02

Great stuff Wayne.. I had 2 singles and an e/w dble !

danbo1000

21st February 2007, 10:25

Merlin

21st February 2007, 13:43

Nice going - sunshine...

21st February 2007, 14:15

Thanks lads. Certainly can't complain at how this is going.

2 bets for today. Stakes: £102.03.

4.00 Lud - Sunday City - matched at 5.6
4.25 Punch - Ballynashig - matched at 14.0

susanwells

21st February 2007, 14:19

Thanks lads. Certainly can't complain at how this is going.

2 bets for today. Stakes: £102.03.

I'll update this post with the prices I take later on.

4.00 Lud - Sunday City
4.25 Punch - Ballynashig

Oi -- who are you calling a lad ??? :hearty

21st February 2007, 14:34

Opps. Sorry Susan. :splapme No more books in the post for me then!

susanwells

21st February 2007, 16:29

Opps. Sorry Susan. :splapme No more books in the post for me then!

No, that`s it now, you`re done for. I an unforgiving. :hearty

MattR

22nd February 2007, 12:17

If betfair is back up running anytime soon, I'll be setting auto-betfair to place the bet a few minutes before the off. I will update the price that I get later.

Wayne,

I've just downloaded Auto Betfair and I'm having a play around with it now. What have you found is the best settings to do with using it like that? I'm assuming something like setting it for around five/ten minutes before the race and setting the price range from low to your cut off for a lay and vice versa for a back. I'm thinking that this could be useful for greyhounds as otherwise it is something you have to be around to do and with races every few minutes you have to be 100% available for the time period. Setting auto betfair up for that could be very useful.

22nd February 2007, 12:18

Bank: £3196.88 - Stakes: £95.91

Early prices taken.

2.40 Hay - Corlande - 5
5.05 Hunt - Shady Anne - 14.5

22nd February 2007, 12:23

Wayne,

I've just downloaded Auto Betfair and I'm having a play around with it now. What have you found is the best settings to do with using it like that? I'm assuming something like setting it for around five/ten minutes before the race and setting the price range from low to your cut off for a lay and vice versa for a back. I'm thinking that this could be useful for greyhounds as otherwise it is something you have to be around to do and with races every few minutes you have to be 100% available for the time period. Setting auto betfair up for that could be very useful.

It depends on prices really. If it is likely to be 8.0 or over, I usually use auto-betfair (unless I'm at college like today, and wont have time to set it at home). The value on long shots is definitely found just before the off, so unless you can be at the pc all day, it comes in very handy indeed. I have not found much difference using it on horses priced 8 and lower.

Basically, I set the low to around 2 ticks below its RP forcast price (I don't want to be backing steamers at the low prices). I don't really have a limit on how high I'll take a price. I get it to place my bets around 3 minutes before the off. Note that your pc clock will be used to time the bets, so make sure it is accurate!

I find it very handy when I'm not at the pc. It is especially useful for markets that have low liquidity early on such as Irish racing (and I presume greyhounds too). You need to leave your computer switched on, and an internet connection must be established for it to work.

MattR

22nd February 2007, 12:25

Thanks for that Wayne. Looks a handy tool, especially if you're busy.

24th February 2007, 02:11

Saturday's bets.

Bank: £3005.06 - Stakes: £90.15

auto-betfair has been set to take the best price just before the off.

1.50 Newc - Stagecoach Opal - Matched at 3.05
2.55 Newc - Through the Rye - Matched at 14.0
4.20 Fairy - Rock Diplomat - Matched at 11.5
4.40 Ling - Smokin Beau - Matched at 26.0

MattR

24th February 2007, 16:05

2.55 Newc - Through the Rye - Matched at 14.0

Another cracker Wayne :wiggle:

24th February 2007, 16:07

Sure was Matt :)

24th February 2007, 17:52

1.50 Newc - Stagecoach Opal - Matched at 3.05:(
2.55 Newc - Through the Rye - Matched at 14.0 :wiggle:
4.20 Fairy - Rock Diplomat - Matched at 11.5 :(
4.40 Ling - Smokin Beau - Matched at 26.0 :(

Today's Profit: £991.65

Stats.
No. Bets: 73
Winners: 13
Strike Rate: 17.81%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: Current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £4392.59

Next Stake: £131.78

scaaty

24th February 2007, 19:37

Today's Profit: £991.65

WOW !!! Great going Wayne, very well done !

Been watching these with interest and used my fun bank for them today, got matched at 15.5 for Through The Rye so a lovely profit, thanks ! :)

24th February 2007, 20:57

WOW !!! Great going Wayne, very well done !

Been watching these with interest and used my fun bank for them today, got matched at 15.5 for Through The Rye so a lovely profit, thanks !

Good stuff scaaty. It's always good to hit the ground with your feet running. If you are going to follow this, I would recommend that you use between 2-3 percent of the bank as the backers stake.

With a strike rate of slightly under 20%, 2% of the bank would be the safe option. However, I'm using 3% at the moment which is more risky, but has potential for good profit. Choose whatever you are comfortable with, but stick with it. The big question will be as to how well it does when the flat season comes in.

Merlin

24th February 2007, 21:00

Sure if you keep doing what your doing now, no need to worry about the flat...on the contrary....

Mavrick

24th February 2007, 21:03

NIce one Wayne.
Who need the flats:)

25th February 2007, 13:24

Bank: £4392.59 - Stake: £131.78.

I've set auto betfair to place the bet today.

3.30 Kemp - Zazous

26th February 2007, 15:57

Bank: £4263.81 - Stake: £127.91

4.20 Plum - Tommy Carson - Matched at 4.3

Jonny2621

26th February 2007, 17:32

Nice one matey !! :D

26th February 2007, 17:38

Cheers Jonny :)

4.20 Plum - Tommy Carson - Matched at 4.3:)

Today's Profit: £422.10

Stats.
No. Bets: 75
Winners: 14
Strike Rate: 18.67%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: Current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £4814.69

Next Stake: £144.44

MattR

26th February 2007, 18:06

You've got to love the neg rep received way back, Wayne :laugh

26th February 2007, 18:23

Cheers Lads. Tommy Carson epitomised what I am trying to do here. I think the handicapper called it wrong, and Tommy Carson was (in my opinion) carrying too little weight for his ability. With the extended run in, stamina was needed, and too much weight would get in the way. Tommy Carson had that extra bit in the end, as he was lighter. Tallow Bay was second, and It's my party was 3rd, all of which were down in the weights.

Mavrick

26th February 2007, 18:49

You've got to love the neg rep received way back, Wayne :laugh

I've made up for it now!! :D

Just kidding it wasn't me.

27th February 2007, 14:33

Bank: £4814.69
Stakes: £144.44

In one of today's races there are 2 qualifiers. Both get backed with the full stake.

2.40 Catt - Over to Joe - Matched at 7.0
3.20 Leic - Ballyaahbutt - Matched at 4.0
4.00 Ling - Katiyour - Matched at 7.8
4.00 Ling - Regal Royle - Matched at 26.0
4.50 Leic - Parish Oak - Matched at 3.7
5.00 Ling - Finished Article - Matched at 44.0

27th February 2007, 18:43

No winners today.

Bank: £3933.08
Next Stake: £117.99

28th February 2007, 12:32

Bank: £3933.08
Stakes: £117.99

In one of today's races there are 2 qualifiers. Both get backed with the full stake. I'll update this post with the prices that I take later.

2.45 Folk - Pardon What Matched at 3.04
3.00 Down - Mono Matched at 4.9
3.20 Folk - Eastern Point Matched at 7.1
3.35 Down - Bluestone Lad Matched at 10
3.35 Down - News Item Matched at 6.1

28th February 2007, 16:56

Today's Results:

Two winners in Ireland see a decent return.

2.45 Folk - Pardon What Matched at 3.04:(
3.00 Down - Mono Matched at 4.9:)
3.20 Folk - Eastern Point Matched at 7.1:(
3.35 Down - Bluestone Lad Matched at 10:(
3.35 Down - News Item Matched at 6.1:)

Profit: £589.95

Stats.
No. Bets: 86
Winners: 16
Strike Rate: 18.60%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £4814.69
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £4523.03

Next Stake: £135.69

Jonny2621

28th February 2007, 17:05

top bombing son :D

MattR

28th February 2007, 17:30

Great stuff yet again Wayne :)

Mavrick

28th February 2007, 17:34

Stop putting everyone else to shame wb:D

28th February 2007, 18:06

Thanks guys. Yesterday was a difficult enough day with a loss of around £800. Thankfully, today's Irish racing at Downpatrick proved fruitful (including the Ulster grand national) and most of the losses have been recovered now.

I wish I had started this in the £1000 challenge section as it's the closest I've gotten to 5k to date!!

GreenHorn

28th February 2007, 22:31

Today's Results:

3.35 Down - News Item Matched at 6.1:)

I'd venture that this is another horse that epitomises this excellent system Wayne. Won this race last year and has suffered very little in the weight department since...

Cleared the last by about a foot and had plenty of horse left at the end - could've went round again! :cuck

28th February 2007, 22:43

Correct Greenhorn, this was exactly the type of race that I'm trying to exploit.

If you have a look at the card, News Item was 11th out of 15 in the weights carrying 10st 12lbs, with the topweight carrying a hefty 11-7. He was pulled up/fell a couple of times over the past year or so, but he proved last year that this race is exactly up his alley, and I was amazed when the weight was revealed to see him so light, especially since he won it last year. It's a good job for connections that I'm not the handicapper because I think he should have carried way more!

susanwells

1st March 2007, 00:17

:hearty Terrific stuff Wayne.. not tipping, a really shrewd way of looking at racing and beating the handicapper/bookies.. have some rep. :hearty

1st March 2007, 12:38

Bank: £4523.03
Stakes: £135.69

I've set auto-betfair to take the best available prices just before the off.

3.10 Lud - Pearly Star
3.40 Lud - Parkinson
5.00 Ling - Street Life

1st March 2007, 19:15

3.10 Lud - Pearly Star - Matched at 4:(
3.40 Lud - Parkinson - Matched at 3.3 :)
5.00 Ling - Street Life - Matched at 24 :(

One short priced winner shows a small profit today of £40.70

Bank: £4563.73
Next stake: £136.91

1st March 2007, 21:04

FRIDAY

Bank: £4563.73
Stake: £136.91

I'm not sure if I'll be about tomorrow (Friday), so I'll post this now. I'll be setting auto-betfair to place the bet.

4.15 Newb - Considene - Matched at 16.0

3rd March 2007, 02:46

Saturday.

Bank: £4426.82
Stakes : £132.80

I'll update with prices closer to the off.

3.30 Nav - Duroob - Matched at 27
3.30 Kemp - Offemont - Matched at 2.0
3.55 Kelso - Rosie Redmond - Matched at 10.0
4.35 Kemp - Ballyshan - Matched at 10.5

3rd March 2007, 17:54

3.30 Nav - Duroob - Matched at 27 :(
3.30 Kemp - Offemont - Matched at 2.0 :(
3.55 Kelso - Rosie Redmond - Matched at 10.0 :(
4.35 Kemp - Ballyshan - Matched at 10.5 :)

Profit: £863.20

A nice priced winner sees the bank top the 5K mark :)

Stats.
No. Bets: 93
Winners: 18
Strike Rate: 19.35%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £5290.02

Next Stake: £158.70

Vic

3rd March 2007, 18:19

Great going Wayne - can you sprinkle a bit of magic dust around:)

3rd March 2007, 18:39

Thanks Vic. I consider myself a Flat man, so I'm very pleased with this indeed. Normally, I find it much easier to make a few €€€ when the flat starts. I think it's the first time that I've managed to turn a decent profit on NH.

Vic

3rd March 2007, 19:05

I'm normally better on the NH Wayne - but now I'm just crap at both:D

GreenHorn

3rd March 2007, 19:26

4.35 Kemp - Ballyshan - Matched at 10.5 :)

Me of little faith - Only took him each way... :geek

Wayno, I shall never doubt you again... :pn

Jonny2621

3rd March 2007, 22:38

Well done Wayne, got 11.5 :happyboun

Merlin

4th March 2007, 00:18

Get the beer in, again.......very well done, Sir....

4th March 2007, 16:00

I know one or two people follow this so apologies for posting so late.

Bank: £5290.02
Stake: £158.70

Just one for today:

4.50 Bang - Our Jasper - Matched at 3.7

5th March 2007, 12:48

Bank: £5131.32
Stake: £153.94

I've set auto-betfair to place the bet close to the off.

4.00 Ling - Quantum Leap

6th March 2007, 13:40

Bank: £4977.38
Stakes: £149.32

2.10 Sth - Cerebus - Matched at 16.5
3.40 Sth - Dichoh - Matched at 3.5

paul183195

6th March 2007, 15:22

recently joined this site & just goin thru your "fun" bets . full respect to you sir most impressive

6th March 2007, 17:04

Cheers Paul.

One winner, one loser today.

2.10 Sth - Cerebus - Matched at 16.5 - 3rd
3.40 Sth - Dichoh - Matched at 3.5 - Won :)

Today's Profit: £223.98

Stats.
No. Bets: 97
Winners: 19
Strike Rate: 19.59%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £5290.02
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £5201.36
Next Stake: £156.04

8th March 2007, 12:11

Bank: £5201.36
Stake: £156.04

4.25 Winc - Petitjean - Matched at 2.98

8th March 2007, 17:38

4.25 Winc - Petitjean - Matched at 2.98:)

Today's profit: £308.96

Stats.
No. Bets: 98
Winners: 20
Strike Rate: 20.41%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £5510.32
Next Stake: £165.31

Jonny2621

8th March 2007, 17:39

Kerching :D

8th March 2007, 17:55

:)

I said "Whaaa?" (in my best Moe Sizlack voice) when I seen how little weight Petitjean was carrying (11st 6lbs) after some fine performances. The topweight was a hefty 12st in this.

John

8th March 2007, 17:57

Little John wins today and both Johnny's are happy bunnies. Kerching! :D

samantha1303

8th March 2007, 18:04

Well done Wayne

paul183195

8th March 2007, 21:52

wb - top man

9th March 2007, 14:15

Current Bank: £5510.32
Stake: £165.31

3.00 Ayr - Skenfrith - Matched at 7.8

10th March 2007, 00:17

Bank: £5345.01
Stakes: £160.35

I'll update this post with prices closer to the off.

2.35 San - Merchants Friend - Matched at 8.6
3.55 Ayr - Snowy - Matched at 6.4
4.30 Ayr - Clemax - Matched at 4.2
4.45 Chep - Nice Try - Matched at 3.15
5.00 Ayr - Delray Beach - Matched at 2.8

buddhabee

10th March 2007, 18:15

Fantastic Wayne.

Sheer bloody poetry.

:clp

10th March 2007, 18:18

Cheers :)

2.35 San - Merchants Friend - Matched at 8.6:(
3.55 Ayr - Snowy - Matched at 6.4:)
4.30 Ayr - Clemax - Matched at 4.2:)
4.45 Chep - Nice Try - Matched at 3.15:)
5.00 Ayr - Delray Beach - Matched at 2.8:)

Today's Profit: £1852.04

Stats.
No. Bets: 104
Winners: 24
Strike Rate: 23.08%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £7362.36
Next Stake: £220.87

silax

10th March 2007, 18:56

very good wayne

bigcumba

10th March 2007, 19:01

Nothing short of amazing Wayne!

paul183195

10th March 2007, 19:02

magnificent

BULL1DOG

10th March 2007, 19:09

Backed these today with some free money that betfair gave me so thankyou very very much.

Proper job,

Sacked the boss yet?

scaaty

10th March 2007, 19:50

:yikes: Been away in Glasgow since yesterday, just got back and found I'd missed these ! ;fire :cryer :cryer :cryer

Ah well, never mind - the way they're going there'll be plenty more winners to look forward to soon ! :happyboun

Brilliant tipping Wayne, very well done once again ! :thumbs

John

10th March 2007, 20:55

Wayne. One word. Legendary.

:D :D :D

vegyjones

10th March 2007, 20:57

Can i neg rep him for showing off ? :D

Jonny2621

10th March 2007, 21:51

I think a Hall Of Fame thread is needed for this tipping performance !

presto

11th March 2007, 01:43

utter cack, i mean did you even once consider the 'table off odd's' to pick these selections?
my magic pin could make better picks than these.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..................... well somebody has to keep his head small enough to fit through doors :)
top tipping BTW. :wink

danbo1000

11th March 2007, 04:09

I'm still neg repping him:)

Merlin

11th March 2007, 04:43

Brill...

Merlin

11th March 2007, 04:47

The carniage continues. No winners.

Loss: £66.51

[/I]

:laugh

Merlin

11th March 2007, 04:48

Oh...that was post 20

11th March 2007, 14:42

Ha Ha, thanks a lot lads. Let's hope it continues for the rest of the NH season. It's rare that one can follow up 2 days in a row, so cue a few losers today!!

Current Bank: £7362.36
Stakes: £220.87

2.10 War - Decree Nisi - Matched at 44
4.10 War - Herecomestanley - Matched at 7.6
4.00 Naas - Sonnyandjoe - autobetfair set to take best price before the off

11th March 2007, 23:17

No winners today.

Bank: £6699.75
Next Stake: £200.01

It seems that there are a number of people following this, so now is a good time to restate the rules in case people are simply lumping on:

Please use a bank that you are prepared to lose. Nothing is certain in this game, and I'm sure this will hit a big losing run at some stage and plenty of dosh will go down the drain.
The strike rate is just over 20%, so the ideal staking plan would be to use 2% of the bank as the backers stake. I'm taking some risks in the hope of a higher return by using 3%. So far it has worked, but if you want to play it safe, stick to to 2%.
Some of the selections have been highly priced, so it's pretty essential that the exchanges are used to place the bets, as the best value on long shots are found there.

I'm considering a more conservative staking plan after the Cheltenham festival ends - NH racing becomes less competitive from mid-march onwards, and I'm unsure if this will effect the results. When the flat season comes in, I'll be starting a separate thread for that code, as I'm not certain it will work as well as the NH has.

Wayne.

13th March 2007, 11:55

Bank: £6699.75
Stakes: £200.01

4.25 Sth - Jackie Kieley - Matched at 5.8
5.40 Sth - Sohraab - Matched at 2.92

13th March 2007, 13:32

Sorry, did not spot this earlier. Another selection for today:

5.20 Chel - Madroos - Matched at 16.0

13th March 2007, 21:30

4.25 Sth - Jackie Kieley - Matched at 5.8:(
5.40 Sth - Sohraab - Matched at 2.92:)
5.20 Chel - Madroos - Matched at 16.0:(

A small loss of £16.00

Stats.
No. Bets: 110
Winners: 25
Strike Rate: 22.73%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £7362.36
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £6683.75
Next Stake: £200.51

14th March 2007, 12:19

Bank: £6683.75
Stakes: £200.51

3.00 Hunt - Fluff 'n' Puff - Matched at 7.2
4.40 Chel - Parsons Legacy - Matched 18.5

bigcumba

14th March 2007, 20:41

Jeez Wayne that was so so close to a bumper payout again - Parsons Legacy beaten 3/4 a length, and the other one 3rd.

14th March 2007, 23:42

Jeez Wayne that was so so close to a bumper payout again - Parsons Legacy beaten 3/4 a length, and the other one 3rd.

I know! I do this on the exchanges but I had some fun e/w bets in the bookies too which paid some decent money.

I nearly hit the jackpot again. :ermmm Ah well, hopefully I can get one or two more big ones before the NH season ends.

GreenHorn

15th March 2007, 11:11

That was about as close to getting it right in a big way without actually getting there... If that race was 15yards further we'd all be quids in today...

Good spot Wayne...

15th March 2007, 13:00

Bank: £6282.73
Stakes: £188.43

There are 2 selections at 4.00 - Both get backed with the full stake.

4.00 Chel - Opera Mundi - Matched at 5.9
4.00 Chel - Idole First - Matched at 23
4.55 Hex - Westmorland - Matched at 14
5.30 Hex - Mister Magnum - Matched at 7.4

scaaty

15th March 2007, 17:10

Ah well, hopefully I can get one or two more big ones before the NH season ends.

Woohooooo !!! Got Idole First win and place, cheers Wayne, brilliant tipping again ! :) :) :)

MattR

15th March 2007, 17:11

4.00 Chel - Idole First - Matched at 23

What can you say! :icon_win: Great stuff yet again Wayne :D

Mattw07

15th March 2007, 17:12

Brilliant once again WB!!!

paul183195

15th March 2007, 17:16

well done wb . truly awesome

vegyjones

15th March 2007, 17:19

is that past the 10000 mark now wayne ?

Jonny2621

15th March 2007, 17:25

If the system would allow me to give u more rep I would mate, top bombing, got 23 on that baby !!:wiggle: :wiggle: :wiggle: :wiggle:

John

15th March 2007, 18:40

23 too, thanks Wayne, LEGEND! :wiggle:

15th March 2007, 19:21

Thanks a lot lads and lassie!

A cracking day today and I'm glad I took the early price.

Today's profit: £3580.17

Stats.
No. Bets: 116
Winners: 27
Strike Rate: 23.28%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: Current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £10,263.92

Next Stake: £307.92

16th March 2007, 12:13

3 for today:

Current Bank: £10,263.92
Stakes: £307.92

2.50 Fake - Real Chief - Matched at 6.0
3.30 Fake - Herecomestanley - Matched at 3.6
4.40 Chel - Bambi de L'orme - Matched at 38.0

17th March 2007, 13:59

Bank: £9313.16
Stake: £279.39

2.25 Newc - Camden Bella - Matched at 4.8
4.30 Wex - Knock Avora - Mached at 27
4.50 Uttox - Alfadora - Matched at 4.7

18th March 2007, 13:22

Bank: £8474.99
Stakes: £254.25

3.40 Carl - San Piere - matched at 16
4.20 Lim - Rockspring Hero - matched at 36.0
4.30 Font - Strolling Vagabond - matched at 4.3
5.30 Font - Just Muckin' around - matched at 5.0

18th March 2007, 20:56

A small profit made today of £76.28

Stats.
No. Bets: 126
Winners: 28
Strike Rate: 22.22%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £10,263.92
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £8551.27

Next Stake: £256.54

John

19th March 2007, 00:21

Nice one! I lost £1.30 today due to the crappy price I got on SV. Not to worry though. :)

19th March 2007, 00:49

Thank's John. I thought it was going to be another good one, but Just Muckin' Around could not hold on and came 2nd. Ah well, there's always another day.

19th March 2007, 13:48

Bank: £8551.27
Stakes: £256.54

In the 4.10 at MkR, there are 2 selections. Both get backed with the full stake.

3.05 Gow - Scalini's - matched at 13.5
4.00 Winc - Petit Lord - matched at 5.3
4.05 Gow - In the high grass - matched at 5
4.10 Mkr - Sound of Cheers - matched at 13.5
4.10 Mkr - Iloveturtle - matched at 9.6

20th March 2007, 13:44

Exactly breakeven yesterday.

Bank: £8551.27
Stakes: £256.54

3.40 War - Jupon Vert - matched at 8.0
3.50 Exe - Nagam - matched at 9.6
4.10 War - Ceoperk - matched at 4.3
4.30 Sth - Hamaasy - matched at 7.0
5.00 Sth - Kew the Music - matched at 4.0

Jonny2621

20th March 2007, 17:57

Nice winner there matey and Kew the Music is a system bet of mine so fingers crossed all round !

20th March 2007, 18:07

Thanks Jonny. Kew the music was disappointing but a good day overall.

Today's profit: £1180.08

Stats.
No. Bets: 136
Winners: 30
Strike Rate: 22.06%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £10,263.92
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £9731.35

Next Stake: £291.94

paul183195

20th March 2007, 21:30

good tippin wayne

andyp

20th March 2007, 21:39

Mate, not been on for a while, so just catchin up on everyones threads... this is looking awesome! Wish i had got involved earlier! Good tipping.. rep well deserved!

21st March 2007, 13:12

Thanks lads.

Bank: £9731.35
Stakes: £291.94

2.40 Chep - Travello - matched at 3.75
3.25 Ling - Gunship - matched at 3.05
3.45 Chep - Iris's Prince - matched at 5.8
4.20 Chep - Purple Patch - matched at 15.5
4.30 Ling - Aqua Pura - - matched at 9.8
5.40 Kemp - Prince Charlemange -- matched at 10

21st March 2007, 16:31

I was looking at the wrong list when typing the prices I got matched at. Fixed it now.

21st March 2007, 18:51

2.40 Chep - Travello - matched at 3.75 Won :)
3.25 Ling - Gunship - matched at 3.05 PU
3.45 Chep - Iris's Prince - matched at 5.8 2nd
4.20 Chep - Purple Patch - matched at 15.5 2nd
4.30 Ling - Aqua Pura - - matched at 9.8 4th
5.40 Kemp - Prince Charlemange -- matched at 10 nowhere

A frustrating day with one winner and 2 near misses.

Today's loss: £656.86

Stats.
No. Bets: 142
Winners: 31
Strike Rate: 21.83%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £10,263.92
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £9074.49

Next Stake: £272.23

John

21st March 2007, 20:58

Can't win 'em all mate. :) And you're doing a fantastic job.

21st March 2007, 22:29

Thursday.

There are actually 2 in the one race, but both get backed with the full stake. I'll update the prices afterwards.

Bank: £9074.49
Stakes: £272.23

2.10 Sth - Witchry - matched at 12.0
2.10 Sth - Stoneacre Boy - matched at 6.0

22nd March 2007, 17:57

No winners.

Bank: £8530.03
Next stake: £255.90

23rd March 2007, 13:22

4.15 Ling - Woodygo - matched at 9.4
5.20 Ling - Hawk Arrow - matched at 12.0

24th March 2007, 03:27

No winners again :(

Bank: £8018.23
Stakes: £240.54

2.55 Newb - More Likely - matched at 9.2
4.10 Kemp - Majestic Cheer - matched at 6.2
4.20 Ling - Kings Quay - matched at 7.0
4.25 - Bang - Allistathebarrista - 10.0
4.55 - Bang - Nice Try - matched at 5.0
5.00 - Navan - Another Nation - matched at 7.8
5.20 - Ling - Quaidu Roi - matched at 7.0

24th March 2007, 18:42

The poor run continues with only one winner today. I'm going to have a look over the stats, as I don't think the AW bets are working.

Today's loss: £481.08

Stats.
No. Bets: 153
Winners: 31
Strike Rate: 20.92%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £10,263.92
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £7537.15

Next Stake: £226.11

scaaty

24th March 2007, 23:55

The poor run continues with only one winner today. I'm going to have a look over the stats, as I don't think the AW bets are working.

Looking back at the beginning of this thread, you had I think 25 bets with just two odds-on winners and the bank had almost halved, then it turned around big style - with a 33/1 winner on the AW ! Obviously you'll know better than I do, I don't know how far back your stats go, but a 2nd and two 3rds on the AW today looks pretty good to me ... as John said earlier you can't win 'em all and you're still well in profit. :)

25th March 2007, 00:08

Looking back at the beginning of this thread, you had I think 25 bets with just two odds-on winners and the bank had almost halved, then it turned around big style - with a 33/1 winner on the AW ! Obviously you'll know better than I do, I don't know how far back your stats go, but a 2nd and two 3rds on the AW today looks pretty good to me ... as John said earlier you can't win 'em all and you're still well in profit. :)

Thanks Scaaty. Sometimes you can get caught up in the wins, and it makes you take the losses even harder. I have very detailed records, so I'll do a thorough check.

25th March 2007, 01:17

I've had a deep look into this, and while I have had a couple of wins on the AW, it shows a loss overall over the past few hundred bets. Therefore, this thread will remain NH only (I'll be setting up a new bank for the upcoming flat season). Interestingly, chases show a far higher profit than any other type of race, so I may concentrate on them more.

John

25th March 2007, 01:23

Yep, well said Scaaty. :)

Also Wayne, it looks like you might have took more of a battering than others on these today because of your price on NICE TRY - the horse was floating around 6.0-6.4 just before the off... if you'd been luckier to have got on closer to the off, I reckon you'd have almost broken even. I got 6.2 on it, and lost only £4.44 today, which was less than today's calculated BB. With a higher price it would have been a break even day almost. Anyway mate, I trust your judgement so will continue to follow these as I am doing. :)

25th March 2007, 01:55

No bets for Sunday.

26th March 2007, 11:04

Bank: £7537.15
Stakes: £226.11

4.00 Strat - Englishtown - matched at 5.0
4.30 Strat - Iloveturtle - matched at 8.0

GreenHorn

26th March 2007, 13:02

Bank: £7537.15
Stakes: £226.11

4.00 Strat - Englishtown - matched at 5.0
4.30 Strat - Iloveturtle - matched at 8.0

Are these two non-runners? Can't seem to see em on betfair?

GreenHorn

26th March 2007, 13:06

Sorry, just to clarify: These are in the 3.00 and 3.30 respectively, not the 4.00 and 4.30...

Get your act together Wayne... :happyboun

26th March 2007, 13:09

Get your act together Wayne... :happyboun

Me???

Change your clocks people!!

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=426902&r_date=2007-3-26

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?r_date=2007-3-26&race_id=426903&card_choice=card&data=postdata

susanwells

26th March 2007, 13:19

Change your clocks people!!

:laugh

mathare

26th March 2007, 13:22

Sporting Life has them in the 4.00 and 4.30 respectively.

How are people finding them in the wrong cards? :doh

MattR

26th March 2007, 13:31

Doo doo doo doo :D

paul183195

26th March 2007, 13:35

and i thort it was just me who got the times mixed up:wiggle:

26th March 2007, 13:49

What cards are people using that is causing these mix ups?

GreenHorn

26th March 2007, 14:14

:wiggle:

My clock's fine - I just logged onto betfair and didn't see em in the 4.00 and 4.30 so checked the other races and they were in the 3.00 and 3.30??

The clock on my comp is definitely correct - is it something to do with the fact that they change their clocks at different times stateside? (think they do anyhoo!). Betfair American run, no?

mathare

26th March 2007, 14:17

It's all correct in Betfair too here

scaaty

26th March 2007, 14:24

You need to have the time set as UK Time in your Betfair profile ( My Account/My Profile/Set Preferred Tiime Zone) - if it's set to GMT it'll be an hour out now.

Mavrick

26th March 2007, 14:46

The clock on my comp is definitely correct - is it something to do with the fact that they change their clocks at different times stateside? (think they do anyhoo!). Betfair American run, no?

I think America changed their clocks on the 11th of March. GMT won't change, but the UK will now be on GMT+1. +2 Where I'm at.

GreenHorn

26th March 2007, 17:54

Ah, thanks for that.... Sorry Wayne :wink

27th March 2007, 12:21

The poor run coninues with another frustrating day. A 2nd and a 4th yesterday.

Bank: £7084.93
Next Stake: £212.58

No bets today.

28th March 2007, 12:56

3 for today.

Bank: £7084.93
Stakes: £212.58

2.30 Towc - Hardy Buck - matched at 7.4
3.05 Towc - Hurlers Cross - matched at 4.4
3.35 Towc - Lorient Express - matched at 3.2

28th March 2007, 20:05

The poor run continues. There has only been 1 winner in the past 20 selections, which has given the bank a big bruising since its 10 grand heyday. Still it shows a nice profit overall. It is very disheartening to have so many losers on the trot, but It happened before in January, and the bank recovered from it's all time low of over £600. Hopefully things can pick up again.

Bank: £6447.19
Next stake: £193.42

Littlegaz

28th March 2007, 20:17

Hmm. I might have to neg rep you soon :wink :D

paul183195

28th March 2007, 21:19

:irish: :irish: :irish:

keep the faith brother

bigmazey

29th March 2007, 00:25

Maybe i have jinked it as i started to follow it when the losing run started.

Everything i touch these days turns to Mould.:helper

John

29th March 2007, 00:41

Keep the faith dude. Sticking this out with you, hoping for a turnaround soon! Don't care how long it takes. :D

Jonny2621

29th March 2007, 08:58

Im only small stakes on these but still well ahead Wayne, losing runs are usually followed by nice winning ones and at some of the odds you go for that can be very pleasing :)

29th March 2007, 13:26

Thanks for the support lads. I find that method betting (using your own judgement and not a system) can be harder psychologically as you start to doubt yourself when things go bad. With systems, you have a fair idea of what to expect when it comes to losing runs, how much the bank should drop/rise etc, but when you are using your own judgement, you don't have that comfort of letting the stats do their thing. I thought about excluding different types of races/bets, but this may have been a knee jerk reaction to the bad run, so I've decided to keep going the way I was before, win or lose. In reality, I've withdrawn the original starting bank out of my account, plus some money for a flight to America, so I have myself covered in real life.

Anyway, the show must go on! :)

2.20 … Ling … Velvet Valley matched at 5.0
3.10 … Here … Major Blade … matched at 5.9
5.20 … Ling … Hawk Arrow … matched at 4.6
5.55 … Thur … Best World … matched at 7.2

29th March 2007, 17:34

Typical. I forgot to add one selection, and of course, it won. Delighful Cliche at 5.6. Apologies to anyone following this for the error. I wont include it in the overall results here.

30th March 2007, 13:32

Bank: £6311.25
Stakes: £189.34

4.05 - Asc - Rakalackey - matched at 4.0
4.40 - Asc - Stern - matched at 5.0

Vic

30th March 2007, 14:11

Just seen you've been beating yourself up over only a 500% increase in bank over 3 months - yeah, crap results Wayne:D

Always hard to lose ground you've covered, to be honest Wayne that would be a pretty impressive result for a years efforts - so I don't think you've too much to worry about. Just the same, i hope you're soon racking up the £'s again:)

30th March 2007, 14:14

Thanks Vic, as shown by your file that you posted a while ago, a drop in the bank of 50% or more can be expected on bets, even with a high SR, one must stick with the program though!

30th March 2007, 16:56

We have a winner :yikes: :)

Todays Profit: €568.02

Stats.
No. Bets: 164
Winners: 32
Strike Rate: 19.51%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: £10,263.92
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £6879.27

Next Stake: £268.38

GreenHorn

30th March 2007, 20:09

Piece of :censored: this tipping lark, innit Wayne :REDanceda

31st March 2007, 01:44

Saturday, 31st March

Current Bank: £6879.27

Stakes: £268.38

There are 2 selections in the 4.40 at Kempton, both get backed with the full stake.

4.40 Kemp - Councellor - matched at 16.0
4.40 Kemp - Lopinot - matched at 3.0
5.50 Kemp - Cavallini - matched at 25.0

John

31st March 2007, 02:01

Are you sure this is all the selections Wayne? :D Have changed the other thread subject as requested.

31st March 2007, 02:10

Are you sure this is all the selections Wayne? :D Have changed the other thread subject as requested.

:) Going to keep this going as before (NH and AW) and have started a new thread for the flat (turf) season coming up. Have no idea what the flat turf will hold to be honest.

bigmazey

31st March 2007, 18:10

We have a another winner :yikes: :) Well Done .

Super tipping I got Councellor @ 17.0

I don't know how you do it but keep up the great work.

Are you putting these bets on for real amounts stated?

scaaty

31st March 2007, 18:26

I got the 16 too - a great result and good to see the turnaround happening ! :spinning

31st March 2007, 18:52

Thanks a lot. After a poor run, I'm glad to say we have lift off again!:winer

Are you putting these bets on for real amounts stated?

In reality, I started off with a €400 starting bank. It hit €4000 a while back, then declined to €3000, at which point I withdrew €1000 (€400 to cover the original bank, and €600 to pay for a flight to America). I'm glad to say that this bank is doing nicely once again.

Sorry for all the moaning for the past couple of weeks :laugh I'm glad to report that the bank has hit a new all time high.

Todays Profit: £3488.94

Stats.
No. Bets: 167
Winners: 33
Strike Rate: 19.76%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: Current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

Current Bank: £10,368.21

Next Stake: £311.05

mathare

31st March 2007, 20:21

I took 16/1 early doors so was very pleased to see it returned at an SP of 11/1. I was almost as pleased about that as I was about the fact it won :laugh

I took an SP hammering 25/1 about Cavallini too, returned at 14/1. OK, it didn't win but it shows there are some great prices to be had and makes me woner why I used to bother with SP

Jonny2621

31st March 2007, 23:54

Come on Wayne when are you going to accept this just isn't working ??? :D

Nice one matey, back on track :wink

MattR

1st April 2007, 10:12

Nice one Wayne :)

1st April 2007, 13:01

Thanks again everyone. I'll have a look later, but interestingly, it appears that Saturday is the most profitable day for this. I know one day has to be the most profitable, so I'm not sure if this is coincidence, or the fact that the racing is generally better quality.

Anyway, just one for today:

2.50 New.Abb - Saucy Night - matched at 10.5

2nd April 2007, 11:16

Nothing standing out today, so no bets.

3rd April 2007, 12:14

Bank: £10,057.16
Stake: £301.71

3.05 Weth - My Lady Link - matched at 3.5
3.40 Weth - Dumandic - matched at 5.0

4th April 2007, 14:01

Yesterday's profit: £452.57

Bank: £10,509.73

Stats.
No. Bets: 170
Winners: 34
Strike Rate: 20%
Starting Bank: £1,000.00
Bank all-time high: Current
Bank all-time low: £609.37

A winner yesterday sees the bank hit another all time high, and it's time for me to start thinking about protecting the profit. Up until this point, I had used 3% of the bank as the stake, in the hope of building profit. With a strike rate of 20%, this was slightly risky but served its purpose, and the bank built very nicely indeed.

From today, the stake will now be a safer 2% of the bank. The bank is very high, so even though I'm dropping by 1%, the stakes are still big in monetary terms (over £200 per bet as the bank stands).

If the bank eventually hits 20K, I'll reduce to 1% which will protect the bank, and endure losing runs, yet it would still be £200+ per bet, so still has the potential to make some nice bread.

I know that this thread has a few followers, so depending on how high your bank is, and when you started, it may be time to adjust. If you are happy with 3% and taking a slight risk while bank building, then leave it be.

---------------------------

Today's stakes: £210.19 - both selection are in the same race, but both get backed with the full stake.

3.30 Ling - Turners Touch - matched at 4.2
3.30 Ling - Red Birr - matched at 8.6

4th April 2007, 15:55

:headbange Any prizes for 2nd and 3rd place?

silax

5th April 2007, 00:00