SP and Overbet?

[byepeeps]

What is overbet exactly? Also do I need the SP and Overbet columns in Keith's betting spreadsheet? I'm using betfair so I was intending to get rid of the overbet column and rename the SP column to exchange price.

[mathare]

What is overbet exactly? Also do I need the SP and Overbet columns in Keith's betting spreadsheet? I'm using betfair so I was intending to get rid of the overbet column and rename the SP column to exchange price.A few thoughts occur to me here...


It's your spreadsheet now, do what you want with it
What spreadsheet?
Why not record SP and Betfair prices and measure your overbet?


Overbet is basically the amount you beat SP by. You should be looking for 10% or more really.

So if a horse goes off at 5/1 and you get matched at 6.6 on Betfair you have done well. You got 5.6/1 on a 5/1 winner so you beat SP by over 10% here. Of course by the time you factor in commission on the exchanges you got less than 10% overbet but let's not complicate things at this stage.

[byepeeps]

The spreadsheet i was talking about was the one Keith sends out with his systems.

Yeah the overbet thing does sound like it could over-complicate matters when taking commission into account. Recently I've noticed that the prices aren't that much better on the exchange.

Another idiot question; how can you tell a race is a National Hunt race? Will it always have national hunt in the race title?

[mathare]

The spreadsheet i was talking about was the one Keith sends out with his systems.Oh right, that one. It's yours to do with as you please but if I were you I would think about recording SP and Betfair prices to calculate your overbet. The prices are better on the exchanges and I am recording around a 10% overbet after commission. It all adds up.


Another idiot question; how can you tell a race is a National Hunt race? Will it always have national hunt in the race title?It won't always have National Hunt in the title, no. But there will be a few clues. Look for:

hurdle
chase
NH flat race
NH

I think that covers it all really.

[byepeeps]

Great so any race with one of those 4 things will be an NH race?

[mathare]

Great so any race with one of those 4 things will be an NH race?Yep :)

[Mavrick]

Yep

[Mavrick]

How weird was that?

[byepeeps]

Thanks. I like your Rocky Balboa quote mavrick, is that from the new film?

[wb]

You should note that NH flat races are often called 'bumper' races, so add that to the list. Also, some chases are referred to as 'steeplechases' so stick that one down:


hurdle
chase
steeplechase
NH flat race
bumper
NH

[byepeeps]

Thanks wb. There's loads then! I didn't realise that any hurdle or chase is an NH. I guess that shows how much i need to learn but that's what I'm here for.

[Mavrick]

Thanks. I like your Rocky Balboa quote mavrick, is that from the new film?


Sorry I went to bed after posting last night. Yeah it's from the new film. I haven't seen it yet but, I heard Sly quote it in an interview in "hello":)

[Mavrick]

Basically anything held on a jumps card is National Hunt. Have a look at the top of the racing post card where it gives the going description. If it's a jumps card it will give the going for both the "Chase" course and the "Hurdles" course, even though they maybe both the same. If it doesn't say anything about the chase/hurdle course then it's a flat meeting and not national hunt.
Although "Bumpers" are flat races, they still count as national hunt. They will normally be the very last race on a jumps card.

[byepeeps]

I love the rocky films! My ex bought me the dvd pack with all of them. I haven't seen the new one at the cinema yet though. I agree with the quote though.

[mathare]

Basically anything held on a jumps card is National Hunt.But beware as Lingfield at least holds some mixed meetings with a few NH races in the middle of some flat stuff, all at the same meeting

[Mavrick]

Good thinking there Mat. Sandown also does the same with it's meeting at the end of April.

[byepeeps]

but if i look out for the key words you both gave then they should be NH races?

[Win2Win]

Yer. You get AW flat meetings, and they hide a NH bumper at the end.....usually the best race :laugh

[Merlin]

If the orse is carrying less than 10st...its not NH
If the distance is less than 2 miles, its not NH
If theres a 3 year old in the race (UK) its not NH

[Win2Win]

The MESSIAH is BACK :Helooo :Helooo :Helooo ::hump ::hump ::hump

:irish: :Kilt: :Britain: :position:

[Merlin]

The MESSIAH is BACK :Helooo :Helooo :Helooo ::hump ::hump ::hump

:irish: :Kilt: :Britain: :position:

Correct - I am indeed the anticipated saviour of the Jews...:laugh

Could Aronovich, Ebermann, Dawidowitsch, Levinsky, Minkovsky and Salomone please form a line...You have won a holiday! :yikes:

[byepeeps]

Back to where I started .. mathare where do you get your SP prices from? and how do you work out if you've got 10% or more overbet after commission?

[presto]

SP you can get from the racing post or sporting life,

[Win2Win]

You work out overbet before comms, as you are comparing prices you struck.

Overbetting is something to get to grips with after you have been making money for 1-2 years.

[byepeeps]

ok i just thought you said it makes the difference between a profitable system and non profitable one.

Where on racing post can I find the SPs?

[mathare]

Where on racing post can I find the SPs?Every horse racing result printed anywhere will show the SP. It's on the right of the Sporting Life results and I still refuse to use the RP site to double check where they put it.

As for working out 10%+ overbet after commission, you multiply the odds you took by (1-commission) and then use that in your calculations. So if you're paying 5% commission and got matched at 10.0 then I'd use 9.5 in my overbet calculations.

[byepeeps]

How do you get the SP before the race? It's not the forecast price is it. Sorry confused.

[mathare]

How do you get the SP before the race? It's not the forecast price is it. Sorry confused.SP doesn't exist before the race. No such thing. SP is computed from the bookies on the course and the prices they are offering just before the off. Someone averages it all out and then publishes the SP for each runner in the race when the results are announced.

It's most definitely not the forecast price.

[presto]

How do you get the SP before the race? It's not the forecast price is it. Sorry confused.

you can't.
SP is worked out when the race has started.

[wb]

How do you get the SP before the race? It's not the forecast price is it. Sorry confused.

You cannot get the SP before the race.

SP = Starting Price - That is, the price that the horses were available at as soon as the race is off.

You will see the SP's of each horse in the results. For example, in yesterdays last race at Lingfield http://www.racing.victorchandler.press.net/results.php?id=145472&meet=18117

Here, the Starting price for the winner was 7/2

---------------------------

Do not confuse this with the FORECAST PRICE (f/c). The forcast price is a guide price only. In the morning papers, and on websites such as the Racing Post/Sporting Life, a guide will be given to the probable SP's.


If you are taking a price on a horse, the idea is to get it higher than the SP when backing, and lower than the SP when laying.

[byepeeps]

So I definitely can't get it before the race :D JOKING !!

Thanks for the replies. Is it just a case of hoping that you get higher than SP for backs and lower than SP for lays?

[mathare]

Is it just a case of hoping that you get higher than SP for backs and lower than SP for lays?Mainly, but not entirely...

Oddschecker can be used to see what the bookies are offering as an early price ie a price you can take before the race starts, often several hours before. You may be lucky and take an early 10/1 about a horse that has an SP of 4/1. But the same horse could also drift out from 10/1 and start at 16/1. So early prices are a bit of a gamble at times. But they do provide a guide to what the bookies think is a fair price for that horse at that time so you can compare the available Betfair prices to the bookies prices. Betfair won't always beat these early prices

[byepeeps]

Yeah because when I've looked at recent prices, comparing betfair with various bookies, often betfair hasn't been that much better if at all.