Grand National System

[flick]

This is a system of elimination. Remove all horses which in a true handicap would carry less than 10 stone and over 11 stone 3lbs. only count horses aged 8-10, between 10-25/1. Remove all foreign trained horses. No amateur or claiming riders. Take away all horses that have not won over 3m or more in the last 18 months. Finally remove all horses that have never won on soft or better ground. I know this won't give you a definite winner but it will narrow down the field to just a few and help you to make a more informed decision. I have been looking into this race for many years and history shows that my system pulls out the winner regularly. For all you lazy people out there I will post the qualifiers on the qualifiers forum

[Win2Win]

The problem with this these days is that the trends have changed due to the way it is now handicapped. We have better horses running in it than a few years back, and the weights are much more compressed this year than any other. So a horses that would usually have been out the handicap are now in, and more will be probably be over 11st 3lb than in previous years.

Removing all foreign trained horses knocks out the Irish, wouldn't advise that one!

Treat past stats as a reference point only, unless you have at least 50 qualifiers (pref 100), but going back 50 years in the National is basically a different race so not possible.

Also the year BINDAREE won can be ruled out due to the number of horses taken out due to riderless donkeys :) Still a well deserved win for the trainer though :)

[flick]

Although I agree with your points, statistics in big races tend to stand the test of time. One minor error I did make is that ridding the field of foreign trained horses, does NOT include the Irish trained horses, just French, Czech etc....

As a point of reference, this years current qualifiers, without looking at form or knowing the riders are:

Davids Lad
Bindaree
HedgeHunter
Joss Naylor
Timbera
Clan Royal

From that list, just delete anything ridden by amateurs, apprentices etc...
Also delete any that dont fulfill the distance portion of the stats.

[wistda]

[bigcumba]

Long time no see Flick!

[flick]

Has been a while hasnt it :)

The racing world has however been very kind to me in my absence from W2W, so taking a lovely sunny holiday next week in Spain for a fortnight.

Once I am back, hopefully bronzed and muscled...well bronzed anyway, I'm looking forward to returning to W2W.

[John]

Good to see you back in the madhouse, Flick :)

[flick]

Well not quite the result I hoped for, I think the winner only failed on its age though, correct me if I am wrong please.

But of the 6 qualifiers I named prior to the race, several were there with a shout.

Clan Royal was a good 2nd at a reasonable place price and HedgeHunter was a faller at the last whilst in the first 3

[flick]

Hey look I'm back again for my yearly interjection, don't seem to find any time to pop in much these days due to work etc.... but I just wanted to let you know that the Grand National system I created, works just as well today as it ever did.
Just remember when removing foreign horses, it means just that..foreign, not Irish. Last years winner was ruled out only on age, it was 12 BUT...remember the criteria can be subject to your own interpretations, as in all racing there are blips and the unconventional occasionally happens, though in the main my system has a VERY good record, Just check the history books

[sparkyminer]

For all you lazy people out there I will post the qualifiers on the qualifiers forum
Same again mate? :wink :)

[Win2Win]

See my post above......

[flick]

Just checked the winners of the last 55 years and following my rules exactly you would have found the winner 23 times, if you had changed the age to between 8 and 12 instead of 8-10, you would have found an additional 9 winners. There were also a further 5 winners that have carried upto 11 stone 7lbs.

So on criteria alone 23/55 = Strike rate of 41.8%. Slight change on Age=32/55 Strike Rate of 58.2% and if you increase the win to weight ratio it becomes 37/55 a strike rate of 67.2%.

With on average of 6 qualifiers per year and a £10 level stake win on each qualifer= 6x10x55= 3300 Criteria Winners would have seen a return of £4848 a profit of £1500 or on average about £27 profit per year.

[Win2Win]

That's OK then, one qualifier a year, we can handle a losing run of 5 years :)

So to have backed all the above, including the legal betting age, we'd have to be at least 73 years old. Maybe Oldham backed them all then :laugh

[e55exboi]

How about dump the age rule and bet on all qualifiers being as prices are big... :peek

[silax]

whats the qualifiers then flick
i used a simple system last year backed 2 horses that had completed the course
amberly house and monty's whatsit both e/w made a few bob and had a great time cheering them both on

[Fadetoblack]

I know this is a long shot but did anybody hear the interview with the handicapper that looked after the Irish Grand National field? It was a very informative interview and educated me quite a bit to be honest. I know somethings are a bit obvious e.g. if a horse falls at the last fence but is travelling like the winner he is put up like the winner. Anyway, I could see that the interviewer was dying to get the handicapper's view of the possible winner and when he finally got the question out the answer started off diplomatic...

"Ah well....my job is done well before race day so....yada yada yada..." and then he came to it "I suppose the likes of numbersixvalvarda and Jack High would be two interesting ones...." He said it with such nonchalance....

I look out for a lot of things before a race. The night before I'm looking at the form of every horse, the stats from the track...and then things like significant jockey bookings and long journeys but I need to watch the televisual coverage of the meeting from start to finish, especially interviews with jockeys and trainers. Of course you need a strainer and the ability to read between the lines but if you had listened to the interview with Ruby after the first race the twinkle in his eye when he said that he was looking forward to his national mount was there for all to see.

[Win2Win]

Best systems their is, back any horse that has finished in the first 4 over ANY National fences race EW. This year it includes Gunner, Clan Royal, Amberleigh, and a few others.

[susanwells]

That is an awful lot of backing Keith :yikes:
the Irish National winner only got up in the closing strides.. I liked him though, especially as I had 20 on him ! :hearty

[Win2Win]

You can also use the 'Chase your losses plan' the following year :laugh

[flick]

That's OK then, one qualifier a year, we can handle a losing run of 5 years :)

So to have backed all the above, including the legal betting age, we'd have to be at least 73 years old. Maybe Oldham backed them all then :laugh

As wrote, I think I will dispense with the age limit of 10 and work upto 12 years old.

If you look at what I posted, there are approximately 6 qualifiers per year, not 1 and a strike rate of 58.2%which equates to 1 WINNER less than every 2 years approximately, most years there are around 2-3 qualifiers placed in the race which would significantly help the bank balance if the qualifiers were backed E/W.

Since 1980 there have been 51 qualifiers out of 150 Won or Placed in race. If £5 E/W on each had been placed on all qualifiers = 6*10*25 £1500 would have been staked, resulting in a return of £2178.77 again this results in a profit of around £27 per year which is a return of approximately 45% on your investment. Not too bad for minimal stakes.

[Onlyforfun]

In the last 7 Nationals I have backed the winner 4 times and had many places. Its not too difficult. Horses that stay, enjoy the going and jump well are usually in with a shout. Knowledge of the National course also comes in handy. (Last year both Amberleigh and Clan had run very well in the Beechers Chase.


Add in a sprinkling of liking the name for good measure and you can't lose, trust me...:wink

[sparkyminer]

You're forgetting the most important criteria OFF. Granny likes the colours! :)

[Fadetoblack]

I think what i said was great

[vegyjones]

I think what i said was great
There's Irish modesty for you :laugh

[Fadetoblack]

:laugh I was feeling left out :laugh

[vegyjones]

:laugh I was feeling left out :laugh
I thought it was great too FTB :D

[Fadetoblack]

I thought it was great too FTB :D

Aww thanks Veg...that cockney sympathy?

[vegyjones]

Aww thanks Veg...that cockney sympathy?
Wea in't all like those portrayed on Eastenders :laugh. In fact there are no laundarettes and villans in my street and most of the places round here have their own washing machines... well it is the 000's :laugh

[Fadetoblack]

Wea in't all like those portrayed on Eastenders :laugh. In fact there are no laundarettes and villans in my street and most of the places round here have their own washing machines... well it is the 000's :laugh

Washing machines? :doh

[vegyjones]

Washing machines? :doh
:laugh :laugh :laugh

[markkirwan]

some of the most recent winners have all had 2 letters the same next to each other

Monty's Pass 16/1
Bindaree 20/1
Papillon 10/1
Bobbyjo 10/1
Earth Summit 7/1
Lord Gyllene 14/1

I thought there would only be a couple of horses this year but no there are




Grey Abbey
Seebald
Monty's Pass
Ballycassidy
Ballyborough Rasher
Risk Accessor
Bindaree
Venn Ottery
Astonville
Forest Gunner
Spotthedifferance
Innox
Artic Copper
Hunters Tweed
Lord Atterbury
Garvivonnian
Gunner Welburn
Cassia Heights
Freetown
Winning Dream
Be My Better Half
Multeen River
Native Sessions
Boy's Hurrah

[mathare]

Does Amberleigh House count?

[manckevin]

H E D G E H U N T E R bucks that trend then :D

[Workshy]

"Ah well....my job is done well before race day so....yada yada yada..." and then he came to it "I suppose the likes of numbersixvalvarda and Jack High would be two interesting ones...." He said it with such nonchalance....


Only 4lb wrong for a half length 2nd in the Irish National, if I'd had the time to look at form I would've been on :doh (sounds Boi-ish :laugh)

[flick]

*cough* *cough*

Could it have worked yet again

[samantha1303]

Hi Flick, nice to see you making your yearly return to the forum.:hearty

[samantha1303]

Will this work again???