golden lay [Archive] - Win2Win UK Horse Racing Forum. Free Tips. Staking Advice.

bigmazey

15th January 2007, 14:11

And to think I was looking for it as there was something wrong with my browser. But nevermind as Kieth has posted plenty of losers or is that winners.

Kieth can you make sure the next loser(winner) is on a day I cant access the computer. Hopefully when I'm holiday in August or something like that.

Thanks

BigM

mickada

16th January 2007, 15:19

Is there a golden lay today as nothing on the front page as yet?

Just recently joined and am not sure what time it get puts on there as a rule.

Followed friday,sunday and monday so have got a bit to make up.

Thanks

Mick

presto

16th January 2007, 15:22

try refreshing your browser - there is 2 posted there, 1 already run and 2:50 high calibre

vegyjones

16th January 2007, 15:22

try pressing ctrl + alt & refresh.
might be a cached page. there's 2 today!

presto

16th January 2007, 15:55

grrr another winner :(

Win2Win

16th January 2007, 15:58

We did get to 120pts way too fast, it's about level with the stats now.

texpis

16th January 2007, 15:59

what happens in a situation like that where one of the main contenders is a non runner? should you still do the lay? :doh

presto

16th January 2007, 16:00

what happens in a situation like that where one of the main contenders is a non runner? should you still do the lay? :doh

yup

Mavrick

16th January 2007, 16:08

I backed the Fav last night and then got stitched up by the non-runner, but it lost anyway so I didn't do much better;fire

mickada

16th January 2007, 16:51

Thanks for that guys, that did the trick. Missed the first one and decided against the second one fortunately.

There's always tomorrow.

presto

16th January 2007, 16:54

Thanks for that guys, that did the trick. Missed the first one and decided against the second one fortunately.

There's always tomorrow.

if you pick and chose which selections to lay then you are not doing them as a system.

SMEEMINATOR

16th January 2007, 17:27

Ive been watchin golden lays for a while now and yesterday seemed like a good day to start. System has a great strike rate so day after a losing bet was the perfect time to start..............WRONG!!!!!!!, ahh well, never been more than 2 in row so tomorrow would be okay..............WRONG!!!!!!!
It hasnt put me off completely but what sh!!!y luck. Wasnt sure if todays 2-50 was still a bet due to one of the main rivals being a non-runner.

Heres hopin for a decent run from now on.

Keep it goin, cheers

mathare

16th January 2007, 17:40

System has a great strike rate so day after a losing bet was the perfect time to startNot quite sure of the logic behind this. It seems system betting is very misunderstood

bigcumba

16th January 2007, 18:16

Not quite sure of the logic behind this. It seems system betting is very misunderstood

Yep, especially when it comes to probability of losing runs and stats. Still, it should all come good again pretty quickly.

mickada

17th January 2007, 11:38

What is the best staking plan for the golden lays?

As its so successful is level stakes best or a percentage of the bank?

Street cry

17th January 2007, 12:47

What is the best staking plan for the golden lays?

As its so successful is level stakes best or a percentage of the bank?

put the results in to excel and see for yourself i run a level stakes £50 fixed stake bank of £5000 alongside a 20point rolling bank which started at £20 fixed stake .
I would stick at levels and increase after a while if i was you maybe increase the bank by 50% and then when you do put 10% on your liability or something similarily sensible

MattR

17th January 2007, 12:49

I think most do it to level stakes, but I have been doing it to a fixed % of the bank. Just back checked and since I started about a month ago, even with this weeks three wins I am £54 up. Using £5 fixed stake I would have still been £30 up. This was with a starting bank of an odd £77 I had in a betfair account.

mickada

17th January 2007, 13:07

Thanks for that guys, useful info as I have only just started following the golden lays on a friends recommendation.
Have not had a brilliant start but previous results are solid

bigmazey

17th January 2007, 14:04

OCEANOS DES OBEAUX is this still the golden lay as Carlitos is a non runner or does it always not matter about non runners.

mathare

17th January 2007, 14:07

NRs are factored in so this is still the Golden Lay

bigmazey

17th January 2007, 14:08

thanks Mathare will remember this.

presto

17th January 2007, 15:11

:splapme again

racehorse

17th January 2007, 15:12

thats a bad run guys

MattR

17th January 2007, 15:15

I think this thread should be destroyed it's brought nothing but bad luck!

I actually bet this one back on a whim, layed it at 2.54 and it went out over 3 so I decided to bet back seeing as it was the big favourite that was a non runner which was also one of Keith's A+ bets. Wouldn't normally do it and probably in the long run it wouldn't be profitable. Guess I just got lucky this time.

Win2Win

17th January 2007, 15:31

You have to buy back EVERY qualifier if you are doing that.

It's not a bad run, same stats as the first 6 months. :doh

MattR

17th January 2007, 15:36

You have to buy back EVERY qualifier if you are doing that.

It's not a bad run, same stats as the first 6 months. :doh

Yes, don't really know why I did bet it back. Certainly no reason to question a system that's almost doubled the starting bank in just over a month :D Not to mention it's free!

vegyjones

17th January 2007, 15:42

It's this thread. It has thrown doubts on eveything. Soon, you'll start wearing make up because you don't know if you should go out without it :ooo

I should know... it's happened to me :yikes:

MattR

17th January 2007, 15:45

It's this thread. It has thrown doubts on eveything. Soon, you'll start wearing make up because you don't know if you should go out without it :ooo

I should know... it's happened to me :yikes:

It's a slippery slope, next thing you'll be supporting Leyton Orient and then you're beyond help :D

Win2Win

17th January 2007, 15:53

I'm still up on them this year, what's all the fuss about? :)

It's 100/1 shots winning races that kick me in the nuts :(

Street cry

17th January 2007, 16:01

although 4 out of 5 in recent days seems harsh it's not so bad todays barely cost anything and the others came after a good run so all things being equal which they invariably are we can expect them to carry on as usual which suggests 85% sr and a more than reasonable margin :)

darcy666

20th January 2007, 14:21

Another winner. Going through a little patch at the moment. Luckily I didn't fancy Man of vision at all so I had quite a big lay on him and offset the loss.

Street cry

20th January 2007, 14:24

yep getting hammered :mad: :ermmm

mathare

20th January 2007, 14:26

yep getting hammered :mad: :ermmmIncluding today's I am only down 1.6xBB on the Golden Lays. That's not a hammering in my book by any means

Mavrick

20th January 2007, 14:36

Has it been easier to absorb now that you are laying them to a fix liability?

mathare

20th January 2007, 14:42

Has it been easier to absorb now that you are laying them to a fix liability?I haven't done any comparisons to FS since the start of the year but FL meant I built up a big buffer to absorb the losses when they came. Sure, it meant that short winners were costing me more but then short losers were making me more. I made 0.4xBB on yesterday's, for example. The 1.6xBB I am down now can be won back with probably only 5 or 6 more losers.

But the biggest thing for me, more than the staking, is the emotional detachment I have learned to apply. I don't care if the horse wins or loses. Well, I care a bit but I don't get excited by a winning bet or disheartened by a losing bet. It's just a result and a number in a line on a spreadsheet. After 6 months or a year I can then take a view on those numbers and see how things have worked out. But for me these days betting is almost robotic. I click the buttons to put the money at risk then I fill in the results in the spreadsheet and watch some numbers change. Repeat the following day.

Mavrick

20th January 2007, 15:07

Yes I understand and I think that's the only way to do it but, it must be a nightmare trying to get all of Keiths bets on whilst trying to use W.O.M. to try and get some value.
I only do the golden lay and I've been following the Jumping For Profit system but not actually backing them (which maybe I should of really as my bank would of gone up by 23% in under a month:ooo ) but as you don't really know what Keith thinks the true prices of them should be it seems like unless you spent a large amount of time monitoring the exchanges you're not going to do anywhere near as good as you could do.
I've always been against systems but the last few months that I've been on here I've started to change my mind and I'm definately going to have a go with a couple of small banks but, I think less is more as I would need plenty of time to watch the prices and I don't want to have to deal with 20+ bets a day.
Slightly off topic but why not?:)

Street cry

20th January 2007, 15:10

u think 20 is bad try 200

Mavrick

20th January 2007, 15:14

That just sounds crazy to me. How do you cope doing it?

mathare

20th January 2007, 15:21

That just sounds crazy to me. How do you cope doing it?For me I record all bets in the spreadsheet as step 1. I then go through the A+ bets comparing the prices in Oddschecker with those on Betfair, calculating where the best price is once commission has been accounted for. I place those bets at the best price there and then, leaving orders 1 tick up if WOM suggests they will be matched soon. Repeat for the flat systems. Repeat for the NH systems. Then on to lays, working down the list placing the bets and leaving orders at the best blue price where appropriate. Back down the list again to mark off matched bets and adjust orders as necessary. Once more down the list and it's job done. Averaging maybe 40-50 bets a day and I can handle that quite comfortably. If I wasn't working for a living I'd be looking to dutch and trade a lot more

Street cry

20th January 2007, 15:34

That just sounds crazy to me. How do you cope doing it?

it's a full time job :)

Mavrick

20th January 2007, 15:40

That's actually really interesting. I read the staking reviews you've done and you actually know pretty much exactly what's going on with all the systems and your individual banks. Wouldn't you rather cover less for bigger stakes or do you like spreading things around alot. I don't mean putting all your eggs in one basket but just not so many. Do you mean dutching and trading your own bets or keiths bets?

Mavrick

20th January 2007, 15:41

it's a full time job :)

I bet it is.

Street cry

20th January 2007, 15:59

how much i'l lay carpet on ha ha :Helooo

mathare

20th January 2007, 16:02

That's actually really interesting. I read the staking reviews you've done and you actually know pretty much exactly what's going on with all the systems and your individual banks.I do know exactly where every bank stands at the end of every day, that's what good record keeping is about. I know how many bets I have placed in each system, how many of them won, my profit, SR and the SP of every bet too. That's what enables me to conduct these staking reviews.

Wouldn't you rather cover less for bigger stakes or do you like spreading things around alot. I don't mean putting all your eggs in one basket but just not so many.I like to have an interest in as many races as possible and to have a good mix of backing and laying. Having a lot of bets on means that when I get a chance to check the settlers page on Sporting Life throughout a working afternoon I have a few bets to consider. And it gives me a short break from work more often, which is never a bad thing.

Do you mean dutching and trading your own bets or keiths bets?If I was doing this full time I'd be looking to supplement Keith's selections with my own systems and massively improve my form and market reading so dutching and trading of my own selections.

Mavrick

20th January 2007, 16:14

Thanks for that. It's good to see how others are doing it.

mathare

20th January 2007, 16:17

Thanks for that. It's good to see how others are doing it.Well there are many wrong ways there is no single right way to do it though Mav. You need to find a way that works for you but still sticks to the best principles. What works for me may not work for you or anyone else.

JTM24

20th January 2007, 22:15

Today's Golden Lay Noojoom was lost at 2.9...I use Betfair and I didn't see the opportunity for a 2.9
I just want to know where (book?) did you guys get 2.9 lay and around what time did you guys get the 2.9
I'll appreciate the info because that was a really good price. The lowest point on betfair for todays golden lay was at 4.0, so you guys probably did not get it at betfair.

Thanks fo the info

Jimmy