System Research Help

[jackster109]

Hi

When researching systems there may be 5 - 10 years data available. If the system shows that over the last 5 years, that only the last 2 have made profit.

Could this be due to the fact that trainers have improved with better facilities, training techniques etc.

From previous thread of my mine, I know using the exchanges instead of the mainstream bookies could make profit.

The system that I have researched has made profit over the last 5 years using estimated Betfair prices, but only 2 using the SP.

Also what is considered a good SR and ROI.

Thanks

Jackster

[Street cry]

2 years is not great but the compliance with current trends could mean that it will be profitable over the next few years , if u want to post the rules i could put em through rsb if u want to get a better picture for ya cheer ssc

[jackster109]

cheers mate

what I have been looking at is the how often 7 day winners win again on the turf and aw.

I was using Adrian Masseys database, and using different varibles, racetype, age, sp pos found that the last 2 years were showing betterr profit/ or chance of profit than say 3-5 years ago.

I know that the database is not as good as RSB, due to the fact you can't really select 7 day winners. The closest option you have is 7-9 winners, so I can't really weed out the 8-9 day winners.

[Jonny2621]

I must admit I shy away from systems that dont dont show profitability over 5 years plus. Its easy for 'systems' to be profitable on odd years if there is a big odds winner for instance that distorts the stats. I prefer to see consistency over a longer period for my own peace of mind :wink. If you download Keiths Members Systems results for instance you'll see consistent year on year profitability, that's the secret in my humble opinion.

Its each to their own vis a vis ROI and strike rate. Some of the guys have systems posting on this forum with 15-20% S/Rates but a higher and more volatile ROI while others prefer 50-60% S/Rates and a lower but more predictable ROI. It comes down to what you are comfortable with in terms of losing runs. It's hard, when you're starting out, to take 15-20 losing bets in a row if your system has a low S/Rate.

Bear in mind also the 20% better odds on Betfair isn't a hard and fast rule. If you are following a high strike rate system based on selections at lower odds I'd be looking for 10+% better odds on Betfair over the longer term ( I have 11.86% over 300+ members NH bets for instance). If youre backing 16-1 shots or higher, then Betfair can offer more than 100% higher odds. Worth bearing in mind.

Good luck mate

[Win2Win]

If your using a 50%+ SR system, you can get lower than SP on Betfair on a number of horses that are odds-on.

[Jonny2621]

I can't print out all the details on the 7 day winners Jack as thats in the members section at Flatstats and it wouldnt be right to post them outside that site without their permission.

However on both turf and all weather this idea has been mostly loss making over the last 10 years with 2 or 3 years profitable. Exclude longshots over 20-1 and obviously the ROI and S/R improve greatly as it does if you ignore fillies on the all weather but I cant see anything in the stats that has appeal without having to add too many filters and thus running the risk of back-fitting the stats to make them work.

[Jonny2621]

If your using a 50%+ SR system, you can get lower than SP on Betfair on a number of horses that are odds-on.

Oh yes, forgot the odds on ones, often Betfair odds are rubbish on those, especially after commission comes off.

[jackster109]

ok cheers guys