New to forum, trying system, help!

[Mikejs]

Hi folks, new to this forum and was wondering if i could get some advice on a new system i'm using...

I'm usually just an average punter who does alright on the horses, and i have tried using a system before for backing and it went horribly wrong.

Been testing one of my own for laying horses (on paper) for about a month now and the results look to good to be true. I've had a total of 421 bets (discounting non-runners which there have been a few) and only 14 have won their races, which is about 97% (admittedly a few have been long outsiders)
However i'm basing the figures on SP which is usually a lot lower than the outsiders are priced on betfair, and although my longest priced winner was 18/1 i'm worried the system might fail in the real world.
i'm currently +260pts after 1 month, is it worth me having a dabble with real money yet?

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Welcome.

You might want to trial it a little more using betfair prices - try and use an 'available' price a few minutes before the race is off, (Don't fall for checking the 'history box' and using the lowest price, it will skew your results).

If you wish, there is a systems section where you can proof your selections here on the forum - nothing like making it public to get the winners to lose and vice versa! :D

[Mikejs]

yeah the trouble is i work during the day, so just get the selections off racingpost website the night before and check all the results when i get home. and was planning on using auto-betfair if i take the system live.

where is the proofing thing?

[presto]

i would advise to carry on paper trading using betfair prices. with longer shots SP is completely different to the price that you can lay on betfair. one thing to do would be to find the adverage SP of your selections and then compare it to the betfair prices.

eg - say you worked out that your adverage SP was 20/1 - look at what the adverage 20/1 shot is trading at on betfair (lay price) - say it was trading at 40/1 on betfair - then double the prices of your paper trade results to see how they would compare.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

..where is the proofing thing?

about 2 threads down - Your System Qualifiers.

Simply post the horses names and then update the results and keep a running profit/loss. You don't have to post the system rules if you want to keep them to yourself but if you do, others may be able to help 'refine' it (if it needs refining).