Gingertipsters Tips

[gingertipster]

As I have been putting my tips in other areas of this forum I am seriously considering doing this challenge thing. Looks a good concept. Although of course it does not prove anything but as said it's only a bit of fun.
At least it should keep Oldham quiet for a while.Then again it might give him more ammunition to fire at me. Anyway he wanted me to do it so here goes.
There is only one rule.

VALUE IS EVERYTHING.:rolleyes:

I shall start by explaining a little about my complicated staking plan (if you can call it a plan).
My biggest bet in theory could be £200 on something between 21/20 and 4/5. I do not bet shorter than 4/5. Smallest bet £2 on a 100/1+ shot.
Anything I believe has a 50% (true odds Evens) chance will have £150 to win if I can get a better price than Evens. Anything thought a 33% (2/1) chance that I can get better than 2/1 has £75 on it. Because £75 x 2 = £150. 25% (3/1) £50, because £50 x 3 = £150 etc. So in practice a horse I believe has a 25% chance will have £50 on it if better than 3/1 is available. Of course I take the biggest price available at the time of the bet. I never take SP as there is no knowing if the price is going to be value or not.
I can though add 33% for any horse coming from a stable in excellant form (so a 40% chance that would have £100 on then gets £33 added to the stake) a stable thought in very good form would be 20%, 0% for reasonably good form and -25% for just O.K. form. For any trainer in poor form there is NO BET. All judged from either the Racing Posts "Todays Trainers" or by their web site, clicking each trainer to see his / her 2 week record. Trainers form has been allowed for in my working out but it just (in theory at least) cuts down the losing runs.
Also, if I think the horses form looks a bit unreliable, e.g. if the horses best form came when front running in a slowly run race and could be flattered by that. -20%.
If the horse is itself unreliable,Timeform squiggle etc. NO BET.
I can have more than one bet in a race if I consider more than one is VALUE. (11 in the Grand National). In this case I will either have 1, 2, or 3 main bets and other savers or 1 main bet one half bet and some savers etc. Depending on how much value is in each bet and the prices involved.
There will not be many, if any each way bets and certainly no multiples.
Will probably start tonight for the first day of Chester 07.
Hope that is all understandable.

Ginge

[Win2Win]

It does PROVE something;
1) You can tip
2) You can handle a £1000 betting bank

Good education, not fun.

[gingertipster]

Good education and good fun Keith.

The £1000 bank is a little small, must admit do not usually use a bank as such. Just bet the amount I think is appropriate. Though better add, do not have a limitless supply. Hope I get off to a good start otherwise it could go within 5 or 6 races. "Could" maybe that should read "probably".

Ginge

[mathare]

I think your staking plan would be better if you took away the number you first thought of :)

I also think it odd that £200 is your biggest bet. Apart from the fact that I think that is much too large a percentage of the starting bank it is a fixed figure, not dependent on the bank. If the bank doubled to £2000 is your largest bet still £200? What if the bank halved to £500?

[Win2Win]

Biggest bet should be 3% of the bank, othewise risk is equal to guaranteed breaking of the bank.

[gingertipster]

Trouble is these are sums I am used to using. As I said I am not used to working with a bank as such. I would have felt better using a £2000 bank so as not to be risking so much of the bank in one race, but it aint in the rules. Reducing the stakes by half will not feel right. Will keep them as they are and hope to get off to a good start.
Might change the stakes as we go.

If some of you are say used to betting with fives, tens and twentys then move the decimal point one digit left. So a £150 bet becomes £15.00.

Ginge

[gingertipster]

First Bet

2:50 Chester
Som Tala £15 win 16/1 WHills
Dzesmin £5.25 win 37/1 Betfair
Nordwind £14.40 win 17/1 Betfair
Odiham £2 win 45/1 Betfair
Galient £9 win 5.8/1 Betfair
Enjoy The Moment £3 win 21/1 Betfair

Had bigger prices on the top 3 ante-post but did not want to aftertime.

[gingertipster]

2nd Bet

2:20 Chester
Light Shift £90 win 2.3/1 Betfair
Hanging On £9 win 11/1 Betfair
Hanging On £9 win 13/1 Betfair

[Win2Win]

Trouble is these are sums I am used to using. As I said I am not used to working with a bank as such. I would have felt better using a £2000 bank but it aint in the rules. Reducing the stakes by half will not feel right. Will keep them as they are and hope to get off to a good start.
Might change the stakes as we go.

If some of you are say used to betting with fives, tens and twentys then move the decimal point one digit left. So a £150 bet becomes £15.00.

Ginge

:splapme Their is no difference between £1000, £2000, £50,000, etc when using a % of a bank, it's the same %!!!

[paul183195]

hanging on 16/1 with bet fred

[gingertipster]

With non-runners in 2:50 I now make Som Tala 8/1 and Norwind 10/1 so extra £4 win Som Tala 10.5/1 and £3.60 Norwind 12.5/1.

Ginge

[gingertipster]

hanging on 16/1 with bet fred
You mean 1 horse has gone out since I backed it? What about the others Paul?
Three of the four main bets are steamers!

Ginge

[Win2Win]

Steamers are bad value :)

[sparkyminer]

Steamers are bad value :)

FFS don't start him off again.:splapme

[Win2Win]

:laugh :D

[bigcumba]

VALUE IS EVERYTHING.:rolleyes:

I stopped reading at that line...

[gingertipster]

Steamers are bad value :)
Steamers are bad value once they become steamers keith. Som Tala was a good bet at 16/1, a poor bet at 7/1.

Ginge

[gingertipster]

The percentages on Betfair for the races at Goodwood are not what I would have wished so far. Some working on 112%. So some of my bets may not be as good value wise as today but will not have much time in the morning (going to Goodwood) so here goes.

[gingertipster]

2:40 Goodwood
River Kirov £50 win 2/1 Betfair
Gavarnie Beau £10 win 7.6/1 Betfair

These are not my usual stakes, only half stakes so far because of possible going changes. Will decide on my main bet when I am there.

3:45 Goodwood
Royal Premiere £33 win 6.8/1
Garrusso £22 win 4.6/1



4:20 Goodwood
Lacework £43 win 5.2/1
Nadawat £27 win 7.2/1
Tarkamara £12 win 17.5/1
Colchium £4 win 22/1

Ginge

[gingertipster]

2:50 Chester
Celestial Halo £12 win 17/1

Can not resist.
Another £2 Celestial Halo 22/1
Ginge

[gingertipster]

Will do the figures for the challenge when I have more time.

But after the first day I am £132.75 up.

Ginge

[Win2Win]

Steamers are bad value once they become steamers keith. Som Tala was a good bet at 16/1, a poor bet at 7/1.

Ginge

No, it's bad value as it LOST!! :geek

[gingertipster]

2:20 Chester
Yazamaan £45 win 4.8/1
Monzante £11 win 9.5/1
Desert Dew £20 win 2.85/1

With withdrawl now make Yazamaan a 3/1 chance so extra:
Yazamaan £15 win 4.3/1
Desert Dew £7 win 2.4/1


2:50 Chester
Ask £60 win 4.3/1
The Whistling Teal £5 win 13/1

A bit worried now about where the pace is coming from. If Scorpion dos not take on Peppertree Lane this may turn out to be slowly run favouring the latter. So new bet:

Peppertree Lane £13 win 5.6/1
To come from the back in a slowly run race will be a big Ask so will leave previous selections as they are.

All bets I place here are on Betfair unless otherwise stated.

[gingertipster]

Profit on 2nd day including 17.3% rule4 for I'm Spartacus withdrawl (3:45 Goodwood) £270.18.

Making a total profit of £402.93.

[gingertipster]

4th Day Bets.

1:45 Ascot
Balkan Knight £22 win 13/1 Betfair
Akarem £11 win 11/1

2:40 Lingfield
Wake Up Smiling £110 win 1.98/1

3:15 Lingfield
Hearthstead Maison £54 win 5.6/1
Kid Mambo £15 win 4/1

3:45 Lingfield
Brisk Breeze £40 win 6/1
Sunlight £20 win 2.45/1
Gull Wing £7 win 9/1

Hope you forgive me for giving 4 horses in a 7 horse race but here is another, just can not resist the price. It has the worst chance of winning but more than 2.4% (40/1).
Shimona £2 win 41/1

Ginge

[gingertipster]

Day 3 profit including 27.8% reduction factor for withdrawl of Anna Pavlova (2:50 Chester) £70.28.

Total Profit so far £473.21.

Will provide more details of betting so far on Sunday.

[gingertipster]

Anyone know if we should include the 5% (or whatever) Betfair commission?

Ginge

[MarcusMel]

The idea is to keep it as realistic as posible. You don't have to calculate the commission drop. Just be consistant with your calculations you do.

[gingertipster]

Day 4 profit £46.80

Total Profit £520.00

Ginge

[gingertipster]

Day 1, 9th May 07.

2:20 CHESTER
£90 @ 2.3/1 Light Shift (SP 11/8)1st Return £297.00
£9 @ 11/1 Hanging On
£9 @ 13/1 Hanging On (SP 12/1)
Combined price 13/8
Combined stake £108.00
Profit £189.00

2:50 CHESTER
£15 @ 16/1 (W.Hills) Som Tala (SP 7/1)
£14.40 @ 17/1 Nordwind (SP 10/1)
£5.25 @ 37/1 Dzesmin (SP 22/1)
£9 @ 5.8/1 Galient (SP 6/1)
£2 @ 45/1 Odiham (SP 16/1)
£3 @ 21/1 Enjoy The Moment (SP 14/1) 3rd
£4 @ 10.5/1 Som Tala
£3.60 @ 12.5/1 Nordwind
Combined price 7/4
Loss £56.26

Days Stakes £164.26, Days Return £297.00, Days Profit £132.74
Balance £1132.74

[gingertipster]

2:50 CHESTER
£12 @ 17/1 Celestial Halo (SP 14/1) 3rd
£2 @ 22/1 Celestial Halo
Combined price 18/1
Loss £14.00

2:40 GOODWOOD
£50 @ 2/1 River Kirov (SP 15/8)
£10 @ 7.6/1 Garvarnie Beau (8/1)
Combined price Evens
Loss £60.00

3:45 GOODWOOD
£33 @ 6.8/1 Royal Premiere (SP 4/1) 1st (Reduction factor 17.3%) Return £218.58
£22 @ 4.6/1 Garrusso (7/2)
Combined price 9/4
Combined stake £55.00
Profit including reduction £163.58

4:20 GOODWOOD
£43 @ 5.2/1 Lacework (SP 7/2) 1st Return £266.60
£27 @ 7.2/1 Nadawat (6/1)
£12 @ 17.5/1 Tarkarama (16/1)
£4 @ 22/1 Colchium 2nd (12/1)
Combined price 13/8
Combined stake £86:00
Profit £180.60

Days Stakes £215.00, Days Return £485.18, Days Profit £217.18
Total Stakes £379.26, Total Return £782.18, Total Profit £402.92
Balance £1402.92

[gingertipster]

2:20 CHESTER
£45 @ 4.8/1 Yazamaan (SP 100/30)
£20 @ 2.85/1 Desert Dew 2nd (2/1)
£11 @ 9.5/1 Monzante (15/2)
£15 @ 4.3/1 Yazamaan
£7 @ 2.4/1 Desert Dew
Combined price 5/6
Loss £98.00

2:50 CHESTER
£60 @ 4.3/1 Ask (SP 5/2) 1st (Reduction factor 27.8%) Return £246.28
£5 @ 13/1 The Whistling Teal (9/1)
£13 @ 5.6/1 Peppertree Lane
Combined price 11/8
Combined stake £78.00
Profit including reduction £168.28

Days Stake £176.00, Days Return £246.28, Days Profit £70.28
Total Stake £555.26, Total Return £1028.46, Total Profit £473.20
Balance £1473.20

[gingertipster]

1:45 ASCOT
£22 @ 13/1 Balkan Knight (SP 10/1) 3rd
£11 @ 11/1 Akarem (7/1)2nd
Combined price 11/2
Loss £33.00

2:40 LINGFIELD
£110 @ 1.98/1 Wake Up Smiling (SP 15/8) 1st Return £327.80
Profit £217.80

3:15 LINGFIELD
£54 @ 5.6/1 Hearthstead Maison (SP 4/1)2nd
£15 @ 4/1 Kid Mambo (9/4)3rd
Combined price 15/8
Loss £69.00

3:45 LINGFIELD
£40 @ 6/1 Brisk Breeze (SP 9/2) 2nd
£20 @ 2.45/1 Sunlight (15/8)
£7 @ 9/1 Gull Wing (7/1)
£2 @ 41/1 Shimona (20/1)
Combined price 4/5
Loss £69.00

Days Stakes £281.00, Days Return £327.80, Days profit £46.80
Total Stakes £836.26, Total Return £1356.26, Total Profit £520.00
Balance £1520.00,
% profit on stakes 62.18%, Strike rate 5/12 41.67%, In first 3 11/12 91.67%
Average price taken between 8/1 and 17/2, Average price per race 5/2
Average priced winner (incl. reduction factors) between 3/1 and 100/30

[gingertipster]

Who changed my sig?

[Win2Win]

Vegy's still suffering from the last time he changed mine, he doesn't know I still deduct 50pts of Rep a week :laugh

[gingertipster]

No more bets likely until Wednesday.
Probably put them here Tuesday night.

Ginge

[gingertipster]

1:45 YORK
£20 @10/1 (Ladbrokes) Pevensey (SP 6/1)
£20.00 Loss

2:15 YORK
£45 @ 3.8/1 Treadeagar (SP 11/4)
£15 @ 16/1 Ponty Rossa (10/1) 2nd
£8 @ 41/1 Smokey Oakey (33/1)
£17 @ 5.2/1 Smookh (4/1) 1st Return £105.40
£2 @ 54/1 Gazboola (22/1)
Combined price 11/10
Combined Stake £87.00
£18.40 profit

3:15 YORK
£17 @ 25/1 Moss Vale (SP 25/1)
£30 @ 6/1 (W.Hills) Al Qasi (SP 9/2)
£21 @ 8.6/1 Rising Shadow (SP 8/1)
£6 @ 41/1 Quito (SP 22/1)
£3 @ 28/1 Welsh Emporer (SP 33/1)
Combined price 15/8
£77.00 loss

Days Stakes £184.00, Days Return £105.40, Days Loss £78.60
Total Stakes £1020.26, Total Return £1461.66, Total Profit £441.40
Balance £1441.40

[gingertipster]

Hope I have not got the 3:15 wrong.

Seems little confidence in either Al Qasi or Moss Vale. The formers trainer has a poor record with his older horses but with barely more than half a season to race should be capable of better this time around. Could be champion sprinter material. As could Moss Vale, his trainer actually has a better first time out strike rate than second tme. Had the worst draw 1 of 22 first time out last season though he is the sort physically that may need a run. 29/1 on Betfair still looks massive! Do I go in again?

Better not be too greedy.

Ginge

[gingertipster]

Welcome Milerjohn.

Hope you have a good time on this site.

Don't let the neg rep put you off.:laugh

[bigcumba]

Welcome Milerjohn.

Hope you have a good time on this site.

Don't let the neg rep put you off.:laugh

He might notice your welcome a bit more if you put in a thread he's likely to read... like the one he posted in :rolleyes:

[gingertipster]

2:15 YORK
£25 @ 4.7/1 Topatoo (7/2)(out to over 11/2 now,looks far too big) 1st Return incl. reduction factor £115.59. Went in again to make it the main bet but did not have time to put it up here.
£18 @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Portal (8/1)(hopefully will not rain too much for her) 3rd
£24 @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes)Anna Pavlova (4/6) 2nd
Combined price 8/13
Combined stake £67.00
£48.59 profit incl reduction factor

2:45 YORK
£36 @ 6.2/1 Proponent (7/1)
£40 @ 4/1 (Tote) Adagio (5/2)
£4 @ 28/1 Al Shemali 3rd (18/1)
Combined price 7/4
£80.00 Loss

2:55 SALISBURY
£18 @ 7.4/1 Island Odyssy (9/1)(possibly already too wet, out to 9/1)
£18 @ 2.45/1 Lisathedaddy (5/2)
Combined price 11/8
(Half bet until I know the going)
Believe it or not backed Moon Empress at 12/1 on course and made £177 on the race.
£36.00 loss

4:35 SALISBURY
£75 @ 4.4/1 My Love Thomas (4/1)(now down to below 11/4)
£30 @ 5/2 Cha Cha Cha 2nd (7/2)
Combined price 11/10
£105:00 Loss

(Real Days Profit £192.00 minus RF)
Days stakes £288.00, Days Return incl. RF £115.59,Mythical Days Loss £172.41
Total Stakes £1308.26, Total Return £1577.25, Total Profit £268.99
Balance £1268.99

[gingertipster]

He might notice your welcome a bit more if you put in a thread he's likely to read... like the one he posted in :rolleyes:

You following me around Bigcumba, I thought you were not interested in what I have to say. Then again you probably need some tips on how to back horses.

[bigcumba]

You following me around Bigcumba, I thought you were not interested in what I have to say. Then again you probably need some tips on how to back horses.

Checking what people are posting is part of my remit as a mod on here Ginge... which means I read your posts whether I'm interested or not. As for your last comment regarding needing tips on how to back horses.... ah you got me sussed now. :laugh

[Win2Win]

You following me around Bigcumba, I thought you were not interested in what I have to say. Then again you probably need some tips on how to back horses.

We use Rep as a guide whether to check posts or nor, so we need to verify every letter of your posts :laugh

[gingertipster]

So all of you have to look at every post do you?

Can't one do one group of threads, one another?

[mathare]

So all of you have to look at every post do you?

Can't one do one group of threads, one another?Does it matter how we do what we do?

Not all mods are available at all times so we all tend to check what we can when we can.

Plus there is a league table of bannings that all mods are trying to top :D

[counterfeit]

Any chance of an update on the last couple of days so we can see where your bank is?

[Win2Win]

Any chance of an update on the last couple of days so we can see where your bank is?

Nairobi!!!! :thumbs

[gingertipster]

2:45 YORK
£52 @ 6.2/1 Munsef (7/2)
£16 @ 10.5/1 Allegretto (13/2)
£5 @ 14/1 Geordieland 2nd (17/2)
£4 @ 23/1 Orcadian (16/1)
Combined price 2/1
£77.00 Loss

3:30 NEWBURY
£32 @ 10.5/1 Adversane (12/1)(Punters natural aversion to 2nd strings and small trainers seems to have forced the price out for Adversane (now 15/1) and Troiatiri (22/1). I make the former only 0.5% less a chance than its stable companion and the latter almost treble the 4.3% 22/1 represents)
£20 @ 8.2/1 Mujahaz (15/2)1st Return £203.20
£18 @ 14.5/1 Troiatiri (8/1)
Can't resist a further
£5 @ 15/1 Adversane
£5 @ 22/1 Troiatiri
£2 @ 8.6/1 Mujahaz (1st)
Combined price 11/4
Combined stakes £82.00
£121.20 Profit

4:40 NEWBURY
£33 @ 6.2/1 Ancient Culture (13/2)
£5 @ 6.8/1 Ancient Culture
£38.00 Loss

Days Stakes £197.00, Days Return £203.20, Days Profit £6.20
Total Stakes £1505.26, Total Return £1780.45, Total Profit £275.19
Balance £1275.19

[gingertipster]

Update on todays bets above

[vegyjones]

If Triolati should be 3 times it's current odds, surely it's a no bet as it doesn't represent value? That's the way I have so far understood things from your persepctive!

[mathare]

If Troiatiri should be 3 times it's current odds, surely it's a no bet as it doesn't represent value? That's the way I have so far understood things from your persepctive!I think Ginge is saying Triolati has a greater chance of winning than the odds represent. He thinks it should be about 7/1, not 22/1.

[counterfeit]

Nairobi!!!! :thumbs

:laugh :laugh :laugh

[vegyjones]

Ah I get it! :) Cheers Mat! Was worried I had the initerpretation of value all confused for a minute! :D

[gingertipster]

2:10 NEWBURY
£30 @ 7.4/1 Foreign Affairs (14/1)(Ooops ! Gone for a walk, made the wrong choice for the main bet? Possibly not fit for his reapearance) Dull in his coat, not fit.
£3 @ 12/1 Group Captain (8/1)3rd
Combined price 4/1
£33.00 Loss

2:45 NEWBURY
£38 @ 5/1 Ramonti (4/1) 2nd
£13 @ 3.9/1 Jeremy (4/1)
Combined price 7/4
£51.00 Loss

3:15 NEWBURY
£46 @ 6.6/1 Zaham (4/1) 1st Return £349.60
£16 @ 8.4/1 Players Please (7/1)
£11 @ 18/1 Prince Sabaah (12/1)
£3 @ 23/1 Soft Morning (16/1)
£4 @ 26/1 Duke Of Tuscany (20/1) 2nd
Combined price 7/4
Combined stakes £80.00
£269.60 Profit

5:25 NEWBURY
£38 @ 5.4/1 Cape Hawk (3/1) 2nd
£38.00 Loss

Days Stakes £202.00, Days Return £349.60, Days Profit £147.60
Total Stakes £1707.26, Total Return £2130.05, Total Profit £422.79
Balance £1422.79
% profit on stakes 24.76%, Strike Rate 36%, In First Three 84%.
Average price taken Between 8/1 and 15/2, Avg price per race Between 85/40 and 9/4
Average priced winner incl. reduction factors 4/1.

[gingertipster]

Update above.
Even better day in real money. Backed Zaaid 4/1, stood out in the paddock.

Probably will not be any more bets until Goodwood, unless I decide to go to Bath.

[Win2Win]

.....unless I decide to go to Bath.

Was wondering what the smell was in the forum :rolleyes:

[gingertipster]

8th Day, May 24th

2:00 GOODWOOD
£20 @ 8.5/1 Aegean Prince (9/2)
£4 @ 31/1 Eger Igor (20/1) 3rd
£3 @ 13/1 Al Khaleej (12/1) 2nd
£21 @ 10/1 Shot Gun (10/1)
2 @ 14/1 Al Khaleej
Combined Price 5/2
£50 Loss

2:35 GOODWOOD
£15 @ 8.4/1 Man Of Vision Non Runner
£7 @ 8.2/1 Man Of Vision
£3 @ 18/1 Broghill (10/1) 3rd
£3 Loss

3:10 GOODWOOD
£38 @ 6.2/1 So Sweet (6/1)
£6 @ 12/1 Cosmodrome (10/1) 1st Return £78.00
£3 @ 17/1 Les Fazzani (7/1)
£3 @ 7.8/1 So Sweet
Combined Price 11/4
Combined Stake £50
£28 Profit

5:30 GOODWOOD
£80 @ 2.4/1 Genari (5/2) (Did get some 2.7/1 but as it is no longer available thought it would not be right to put it up, same with Aegean Dream 2:00 some 10/1)
£7 @ 19/1 Bee Stinger (20/1) 3rd
£10 @ 9.5/1 Neardown Beauty (11/2)
£3 @ 27/1 Bee Stinger
£5 @ 54/1 Lopinot (16/1)
Combined Price 6/5
£105 Loss

Quite a few outsiders seem to be value so would not be surprised if I had my first winnerless day.

Days Stakes £208.00 Days Return £78.00 Days Loss £130.00
Total Stakes £1915.26 Total Returns £2208.05 Total Profit £292.79
Balance £1292.79

[gingertipster]

More Bets above

[gingertipster]

9th Day May 25th

2:00 GOODWOOD
£23 @ 12/1 Landucci (12/1)
£26 @ 4.9/1 Blue Java (4/1) 2nd
£15 @ 3.7/1 The Cayterers (9/2)
£5 @ 14/1 Raza Cab (10/1) (May be best to wait to back Raza as unfashionable connections mean possibly better later or on tote)
Combined Price 10/11
£69 Loss

2:35 GOODWOOD
£45 @ 4.3/1 Illustrious Blue (11/4) 1st Return £238.50
£11 @ 5.2/1 Hard Top (11/2)
£8 @ 7.6/1 Championship Point (5/1) (missed putting himin last night at over 10/1)
Combined Price 11/10
Combined Stake £64
£174.50 Profit

3:45 GOODWOOD
£27 @ 11/1 Aajel (10/1) 3rd
£23 @ 14/1 Venerable (12/1)
£25 @ 26/1 Sunbach (10/1)
(Also did Mafeking 25/1 (11/1) but price has now gone)
Combined Price 9/2
£75 Loss

Days Stakes £208 Days Return £238.50 Days Profit £30.50
Total Stakes £2123.26 Total Returns £2446.55 Total Profit £323.29
Balance £1323.29

[Jonny2621]

Interested in your fancy of Landucci Ginger as this is on my Horses to Follow list.

However in 24 runs it has 5 wins and all 5 have come at Brighton, its record there reads 5 from 9 plus 1 place

1-13111-502

Away from Goodwood its record is 0 from 15 with only 3 placings

00-06340-033460-50

Whilst it has only run once at Goodwood, unplaced, I think we have a course specialist par excellence here.

I usually lay Landucci away from Brighton. I won't be laying at this price today though.

Hope it runs out of character for you today !

good luck

[gingertipster]

Good point Jonny but my reasoning is this:
Brighton is an undulating course similar to Goodwood and Epsom. The form of his 3rd at Lingfield (AW) in October and 3rd at Epsom in 05 looks just as good as his Brighton wins.
John Hills is also in good form though not a great record on their reapearance.

[gingertipster]

10th Day May 26th

2:35 HAYDOCK
£50 @ 7.8/1 Aahayson (9/2) (Should be half that price)
£21 @ 2.45/1 Prime Defender (11/8) 1st Return £72.45
Combined Price 6/4
Combined Stake £71
£1.45 Profit

2:50 NEWMARKET
£43 @ 4.6/1 Prince Forever (8/1) 3rd
£10 @ 4.8/1 St Philip (4/1) (Oops)
£12 @ 5.6/1 St Philip
Combined Price 2/1
£65 Loss

3:05 HAYDOCK
£52 @ 4.3/1 Wannabe Posh (13/8) 2nd
£52 Loss

Days Stakes £188.00 Days Return £72.45 Days Loss £115.55
Total Stakes £2311.26 Total Returns £2519.00 Total Profit £207.74
Balance £1207.74

[gingertipster]

-

[gingertipster]

11th Day May 31st

7:15 SANDOWN
£60 @ 4/1 Pinpoint (7/2)
£28 @ 2.65/1 Mashaahed (5/2) 2nd
£11 @ 8.6/1 Mighty (8/1) 3rd
Combined Price 8/11
£99 Loss

7:50 SANDOWN
£70 @ 3/1 Sweepstake (11/4) 1st Return £280.00
£15 @ 5.4/1 Lady Avenger (6/1) 2nd
Combined Price 6/4
Combined Stake £85
£195 Profit
None of the trainers are in particularly good form. However the favourites handler is in partiularly poor form. No winner or runner up in last 28 runners. So worth taking on. Saw Sweepstake win well at Salisbury on good/soft and Hannons 2 year olds usually come on a deal for a run. Only 2 went to the far side there but subsequant races suggested little draw bias.

8:20 SANDOWN
£45 @ 4.6/1 Moss Vale (4/1) 2nd
£45 Loss

Days Stakes £229.00 Days Return £280.00 Days Profit £51.00
Total Stakes £2540.26 Total Returns £2799.00 Total Profit £258.74
Balance £1258.74

[gingertipster]

12th Day June 1st

1:40 EPSOM
£40 @ 5.4/1 Bahia Breeze (7/2) 2nd
£40 Loss
The two Chievely Park horses have the best form but neither has soft ground form. The same applies to Harvest Queen who may be an improved horse this season (from what I saw at Goodwood) so there is only one feasable option. Hopefully there will not be too many non-runners.

2:10 EPSOM
£30 @ 6.8/1 Montpellier (6/1) 2nd
£43 @ 5.4/1 Ordnance Row (9/2) 3rd
Combined Price 5/2
£73 Loss

3:25 EPSOM
£52 @ 4.4/1 Septimus (3/1) 2nd
£40 @ 1.6/1 Sixties Icon (11/8)
£9 @ 11/1 Maraahel (7/1) 3rd
Combined Price 8/15
£101 Loss

4:05 EPSOM
£13 @19/1 Simply Perfect (8/1)
£18 @ 12/1 Measured Tempo (9/1)
£4 @ 7.8/1 Dalvina (11/1)
£2 @ 9.5/1 Dalvina
£9 @ 43/1 Peeping Fawn (20/1) 2nd
Combined Price 3/1
£46 Loss
All three selections have been on the drift in recent days but on form they are the value bets. Have though reduced the stake. Simply Perfect probably will not stay the trip but is proven on a soft surface and has the best recent form in the race, therefore she is worth taking a chance with at the price.

Days Stakes £260.00 Days Return £00.00 Days Loss £260.00
Total Stakes £2800.26 Total Returns £2799.00 Total Loss £1.26
Balance £998.74

[gingertipster]

Fridays Bets above

[gingertipster]

Acapulco 130/1
Admiralofthefleet 16/1
Anton Chekov 300/1
Aqaleem 9/1
Arabian Gulf NR
Archipenko 20/1
Authorised 11/10
Eagle Mountain 10/1
Eastern Anthem 500/1
Kid Mambo 2000/1
Leander (more than 2000/1)
Lucarno 20/1
Mahler 66/1
Petara Bay (more than 2000/1)
Regime 33/1
Salford Mill 33/1
Soldier Of Fortune 20/1
Strategic Prince 130/1
Yellowstone 20/1

Those in bold are at better prices currently on betfair.

[Win2Win]

Why the hell did I click on this? :ermmm :splapme

[paul183195]

:laugh :laugh :laugh

[gingertipster]

Wow, what a day:laugh
Can't remember one like it, four 2nds at good prices (one 43/1), three thirds (saved on Nannina aswell) in 4 races.
At least the Oaks was won by old Henry.
Makes the day bearable.

13th Day June 2nd

If you want a 40/1 plus winner of the Derby, then try Yellowstone. Took 54/1 earlier today but:
4:20 EPSOM
£8 @ 45/1 Yellowstone (28/1)
Should be at least half that.
£11 @ 31/1 Admiralofthefleet (14/1)
£23 @ 12/1 Eagle Mountain (6/1) 2nd
£20 @ 13/1 Aqaleem (9/1) 3rd
£3 @ 23/1 Soldier Of Fortune (14/1)
£3 @ 45/1 Yellowstone OOPS! Can't resist another bet.
£5 @74/1 Yellowstone
Combined Price 100/30
£73 Loss

3:05 EPSOM
£188 @ Evens Blue Ksar (4/5) 2nd
£188 Loss

In real money not as bad a day as it seems, good late bet on Zaham (real days loss £1).
Also subscribed to Racing UK before June so got a years subscription when Frankie won the Derby (worth £180).

Days Stakes £261.00 Days Return £0.00 Mythical Days Loss £261.00
Total Stakes £3061.26 Total Return £2799.00 Total Loss £262.26
Balance £737.74

[gingertipster]

14th Day June 8th

2:45 GOODWOOD
£100 @ 2/1 Kings Icon 1st Return £300
£200 Profit

3:20 GOODWOOD
£33 @ 10/1 Charlies Dream 3rd
£23 @ 11.5/1 Murrin 1st Return £287.50
£8 @ 35/1 Alloro
Combined Price 4/1
Combined Stake £64
£223.50 Profit

4:30 GOODWOOD
£15 @ 16/1 Barney McCrew 1st Return £255.00
£240 Profit

5:05 GOODWOOD
£100 @ 2.2/1 Ballroom Dancer 1st Return £320.00
£220 Profit

Days Stakes £279.00 Days Returns £1162.50 DAYS PROFIT £883.50
Total Stakes £3340.26 Total Returns £3961.50 Total Profit £621.24
Balance £1621.24

[gingertipster]

My Seconditus has at last come to an end.

Bets in 4 races, 4 WINS!

Including at 11.5/1 and 16/1 winners.

I needed that, hope saturday is half as good. IT WAS!

£883.50 Profit.

[gingertipster]

15th Day June 9th

3:25 GOODWOOD
£33 @ 8.4/1 Vanderlin NON-RUNNER
£30 @ 6.2/1 Dunelight 1st Return £190.70 incl. reduction factor
£12 @ 25/1 Raptor NON-RUNNER
£160.70 Profit

4:30 GOODWOOD
£17 @ 12/1 Gleaming Spirit 2nd
£17 Loss

5:40 GOODWOOD
£52 @ 4.7/1 Ebert
£8 @ 8.2/1 Moody Tunes
£13 @4.7/1 Audience 2nd
Combined Price 6/5
£73 Loss

6:10 GOODWOOD
£67 @ 3.7/1 Dubai Dynamo Got 4/1 but that price now gone. 1st Return £291.60 incl. RF
£224.60 Profit

Days Stakes £187.00 Days Returns £482.30 incl. RFs Days Profit £295.30
Total Stakes £3527.26 Total Returns £4443.80 Total Profit £916.54
Balance £1916.54
% profit on stakes 25.98%, Strike Rate 36.54%, In First Three 92.31%
Average Price Taken 7/1, Average Price Per Race between 85/40 and 9/4
Average Priced Winner between 4/1 and 9/2

[gingertipster]

Next bets likely for Salisbury tuesday.

Another busy week ahead, hoping to go racing at least 4 days.

Ginge

[gingertipster]

2:15 SALISBURY
£60 @ 4/1 Ramblin Bob 1st Return £300
£33 @ 6.6/1 Bllinskelligs Boy 2nd
Looks a substandered maiden for the course but with no trainers involved doing particularly well with debutants I've gone with two with experience. The main bet has a poor draw but Seb should be able to get a good early position which negates that. From a stable in top form.
The supposed Hannon second string is too big a price to let go and has a descent enough draw.
£7 @ 13.5/1 An Scaribh Worth a saver, more rain will enhance its chance. Could be even better price on the tote with girl jockey and wierd sounding name, gaelic?
(2 main bets started 3/1 jfs)
Combined Price 6/4
Combined Stake £100
£200 Profit

3:15 SALISBURY
£33 @ 5.8/1 Nice To Know Saw her at Newbury, big filly, should be better for that run, had not come in her coat there. Is a value alternative to the favourite whos trainer is on a long losing run so worth opposing at a short price.
£14 @ 15/1 Up The Chimney Will improve for a considerate introduction.
Combined Price 4/1
£47 Loss

4:15 SALISBURY
£50 @ 4.4/1 Pentatonic 2nd.
Unexposed lightly raced type from a yard capable of improving an older horse. One draw back though is a possible lack of pace in the race. She can pull.
£13 @ 5.8/1 Lisathedaddy 3rd.
Again lack of pace a possible problem but from a stable beginning to find form. Looks well handicapped on all weather form.
£23 @ 10.5/1 Uig Uig looks exposed but has won off a higher mark and may well get the run of the race. She is the only runner that usually runs up with the pace so may get a soft lead, all the rest are usually held up or dropped out. (Did not front run)
Combined Price 11/8
£86 Loss

Days Stakes £233.00 Days Return £300.00 Days Profit £67.00
Total Stakes £3760.26 Total Return £4743.80 Total Profit £983.54 (26.16%)
Balance £1983.54

[gingertipster]

2:10 NEWBURY
£25 @ 6.4/1 Captain Esteem
£12 @ 9/4 Alwaabel 2nd
Combined Price 5/4
£37 loss

2:40 NEWBURY
£20 @ 7/1 Zifaaf Did get some 8s
£9 @ 2.3/1 Circle Of Love 2nd
Combined Price 11/8
£29 loss

3:15 NEWBURY
£45 @ 5.2/1 Look So NON-RUNNER
£15 @ 4.6/1 Oceana Gold 3rd
£9 @ 13/1 Tifernati
Combined Price 3/1
£24 loss

3:50 NEWBURY
£30 @ 6.8/1 Thiella
I backed Treat for the 1000 Guineas but the stable has had only one win in its last 28 runners (excluding yesturday) so is worth taking on at odds on. Basaata is interesting but Thiella is the bet for now.
£30 loss

4:55 NEWBURY
£56 @ 3.9/1 Summer Dancer 1st Return £250.60 (incl. RF) Is the obvious one in a race where not many are in form with conditions to suit. Any rain would be a help for the main selection.
£9 @ 8.8/1 Tipsy Prince
£16 @ 14.5/1 Bluebelle Dancer NON-RUNNER
Combined Price 9/4
Combined Stake £65
£185.60 Profit (incl. Reduction factor)

5:25 NEWBURY
£43 @ 5.8/1 Mujahaz
£40 @ 7/1 Calzaghe Gone in again at 8.4/1 this morning, I make it an 18%, 9/2 chance! Should be able to box clever early then hit them with a turn of foot.
£8 @ 10.5/1 Sunley Peace 3rd
Combined Price 7/4
£91 loss

Have reduced some stakes for the moment due to poor liquidity / possible changes to going.

Days Stakes £276.00 Days Return £250.60 Days Loss £25.40
Total Stakes £4036.26 Total Return £4994.40 Total Profit £958.14 (23.74%)
Balance £1958.14

[gingertipster]

6:50 GOODWOOD
£50 @ 5.2/1 Viva La Flag (OOPS! Got to go in again) 3rd
£8 @ 11/1 Viva La Flag
The fav Dream Of Fortune may well be able to improve on its debut form significantly but needs to (should be fav but is too short). The two selections have better form and probably can improve a bit on that.
£33 @ 11.5/1 Royal Secrets 1st Unfortunately Dream Of Fortune was a non-runner taking out 43.2%. Return £248.56
Combined Price 7/2
Combined Stake £91
£157.56 Profit

7:25 GOODWOOD
£75 @ 7/2 (Fred Done) Califoria Laws Only just worked the race out. Missed the very best price but still very good value. Best on AW surface but his mark reflects that. Has improved on the fibresand since running on turf, so seems likely to improve on his best turf form.
£25 @ 10.5/1 Binnion Bay improved a little last time (AW). Below form penultimate start (turf) but that was at 6 furlongs. Probably better 7f / 1m now and run well time before on turf.
£9 @ 12/1 Ivory Place 1st Return £117.00 Might not act on soft surface if the ground changes, might not stay the trip on soft ground (more of a test) but odds make it worthy of a saver. Might be a non-runner.
Combined Price 13/8
Combined Stake £109
£8 Profit

8:00 GOODWOOD
£30 @ 8.6/1 Six Of Diamonds (unlucky 4th)
£33 @ 7.8/1 Samorra (not get a run)
Combined Price 7/2
£63 loss

Days Stakes £263.00 Days Return £365.56 Days Profit £102.56
Total Stakes £4299.26 Total Return £5359.96 Total Profit £1060.70 (24.67%)
Balance £2060.70

[Mattw07]

Nice profit at goodwood again, well done :)

missed the 1st race but got Ivory Place at 26/1 just before the off.

[gingertipster]

Well done Matthew 26/1 is a big price for a horse described by Timeform last time out as "should remain of interest once reassesed". 16/1 was the best I saw on course. I had him down as a 7/1 chance on good-firm / good.

Hope your bet was your main one not just a saver like mine.

[gingertipster]

2:00 SALISBURY
£100 @ 100/30 Inchmahome From an in form stable. Looks to be the only horse capable of improvement. This morning Pocketwood is a non-runner but the selection has still gone on the drift. Can't resist.
£20 @ 3.8/1 Inchmahome Should be half that. Make that double!
£120 loss

3:00 SALISBURY
£13 @ 28/1 Night Prospector NON-RUNNER
£16 @ 19/1 Makabul 2nd Best runs have come at 5 furlongs on a soft surface so if the rains come could go close in optimum conditions. However, will need to break better than he has rescently.
Does not look as if it is going to rain sufficiently.
£16 loss

3:30 SALISBURY
£10 @ 35/1 The Trader Rain would also help The Trader, capable of running well on sound surface but more consistant on soft. Because he often runs his best races in France it seems the British public under estimate his chance. Stable not in great form but older horses are not as suspect to poor stable form. Probably needed his reappearance. Should be around a quarter of current price.
£14 @ 13/1 Pivotal Point Might need the run, might not want any rain but could still be pulled out if it were too soft. Price means worth the chance.
£15 @ 2.15/1 Sakhee's Secret Do have some 2.3/1 but as that is not now available have made it the saver. If I can get more 9/4 this improving 3 year old could still be the main bet. Saw him at Newbury, massive backside to him. May eventually be capable of taking on the best.
£40 @ 2.8/1 Sakhee's Secret 1st Return £199.25
£10 @ 12/1 Pivotal Point
Combined Price 13/8
Combined Stake £89
£110.25 Profit

4:00 SALISBURY
£100 @ 1.8/1 What A Treasure Weak race with few in form let alone capable of improvement. What A treasure the exception. Rain did not come, could not reproduce the form.
£12 @ 8.8/1 Rogue 2nd First try at 7 furlongs could bring about a return to form so merits a saver.
Combined Price 6/5
£112 loss

Days Stakes £337.00 Days Return £199.25 Days loss £137.75
Total Stakes £4636.26 Total Returns £5559.21 Total Profit £922.95 (19.9%)
Balance £1922.95

[gingertipster]

2:30 ROYAL ASCOT
£15 @ 15/1 Bob's Surprise
£6 @ 79/1 Greek Mythology
£4 @ 49/1 Swiss Franc 2nd
Combined Price 10/1
£25 loss

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
£23 @ 15/1 Tax Free
£19 @ 14.5/1 Beauty Is Truth
£10 @ 11/1 Enticing Enticing might yet be the main bet if the rain stays away.
£7 @ 12/1 Benbaun
£7 @ 10/1 Enticing Judging from the going stick reading and forecast should not be too bad. With so many newspaper tipsters going for her it has forced me into the bet earlier than I would have wished.
£10 @ 10/1 Enticing (Corals)
£5 @ 9.5/1 Enticing The time of the first race suggests it is on the firm side.
Combined Price 9/4
£81 loss

3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£33 @ 7/1 Excellant Art 1st Return £264
£7 @ 22/1 Duke Of Marmalade 2nd
£3 @ 15/1 Creachadoir
£2 @ 24/1 Duke Of Marmalade
£9 @ 18/1 Creachadoir
Combined Price 7/2
Combined Stake £54
£210 Profit

4:20 ROYAL ASCOT
£40 @ 5.8/1 Ramonti 1st Return £272
£17 @ 17/1 Racinger
£3 @ 119/1 Notability
Combined Price 4/1
Combined Stake £60
£212 Profit

Days Stakes £220.00 Days Return £536.00 Days Profit £316.00
Total Stakes £4856.26 Total Returns £6095.21 Total Profit £1238.95 (25.5%)
Balance £2238.95

[gingertipster]

Another bet above

[gingertipster]

3:45 Ascot
The most likely result is a win for either Cockney or Dutch, I make it a 56% chance. However, The fav did not beat Creachdoir by far in the Ire Guinees and 2 out was going just as well. Excellant Art in my opinion would have won the French race fairly easily had he got through and is the type sure to improve as a 3yo. There seems a lack of horses to go from the front in todays race. Both the favs can pull a bit and are held up. Coming from the back in a slowly run race is asking a lot too. Marmalade is possibly the most likely to be ridden prominently though if it turns into a sprint Hes A decoy would have no chance.
There have been studies to suggest where two horses meet again it pays to back against the one who should win. This is because the betting public discounts the one "worse off" and is allowed to go off at too big a price. You do not win as often but overall you make a profit.

4:20 Ascot
Is the real George going to turn up, on form he is actually value at current prices. But is he still capable of that form after stud duties. Mores to the point will he be in the right frame of mind to handle the hurly burly of Royal Ascot. I was a bit surprised Godolphin seem to have put a pacemaker in as Ramonti seems best allowed to dictate. Suppose they know what they are doing. I thought Ramonti was a little below form in the Lockinge and can improve. Godolphin have won Group 1s before with pacemakers who are around 5 or 6 lbs below the grade usually needed to win. Notability fits the bill. Racingers form is also not quite good enough but he is improving. Hopefully the three selections will not take each other on.

[gingertipster]

2:30 Royal Ascot
£19 @ 12.5/1 Tariq 1st Return £255.28 (incl. 18.2% RF)
£20 @ 1.56/1 US Ranger 2nd
£10 @ 4/1 Major Cadeaux NON-RUNNER
£4 @ 9.5/1 Tariq
£5 @ 1.3/1 US Ranger
Combined Price 11/10
Combined Stake £48
£207.28 Profit

3:05 Royal Ascot
£67 @ 3.7/1 Satwa Queen 2nd
£24 @ 2.9/1 Nannina 1st Return £90.89 (incl. 3.9% RF)
Combined Price £11/10
Combined Stake £91
£0.11 loss

3:45 Royal Ascot
£67 @ 11/4 (corals) Manduro 1st Return £251.25
£43 @ 5/1 Notnowcato 3rd
Combined Price 5/4
Combined Stake £110
£141.25 Profit

Days Stakes £249.00 Days Return £597.42 Days Profit £348.42
Total Stakes £5105.26 Total Returns £6692.63 Total Profit £1587.37 (31.1%)
Balance £2587.37

[gingertipster]

2:30 Ascot
US Ranger has by far the best form and is just about value at around 6/4 or 13/8. He did not seem to get home in the Guineas (has won well over 1 mile), bit below his best. Still has the scope to make a top class racehorse. As could Major Cadeaux, one of my 10 to follow bankers. Sore after the Guineas, another that appeared not to get home. Any easing of the ground will not be against these two. Tariq though is the main bet. An impressive winner of his debut on soft ground. May not want it too soft tomorrow though as the less emphasis on stamina the better. Showed improved form in a slowly run 7f Newmarket listed race. If staying a truly run 7f he can improve again but needs to. Major Cadeaux and Tariq were 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry last season. The pace looks to be in stalls 1, 6, 13 and 16. Including first 2 selections. The others look either out of form or not good enough, Chariots Of Fire possibly best of them.

3:05 Ascot
Put simply, Satwa Queen is over priced. I just about make her favourite. She acts on good-firm and soft. Below form on reappearance but held up in a slowly run race. There are at least 3 in todays field who like to race prominently so it should be a fair or good pace. Wasseema is best from the front, Bahia Breeze and Expensive are usually somewhere near the pace too. My saver bet Nannina is a big danger to the selection on a sound surface, had excuses last time (too fresh on soft surface). She has Royal Ascot form too.

[gingertipster]

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
£100 @ 1.72/1 All My Loving 2nd
£100 loss

3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£27 @ 6.6/1 Sergeant Cecil
£3 @ 99/1 Le Miracle 3rd
£32 @ 1.96/1 Sergeant Cecil (place) It's less than each way place but I would rather have the bigger price for the win bet.
Combined Price (excluding place) 6/1
£62 loss

4:20 ROYAL ASCOT
£21 @ 12/1 Shmookh
£9 @ 27/1 Dubai Twighlight
£20 @ 5.6/1 Colorado Rapid
£7 @ 10/1 Ekhtiaar
£5 @ 13.5/1 Shmookh
£2 @ 33/1 Dubai Twighlight
Combined Price 15/8
£64 loss

4:55 ROYAL ASCOT
£30 @ 8.4/1 Al Shemali 2nd
£15 @ 20/1 Trinity College
£15 @ 4.2/1 Zaham 1st Return £118.94 (incl. 7.9% RF)
£8 @ 9.5/1 Desert Dew 3rd
£6 @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Supersonic Dave
£2 @ 24/1 Trinity College
£10 @ 3.9/1 Zaham
Combined Price 10/11
Combined Stake £86
£32.94 Profit

Days Stake £312.00 Days Return £118.94 Days loss £193.06
Total Stakes £5417.26 Total Return £6811.57 Total Profit £1394.31 (25.7%)
Balance £2394.31

[gingertipster]

New Bet in 3:05 above

[gingertipster]

3:05 Ascot
All My Lovings form is head and shoulders above anything else and is improving rapidly. The Oaks third was on good-soft but her Chester run was her best to that point too (good-firm). I see Tom Segal reckons the family don't go on but the example given Quarter Moon was a small filly. The selection is a big inexperieced sort. The type to improve throughout the season. Her form is good enough to win most if not all rescent runnings of this race and there does not look much to beat. Saw Cosmodrome at Goodwood, nice improving filly but not sure to get the trip or act on a firm surface. Silkwood unlikely to stay, Dalvina ran in the Oaks as though it was more than just the ground wrong (if right would be a danger, big if). Should put more money on really but have enough staked today.

3:45 Ascot
Yeats is the probable winner and deserves to be odds on but not that short. Sergeant Cecil looks probable to be placed and 13/2 win and almost evens the place looks the bet. Hoping for "the miracle" to happen with Le Miracle at 99/1. Had a progressive profile last season when he was a close 3rd to the main selection in the Cadran so proven at the trip and on the ground (unlike many). Soft going against him last time out. Thought about putting up Baddam as an each way with his Royal Ascot / firm ground / extreme distance record but trainers form a worry. Also thought about Geordieland for the place only but it looks as if many others had the same idea and is too short.

4:20 Ascot
Smookh looks over-priced, I see some judges think he might not stay the extra furlong. I think he may well improve for it. Has looked to be tieing up late but it could be just idling infront. As such it is difficult for the handicapper to get a grip on him. I was told by one of Barry Hills stable lads prior to his last run that a big run was expected from Dubai Twighlight and so it proved. Not quite getting home over 10 furlongs but doing very well coming from off the pace in a slowly run race. Comes down to a mile now. Agree with everything Pricewise says about Colorado Rapid. Ekhtiaar was unlucky at Epsom though everyone saw that and stable in cracking form. Artimino is a danger to all but is a false price due to stables winner of the race last year.

4:55 Ascot
Zaham and Al Shemali look the best bets in a race without many improvers. Trinity College is an over-priced 2nd string of Aiden O'Brien though his best form has a questionable look to it. Supersonic Dave ran poorly last time at 1 mile but is much better over this trip. Stable was on a 40 or 50 losing run then, quite a bit better now. Desert Dew is another possible improver but did not find much under pressure last time. Kid Mambo ran a great race in the Derby but looked a stayer, if I owned him he would run in the Vase (2m) not 1m2f. With him there it is sure to be very fast pace.

[Merlin]

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£27 @ 6.6/1 Sergeant Cecil
£32 @ 1.96/1 Sergeant Cecil (place) It's less than each way place but I would rather have the bigger price for the win bet.
[/B]

Ladbrokes are 1/3rd a place...6/1 was available...

After commision you are worst off...

[gingertipster]

You are right Merlin but 6/1 was not available when I put the bet up. Not that it mattered. Ran awful.

At least I had a run for my money with the 99/1 shot in 3rd.

[gingertipster]

Thought better get on here quickly with my first bet as I think the price will not last long.

3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£42 @ 6/1 Mi Emma 2nd Seems the only one of the principals that usually races at or near the pace. Even Beo may not be as handy as usual as she idled badly on her last 2 starts. Warrents a saver though. Scarlet runner is the only front runner I could find and it is in her best interests to make a slow gallop as possible. She appeared not to stay a truely run mile in our Guineas. Therefore with Ascots new round course being so difficult to come from the rear in anything but a strongly run race, it's asking a lot of Darjina and Rahiyah.
£15 @ 3.1/1 Finscael Beo
£2 @ 109/1 Scarlet Runner Did think about trading Scarlet back in running, as a filly who travels well and may not get home she could trade at around 9/1 three out especially if given an easy lead.
£2 @ 3/1 Finscael Beo
£4 @ 18/1 (place) Scarlet Runner
Combined Price (excluding place) 6/4
£65 loss

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
£60 @ 4.7/1 Salford Mill Salford was only beaten just over a length by Lucarno yet is double the price, Yellow is 5 times the price for 3 lengths though he does not have the scope for further improvement of the other two. D.Elsworth is in just as good a form as J. Gosden. My main concern for Salford Mill is that his jockey will leave him with too much to do (usually held up). There are three runners who like to be up there (including the fav) so it should be truly run. Harlands chance would be better with rain and could improve significantly upped in trip.
This was a foolish bet, should have given more importance to the weather forecast (predicted rainfall) Salford was Known not to like soft conditions. Also two of the front runners were going up in trip so unlikely to want a truly run race.
£4 @ 16.5/1 Yellowstone 3rd
£5 @ 13/1 Harland
Combined Price 9/4
£69 loss

4:55 ROYAL ASCOT
£24 @ 13.5/1 Veracity 2nd
£10 @ 7/1 Mahler 1st Return £96
£2 @ 7/1 Mahler
£6 @ 14.5/1 Brisk Breeze
£45 @ 5.4/1 Serengeti 4th
£2 @ 219/1 Sunley Peace 5th
Combined Price 11/8
Combined Stake £89
£7 Profit
I saw Serengeti win a 10 furlong class 3 handicap at Goodwood. Pick of the paddock but after a furlong he looked in trouble, pushed along from the start. He did not look a likely winner 3 out either yet won easily by 7 lengths. Should improve for the significant step up in trip. Bred to stay 12 furlongs but his temperament (lazy but genuine) should allow him to stay 2 miles. Hope he is able to be ridden prominently. Veracity is bred for this, by one staying influence out of a mare who was by another. Can show bags of improvement at todays trip though needs to. The other three are just too big a price to leave out. Have included Sunley Peace, he needs to improve 20 odd pounds to win but is bred similarly to Veracity, going half a mile further and his trainer is in fantastic form. Don't get me wrong I only make him a 1.5% chance myself 66/1.

Days Stakes £223.00 Days Return £96.00 Days Loss £127.00
Total Stakes £5640.26 Total Return £6788.63 Total Profit £1148.37 (20.4%)
Balance £2148.37

[gingertipster]

2:30 ROYAL ASCOT
£41 @ 5.2/1 Double Attack
£10 @ 7.4/1 Maze 1st Return £84
£19 @ 3/1 Feared In Flight 3rd
£4 @ 18/1 Ramoni Chase
£2 @ 39/1 Meydan Dubai
Combined Price 4/6
Combined Stake £76
£8 Profit

3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
£18 @ 10.5/1 Admirals Cruise
£13 @ 16/1 Blue Bajan
£12 @ 20/1 (B365) Mighty 3rd (20/1 was available at 21:00 friday, not saturday morning, (pricewise) though did take 21/1 on exchanges at around 22:00).
Combined Price 4/1
£43 loss

3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
£24 @ 2.45/1 Miss Andretti
I see Corals are Offering 12/1 Al Qasi and 20/1 Soldiers Tale so will say those prices or the best early price if bigger.
£23 @ 12/1 (corals) Al Qasi
£14 @ 20/1 (Corals) Soldiers Tale 1st Return £294
£20 @ 13.5/1 Magnus
Combined Price 21/20
Combined Stake £81
£213 Profit

Days Stakes £200.00 Days Return £378.00 Days Profit £178.00
Total Stakes £5840.26 Total Returns £7166.63 Total Profit £1326.37 (22.7%)
Balance £2326.37
% Profit On Stakes 22.7%, Strike Rate 38.82%, In First Three 88.24%
Avg Price Taken between 7/1 and 15/2, Avg Per Race between 85/40 and 9/4
Avg Priced Winner 9/2

[gingertipster]

2:30 Ascot
Was going to put Maze up as the main bet but am concerned about a horse by Dr Fong acting on Soft. Chose Double Attack instead, by a staying influence Peintre Celebre out of a middle distance filly she should be suited by a test of stamina and may well lead (usually an advantage on soft, particularly when rain is falling at or near the off time). Feared In Flight is a worthy fav (by a horse with the best conformation I've seen, Hawk Wing) won his maiden in a fast time and should build on that. Ramona Chase could improve dramatically as he is bred for stamina yet finished 2nd at 5f on debut. Saw Meydan Dubai run at Goodwood. From a yard that rarely has a 2yo win first time out. Was clear pick of the paddock and ran a promising race after being well backed. Could come on a great deal for the run. Bred to stay this trip, to me physically he did look more a sprinting type though. The rain did not arrive until after the race, Maze won.

3:45 Ascot
If Miss Andretti is in the same form then end of story, she is proven on ground and trip. It's just a matter of how much tuesday took out of her. That also applies to Magnus who finished behind the filly but is still improving. Takeover Targt ran below form last year when running for the second time in a week so is opposed. As is Amadeus Wolf on stable form and Asset on the soft ground. Al Qasi is proven on the going, ran OK on his reappearance and had a progressive profile last season. Soldiers tale looked open to improvement a couple of seasons ago but minor injuries have got in the way. Went well on his reappearance before a poor run last time. However, that was on a firm surface and he is far better on soft. 20/1 looks massive.

3:05 Ascot
Scorpions group one penalty makes him vulnerable and is not as far infront of the others as the betting suggests. He can fret away his chance so the hurly burly of Royal Ascot is not ideal. Maraahel is a tricky ride and runs well on good-soft but not softer. Also I am not sure if he stays a truly run 12f on soft. Those 2 have the best chance of winning but not value at current prices. Admirals Cruise is proven on soft, stays well and on his best form is not far behind the principals. The problem is he aint that consistant, sometimes finds little and is from an out of form stable. His price though allows me to overlook this. Blue Bajan was only just beaten by Maraahel last time, that flatters him but is still improving. If he stays the trip could outspeed them. Mighty is just a favourite of mine, genuine and consistant but unproven on the ground. Should not be good enough if the best horses run to form but worth risking at the price. Hopefully he might get an easy lead.

[Mattw07]

Nice profit for the 5 days Ginge, especially the 1st 2 days, Well Done..

[gingertipster]

Thanks Matt,

Got a 50/1 ante-post tip for you.

2008 2000 GUINEAS
£10 @ 50/1 River Proud (Tote) I've had £20 on but thought it would not fit in to the staking plan. Just sit and watch the price tumble, then lay it back. I saw it at Newbury, the best looking two year old i've seen for some time. So much so I had a very rare bet on an unraced two year old at 9/1. It pulverised them beating a decent field by an easy 5 lengths. I predict it will half in price within a couple of weeks and be much less than that after it runs again. It is related to duel Breeders Cup mile winner Da Hoss and seems to have a very good temperament.

[gingertipster]

Next bets likely for Newbury although there is a possible ante-post bet for the July Cup.

[gingertipster]

Darley July Cup:
£43 @ 13/2 (W.Hills) Sakhee's Secret
As I said before this horse ran at Salisbury I think it is capable of taking on the best. And he beat a very good field with a terrific burst of speed there, going clear in no time at all. If this performance was on a grade one track, on mainstream TV he would be a lot shorter. Currently people want to back him at just over 11/2 on betfair, yet 13/2 is available at time of writing with Hills.

[vegyjones]

Thanks Matt,

Got a 50/1 ante-post tip for you..


Best price appears to be 25's!

Racing Post says you can get 50's at Stan James, but he isn't in their ante-post betting for the 2000 guineas!

[gingertipster]

The 50/1 went with Stan James a few days ago but I rung Tote yesturday and they gave me 50/1 even though they were not officially betting on it yet. You have to ask them to give you a price Vegy.

[gingertipster]

Having got in an arguement on what is and what is not a pro bet in another section, it has slowed me down in putting my bets up. Two bets I would have advised were Geestring and Lush. 7:05 and 7:30 Newbury but the prices I have taken are not available now. So can not reccommend a bet.

[Win2Win]

50/1 Now that is BAD VALUE, as statistically out of the 100's entered only around 20 make it, lots of unknown form, risk of injury, illness, doesn't progress over the winter, etc, it's price should be more than 50/1

[gingertipster]

Day 23 June 25th
Geestring has once again gone out to a backable price so...

7:05 NEWBURY
£67 @ 3.1/1 Geestring 2nd placed 1st Both horses were allowed to go off at big prices 5/1 and 11/2.
£17 @ 4.4/1 Sakhacity 3rd

7:35 NEWBURY
£90 @ 1.4/1 Lush With a few non-runners Lush now looks an odds on chance to me. But as it is dangerous to back short priced horses on very soft ground I have reduced the stake.

Will do profit /loss etc when I know reduction factors

[gingertipster]

Day 24 June 26th

2:10 SALISBURY
£109 @ 1.7/1 Drastic Measure
£15 @ 7.8/1 Katrina Bee
Combined Price 21/20
£124 Loss

2:40 SALISBURY
£10 @ 20/1 Rustic Flame 1st Return £210
£200 Profit

3:10 SALISBURY
£27 @ 9.5/1 Hi Calypso 1st Return £283.50
£27 @ 14/1 Algarade
Combined Price 11/2
Combined Stake £54
£229.50 Profit

4:10 SALISBURY
£60 @ 4.1/1 Apex 3rd
£24 @ 6.6/1 Apply Dapply
£15 @ 5.6/1 Pentecost
Combined Price 21/20
£99 loss

Days Stakes £287.00 Days REturn £493.50 Days Profit £206.50