opinions?

[imranali]

i thought this would be a better thread to post my qn in... pls help

hi all, i am new here, there is so much info, i do not know where to start!!!

first off i want to say that bigmassy's favorite of favorite4s system has caught my eye bcos he managed to nearly triple his bankroll in a few mths...

i have couple of questions, i will sincerely appreciate if kind souls in here could give a hand or guidance

1)i have a bankroll of 5000, which i am prepared to lose and consider separate from my savings and needs. if i were to choose 5 systems, which showed the most promise in the yesteryears, which 5 would be them, either bak or lay?

2)due to my busy schedule, i am not always able to bet on betfair befoire a race. Looking at this followig page, http://www.runningforprofit.co.uk/ it states that

((You need to ask yourself which bank, building society, pension, ISA, investment fund will pay you £107,53.50 for a deposit of only £200 after 8 years? These examples are based on a 10% overbet, and 5% commission on the exchanges for every bet. If you used a normal bookmaker, over the same time period you would profit £13,049.99 at SP. Spot the difference? This is why professional gamblers use the betting exchanges.))


can anyone tell me mathematically, why the 10% difference in prices of sp and betfair lead to such a difference in profits?? 200 pounds turn into 107,000 with betfair prices but only 13000 at sp prices? This leads to my next question, which is, since the results in the spreadsheets are calculated to be sp prices + 10% extra, can i simply make use of the Centrebet site which offers the NEXT best price OVER sp? is this the same as 10% overlay as shown on spreadsheets?

[TheOldhamWhisper]

...site which offers the NEXT best price OVER sp? is this the same as 10% overlay as shown on spreadsheets?

Only if the average price of the selections is 10/1 or better.

e.g. Next best price over SP for 5/4 (for example) would be 11/8. If the prices are in decimal, you need to find out what the 'next price, is from (say) 1.60. Is it 1.61 or 1.70?

Having checked the site you mention, you should be aware that they are based in Australia and unless you are a resident of that country, there may be restrictions in place. Be sure you not only check the site's Terms and Conditions for non-Australian citizens but also find out any Country and State Laws which may apply. This is good advice for anyone using non-UK betting sites.

[MattR]

can anyone tell me mathematically, why the 10% difference in prices of sp and betfair lead to such a difference in profits?? 200 pounds turn into 107,000 with betfair prices but only 13000 at sp prices?

It's the compound effect of % staking. With each extra win the bank rises more than it would with the SP price and therefore the next stake (if using a stake taht is a % bank as it does in those examples and is advised) is that bit higher than it would be at SP, so the compound effect of that over those years leads to a large difference.

You won't always beat SP on betfair, and the closer to odds on it is the margin of % difference will on average be smaller. If you have a system that has 10/1 + SP winners (although this will be a lower strike rate and prone to long losing runs) you will find you can beat SP by anything from 20% to 100% and on occasion more. Of course if the price comes out you can still get under SP on those too but in general you will beat it fairly comfortably.





Oldham,

Centre Bet are fine, I've had an account with them for a couple of years with no problems. Haven't really used them for horses but mostly football.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

...
Centre Bet are fine, I've had an account with them for a couple of years with no problems. Haven't really used them for horses but mostly football.

Thanks Matt. Always better to be on the safe side. I've heard far too many horror stories to take them all at trust. (I have a couple of small offshore accounts myself - but I had them contact me direct by phone to ensure their validity before making an investment - got an extra 100% on top of the usual incentives too :D)

[imranali]

hi matt, thx for answering my 2nd quesion, its all making sense now, but my first question is still unanswered and i cant start on the betting as such...

i noticed the most profitable systems were nh win sytsems were muc much more profitable thsn the flat win systems... so i am thinkinh of running 4 nh sysems with my 4000 unit bankroll.... should i be including laying systems? any ideas what the MOST profitable laying systm has been so far around here?

[imranali]

i noticed the FREE golden lay is more profitable than most of the member lays? can someone correct me on that?

[Win2Win]

i noticed the FREE golden lay is more profitable than most of the member lays? can someone correct me on that?

Golden Lays have made NO profit since January.

The NH systems appear to make more as they have been running for around 3 years, whereas the flat systems are new and started this season.

Your starting banks are to high. £200 MAX for beginners. So you can do all 10Member's systems. Keep the change, you can add to the banks in 3 months when you know what you're doing, and how good I am. :)

It is a MUST you use Betfair. As you can see by the spreadsheets, it improves long term profits more than any other service. Nothing wrong with putting bets on at midday, every day.

Their are bots that place bets, Betfair do a free one, some other charge monthly. If you want to be specifc, you use Betangel Pro, and program what you want in VBA.

[imranali]

forgive my ignorance once again, u mentioned that the flat systems just started this season, but when i downloaded theire results spreadsheet, seems to me that they have been around since 2001-2002?

2)i also have 4000 singapore dollars which is around 1300 pounds...given this, i can run around six systems of 200 pounds each.... i wish to be a wee bit more selective than simply playing all ten systrms... hope to have ur guidance on which six systems i should be embarking on....

[Win2Win]

They started LIVE for members this season.

You never said S$. Try £150/ starting banks then & do 8 systems. The more yuo do, the more you spread the risk. Do the 2 monthly, and 3 from flat/NH at random, as we cannot predict the future, we have no idea which are the best. If you have any change, do the System Pro-Losers (lays).

I've spent a lot of time in Singapore, great place, met the missus there :)

[imranali]

correction, LOUSY place, but still liveable and betting not ever a problem :)

keith, u mentioned tat the system went live onlky this season, but direct compariosn with the NH systems show that since 2001, side by side comaprison shows MUCH more profits with the NH systems.... correct me if i am wrong? means that throughout years of testing, nh ones made much more than all the flat ones yea?

the 8 system to spread risks sounds good! however, i do not comprehend whay the "monthly" columns are for?

keith, i think i am going for the 4 nh ssytems, and maybe 3 flat systems... can u recommend one best performing lays systems for me to perhaps utilise?

[Win2Win]

correction, LOUSY place, but still liveable and betting not ever a problem
Trust me, it's a lot better than the West.....you have a justice system for a start.....the place is clean.....the police actually do some work.....immigration policies are good.....I could go on but it would take years.....:)

NH is more profitable, this is simply due to the fact that form is consistent every year, whereas the flat basically has to start from scratch with the majority of horses retired. I make a lot more from NH, but I still spread the risk on the flat.

Monthly are systems the same, you get qualifiers all year round, no need to worry what make them tick :) ....(I put together a new system 1st of every month based on current trends).

Lays....I said System Pro-Losers......currently at 93% for months :doh

[imranali]

funny u should say that, my aim is to save up enuf to stay in a quiet part of uk and perhaps geta uni degree there.

hmm ok my final decision now would be, follow all 4 nh systems, the two mthly systems, one max bet flat system, and pro losers...

as for staking pls tell me if this is right..

nh systems= 3% of bank

flat= 3%

mthly = 3%

pro loser 1%

[Win2Win]

Yep......

:yikes: He wants to come to the UK :yikes: Best to come in as an illegal immigrant, and claim asylum...you get a nice house & benefits.....and make extra income shoplifting as it is not a crime here :headbange ....and if you want to drive.....your betting banks need to be £100,000+ to pay for it :geek

[imranali]

oops!!!! i completelky FORGOT about the a+ and a bets!!!!!

what is the significancne on including them in my selected systems? shall it replace my flat win systems????

2)i notice a bets and a plus bets are both on mebers page and free pages!!! which do i folow, or do i follow both????? pls help!!

[Win2Win]

Ignore them....start with what you already decided.....when a bank doubles....split it in two....and do the A+, or whatever......

[imranali]

thx this is by far the best membership i ever got into... i was a member at betting school, the forum is DEAD... i also wanted to join surewinracing but now i rather not...

[imranali]

keith, i have soe extra money so am going to run the a and a plus bets... should i be following only the a bets from the members pages or use the ones from te free pages as well in my system???

[Win2Win]

They are all the same 'quality', whether members or free.

[imranali]

so the results section of a and a plus bets includes that from the free pages too yea?

[TheOldhamWhisper]

You need to slow down a bit, Imranali. Take stock and plan ahead. If you rush headlong into this game, you'll inevitably run into trouble. Gambling is not a get rich quick scheme - like everything else in life, you have to work hard to make it pay (and sometimes even that's not enough!).

As an example, take WBs 1k into 30k thread. Highly impressive and he did a great job with the staking BUT he just hit a big priced winner after a losing run of around 30. If you had the misfortune to start following the tips at the start of the bad run, there would be a good chance that your betting banks would have been almost totally depleted before the run ended. You have to be ready for things like that - they happen!

As Keith points out, start with just a few - you can always add more later. :)

[imranali]

keith, slap me on this one!! i cant understand tis part at all!... on the main page, of win2win.co.uk, under the join today special, it show that 5 X Win Flat System Qualifiers has made over 800 points whereas 5 X WIN NH System Qualifiers only made 79 points?!?!? when i open the records, it seems the other way around??

[Win2Win]

Where??? :laugh

[imranali]

i culd have sworn!! my eyes must be giving uyp on me i reckon!

do i treat the A bank separate from the a+ b and cbanks, or are they in the same pot??

[Win2Win]

i culd have sworn!! my eyes must be giving uyp on me i reckon!
I do hope no one changed it to make you look silly! :rolleyes:


do i treat the A bank separate from the a+ b and cbanks, or are they in the same pot??
Seperate