New member seeks advice

[Tadgetastic]

Hello all, I have recently been off work after having an operation and decided to try to devise a system for horse racing using the online Racing Post.
I have ended up using three seperate systems, one for generally shorter priced runners, one for selections over F/C 5-1 and one for the all weather.
Since I started on 26.1.07 these systems in total have produced 495 selections of which 140 have won (strike rate 28%) at a level stakes profit of 233 points at SP (47% ROI).
After monitoring for about a month I decided to take the plunge and start betting. My initial bank was £100 and I decided to bet with minimum stakes of £2.
My bank is now £210 and this is where I need some advice please.
At what point would you advise I increase my stakes and to what? I don't want to go overboard and double my stake just because my bank has doubled, as I am nervous of a long losing run wiping out all my hard work in half the time.
My aim though, is to gradually increase the profits from what seems to be (at the moment) a pretty profitable system.
Also, the key to any system apart from selecting winners is to get the best possible price for your winners. When I bet on Betfair I sometimes get a Speculative price matched and sometimes end up taking a price when I could have got three points better the night before. I never know where to pitch it and the price I get for my selections seems more down to luck than judgement.
Has anyone got any tips for getting the best out of Betfair?
I hope some of you will be kind enough to reply and I wish you all the very best of luck with your betting. Thanks.

[mathare]

First of all welcome to the forum :)

Secondly, congratulations on your systems, they seem to be doing pretty well.

Staking - you started with a £2 stake from a £100 bank so your initial stake was 2%. Why not stick to this? That means a stake at the minute of £4.20. By linking the stake to the bank like this the stake will increase and decrease with the bank and thus prevent you from going bust during the bad times.

I know you said you were nervous of doubling the stake because the bank has doubled and you are right to be wary. 2% staking gives you 50 bets in the bank. You could reduce the percentage to say 1.5% and stake at that level. Growth will be slower but losing runs will hit you less hard and you have more security as you now have 66 bets in the bank.

Getting the best price on Betfair can be a bit of a black art. Generally speaking I would forget about the markets the night before and concetrate on them when they are more fully formed on the day of the race. Use Oddschecker to compare Betfair prices with several online bookies. Depending on when you place the bet you may find that the bookies are actually offering better prices than Betfair.

Hope that helps.

[vegyjones]

Hope the injury didn't involve having things being taken off, or anything going missing!

[Tadgetastic]

Thanks for the advice.

I think I will end up doing what you suggest ie. staking a percentage of the bank, unless it drops back down to below the minimum stake.

One of the problems I have with betfair is that I work a Three Shift system which means I have to place bets/orders at various times, some the night before, some early in the morning and some up to around mid-day. A lot of the time I am placing bets at a certain price and hoping they get matched.

I have managed to get some really good prices but I have also missed some opportunities. I suppose it all evens out in the end, but I wish there was a bit more logic (that I can see) in it.

Thanks again.

[Mavrick]

If you know something about the horses you are betting on and have a vague idea of what sort of price they should be, then I wouldn't be afraid to leave offers the night before as your stakes are still small and there is a very good chance you will get them matched if you don't go over board with the sort of prices that you are asking for. If you don't know much about form or you just don't want to waste time having a look at the individual races (which is the beauty of a system) then just take Mats advice and wait until the markets are better formed nearer the off. Just stay consistant with whatever you choose to do as it will then all come out in the wash anyway.

I don't know what sort of factors your system is based on, but a 495 bet sample seems pretty safe to me to just bet at least 2% of your betting bank on. Perhaps more.

[buddhabee]

If you're afraid of losing some of your bank, use a Bank Barrier to protect a portion of it.

Read the Golden Balls section for information about how it works.

[mathare]

I don't think Tadgetastic has access to the Golden Balls section BB

[Tadgetastic]

Thanks everyone. I think I will start to stake a percentage of my bank.
Is there a correlation between the size of the sample used and the percentage of bank used as stake then?
As I have had 28% winners over 495 selections can I safely assume that I will continue to find winners at the same strike rate? If so then really I should be increasing my stakes directly in line with what I have already achieved ie. 2% of bank as stake.
But being naturally pessimistic I can't really believe how well this system is doing and therefore I am wary about increasing stakes just before it collapses. I also want to disregard my initial bank so that if the system takes a nosedive I can at least quit and tell the wife I haven't lost anything.:)
As for Betfair, my problem is I work a 3 shift system at work and therefore I have to put bets/orders on at odd times like the night before or very early in the morning. So I find it hard to judge a price which may get matched, as I am only using RP forecast odds as a guide.

[bigcumba]

Another one bites the dust...

welcome aboard Tadge - pity some daftie had to take it upon themselves to post spam in your first thread !