einherjar
22nd May 2007, 14:54
I had an idea about turning the 'lay the favourite' system into something different and I was wondering if anyone has any experience with this.
Instead of laying the favourite, back all the other runners, as long as the book % without the favourite is lower than 90%.
The stakes would have to be weighted, and depending on the size of the bank the high priced outsiders would have to have the minimum bet of £2 with the lower priced horses staked to return a smallish profit (between 5-10%).
The reason I ask is that I've been paper trading on laying the favourites and I've noticed that the outsiders often win the races I lay. So I was thinking that as long as the strike rate is good enough this method would return a lot more profit but for a higher risk.
Any thoughts? Is this a silly idea?
Just to clarify I'm not picking the favourites based on a system according to price, but more on looking at the form, trainer and jockeys history along with some other factors.
Instead of laying the favourite, back all the other runners, as long as the book % without the favourite is lower than 90%.
The stakes would have to be weighted, and depending on the size of the bank the high priced outsiders would have to have the minimum bet of £2 with the lower priced horses staked to return a smallish profit (between 5-10%).
The reason I ask is that I've been paper trading on laying the favourites and I've noticed that the outsiders often win the races I lay. So I was thinking that as long as the strike rate is good enough this method would return a lot more profit but for a higher risk.
Any thoughts? Is this a silly idea?
Just to clarify I'm not picking the favourites based on a system according to price, but more on looking at the form, trainer and jockeys history along with some other factors.