MLB - value bets

[presto]

ny mets @ st louis

[yerotsluap]

good call on that one mate

seems to be quite a bit of value about for tonights games

Good luck with the thread

[presto]

cheers mate,
to be honnest i am clueless about baseball :pk1 so just doing it by the stats. but if it can do as well as the basketball i will be happy.

plenty of games, so i will leave it till around 5:00 each day to place the bets - the system does better when there is a 100% book (or as near to as).

[presto]

the baseball odd's look pretty dam tight, only very small bets - boston being the biggest value with a 2.3% bet, atlanta next best value at 1.6% - a few of the bets have been left as orders at the required odd's to be a bet (should be matched).

texas @ la angels
cleaveland @ chicago ws
toronto @ detroit
boston @ kansas
la dodgers @ milwaukee
baltimore @ minnesota
tampa bay @ ny yankees
oakland @ seattle
chicago cubs @ cinccinati
pitsburg @ houston
florida @ washington
atlanta @ philadelphia
arizona @ colorado

[MattR]

Good luck with these Presto, what stats are using at this stage of the season?

[presto]

using the long term team stats, and the recent (warm up - not ideal i know) stats aswell, with player adverages. i was a bit wary of using the warm up game stats, but things should get into a rythm after a few games proper, i was going to wait a week or two, but just dived in :rolleyes: - the adverage stake is only £9 (£1000 bank) so it should be safe enough even if it does get a wobbly start.

[Larsson7]

using the long term team stats, and the recent (warm up - not ideal i know) stats aswell, with player adverages. i was a bit wary of using the warm up game stats, but things should get into a rythm after a few games proper, i was going to wait a week or two, but just dived in :rolleyes: - the adverage stake is only £9 (£1000 bank) so it should be safe enough even if it does get a wobbly start.


Good luck with this mate....word of caution if I may. Be wary of using warm up games ( Spring Training ) for form guides...the teams often use shadow squads, and from time to time the games are not played to a conclusion.

[presto]

san diego @ san fransisco
florida @ washington
la dodgers @ milwaukee
pitsburg @ houston
baltimore @ minnesota
ny mets @ st louis
arizona @ colorado
oakland @ seattle
texas @ la angels

[MattR]

the baseball odd's look pretty dam tight,



You'll find they almost always are Presto. You'll occasionally get some over 3.00 and very rarely one will go over 4.00. There's really not a great deal between most of the teams and a lot depends on who the starting pitcher is. Any team can beat another on any given night. The more consistent teams are the ones who rise to the top.

[presto]

florida @ washington
tampa bay @ ny yankees
toronto @ detroit
cleaveland @ chicago ws
arizona @ colorado
texas @ la angels

the rest will come a bit later

[presto]

atlanta @ philadelphia
chicago cubs @ cinccinati
la dodgers @ milwaukee
pitsburg @ houston
baltimore @ minnesota
boston @ kansas
ny mets @ st louis
oakland @ seattle
san diego @ san fransisco

[Larsson7]

You'll find they almost always are Presto. You'll occasionally get some over 3.00 and very rarely one will go over 4.00. There's really not a great deal between most of the teams and a lot depends on who the starting pitcher is. Any team can beat another on any given night. The more consistent teams are the ones who rise to the top.


Great post mate....

[presto]

yup - the 'presto system' stats are telling me that 32/38 of the selections are tight (between 40% - 60% chance of winning). - a bit of a change from the NBA which has much bigger differences in class gap.

[Larsson7]

yup - the 'presto system' stats are telling me that 32/38 of the selections are tight (between 40% - 60% chance of winning). - a bit of a change from the NBA which has much bigger differences in class gap.

Even the great sides lose 25-30% of regular season games.

[presto]

cheers for the advice larson and mat.
this system is all a bit of a learning process, (much like the basketball) so hopefully i will sort of learn as i go.

[presto]

forgot about the first 2 games :splapme

cleaveland @ chicago ws
boston @ kansas
atlanta @ philadelphia
arizona @ washington
tampa bay @ ny yankees
oakland vs la angels
san diego @ san fransisco

big on kansas

[MattR]

big on kansas

These are the type of ones you may get a bit of profit with because they play 3 or 4 game series and chances are the underdogs will win one of them.

[presto]

hopefully this one :) the first game of the sereise saw boston as a big (in comparison) bet at long odd's on - and they lost. ;fire

[presto]

well i hate boston in 2 sports now ;fire - my biggest losers in basketball and now baseball.

[MattR]

Presto, just a thought of the top of my head here and whether there's anything in it I don't know, possibly not, but could what you are doing work if each team had its own 'bank' and you only bet the next bet on them when they are a value pick?

[presto]

i have been something similar like that with the football this season (going well) it would be quite a huge task to do that with the value bets.

basically setting up 20 banks for the top 10 teams in the prem / championship (will expand into europe next season) which follows a stepping plan. but that was easy to follow as i just looked at the previous result and entered the next stake manually (no working out). (all 20 teams fit easily on 1 worksheet).
but to do that with the value bets i would have to set up 30 different worksheets, one for each team, plus the origional worksheet with all the calculations, then work out the selection on the origional worksheet - then enter that + the calculations into the 'specific team' worksheet, so that it works out the stake from that teams bank.

................

2nd thaughts (thinking by typing :) - i could enter the 2 teams into different collums rather than just the game in one collum. and instead of home / away in the 'selection' collum, could have the team name - from which i could use a lookup formula to find the individual teams bank from which to use instead of the 'total running bank'.

:laugh :laugh :laugh - i hate spreadsheets and this sound's like work :( - good idea though.

i may just run it for a while though before making any changes (the basketball got off to a poor start), and it really is just a bit of a test.

[presto]

boston @ texas
seattle @ cleaveland
baltimore @ ny yankees
philadelphia @ florida
pitsburg @ cincinati
toronto @ tampa bay
ny mets @ atlanta
chcago cubs @ milwaukee
detroit @ kansas
minesota @ chicago ws
colorado @ san diego
oakland @ la angels
la dodgers @ san fransisco

[presto]

a pretty awfull start - 33% SR adv odds evens - the biggest bets all losing.

so going to give it a week (or so) for the form to settle.

[presto]

going to resurect this thread, it's been an awfull start admitadly but i want to finish off the rest of the season (still a load of games to go), still using the same 'presto' formula for value.

chicago cubs @ texas
ny yankees @ colarado
baltimore @ san diego
la dodgers @ toronto
pitsburg @ seattle

[presto]

chicago cubs vs chicago ws
cleaveland @ washington
minesota @ florida
colorado @ toronto
la dodgers @ tampa bay
oakland @ ny mets
detroit @ atlanta
kansas @ milwaukee
philadelphia @ st louis
houston @ texas
baltimore @ arizona
cincinnati @ seattle
pitsburg @ la angels
boston @ san diego
ny yankees @ san fransisco

[presto]

arizona @ chicago cubs
cincinnati @ florida
colarado @ washington
chicago ws @ boston
houston @ pittsburg
kansas @ detroit
tampa bay @ ny yankees
seattle @ toronto
st louis @ atlanta
san fransisco @ milwaukee
la angels @ minnesota
cleaveland @ texas
baltimore @ oakland
philadelphia @ san diego
ny mets @ la dodgers

[presto]

starting bank £1,000
profit -£190.82
current bank £809
adverage stake £8
adverage odd's 1.97
selections 111
wins 47
losses 64
liability £846.36
SR 42.34%
POI -22.55%
% increase -19.08%

[presto]

arizona @ chicago cubs 2.56 Away
tampa bay @ ny yankees 2.90 Away
seattle @ toronto 1.85 Home
colarado @ washington 1.93 Away
chicago ws @ boston 1.60 Home
ny mets @ la dodgers 1.71 Home
san fransisco @ milwaukee 1.76 Home
cincinnati @ florida 2.32 2.32 Away
kansas city @ detroit 1.38 Home
st louis @ atlanta 1.77 Home
la angels @ minnesota 2.08 Home
houston @ pittsburg 1.98 Away
cleaveland @ texas 1.76 Away
baltimore @ oakland 2.94 Away
philadelphia @ san diego 2.18 Away

[presto]

cincannati @ florida 1.97 Away
kansas city @ detroit 2.52 Away
tampa bay @ ny yankees 2.66 Away
seattle @ toronto 1.80 Home
colarado @ washington 2.10 Home
houston @ pittsburg 2.02 Away
chicago ws @ boston 1.77 Home
san fransisco @ milwaukee 1.80 Home
al angels @ minnesota 2.10 Away
arizona @ chicago cubs 1.66 Home
baltimore @ oakland 2.06 Away
philadelphia @ san diego 3.00 Away
st louis @ atlanta 2.20 Away
cleaveland @ texas 1.80 Away

[presto]

boston @ cleaveland 1.79 Home
minnesota @ toronto 2.34 Home
milwaukee @ cincinnati 2.14 Away
la dodgers @ houston 2.06 Home
ny yankees @ kansas city 1.59 Away
detroit @ chicago ws 2.02 Away
seattle @ texas 1.86 Home
san diego @ colarado 2.28 Away
florida @ arizona 2.08 Away
oakland @ la angels 1.83 Home
atlanta @ san fransisco 1.96 Away

[presto]

boston @ cleaveland 1.87 Home
tampa bay @ baltimore 2.08 Away
washington @ philadelphia 1.65 Home
minnesota @ toronto 1.91 Home
milwaukee @ cincinnati 1.79 Away
pitsburg @ ny mets 1.59 Home
la dodgers @ houston 1.94 Away
seattle @ texas 1.88 Away
chicago cubs @ st louis 2.26 Home
ny yankees @ kansas city 1.42 Away
detroit @ chicago ws 1.90 Away
san diego @ colarado 2.32 Home
florida @ arizona 1.93 Away
oakland @ la angels 1.58 Home
atlanta @ san fransisco 1.84 Away

[presto]

san diego @ colarado 2.30 Away
oakland @ la angels 1.60 Home
boston @ cleaveland 2.00 Away
tampa bay @ baltimore 2.96 Away
washington @ philadelphia 1.44 Home
milwaukee @ cincinnati 1.94 Home
pitsburg @ ny mets 1.72 Home
la dodgers @ houston 2.42 Home
chicago cubs @ st louis 12.00 Home
ny yankees @ kansas city 1.77 Away
detroit @ chicago ws 1.76 Away
seattle @ texas 2.06 Home
florida @ arizona 2.56 Away
atlanta @ san fransisco 2.04 Away

[presto]

minnesota @ cleveland 2.82 Away
ny yankees @ baltimore 2.26 Home
pitsburg @ philadelphia 1.61 Home
boston @ tampa bay 1.67 Away
chicago cubs @ cinccinati 2.12 Home
washington @ ny mets 1.57 Home
san diego @ houston 2.44 Home
milwaukee @ st louis 2.02 Away
texas @ kansas city 1.83 Home
toronto @ chicago ws 2.12 Away
la dodgers @ colarado 2.02 Away
atlanta @ arizona 2.14 1.85 Home
detroit @ la angels 2.3 1.74 Home
oakland @ seattle 2.56 1.64 Home
florida @ san fransisco 2.26 Away

[presto]

atlanta @ arizona 1.78 Away
detroit @ la angels 1.86 Home
san diego @ houston 2.32 Away
oakland @ seattle 1.92 Home
minnesota @ cleveland 2.36 Home
ny yankees @ baltimore 1.59 Away
pitsburg @ philadelphia 1.68 Home
toronto @ chicago ws 1.77 Away
boston @ tampa bay 2.14 Home
chicago cubs @ cinccinati 1.85 Home
texas @ kansas city 1.97 Away
washington @ ny mets 1.59 Home
milwaukee @ st louis 1.97 Away
florida @ san fransisco 2.16 Away

[presto]

minnesota @ cleveland 1.56 Home
washington @ ny mets 1.47 Home
chicago cubs @ cinccinati 2.46 Home
ny yankees @ baltimore 1.58 Away
pitsburg @ philadelphia 1.74 Home
boston @ tampa bay 2.32 Home
san diego @ houston 1.80 Home
toronto @ chicago ws 2.10 Away
texas @ kansas city 2.00 Home
milwaukee @ st louis 1.82 Away
la dodgers @ colarado 2.00 Home
florida @ san fransisco 2.00 Home
oakland @ seattle 2.24 Home
atlanta @ arizona 1.75 Away
detroit @ la angels 1.76 2.26 Home

[presto]

philladelphia @ chicago cubs 2.06 2.06 Away
toronto @ tampa bay 2.26 Home
kansas city @ minnesota 2.34 Away
detroit @ oakland 2.12 2.12 Away
la angels @ seattle 1.86 1.86 Away

[presto]

starting bank £1,000
profit -£220.79
current bank £779
adverage stake £8
adverage odd's 1.98
selections 222
wins 107
losses 115
liability £1,686.31
SR 48.20%
POI -13.09%
% increase -22.08%

still not good, but the SR has improved since the restart after the mid season all star break.
the staking also looks far from great, with a lot of the big bets losing, the biggest stake i had £50 seems well off the £8 adverage (possibly a starting pitcher change from what my stats said to mess up the odd's and totally skey whe perceived value).
though i will be staking differently when i analyse the data properly.

[presto]

baltimore @ boston 2.52 Away
cincinatti @ wasington 2.08 Away
colarado @ florida2.06 Away
chicago ws @ ny yankees 1.45 Home
st louis @ pitsburg 1.91 Away
texas @ cleaveland 1.45 Home
toronto @ tampa bay 2.12 Home
houston @ atlanta 2.56 Away
ny mets @ milwaukee 2.00 Home
philladelphia @ chicago cubs2.20 Away
kansas city @ minnesota 1.72 Home
arizona @ san diego 2.02 Home
detroit @ oakland 2.04 Away
la angels @ seattle 2.30 Home
san fransisco @ la dodgers 1.62 Home

[presto]

toronto @ tampa bay 1.90 Away
detroit @ oakland 1.92 Away
cincinatti @ wasington 1.84 Away
colarado @ florida 2.14 Away
chicago ws @ ny yankees 1.45 Home
st louis @ pitsburg 1.8 1.80 Away
texas @ cleaveland 1.55 Home
houston @ atlanta 1.69 Home
ny mets @ milwaukee 1.98 Home
philladelphia @ chicago cubs 2.36 Away
kansas city @ minnesota 2.24 Away
arizona @ san diego 2.16 Away
la angels @ seattle 2.24 2.00 Home

[presto]

texas @ cleaveland 2.70 Away
st louis @ pitsburg 2.84 Home
baltimore @ boston 1.47 Home
ny mets @ milwaukee 1.79 Home
philladelphia @ chicago cubs 2.34 Away
arizona @ san diego 3.10 Away
cincinatti @ wasington 2.22 Away
colarado @ florida 2.04 Home
houston @ atlanta 2.46 Away
la angels @ oakland 2.00 Away
san fransisco @ la dodgers 1.86 Home

[MattR]

How are these going Presto?

[presto]

not good unfortunately (especially last 2 days):

starting bank £1,000
profit -£284.59
current bank £715
adverage stake £7
adverage odd's 1.99
selections 268
wins 124
losses 144
liability £2,009.46
SR 46.27%
POI -14.16%
% increase -28.46%

i think that the biggest problem that i am having is that the bigger staked bets all seem to be losing :headbange

[MattR]

It really is a pig of a sport to make money on. Rarely are one teams odds over 3.50 and anybody can beat anyone else on any given day. Add to that the fact that the best team in the league on any season will also lose around 35% of their games!

[presto]

yup, i am not sure whats wrong with the system either. the picks are a lot different from the NBA system it was based on and i thaught i would get similar result's / picks - with the outsiders being the selection. however with the adverage odd's of 1.99 it picks roughly 50/50 - favs / underdogs, the NBA system picked a lot more 'big bets' aswell, with the vast majority being longer odd's so a winning big bet was a big boost to the bank. however this MLB system very rarely throws up a stand out big bet, and all of them so far have been on short priced losing favs. It's actually pretty much opposit from the NBA system for some reason :doh

though i will keep it going till the end of the season for data purposes (paper trading), as theres possibly a system to be had from filtering the results - such as back the fav (my ratings) when odd's against etc....

i may even try and adapt it for the new footy season, however i havn't really used ratings in footy before, then who knows try and have a go at ever sport :)

[MattR]

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out

[MattR]

Presto, have you ever tried in running betting with baseball? I did a fair bit last season and made some profit on it. My card changed after the season and I didn't bother renewing NASN as there was no baseball and then it became part of Setanta so I don't have it now.