NBA / NFL - value bets [Archive] - Win2Win UK Horse Racing Forum. Free Tips. Staking Advice.

glynners

15th January 2007, 14:05

Both Bears and the Saints have a habit of making big mistakes so it should be a good game either way

But the Bears really should have had that game sewn up alot earlier than they did last night, Seahawks wasted that interception.....they would have been punished by a better team.....i.e the Saints :wink

And as for Saturday, the sign of a good team is winning when they play badly :)

Defo looking forward to the weekend

presto

15th January 2007, 18:07

12 hours of basketball tonight on sky :yikes: starting at 6.

milwakee @ charlotte
sacramento @ new york
utah @ washington
boston @ atlanta
san antonio @ chigago
toronto @ philladelphia
indiana @ new jersey
minnesota @ detroit
la clippers @ golden state

milwakee the 3.4% stand out bet @ 3.2. though the odd's have shortened now to 3 - but still by far the bet of the day.not many other stand out value bet's, though 1.5% going on chicago.

presto

15th January 2007, 21:37

milwakee @ charlotte
sacramento @ new york
utah @ washington

great start to the night,
value of the day bucks @ 3.2 win by 8
new york in a nail biter - arenas makes 51 points, and bags a 3 pointer on the buzzer for a 3 point win for the wizards.
another nail biter at new york, a dodgy call with sacramento in possession trailing by 1 point and in possession with 12 seconds left, gives new york a cople of free throws for the victory.

presto

15th January 2007, 21:55

later games:

pheonix @ memphis
miami @ la lakers

the system dosn't seem to like betting on the pheonix suns ;fire , and miami heat look poor value IMO against the lakers (shaq still out for the heat), but a system's a system :rolleyes:

presto

15th January 2007, 23:57

detroit goes to OT ;fire

presto

16th January 2007, 00:17

FFS this is :censored: rediculous 6 bet's go into overtime 6 lose - and 5/6 were odd's on fav's ;fire

presto

16th January 2007, 14:19

FFS this is :censored: rediculous 6 bet's go into overtime 6 lose - and 5/6 were odd's on fav's ;fire

make that 7/7 - LA win in overtime :censored: ::swear

presto

16th January 2007, 17:38

orlando @ new orleans
houston @ dallas
cleaveland @ seattle

presto

17th January 2007, 04:50

thaught it was going to be another :censored: ing OT loss when new orleans chucked away a 8 point lead in the 4th including 4Xfree throws given away in 1.4 seconds (with 6 seconds of the game left) - then go and miss 2 shots down the other end.

OT was in our favour though as it took orlando 4.53 to get on the board :laugh (OT is 5 mins).

presto

18th January 2007, 01:13

new jersey @ charlotte
new york @ washington
sacramento @ toronto
utah @ detroit
atlanta @ minnesota
chicago @ milwakee
philadelphia @ memphis
pheonix @ houston
la lakers @ san antonio
cleaveland @ portland

new jersey, atlanta, milwakee - the stand out value bets. a hefty 5.6% bet going on atlanta @ 5.8

presto

18th January 2007, 03:40

going good so far - first 2 bets are winners, and the biggie bet of the night atlanta @ 5.8 are up by 20 points in the 3rd and available to lay off @ 1.07 (which i will happily do - for a small cost)

not sure if the pheonix vs houston game was a good thing or a bad thing. pheonix are a great team and the system keeps favouring the opposition (and bigger than i would like) - a sort of back man utd / chelsea's opposition at old trafford / stanford bridge - :splapme
- again today 2.2% on houston to beat pheonix @ 2.8 (very skinny). now after i backed them, news came out that there star player was out injured, so the odd's 'houston' rocketed :D out to 5.5 :ermmm however at 5.5 the system would tell me to stake an insane £120 on the rockets :yikes:
so i counted myself lucky (would rather lose £22 than £120 - on a dumb pick :D ) - then houston start well and go evens for big cash :splapme (no question of greening up for £250+) ;fire
ah well ship happens.

presto

19th January 2007, 00:13

la lakers @ dallas
indiana @ miami

only very small bets as the odd's are pretty much spot on

presto

20th January 2007, 00:30

miami @ philly
utah @ toronto
washington @ orlando
charlotte @ atlanta
new jersey @ new york
sacramento @ boston
detroit @ minnesota
new orleans @ san antonio
portland @ pheonix
cleaveland @ denver
milwakee @ seattle

new orleans ;fire , miami and cleavland - main value bets

presto

20th January 2007, 18:33

NFL

new england @ indianapolis
new orleans @ chicago

new england the big value bet.

presto

20th January 2007, 23:48

atlanta @ charlotte
new york @ indiana
sacramento @ detroit
boston @ washington
la lakers @ new orleans
orlando @ new jersey
denver @ houston
utah @ chicago
cleaveland @ golden state

a rather big bet on new orleans, indiana the other stand out bet.

presto

21st January 2007, 14:33

:censored: ::swear ;fire :censored: ::swear ;fire :censored: ::swear ;fire

boston @ 7.8 - lose in OT
houston, 1.4 favs, spunk away a 8 point lead with just over a minuite of the game left 1.01 gubbed - in OT
golden state - cruising it, 12 points up in the 4th, guess what - they throw it away and lose in OT

i make that 10/11 bets that go into overtime lose, which is statistically extreamely rare.

presto

21st January 2007, 14:58

starting bank £1,000
profit £445.47
current bank £1,445
adverage stake £16
adverage odd's 3.30
selections 95
wins 43
losses 52
liability £1,503
SR 45.26%
POI 29.65%
% increase 44.55%

still going well though despite the dam overtime losses :)

presto

21st January 2007, 18:59

dallas @ miami

big value on miami

presto

21st January 2007, 20:16

san antonio @ philadelphia
minnesota @ pheonix
milwaukee @ portland

presto

22nd January 2007, 23:05

charlotte @ toronto
chigago @ indiana
orlando @ cleaveland
new york @ miami
san antonio @ boston
memphis @ denver
minnesota @ utah
new jersey @ sacramento
golden state @ la lakers

big bets on charlotte and miami with an insane ammount on memphis

presto

24th January 2007, 00:53

dallas @ orlando
new orleans @ philladelphia
pheonix @ washington
atlanta @ chicago
denver @ seattle
milwakee @ la clippers

crap, crap, crap.
outsiders chosen - favourites win.

presto

25th January 2007, 00:57

detroit @ charlotte
miami @ indiana
new orleans @ toronto
philladelphia @ cleaveland
atlanta @ boston
pheonix @ new york
houston @ san antonio
memphis @ utah
milwaukee @ sacramento
minnesota @ portland
new jersey @ golden state

presto

25th January 2007, 15:50

OT wins for philly @ 8 and indiana @ 1.76 - not big bets but i was glad of an OT win, indiana went 1.07 in regulation so annoyed it went to OT. shaq and wade back for miami - which make the odd's a bit of a joke, miami should have been favs IMO.

new orleans @ toronto ;fire about 1min left new orleans with about an 8 point lead :censored: it up big style (1.04 shot) - had a pretty decent bet @ 5 aswell - so that result was a real kick to the nads.

atlanta @ boston - had a pretty big bet on atlanta, which i was confident about, as i have a very poor oppinion of boston - though when the celtics came out all guns blazing taking an 18pt 1stQ lead i was in shock. atlanta rallied back to win though.

pheonix (8.2) @ new york - the system selected NY @ poor odd's may i add, though for a sub £2 bet so i wasn't particullary bothered about this one and thaught pheonix would cruise it. NY were always in the game and only lost by 5 points.

houston @ san antonio. houston @ 4.6 didn't look too much value - and when a bet of £60 came up i wasn't happy (£17 adv stake), as i don't like to bet against the big 3 (dallas, pheonix, san antonio). however houston won - for a big boost to the bank.

memphis @ utah and minnesota @ portland - both went to OT ;fire - but won :) this must be payback for all the losing OT scores.

new jersey @ golden sate - had a pretty decent bet @ 2.9 on NJ - but a 'buzzer beater' by golden state took the game by 1 point :(

£500 profit on the night - so i can't complain :)

starting bank £1,000
profit £764.26
current bank £1,764
adverage stake £17
adverage odd's 3.50
selections 125
wins 54
losses 71
liability £2,173
SR 43.20%
POI 35.16%
% increase 76.43%

presto

26th January 2007, 00:08

dallas @ chigago 2.76
new jersey 3.5 @ la clippers

a good result in the chicago game with a decent size bet winning.
the NJ nets game - net's fell behind early, but fought back to lead by 2 - then on the 0.6 second mark the clippers hit a 3 :(

presto

27th January 2007, 00:36

atlanta @ 4.6 @ orlando
boston @ toronto
cleveland @ 2 @ philadelphia
washington @ 3 @ detroit
miami @ new york @ 2.6
memphis @ san antonio
sacramento @ new orleans @ 2
pheonix @ milwakee
portland @ houston
denver @ utah@ 1.66
charlotte @ 6.8@ la lakers
minnesota @ seattle @ 1.85

some big bets tonight

presto

27th January 2007, 13:27

£67 @ 4.6 set us up for a good start to the night on atlanta

a big bet on boston was lost when they gave up a small lead in the 4th to lose by 6

cleaveland, washington and detroit only had small bets on - but they all won,

a £40 bet on memphis at big odds was a let down against the spurs,

2nd largest bet of the night £72 won on new orleans

an insane £107 went on milwakee to beat the suns, something i wasn't happy about, and the loss took rather a big chunk away.

a reasnoble bet on portland lost to houston

smallish bets on utah and charlotte won - charlotte at big odd's.

and the night was rounded off with a big odd's on win on seattle.

starting bank £1,000
profit £1,058.54
current bank £2,059
adverage stake £20
adverage odd's 3.56
selections 139
wins 63
losses 76
liability £2,780
SR 45.32%
POI 38.07%
% increase 105.85%

fantastic result for the system - now the bank has more than doubled within 3 weeks. an amazing SR and ROI and after 139 bets it's quite a good sample, though not getting to complacent as good runs on odd's against shots can lead to inflated profits. but i am well pleased so far - long may it continue.

presto

27th January 2007, 23:14

philadelphia @ atlanta
toronto @ indiana
portland @ memphis
utah @ new orleans
miami @ chicago
sacramento @ dallas
new jersey @ denver
charlotte @ golden state
minnesota @ la clippers

portland, new jersey, utah - the stand out bets

presto

28th January 2007, 14:52

philly beat the 1.55 shots atlanta fairly convincingly, same story a utah were beaten by new orleans - both upsets, though the stakes were low.
short odd's indianna won - but the big bet of the night portlans - went to a tense 2nd OT for a win.
chicago and new jersey won - the NJ game was a pretty big stake @ 3.85, chicago short odd's on.
sacramento gave away a small lead in the 4th to lose by 2, would have been a nice win @ 8.2 aswell.
bit of a shock 'comfortable' win for minnesota over the la clippers,
abd i was mistaken when i thaught charlotte had a decent chance against golden state as they wend down by 26 points.

still, all in all a good night. making the totals now:

starting bank £1,000
profit £1,209.62
current bank £2,210
adverage stake £20
adverage odd's 3.54
selections 148
wins 68
losses 80
liability £3,000
SR 45.95%
POI 40.33%
% increase 120.96%

presto

28th January 2007, 19:55

la clippers @ seattle
new york @ milwaukee
san antonio @ la lakers
washington @ boston
indiana @ detroit

indianna, seattle - the big bets.
washington also a pretty decent bet.

the pheonix game caught me out (early kick off) - but would have been a small bet on cleaveland @ IMO an incredibly skinny sub 2/1.

yerotsluap

28th January 2007, 20:00

dont think cleveland would have won, phoenix just too good at the moment

Washington should win, Seattle have a decent chance but dont fancy Indiana at all

presto

28th January 2007, 20:16

cleaveland within 2 points at HT.

but i agree with you about the picks yerotsluap, all ther picks are odd's on apart from indianna, a bit strange considering the adverage odd's are 3.5. the system seems to favour indianna quite a bit - but i suppose i can't complain with the results.

presto

29th January 2007, 14:11

not so good last night, the 2 big bets lost and the 3 winners were short odd's.

after being behind all game indiana did draw level with detroit in the 4th - but then the words 'barn door' and 'banjo' sprung to mind, eventually losing by 8.

presto

30th January 2007, 00:34

orlando @ atlanta
pheonix @ minnesota
portland @ new orleans
sacramento @ memphis
philadelphia @ houston
charlotte @ denver
new jersey @ utah

portland and atlanta the big bets, also nice to see the suns get selected (watch them lose now)

presto

30th January 2007, 15:36

out of the big bets - portland lost but atlanta winning @ 2.68 made up for it.
pheonix :laugh :laugh :laugh 17 wins from 17 this month - the system opposed them every time - then the first time it picks them ;fire they lose.
good wins for memphis and new jersey (new jersey lookes very skinny IMO though).
the big money maker of the day went to charlotte winning @ denver - a pretty decent bet @ good odd's - 6.8
around £350 profit on the night, bringing the totals to:

starting bank £1,000 (jan 07)
profit £1,417.46
current bank £2,417
adverage stake £22
adverage odd's 3.49
selections 160
wins 75
losses 85
liability £3,501
SR 46.88%
POI 40.49%
% increase 141.75%
not bad for less than a month of bets :D

presto

31st January 2007, 00:18

boston @ indiana
detroit @ washington
golden state @ cleaveland
la lakers @ new york
milwaukee @ miami
seattle @ dallas
all reasnoble bets.

presto

31st January 2007, 14:45

bit of a dissapointing night,

not a fan of boson, but there better away from home, and the odd's were ok. the odd's halved on boston in the 1st quarter - so i traded out for green. still a loss for the system but saved myself £100.

detroit and cleaveland pretty much had it there own way leafing for possibly all the game.

milwaukee were pretty much demolished by miami, and the lakers went down in a close game with the nicks, lakers were missing star player kobe bryant and 2 other starters, i only found this out after i placed the bet (i thaught the odd's were too good),

seattle @ dallas - another 'no brainer' green out here - the odd's on seattle went from 10.5 to 5's in the 1st quarter (level points), dallas won comfortably in the end.

presto

1st February 2007, 00:52

golden state @ atlanta
milwaukee @ orlando
new york @ charlotte
washington @ toronto
detroit @ new jersey
la lakers @ boston
dallas @ memphis
philladelphia @ new orleans
seattle @ houston
sacramento an minnesota
san antonio @ utah
denver @ portland
chicago @ la clippers

milwaukee the bet of the night

presto

2nd February 2007, 00:25

cleaveland @ miami
san antonio @ pheonix

presto

2nd February 2007, 00:26

presto

2nd February 2007, 00:30

as for the superbowl

indianapolis vs chicago

come on the bears.

presto

3rd February 2007, 00:53

golden state @ philadelphia
la lakers @ indiana
charlotte @ cleaveland
la clippers @ boston
toronto @ atlanta
milwaukee @ detroit
minnesota @ new orleans
new jersey @ orlando
portland @ denver
chicago @ seattle

presto

3rd February 2007, 22:57

a bad night last night - indeed the last 4 days have been losing, and the system has taken a minor hit, however i have been pretty fortunate in the trading out aspect. note - i rarely trade out, and only in the big bets at big odd's to assure a no loss on the losing side and the rest on the selection. recently i have traded out on a few no brainer green outs. 2 perfect examples last night.

milwaukee @ detroit
had a £80 on milwaukee at 8's as detroit were heavy favourites,
so when i get to lay off £85 @ evens :yikes: midway through the 1st quarter - i snapped it up. i have been fortunate enough to lay off a few bet's like that, so the system may have been hit for £300 but :D i managed to scrape a profit.

presto

4th February 2007, 00:40

golden state @ charlotte
la lakers @ washington
new york @ orlando
indiana @ memphis
miami @ milwaukee
minnesota @ dallas
new orleans @ houston
utah @ pheonix
chicago @ portland
denver @ sacramento

presto

4th February 2007, 15:33

a good night last night, about £500 up mainly due to the £94 on new orleans to beat houston @ 5.5 :)
utah also beat pheonix, good odd's @ 7's but only a small bet, was a bit dissapointed in this one as utah did look very good value, something i don't often say about the suns opponents,
also dissapointed with the final result of the night with denver losing to sacramento, denver @ 3.3 looked fantastic value. but perhaps i should have done some more research - as i just read this:
Playing without the injured Allen Iverson and with a weary Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets lost for the 20th straight time at Arco Arena, where they have not won in more than 10 years. The losing streak is the longest in the NBA, dating to Jan. 7, 1997.

starting bank £1,000 (jan 07)
profit £1,556.96
current bank £2,557
adverage stake £26
adverage odd's 3.44
selections 201
wins 92
losses 109
liability £5,145
SR 45.77%
POI 30.26%
% increase 155.70%

MattR

4th February 2007, 15:39

Seem to be a lot of high price winners Presto or at least taking the lead to trade out on. Looks like it could be a good in running betting sport.

presto

4th February 2007, 15:57

Seem to be a lot of high price winners Presto or at least taking the lead to trade out on. Looks like it could be a good in running betting sport.

the in-running is something i would really like to do with these bets, problem is there are no live feeds, ESPN do a great job with there 'gamecasts' and update the scores every 30 seconds. however (looking at the odd's movements) there is odbviously someone out there with quicker feeds. and there may not be enough liquidity as the book is often 110%+ (more on the outsider).
but going green is something i will probably continue to do, especially during the first quarter on big odd's selections, (layed utah @ 2 in the 1stQ last night).

presto

4th February 2007, 18:07

atlanta @ new jersey
la clippers @ toronto
detroit @ cleaveland

presto

4th February 2007, 20:55

atlanta £80 @ 3.4 and toronto @ 1.69 make a good start to the night :)

atlanta let a 7 point lead slip in the 4th to go to overtime,
they were up by 3 with 3 seconds to go :wiggle:
- then NJ hit a 3 pointer :mad:
but with all of 0.8 seconds left atlanta hit back with a 2 pointer :D

presto

4th February 2007, 21:57

just had a quick look at the staking i am using :yikes: (presto plan) and compared it to some other methods, (will run some more accurate plans soon), but the results are something to think anout.

presto

4th February 2007, 22:01

comming to e-bay soon.

starting with just £1000 - make £4730 a month GUARANTEED

:laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh

Mavrick

4th February 2007, 22:32

Great results Presto. It makes me want to get back into betting on sports with just two possible outcomes.

I was wondering how you were getting on with your modified Kelly plan, or have you gone down a different route?

presto

4th February 2007, 22:53

pretty good mav.
it's the 'presto plan' on the graph. the result's may not be impressive as the other staking plans in the graph, but it looks a bit more 'steady' it also has an average bet of around £26 - so it's using roughly half the stakes of the 3% or £50 lsp plans, so it has the highest POI of all the plans. (34% POI after 204 bets).

it's still really in the 'test' phase so far, but to be honnest i don't want to fiddle with it too much just yet. or at least wait till i reach 1000 bet's (or the end of the NBA season).

i will be having a go at making up a system for the football soon, but first will get one ready for the baseball that's starting in april - theres absolutely thousands of fixures in that (which will be a good test for it) - something like 10 games a day, every day :yikes: then maybe onto the horses - that will be a massive task, and may need to be custom programmed though.

Mavrick

4th February 2007, 23:02

Yes it does look better for the ol' ticker then the fixed %. It helps to keep your confidence going as well when you don't have to deal with big dips.
I hope it keeps going for you.

presto

4th February 2007, 23:15

cheers mav,
the only real problems i have been having are the wide variations in % stake, so when the system makes a pick that is spot on with the odd's i may get (as low as) a 16p bet :laugh - and then where the odd's are way off i may get a massive % bet (had a couple over 10% - £100), - been thinking of putting a cap on the % staking - but that really defeats the object of the plan.
something i will have to keep my eye on is injuries etc...... as i have been caught out a couple of times with late injuries of star players. (which means a lot in basketball).

MattR

4th February 2007, 23:26

, but first will get one ready for the baseball that's starting in april - theres absolutely thousands of fixures in that (which will be a good test for it) - something like 10 games a day, every day :yikes: .

162 game season and 30 teams, plenty of testing there! :) Most days 12-15 games, apart from a couple of days a week when there can be perhaps 4 to 10.

How are you getting the odds on the basketball Presto? Are you using stats or what? The thing to bear in mind with the baseball is there is a different starting pitcher every game. Each startes will play about every five days roughly. Though when there's a day with no games for a team they will skip the 5th best starter and go back to number 1 again.

presto

4th February 2007, 23:39

errrrrr, well, errrrrr............... :yikes:
:laugh
4860 games :box - to be honnest i havn't really looked into it too much yet (always a last minuit sort of person), but i am expecting to be able to use the same spreadsheet for the staking etc..... as for the ratings, i will have to do a fair bit of excel crunching with the stats, though the rotation of the squad will be a massive headach, may even be unfeasable. as it's masses of info to keep track of.
but even so i reckon i may be able to do something with the overs / unders, as the data should be easier to work with.

just out of interest - hows the liquidity on betfair?
it may be a problem for me as they are early morning start times, and i only wake at the 11/12 am mark (bit of a night owl :rolleyes: ) so will probably have to get on around midnight - 3am.

MattR

4th February 2007, 23:48

Liquidity is normally fine. Markets get close to 100% on most games. Can get them on in day but by late evening usually quite well stocked. Earliest games you'll get will be about 6pm but most usually around midnight onwards. The markets are the usual match odds plus a handicap one and a run line (unders/overs). All games have all three except for the run line on the odd occasion for Chicago which can appear late or not at all (depending on how windy it is!)

The starting pitchers have a stat called ERA (earned run ave) which will probably be useful to you. It's something I'll be using with the value stuff from the football I've been trying. Have moved onto total goals market with that now as match odds was proving too time intensive. So i've been trying it on total goals (bonus of 1% comm market too) using 3 goals and either laying or backing depending on the figures produced in relation to where it's set on betfair. Looking quite good so far.

Mavrick

5th February 2007, 01:44

It seems quite suprising how smooth the graph is with the Presto plan considering the amounts that you sometimes have to stake. I think the Kelly,ASP,or something similar are probably perfectly suited to something with such a high strike as baseball, basketball tennis etc, as you won't have to cap or proportion the amounts as much. What suprises me more though is how the level stakes have outperformed your staking plan which is based on value. Maybe that's just because your average stake is far less using the Presto plan.:doh

It would be interesting to see how the graph would look with different denominators on the ASP, Presto plan and with different caps, although like you I think that capping would be completely counter productive.

The last week or so using Bet IE has giving me less of an owl routine which I had as well and more of a 9-5 which has been a nice change. I'm sure it won't be long before I switch back again.:)

presto

5th February 2007, 02:13

i really should have put up a £25 lsp graph - as thats the adverage stake as the PSP. in which the 'PSP' would be much better than the £25lsp.

if you set the 'PSP' up with a £4,000 starting bank - it would adverage £100 stakes. but produce a final profit of £7000, which is favorable to the £4730 of the £100 level stakes.

i should add that the SR of 46.57% @ average odds of 3.42 is just simply unbeliavable (not being smug) but it could be just a good run - but the 200+ bets is a good framework to work on. one would expect the odd's to be just above evens - so perhaps the big odd's (4/1 upwards) distort the average odd's a lot, especially considering a 1.01 shot is cancled out by a 2/1 shot to return the average to evens. one thing i could possibly do would be analyse the odd's range and SR so i can see where the most profitable odd's ranges are from. and also get the average winning odd's which would perhaps get a more realistic price of the odd's and not be distorted by the few big prices.

below is a graph of the PSP, which can be basically analysed, to show how the staking works.

red lines - uneventfull runs (no real big / important bets).
blue circles - winning big £ / big odd's bets.
green circles - losing big £ bets.

it's quite easy to see that the system gets it's profit's from the big bets, and indeed what it was designed for - maximise stakes on maximum value selections. the green circles of losing big £ bets have reletively little impact on the overall scheme of things,

presto

5th February 2007, 02:17

also the reletively 'no activity' in the first part would be because of no big £ winning bet's - but the line stays stable as, there is also not many losing big £ bets. - the extra activity 'bumpier' red lines later on would be because the 'normal' stakes at that point were around double or more, of when the system started off, and on the same scale look more erratic.

Mavrick

5th February 2007, 13:03

Oh yes, you said that it had a 34% POI:splapme

A SR of 46.57% @ average odds of 3.42 is pretty crazy and lets hope that a correction is not on its way. Taking a look a the odds range of the winning bets would probably be a good idea as you never know you may lose money on the shorter priced selections with the lowest stake. You could then increase the odds line slightly and this would reduce the really high % of staking.
But if it ain't broke though :)

presto

5th February 2007, 22:37

golden state @ indiana
la lakers @ atlanta
new jersey @ philadelphia
seattle @ washington
charlotte @ miami
minnesota @ houston
chicago @ utah
pheonix @ denver
new orleans @ sacramento

presto

6th February 2007, 14:13

took a hit last night (£200) - but we did just have a good run which softened the blow. some pretty decent bets last night, but i fealt pretty confident about the selections, the night started off pretty terrible though.

golden state @ indiana
la lakers @ atlanta
new jersey @ philadelphia
seattle @ washington
charlotte @ miami
minnesota @ houston
chicago @ utah
pheonix @ denver
new orleans @ sacramento

golden state @ indiana - indiana @1.43 was a £94 bet, which was pretty big for the system, and i didn't particulary think there was much value in this, but the system seems to like indiana, and golden state are pretty terrible, especially away from home.

la lakers @ atlanta - atlanta i fealt were pretty good value, were always in the game - but lost by 7.

seattle @ washington - this was one of the important bets, around £100 @ 3/1. the odd's were a little short IMO, but when seattle went 1.62 with a lead i went to lay off £100 @ 1.7 - then they just seemed to fall apart, and nothing but washington net from there onwards :mad:

charlotte @ miami - odd's were spot on in this, and for a bet i needed the odd's to move a tick on either team, miami were around the 1.2 mark so i placed the bet on charlotte as the tick movement would be more likely to occur looking at the cash available, a small 'losing' bet but with a stake with no real impact.

minnesota @ houston - thaught the system would pick minnesota here, but a £44 bet on houston was the bet, for a comfortable win.

pheonix @ denver - denver were looking good but a poor 3rdQ gave the suns the advantage. devner lose by 5. only a small bet though.

chicago @ utah - a big £144 on utah here @ 1.83 - good value IMO chicago poor away, utah great at home - also very underated. utah won to salvage something from the night.

new orleans @ sacramento - a pretty decent bet on new orleans, and the odd's were deffinate value, not to be though.

new jersey @ philadelphia - the system actually made new jersey the favs in this, but a OT loss.

presto

6th February 2007, 22:45

boston @ detroit
la clippers @ new york
houston @ memphis
orlando @ milwaukee
pheonix @ portland

presto

8th February 2007, 00:36

charlotte @ philadelphia
la clippers @ cleaveland
new jersey @ atlanta
orlando @ toronto
san antonio @ washington
seattle @ indiana
miami @ boston
golden state @ minnesota
memphis @ dallas
new orleans @ denver

presto

9th February 2007, 00:14

la lakers @ detroit
milwaukee @ new orleans
chicago @ sacramento

presto

9th February 2007, 23:05

denver @ indiana
la clippers @ philadelphia
la lakers @ toronto
portland @ charlotte
san antonio @ orlando
new jersey @ boston
miami @ cleaveland
minnesota @ memphis
houston @ dallas
atlanta @ pheonix
chicago @ golden state

presto

11th February 2007, 00:45

orlando @ new jersey
toronto @ detroit
memphis @ new orleans
charlotte @ houston
denver @ milwaukee
new york @ utah
sacramento @ seattle

oh dear :(

presto

11th February 2007, 18:34

san antonio @ miami
portland @ washington
la clippers @ indiana
la lakers @ cleaveland
boston @ minnesota
dallas @ philadelphia
chigago @ pheonix
atlanta @ golden state
seattle @ sacramento

presto

11th February 2007, 21:29

orlando @ new jersey
toronto @ detroit
memphis @ new orleans
charlotte @ houston
denver @ milwaukee
new york @ utah
sacramento @ seattle

oh dear :(

not a good night :splapme - fortunately they were all pretty low stake games, already recouped the losses with a big bet on portland @ 3.75 :)

petercide

12th February 2007, 15:02

came out pretty good on your selections last night at level stakes. Nice one :)

presto

12th February 2007, 15:26

nice one peter, a shame about boston though - make a franchise record 18 straight losses, and they have cost me a fair ammount. nearly looked like they were going to win last night.
30 seconds to go they had possession with the scores tied - but they didn't even take a shot and violated the shot clock for a turnover :mad: and memphis went and scored.

presto

12th February 2007, 15:30

broke the 200% increase barrier last night aswell :wiggle:

starting bank £1,000
profit £2,074.96
current bank £3,075
average stake £29
average odd's 3.33
selections 258
wins 118
losses 140
liability £7,438
SR 45.74%
POI 27.90%
% increase 207.50%

petercide

12th February 2007, 17:05

pretty impressive stuff, but im all out of rep Im afraid!

Bit cheeky, but any chance of posting up your staking percentages on the bets?

presto

12th February 2007, 19:02

hi peter, i don't really look at the % stake much, the spreadsheet dosn't acually have a collum for it (it's all worked out via a complicated process) (31 collums wide :D in excel ). though it dosn't often go above 5%.

just by keeping it simple (5% stakes) would have resulted in 442% increase more than double that of the 'PSP' so that would probably be easier to use. though with a 45% SR a 4.5% stake may be better than 5% - IF the SR continues, 4% may be safer.

petercide

12th February 2007, 22:13

only a 445% profit? :ooo

level stakes sounds good to me :laugh

presto

12th February 2007, 23:23

la clippers @ detroit
atlanta @ utah
golden state @ denver

not too sure about these - the system is staking a bit more than i would like, however atlanta especially do look good value, however it's been 14 years since they last won @ utah, however they are doing well on the road.

MattR

12th February 2007, 23:24

Great stuff Presto. Just think how much you can increase this by though once you learn Gingers tricks :D

presto

12th February 2007, 23:30

Great stuff Presto. Just think how much you can increase this by though once you learn Gingers tricks :D

:laugh :laugh :laugh
i will ask him next time he's around - he odbviously knows his stuff when it comes to value, while us 'mug punters' stumble onwards with ignorance.

presto

15th February 2007, 00:33

chicago @ charlotte
memphis @ indiana
new jersey @ toronto
portland @ orlando
washington @ philadelphia
milwaukee @ boston
san antonio @ detroit
denver @ minnesota
sacramento @ new orleans
cleaveland @ utah
pheonix @ seattle
atlanta @ la clippers
new york @ golden state

Mattw07

15th February 2007, 00:59

alrite presto

nice going on the selections so far

the selections youve picked tonight do u put the same stake on each? also for example the memphis and new jersey games which r both pretty high odds would you trade these out if there doing well after the 1st quarter? or do you just let them be.

Matt

presto

15th February 2007, 01:17

chicago @ charlotte ..........£22.27..... 1.82..... Away
memphis @ indiana .......... £30.58 .....5.00..... Away
new jersey @ toronto .........£2.78 .....4.70 .....Away
portland @ orlando 3.15 .........£67.85..... 3.15 .....Away
washington @ philadelphia ..........£19.63 .....2.00 .....Home
milwaukee @ boston ..........£72.88 .....3.10 .....Away
san antonio @ detroit ..........£110.62 .....2.60 .....Away
denver @ minnesota ..........£37.07 .....2.50 .....Away
sacramento @ new orleans ..........£5.42 .....1.44 .....Home
cleaveland @ utah ..........£36.97 .....2.80 .....Away
pheonix @ seattle ..........£8.08..... 2.10..... Away
atlanta @ la clippers ..........£17.06 .....2.80 .....Away
new york @ golden state .......... £5.12 .....2.38.....Away

this is how i staked tonight, (sorry about the formatting), some big differences in stake size from £110 to £2.78 - the ones with the bigger stake represent more value. though level stakes work well enough.

sometimes i will trade out, but rarely and only really when i have a big £££ on a long shot and the odd's have shortened a lot. basketball is quite a good sport to trade on (apart from the lack of live coverage), but quite often a team can go on a 10 point run and the odd's may half, before the other team go on a 10 point run etc.....
i keep that totally seperate from the system results also. another thing you may notice is the odd's shown are a bit lower than betfair, thats because i usually work with odd's a couple of ticks lower (more with the longer shots), so that i am sure the liquidity is there (i always take the best prices). so really the stats are distorted for the worse.

Mattw07

15th February 2007, 01:25

thanx for the info presto, very interesting stuff

gud look with the rest of the season

presto

15th February 2007, 01:30

cheers mat,

also memphis a perfect example right now:
5.5 to 2.26 after just 6 minuites of the game gone and a 8 point lead. :yikes:

presto

15th February 2007, 15:32

terrible set of results last night,
though bet of the night san antonio was a much needed winner. and i did trade out of a couple, milwaukee got off to a flyer against boston. but boston managet to end there 18 game losing streak :mad:
a couple of games had unfortunate twists, denver were up by 5 late in the 4th, but when i checked back - they managed to lose. cleaveland were also robbed of 3X free throws at the buzzer when no foul was called, on what was apparently a clear foul, to lose by 1.

MattR

15th February 2007, 15:42

cheers mat,

also memphis a perfect example right now:
5.5 to 2.26 after just 6 minuites of the game gone and a 8 point lead. :yikes:

Interesting that Presto. Seems a wild over reaction. I noticed that doing in running baseball last season. A team would go 1 or 2 ahead early and the odds went far too low. Sometimes it would trade below 1.10 with about 4 innings to go and a team being just 2 runs ahead.

presto

15th February 2007, 17:32

going into the mid season break now.
next game will be monday morning 1am the all star game - east vs west, should be well worth watching.

the west should be heavy favourites, but stats may be difficult to work out.

presto

19th February 2007, 01:01

all star game

EAST vs west
just a small bet

presto

21st February 2007, 00:40

minnesota @ washington
new orleans @ charlotte
orlando @ new york
denver @ san antonio
detroit @ milwaukee
atlanta @ chicago
boston @ sacramento
memphis @ seattle
utah @ portland
pheonix @ la clippers

the odd's look pretty spot on tonight with hardly any value anywhere.

presto

22nd February 2007, 00:53

cleaveland @ toronto
milwaukee @ indiana
new york @ philadelphia
san antonio @ atlanta
new orleans @ new jersey
orlando @ detroit
charlotte @ minnesota
boston @ pheonix
miami @ houston
memphis @ golden state
portland @ la lakers

presto

22nd February 2007, 17:00

starting bank £1,000 (jan 07)
profit £2,405.89
current bank £3,406
average stake £29
average odd's 3.28
selections 299
wins 130
losses 169
liability £8,682
SR 43.48%
POI 27.71%
% increase 240.59%

yerotsluap

22nd February 2007, 17:09

very impressive

Jonny2621

22nd February 2007, 17:21

Excellent results Presto, top handicapping :wink

I play regularly on the NFL, its a traders dream, but know little, sorry nothing about NBA. Have these or would these selections be profitable to level stakes or say a 2% bank ?

cheers

presto

22nd February 2007, 17:49

cheers folks.

another graph with a few more staking plans:
it looks like level stakes has a small advantage over % staking, possibly because of the good / bad runs that can lead to extreams, so the level stakes may be slightly more steady, though a low % stake may be ok. the 'PSP' is still under a bit of testing - but going well at the moment, though it is a little tricky to stake (i suppose i could put in a 'rating' system - A, B, C, D bets etc......) with different staking % based on value and win chance %. but that may be a bit off.

nba is also a great sport to trade on also, it's a shame i was a bit too late for the NFL as the handicapping for the NBA is similar to what would have been used with the NFL, but will have to wait till next season to try it out.

presto

22nd February 2007, 18:08

also - it's strange to see that the peak of the 'PSP' is now, wheras the peak of the 5% plan was quite a few bets ago, and the 5% staking has gone in serious decline.
this can be explained by the lack of value recently, during the 'bad' run the 'PSP' was picking up no 'big' bets and i was staking very little - indeed i was staking £2 on many of the bets (indicating no / very little value) but with a 5% staking plan - this was where i was placing the biggest bets. so during the bad run the 'PSP' was consolidating, staking peanuts (long uneventfull movement on the graph), but as the 5% plan dosn't stake on value it was getting hit hard.

presto

22nd February 2007, 18:11

the baseball is also sneeking up fast, i was waiting for the MLB to start in april - but according to ESPN, it's starting in march with the cactus and grapefrute league :doh . not something i am prepared for - but if i can get the stats for this i will give it a go, will be good for a 'test' before the MLB starts.

MattR

22nd February 2007, 18:27

Presto, those leagues are what's known as 'Spring Training'. It's basically like football pre season training but players on the fringes of the major league get a chance to show what they can do as well as the regular squad. I doubt it will be on betfair to bet anyway but if it is I wouldn't go anywhere near it. The amount of subs ysed in the games would make Erikkson look tame :laugh

presto

22nd February 2007, 18:36

cheers matt - one to miss then.

presto

23rd February 2007, 00:01

chicago @ cleaveland
sacramento @ washington
miami @ dallas

presto

24th February 2007, 01:21

nearly forgot:

detroit @ orlando
indiana @ toronto
philadelphia @ charlotte
houston @ atlanta
milwaukee @ new york
sacramento @ new jersey
pheonix @ minnesota
seattle @ new orleans
washington @ chicago
memphis @ portland
boston @ la lakers
utah @ denver

24th February 2007, 01:25

Shouldn't this thread be called NBA / NFL - The table of odds, chances and percentages bets.. :pk1

presto

24th February 2007, 01:42

:D
i actually use the stats to form a % chance rating for each team (easier to work that way) - but don't tell ginger :wink - i don't want him thinking that i agree with him :laugh

presto

25th February 2007, 00:36

toronto @ charlotte
seattle @ san antonio
philadelphia @ milwaukee
boston @ utah

presto

25th February 2007, 18:45

chicago @ detroit

will update the rest soon.

presto

25th February 2007, 19:29

houston @ orlando
pheonix @ atlanta
cleaveland @ miami
washington @ minnesota
la lakers @ golden state
new york @ new jersey
sacramento @ indianna

presto

25th February 2007, 20:31

chicago @ detroit

will update the rest soon.

you can catch this game on sky sports extra (well the 2nd half) ch404? - bulls looking good on a 23-3 points run. - 16 points up.

presto

25th February 2007, 21:42

getting rather pissed off now with the recent selections ;fire - chicago managed to :censored: up a 16 point lead in the 3rd, missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer, but the recent SR has dipped quite a lot, the annoying thing is that lots of the bets have been in good winning positions, then losing out late on ;fire

presto

26th February 2007, 00:13

a bit better now - the 2 biggest bets of the system won :D
cleaveland @ MIAMI £146 @ 2.54 :yikes: (miami not a good bet IMHO especially with d wade out injured).
HOUSTON @ orlando £184 @ 2,1 - cracking bet.

had £65 on WASHINGTON @ minnesota - which i thaught was pretty good odd's and had a good chance. however when star player gilbert arenas manages just 5 from 33 attemps from the field ;fire - they did get within 2 points near the end - but not to be :(

the chicago game was dissapointing the way they lost - though it was only a £7 bet.

presto

27th February 2007, 00:16

sacramento @ philadelphia
miami @ new york
denver @ memphis
toronto @ san antonio
atlanta @ dallas
boston @ houston
orlando @ chicago
la lakers @ utah
portland @ seattle
charlotte @ la clippers

presto

28th February 2007, 00:25

new orleans @ cleaveland
pheonix @ indianna
washington @ new jersey
dallas @ minnesota
golden state @ milwaukee

presto

28th February 2007, 05:08

again i am getting :censored: annoyed with the results,
couldn't beleive indianna - 18 points up halfway throuh the 3rd, then a reminder of what happened to chicago - and they went and did the same, throwing it away to eventually lose by 11 :splapme

washington the other decent bet also threw it away, when looking good :mad:

presto

1st March 2007, 00:44

an update on the staking plans, over the past 100 or so bets the SR has dipped a bit, to be honnest it was to be expected a bit, though the extended great SR from the start rather made me hope it would stay that way, i could say there have been quite a few 'unlucky' results on the big bets - but i won't (well i just did :doh ). anyhow - the dip has hit the % staking the most, as at the peak the bets were pretty substantial, so with the dip comes the big payback, and staking 5% has massive peaks and dips. the level stakes have handled the run much better, though have still taken hits. the 'PSP' i have been really pleased with though, as even through the tough period it has continued it's upward momentum.

NOTE - in the comming weeks i will be giving the spreadsheets an overhall, and including handicap and over / unders aswell as the value bets - the Hcap and o/u will work on pretty much the same principal as the 'value' ones above, rating and picking out the 'value' selection. - i will also be using ratings (A,B,C,D,E bets etc......) A - being the best value. E lesser value etc.... as a more 'user friendly' version of the 'PSP'.

presto

1st March 2007, 00:45

miami @ washington
pheonix @ philadelphia
new york @ boston
atlanta @ new orleans
utah @ memphis
golden state @ chicago
toronto @ houston
orlando @ denver
charlotte @ sacramento
seattle @ la clippers

presto

2nd March 2007, 00:34

cleaveland @ dallas
charlotte @ portland
la clippers @ seattle

not much value out there 9p to £13 bets

presto

3rd March 2007, 00:33

atlanta @ washington
memphis @ philadelphia
milwaukee @ toronto
golden state @ new york

trivial stakes here - the market seems near spot on, with minimal value to be had.

presto

3rd March 2007, 00:52

and the rest

detroit @ miami
orlando @ san antonio
utah @ minnesota
new orleans @ chicago
indiana @ pheonix
houston @ denver
sacramento @ la lakers

presto

4th March 2007, 00:35

boston @ new jersey
new york @ atlanta
toronto @ cleaveland
detroit @ memphis
san antonio @ houston
orlando @ dallas
sacramento @ portland
indianna @ la clippers

presto

4th March 2007, 22:06

minnesota @ boston
golden state @ washington
- tool late for the above 2 - you missed 1.10 and 1.01 losers - the golden state loss, was apparently due to a very bad decision.

chicago @ milwaukee
la lakers @ pheonix
new jersey @ philadelphia
utah @ new orleans
charlotte @ seattle

presto

4th March 2007, 23:37

ever get the feeling it will be one of thoes days?

first 2 bets lose after going 1.01 and 1.1.
then the 3rd bet goes 1.01 - only for the bucks to give up a 12 point lead in the 4th - and go the underdogs ;fire - had 2 free throws at the end to win it - but only hit one to send it into OT.

presto

5th March 2007, 23:19

houston @ cleaveland
milwaukee @ orlando
atlanta @ miami
golden state @ detroit
charlotte @ utah
san antonio @ la clippers

yerotsluap

6th March 2007, 17:30

good call on golden state

presto

6th March 2007, 17:58

cheers yerots,
been a tough run recently, only 2 winners from 18 (1 odds on), though fortunately they havn't been big bets, only 2 in the £50 mark - and adveraging around the £25-30 mark. so the GS win was well received - especially as it was one of the biggest recent bets £80 @ 9.6 :) - have to say i really didn't expect it either.

presto

7th March 2007, 00:58

toronto @ washington
seattle @ new york
la lakers @ minnesota
new jersey @ dallas
new orleans @ denver
indiana @ sacramento
san antonio @ portland

toronto @ washington - at 2.8 toronto would be my 'value' pick
seattle @ new york - NY may edge it slightly, but 2.4 looks good on seattle
la lakers @ minnesota - 2.1 is about right on the lakers in what looks 50/50 to me
new jersey @ dallas - dallas, especially at home look unstopable, but the system never turns down a big outsider @ 10's
new orleans @ denver -the system bet of the night, @ 3.6 NO the deffinate value against an inconsistant denver, i have carmelo anthony as 'not playing', but reports are saying douptfull, so it's all on allen iverson as the main denver man, against NO who should share the points around.
indiana @ sacramento at first i thaught the kings may be a tad short - but looking closer - the pacers are on a 5 game slide, and the kings 4 wins from 5, and a good home record.
san antonio @ portland only a small bet - but san antonio look the stand out bet for me @ 1.38

presto

7th March 2007, 04:49

;fire ;fire
2 days ago 2 1.01 shots were gubbed, now the lakers go 1.01 before :censored: ing up and letting it slip into overtime :mad:

been watching the mavs vs nets game on 5, great game and closer than you would imagine, with the lead swapping numerous times, there was also back to back 14 point runs :yikes: - though it looks like the mavs may take it with 2 mins left :(

the NO @ denver also annoying ;fire - with carmello anthony playing, despite all the info reporting him douptfull (at best), which sent the odd's fro my 3.5 to 4+.

presto

7th March 2007, 15:14

toronto @ washington - all washington - for a 20 point win
seattle @ new york seattle went into the 4th with a 7 point lead, but NY came back and missed a freethrow in the last second which would have taken it into OT.
la lakers @ minnesota - ;fire lakers looked comfortable and went 1.01, only to F##K up and go into OT, again looked the winners in OT - going 2 up and having 2 free throws to win the game late on 1.02 - but smush missed both freethrows and the timberwolves went down the other end to tie the first OT - the 2nd OT was all minnesota going 12-2. - so seperate 1.01 and 1.02 losses in the same game.
new jersey @ dallas - a cracking game, but dallas winners, comfortable late on.
new orleans @ denver - comfottable for denver, with antony playing.
indiana @ sacramento - the kings 15 up at HT, though the winning margine was only 4.
san antonio @ portland portland went into the 4th with a 9 point lead, but the spurs fought back - outscoring them by 14 in the 4th.

presto

7th March 2007, 23:41

memphis @ toronto
seattle @ philadelphia
washington @ atlanta
chicago @ miami
cleaveland @ detroit
houston @ boston
la lakers @ milwaukee
charlotte @ pheonix
indiana @ utah
denver @ golden state

seattle, washington and miami - look the bets of the night. charlotte @ 20+ also big value against the suns @ 1.04 which looks terrible value, though still look bankers.

presto

8th March 2007, 15:49

memphis @ toronto
seattle @ philadelphia
washington @ atlanta
chicago @ miami
cleaveland @ detroit
houston @ boston
la lakers @ milwaukee
charlotte @ pheonix
indiana @ utah
denver @ golden state

TORONTO - result was never in doupt, lead from start to finish.
SEATTLE - 10 down after the 1stQ - but came back to draw level in the 4th, eventually losing by 3.
WASHINGTON - opened up an early lead, but a terrible 3rd - conceding a 12 point deficit - went on to lose by 3, a bit of a shock, as the hawks were without johnson.
MIAMI - bet of the night just destroyed the bulls winning by 33
CLEAVELAND - an early lead but had to take it to OT for the win.
HOUSTON - a 31 point mauling of the celtics.
LA LAKERS - star man kobe bryant was suspended for this game - grrrrrr just a shame i didn't realise that as checking on injury news he wasn't mentioned.
CHARLOTTE - @ 20's+ the biggest odd's i have seen since starting the system, on paper a demolition job - but the bobcats stuck in gamely against a lackluster suns, even though charlotte went 11 behind in the first (i reckon the suns may have gone 1.01 here - from 1.04) they battled back and at one point took the lead, and took it to OT - but the suns won. - the bobcats had a chance to win late on aswell.
UTAH & GOLDEN STATE - good home teams, took the wins.

presto

8th March 2007, 16:00

starting bank £1,000
profit £2,800.31
current bank £3,800
average stake £31
average odd's 3.28
selections 402
wins 168
losses 234
liability £12,284
SR 41.79%
POI 22.80%
% increase 280.03%

...................................

the 'PSP' showing steady progress (black) - showing that specialist staking for the purpose is the best way to go.
the % staking plans have dropped right down to the sub £1000 level - showing a massive £5000 loss over the last 150 bets :yikes:
the level staking showing possible viability, not being hit as hard as the % staking, though a drop in £ with the small drop in SR.

but the PSP in reality was always going to be the staking plan to use, and now it's showing. the others were only really there for comparrison.

presto

9th March 2007, 00:06

chicago @ orlando
san antonio @ sacramento

presto

10th March 2007, 00:30

la lakers @ philadelphia
memphis @ atlanta
minnesota @ miami
seattle @ boston
new jersey @ houston
detroit @ denver
new orleans @ pheonix
la clippers @ golden state

presto

11th March 2007, 01:00

memphis @ charlotte
minnesota @ atlanta
new york @ washington
philadelphia @ indiana

presto

11th March 2007, 01:33

new jersey @ sanantonio
cleaveland @ milwaukee
new orleans @ utah

presto

11th March 2007, 19:54

seattle @ toronto
detroit @ la clippers
denver @ sacramento
chicago @ boston
indiana @ cleaveland
washington @ miami
orlando @ houston
dallas @ la lakers
golden state @ portland

presto

13th March 2007, 00:40

new jersey @ memphis
toronto @ milwaukee
houston @ pheonix
dallas @ golden state

presto

13th March 2007, 20:18

made a massive F-up last night,
instead of putting £22.3 on the below adverage golden state to beat the best team in the league the dallas mavericks on a red hot 17 game winning streak
.
.
.
................... i went and slapped £233 on them :yikes: :splapme :splapme :censored: :mad:
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............ however :REDanceda :REDanceda :REGamblMo :REGamblMo :REDanceda :REDanceda :REGamblMo :REGamblMo - they only went and mullered them didn't they :hoho: :hoho: :hoho: - 29 points up at the 3rd :) , now thats a fair chunk of luck, which i needed recently after some of the games that have been thrown away.
NOTE - stats will be on the intended £22.3 stake

presto

13th March 2007, 22:31

philadelphia @ atlanta
sacramento @ cleaveland
utah @ miami
indiana @ minnesota
la clippers @ san antonio
new jersey @ new orleans
boston @ chicago
portland @ denver
detroit @ seattle

presto

14th March 2007, 22:14

chicago @ philadelphia
new york @ toronto
sacramento @ charlotte
utah @ orlando
washington @ indiana
atlanta @ boston
cleaveland @ memphis
la clippers @ houston
pheonix @ dallas
detroit @ portland

Mavrick

14th March 2007, 22:37

Lucky sod:D

presto

15th March 2007, 23:41

miami @ new jersey
san antonio @ milwaukee
la lakers @ denver

presto

16th March 2007, 23:35

houston @ toronto
la clippers @ charlotte
utah @ philadelphia
new orleans @ new york
sacramento @ miami

boston @ dallas
detroit @ pheonix
minnesota @ golden state
portland @ la lakers

presto

22nd March 2007, 23:32

lets get this thread going again.

portland @ new york

la lakers @ memphis
denver @ chicago
detroit @ houston
sacramento @ pheonix

presto

23rd March 2007, 23:45

broke through the 300% increase last night :)
.........................

charlotte @ philadelphia
denver @ toronto
miami @ indiana
new jersey @ orlando
dallas @ boston
new york @ cleaveland
portland @ atlanta
detroit @ san antonio
la lakers @ new orleans
minnesota @ seattle
utah @ la clippers
washington @ golden state

presto

24th March 2007, 23:32

new jersey @ charlotte
philadelphia @ miami
memphis @ utah
washington @ la clippers

presto

25th March 2007, 17:48

dallas @ atlanta
chicago @ indiana
detroit @ milwaukee
pheonix @ sacramento
portland @ minnesota
denver @ cleaveland
houston @ new orleans
san antonio @ seattle
golden state @ la lakers

presto

27th March 2007, 00:18

atlanta @ miami
denver @ detroit
orlando @ new york
toronto @ boston
milwaukee @ houston
portland @ chicago
washington @ utah
memphis @ pheonix
san antonio @ golden state

presto

27th March 2007, 22:51

cleaveland @ indiana
dallas @ new orleans
seattle @ minnesota
memphis @ la lakers

presto

28th March 2007, 23:22

atlanta @ charlotte
miami @ toronto
philadelphia @ washington
cleaveland @ new york
indiana @ new jersey
orlando @ boston
new orleans @ san antonio
milwaukee @ dallas
minnesota @ utah
seattle @ denver
houston @ la clippers

presto

29th March 2007, 06:22

could have been a cracking nigh't results, but new orleans, milwaukee, minnesota - all gave away leads in the 4th when they were big odd's :mad:

presto

29th March 2007, 06:26

starting bank £1,000
profit £3,313.98
current bank £4,314
average stake £29
average odd's 3.28
selections 530
wins 216
losses 314
liability £15,511
SR 40.75%
POI 21.37%
% increase 331.40%

presto

29th March 2007, 23:58

detroit @ chicago
memphis @ portland
pheonix @ golden state

presto

30th March 2007, 22:25

boston @ philadelphia
milwaukee @ charlotte
toronto @ washington
indiana @ orlando
miami @ minnesota
new jersey @ detroit
utah @ san antonio
new york @ dallas
denver @ pheonix
houston @ la lakers
la clippers @ sacramento
memphis @ seattle

not much value other than utah.

presto

31st March 2007, 21:54

philadelphia @ new jersey
new york @ new orleans
la clippers @ portland

not much value in these either

presto

1st April 2007, 19:49

memphis @ golden state
dallas @ pheonix
washington @ milwaukee
charlotte @ toronto

the 2 early games were miami and atlanta - miami winning late on and atlanta level at the half - i keep getting caught out with the early games on sunday.

cleaveland @ boston
minnesota @ orlando
utah @ houston
san antonio @ indiana
denver @ seattle
sacramento @ la lakers

presto

3rd April 2007, 23:18

no games last night

detroit @ indiana
washington @ charlotte
toronto @ miami
cleaveland @ minnesota
new orleans @ milwaukee
pheonix @ memphis
seattle @ san antonio
dallas @ sacramento
denver @ la lakers

presto

4th April 2007, 23:34

charlotte @ washington
toronto @ orlando
atlanta @ new jersey
chicago @ detroit
philadelphia @ new york
boston @ milwaukee
seattle @ new orleans
golden state @ houston
sacramento @ denver
utah @ portland
la lakers @ la clippers

5th April 2007, 01:16

Haven't checked this in a while. That's a pretty impressive graph a few days ago Presto. Are you doing this with real money?

presto

5th April 2007, 01:49

cheers wayne,
started with £1000, though i sometimes trade out.

the graph is actually using 'bookies odds' aswell, wheras i use betfair for the bets. well sort of - the odd's on bets are @ betfair prices, but the long shots can sometimes really be 'nutty stakes' like 10% £300 on a 12/1 shot :yikes: - so i woulkd scale down the odd's to 8/1 (for example) to be entered into the spreadsheet for something like a £50 stake (which i would have @ 12/1).

i know it's going against the system but it makes sense, and the problem will be eliminated once i start 'banded staking %', there also may be a reason why the big odd's aswell - like an injury that i didn't pick up in the stats.

presto

5th April 2007, 01:58

and i just have to add - washington wizards player 'ruffin' is a :icon_tong - watch the video http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=270330027 ;fire

5th April 2007, 02:05

I'm half thinking of setting up a small bank. Is there any staking plan, or is it levels? What time do you post the selections, and what is the time difference? Is there much liquidity? My knowledge of the sport is nil.

presto

5th April 2007, 02:21

the games usually start at 00:05 and are staggered throughout the night so some start at 1am and the later ones as late as 3am ish. - sundays have early starts around 6pm.

i usually start working out the stats at 10:30 and then look at the odd's and place my bets at around 11ish - i normally get to post at about 11:30. i would do it sooner, but as it is heavily dependant on the odd's its best to keep it later on when the liquidity is there and the markets accurate.

the staking is pretty complicated at the moment, something i will have a go at simplyfying on friday when i get a bit of free time (no racing in the afternoon). then have a good look at the best staking method - i should be able to split the bet's up into A,B,C,D,E bets depending on value, the plan was A=5%, B=4% etc..... but thats something i will look into when i get the spreadsheet ready. - at the moment the spreadsheet is a bit 'clumsy' 30 odd collums wide :laugh , hopefully i can get it to display a more friendly:

game..............................selection.......bet type
pheonix @ new york.............away.............A

i wouldn't reccomend level stakes nor % stakes really, as there not a staking system that was designed for the picks. and as the graphs show are very erratic and not as good as the 'PSP' :D

presto

5th April 2007, 02:30

another possibility i have been looking into is, backing the odd's on value shots at the match odd's, and odd's against selections on the handicap betting. the SR is better (as expected) but it's only in the infantsy stage so far, as i havn't kept track of the handicaps - got a mate testing them (who incidentally i think is kered ;fire - logged into his account to see he spunked his bankroll on aussy / south african / american horse racing - £80 lost on £2 bets - despite many a lecture on the disciplin of betting. 1 race i saw he backed 4 sub 1.5 shots in the same race before the off :doh ). - but thats another rant.

5th April 2007, 02:32

Thanks Presto. I'll hold off for a bit then, as I'm not sure I'd be online for most of the hours where the liquidity is there.

presto

5th April 2007, 02:40

Thanks Presto. I'll hold off for a bit then, as I'm not sure I'd be online for most of the hours where the liquidity is there.

he says @ 2:35 :laugh :)

theres normally plenty of liquidity enough to get every bet on at 11:30 safely, i assume most people place there bets at this time all in one go. even in running liquidity is ok - the orlando / toronto game just finished had £210K matched.