Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

[Mug OUFC]

I warn you now, my record is awful in this league. Help me out here - let me know if you have a different opinion and when things go wrong, why do they go wrong. Feel free to call me point and laugh and call me names :yikes:

First pick

Tonight
YORK at Burton

Positives
1. Good head to head, York have won 2 and drawn 1 of last 3 here.
2. Good away record last year (57%)
3. Burton have drawn their last two opening home games
4. York have won their last two opening away games
5. Burton needed last minute equaliser to beat newly promoted histon on saturday
6. York were leading saturday until penalty and keeper sent off
7. Burton have injuries in defence (according to unreliable BBC)
8. York price inflated by saturdays result IMO

Negatives
1. Burtons first home game of the season, and under the lights on a summer evening the home team should enjoy good support.
2. Burton also had a good home record last season (57%)

I estimate percentages at a pretty even 39-17-43 and this makes the 3.05 York (before commission) on betfair appeal

2 points 3.05 (betfair before commission)

I also like Exeter and Halifax tonight at 1.66 and 1.9 respectively, but I think one of them will fail to win and I cant work out which one. Exeter look good on the stats but have injury problems in central midfield and Crawley are one of those teams that just wont give up. I like Halifax but they just seem to be a bit lacking in belief and optimism.

PLEASE ADVISE

[Merlin]

York look a fair bet to me....

Burton have a defensive crisis...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_conf/6941880.stm

That price is good(3.05)....the head to head is good.......I reckon you have yourself a good bet...

ALL THEY HAVE TO DO NOW IS WIN...:laugh

[yerotsluap]

York just equalised 1-1

Good luck with the bet

[yerotsluap]

York 2-1 now

[yerotsluap]

3-1 up and burton player sent off looking more and more like a great call

[yerotsluap]

sorry for jinxing it

[Mug OUFC]

UN-BE-LIEVABLE

4-3 Burton

Burton a man and 3-1 down with 7 minutes left

Now you see why i need help

:helper

[yerotsluap]

All your reasoning was spot on

really was a ridiculous result when you see what the score was with 7 minutes left as you said

[vegyjones]

Now that's tougher to take than any bad beat I have ever seen on the poker tables! :ooo

[scoobydoo]

stewards enquiry me thinks....that is unreal! Brings back memories of Spurs v Man City in the cup few years ago...wasnt that 4-3 as well?:ooo

[mathare]

stewards enquiry me thinks....that is unreal! Brings back memories of Spurs v Man City in the cup few years ago...wasnt that 4-3 as well?:oooYep, Spurs were 3-0 up at half-time and a mate of mine was in the wrong end of the ground for all 7 goals :laugh

Remember Spurs 3-5 Man Utd too? I remember reading about a Spurs fan who lumped on his team to win at half-time :laugh

[scoobydoo]

Yep, Spurs were 3-0 up at half-time and a mate of mine was in the wrong end of the ground for all 7 goals :laugh

Remember Spurs 3-5 Man Utd too? I remember reading about a Spurs fan who lumped on his team to win at half-time :laugh

Remember watching both of them Mat...the FA Cup one was unreal....City had someone sent off...was it :icon_tonghead?! :laugh....bet some fingers got burnt on both occasions....some lumping on at 1.01 I would think!! The United match was a saturday afternoon one and I was so down at half time...then I remembered it was Spurs!!:giggle You just never know do you....

[Merlin]

That was a one-off mate.....nothing wrong with the bet...it was looking good...just one of them things.....

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.Your just possessed by the spirit of a dead bookie:laugh

[mathare]

That was a one-off mate.....nothing wrong with the bet...it was looking good...just one of them things.....Yeah. Carry on as you are. You researched the bet well enough but :dung sometimes

[scoobydoo]

Absolutely right...you can bet your :butthead: that if something impossible can't happen...it will if I have backed in it! :ermmm Chin up mate...

[Mug OUFC]

:hahaha Wish it was a one-off

Back tomorrow for more shambolic gambling :bouncey

[Mug OUFC]

Watch this go tits up! :D

GRAYS v Woking.

Positives
Grays looked capable drawing at Torquay on sunday in the live game, and had chances to win it.
Grays have had a big influx of players since last seasons disappointing performance, and it would appear they have improved the quality of the squad
Grays only lost 6 of 23 at home last year in a poor year.
Grays won 5 of last 6 home games end of last season
Woking have only won 2 away games this calender year, and the squad does not look significantly improved over last year.
Grays won this fixture last season 3-0. Only other fixture at this ground was a 2-2 draw the year before.

Negatives
Grays drew too many at home last season - 9 of 23.
Wokings team, although young, is not without potential.
Woking were beating Rushden on saturday until a last minute equaliser.

Team news is neutral.

I make percentages for this a prudent 47-28-25. The 2.1 on offer for Graays at Betfred is therefore a little short of value, but I think this is the likeliest result and I will therefore condemn Grays to horrible and humiliating failure by trying them with 3 points.
GRAYS 3 points @ 2.1 (betfred). Although I may have to take the lower betfair price because i have no cash in my betfred account and my bank account is in overdraft :yikes:

In the other game tonight, Aldershot Torquay, I smell a draw but have no clue really. I wonder if Tim Sills might be a good bet to score on the ground where he was so successful? Not now I've tipped him up he isnt :lickme

[yerotsluap]

good luck with this one

[vegyjones]

Negatives - Betting against any side managed by the formidable Glenn Cockerill

[Merlin]

Nice work there, C....

Again good reasoning - and agree things look good for Grays..........

HOWEVER: I realize the percentages are subjective - and you could have got them wrong.....HOWEVER, if you have them right...you kinda admit yourself, your taking a bad bet (at the price)....if you always take bets like that, over the long term you will lose......(in theory)......I will reiterate this does depend on your percentages being correct and consistently correct.....

In saying that , without going into percentages.......Grays @ 1.50 with Blue Square...DRAW NO BET......looks cool..:yikes:...:laugh

[mathare]

In saying that , without going into percentages.......Grays @ 1.50 with Blue Square...DRAW NO BET......looks cool..:yikes:...:laughIf you're considering draw no bet you should also be looking at the prices to lay the opposition as it's a good alternative and you may actually get a better price. True, in the non-league markets there isn't much liquidity but it's worth a look sometimes. And of course you have the draw on your side this time.

If you're ever looking to dutch a win and a draw you should always compare the dutched odds to the lay of the opposition to see how they compare.

In this case Woking are available to lay at 4.1 on Betfair, which is close to your 25% win chance.

If your percentages are anywhere close you have no real value bets on this match based on the current odds, as Merlin has already indicated. Only you know how historically accurate your percentages are.

[Merlin]

Thats a good alternative Mat..........laying the oppo.....but as you point out......its getting exchange liquidity thats the problem..........

[mathare]

Thats a good alternative Mat..........laying the oppo.....but as you point out......its getting exchange liquidity thats the problem..........£1800 matched on this event at the mo, which is more than I expected if I am honest. And it's gone up £50-£100 since I first checked it 10-15 minutes ago and the prices have moved slightly with Woking layable at 4.0 now. Even if you have a quick glance and decide the market isn't liquid enough to bother with I'd say it's always worth a look at the exchange odds and considering alternative bets to the straight fixed odds win/draw/win bets

[Merlin]

£1800 matched on this event at the mo, which is more than I expected if I am honest. And it's gone up £50-£100 since I first checked it 10-15 minutes ago and the prices have moved slightly with Woking layable at 4.0 now. Even if you have a quick glance and decide the market isn't liquid enough to bother with I'd say it's always worth a look at the exchange odds and considering alternative bets to the straight fixed odds win/draw/win bets

That’ll be the Essex boys backing their team with their dodgy spondulicks…:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

What, both Grays fans :D

I havent got an account at blue square, best i can get on a DNB is going to be around 1.4 i think. Is this worth the risk? Woking can win this.

Are you basing this purely on my percentages, which I dont think are miles off but my record suggests they arent the best :spinning

[Merlin]

What, both Grays fans :D

I havent got an account at blue square, best i can get on a DNB is going to be around 1.4 i think. Is this worth the risk? Woking can win this.

Are you basing this purely on my percentages, which I dont think are miles off but my record suggests they arent the best :spinning


If you think Woking can win....thats your bet then...:yikes:….

According to Statto . com percentages….WOKING are the value…..

BUT THIS IS NOT ME RECOMENDING THE BET…..

Just adding to the discussion….:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Maybe it would be useful to explain how haphazardly i put my percentages together.

At this early stage of the season, I look at the 1x2 percentages home or away for each team last year. I appreciate this isnt ideal, this is a new year with new players, but its the best Ive got right now.

So grays were 8-9-6 at home last season which is 35%, 39%, 26%.
Woking were 7-4-12 away which is 30%, 17%, 52%

Averaging these against each other gives a 1X2 percentage of 43%, 28%, 28%.

Then looking at head to head (3-0 Grays last season) and clubs transfer activity, unscientifically take 3% from woking and give it to Grays to get 47-28-25. This may have been a little overcautious and I should actually maybe have nudged the draw % up too as both teams drew first time out, and the draw is the big danger for me.

[mathare]

Seems fair enough to me fella.

Perhaps you could throw in more seasons to see what impact that has on things. The biggest problem though is measuring the profitability of any changes you make to your 'system'. But as a guide your percentages seem sensible. But looking at the odds there is poor value in this one I think. It'd be a game I'd swerve if it were me

[yerotsluap]

In the other game tonight, Aldershot Torquay, I smell a draw but have no clue really. I wonder if Tim Sills might be a good bet to score on the ground where he was so successful? Not now I've tipped him up he isnt :lickme

Sills popped up with the first goal

[Mug OUFC]

Didnt back either in the end. Sills was about 8/1 for first goalscorer ;fire

You guys did a proper job of talking me out of the other one though, thank you :thumbs

[Merlin]

Cambridge United 2-1 Oxford United :laugh.....

[Mug OUFC]

;fire

Last kick of the game

And I was on the draw

[Merlin]

That must have been a double whammy for you ..C...:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

One was a trifle disappointed merlin, yes.

[Mug OUFC]

Today oxford travel to burton. Burtons defensive crisis appears to have got worse since they mugged me on tuesday night against york, but they are still favourites against oxford after the U's had their goal lead turned over at cambridge on thursday night.

Oxford will make changes, and welcome ones. Corcoran and Foster should come in at the back and in my opinion they are better players than day and gnohere who they replace. Rose and standing also look to be coming in in midfield, and they can both play.

Since thursday I have been thinking we will lose this. Now having seen the team and burtons worsening missing list, Im not so sure we cant beat the odds. However after tuesday night, Im not brave enough to back it. There should be goals in the game, and for a fun bet Im going to back Gary Twigg each way to score first at 7/1 with bet365 (1/3 odds unlimited places) against a makeshift burton defence who conceded 3 on tuesday and 2 on saturday. Twigg has scored 2 in 2 for oxford. Oxford will need to get a head start because burton, in both games this season, have scored goals late on to rescue games.

1 point each way Gary Twigg @ 8

[Merlin]

Scary-cat....:yikes:..I think O will win today.....

I looked at the game..but one cant bet everything can one…:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Confuscious say man who put eggs in too many baskets end up wearing egg on face :lickme

[Merlin]

:laugh

Confucius also say chicken lay golden egg for man with eggs of purple...

[Mug OUFC]

Mug OUFC say man with eggs of purple has bad eggs :yikes: :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

1-1 Twigg scores equaliser

My first winning bet in this thread :lickme

[Merlin]

Nice one....hope they can go now....:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

twigg penalty saved :headbange

[Mug OUFC]

yemi scores, oxford up 2-1 :happyboun

burton cant come back late 3 times in a row can they? :ooo

[Merlin]

Chinaman say Oxfordian man in cage needs purple balls…:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

:D :splapme

Burton having a go

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/mainframe.shtml?http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/oxford.shtml

radio commentary for the last few minutes if anyone interested

[Mug OUFC]

1-2 FT

Spot on as usual merl :thumbs

[Merlin]

Nice win…thought tey would do it…

[Mug OUFC]

IM BACK :yikes:

Im looking at Over 2.5 goals in the Weymouth v Burton game tonight

Positives:
Each have played 3 games, all of them overs so far this season.
Burton have injuries in goal and defence
Weymouth havent been able to defend for some time now
Both teams have quality goalscorers in Clare and Beavon (if fit) respectively

Negatives
Live on telly - non league players can freeze
Beavon might not be fully fit
Law of averages - both teams cant go on going over 2.5 indefinitely

I've not got a brilliant feeling about this bet...its a head vs instinct call. The stats all point to a high scoring game and a price of ~1.99 makes it an easy pick. BUT...Ive just got an gut feeling that this is a lazy pick and that the teams, in front of the cameras and with their poor defensive records, may tighten right up.

Please advise

[Mug OUFC]

Stats so far
Selections 3
Won 1
Profit -1.33

[Merlin]

Looks a good call, C....fingers crossed...

I have gone for a Weymouth win....

[Mug OUFC]

OK, if merlin likes it i like it :D

Bet 3
3 points on the overs at 1.99 (betfair)

Weymouth are a brave bet merl, your eggs must be particularly purple today :ooo

[Merlin]

Do you remember last season ? – right at the end – they won away for me.....:yikes:…..

[Skittle]

Instinct and gut feeling have told you not to, doesn't that amount of doubt rule out the bet, or has Merlin really convinced you ?

[Mug OUFC]

An interesting question which i have been pondering myself

Merlin knows his stuff and on this thread alone has been proved right 90% of the time.

My gut feeling isnt always right.

BUT 1.99 seems a big price for two teams who score and concede a lot. Value...or a trap?

So it goes back to the same question - gut feeling vs logical thinking.

What would you do?

[Merlin]

MY OPINION – opinion only..:laugh...at the price of almost even money…it’s a must bet …..

[Mug OUFC]

Price has come into 1.9 now

[glynners]

not a bad start if you went for it 1-0 after 18 minutes :thumbs

[scoobydoo]

not a bad start if you went for it 1-0 after 18 minutes :thumbs

How quickly things change in football....:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

If merlin says its a must bet, its a must bet :thumbs

2 winners in a row, blimey :ooo

Into profitable figures now.

Will have a look at this weekends games later, early thoughts are my lot have GOT to win at home to stafford.

[Merlin]

Nice one , C...on a roll...

[Mug OUFC]

Cheers Merl :D

Bets: 4
Won: 2
Staked: 9 pts
Profit: 4.52 pts

Oxford v Stafford

Positives
H2H Oxford won home and away last season
Stafford lost a lot of players close season including top striker Guy Madjo
Stafford lost 3 of 3, 2 of which were at home and have only managed one goal conceding 6.
Oxford off back of confidence building win at burton and have 6 points from 3 games (2 away).
Team news is neutral.

Negatives
Stafford will park the bus and oxford struggle to break down teams who play negatively.
Oxford can lack concentration and concede silly counterattack goals.
Stafford pulled off some shocks away from home last season and didnt have a bad away record.

Found 1.52 on betfair for this, there will be murders if oxford dont win. 5 points on the home win.

[Merlin]

Should be a straightforward win for Oxfordians…….I know its Friday…but still a bit early to be drunk…….:laugh 5 POINTS :laugh

[Skittle]

An interesting question which i have been pondering myself

Merlin knows his stuff and on this thread alone has been proved right 90% of the time.

My gut feeling isnt always right.

BUT 1.99 seems a big price for two teams who score and concede a lot. Value...or a trap?

So it goes back to the same question - gut feeling vs logical thinking.

What would you do?


Gut feeling at least 90% of the time.:thumbs

[Merlin]

S...the problem with relying on gut feeling....is it is obviously extremely subjective, often, mood dependent….and has no real basis for long term profit…

If you rely on gut feeling 90% of the time…you may aswell make your picks according to your daily horoscope..:laugh…

Although I do agree that whatever gut feeling maybe , it comes into the equation…but 90%....your aving a laugh, Mate...…:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Are you suggesting my stake is a little strong merlin? :D

[Mug OUFC]

Cant find ANYTHING else I like tonight or tomorrow :ooo

[vegyjones]

Crew at 6/5 to beat us is surely the bookies trying to throw there money at the punter.

If we come home with a point, I'll be ecstatic (providing it's not a last minute equaliser we let in :laugh )

Oxford to beat Stafford must be the home banker to end all home bankers in the world of homes or bankers :D 1.52, it's like all your Christmases come early!!! Surely :laugh

[Merlin]

Are you suggesting my stake is a little strong merlin? :D

You should be OK this time.....but dont forget to pray.. tonight….:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

I may have a nibble at crewe then vegy thanks :thumbs

I dont know merl, you tell me my balls aint purple enough then you tell me to pray when i put 5/10 on a 1.5 shot. I reckon youre winding me up :laugh

[Skittle]

Got to have a laugh now and then Merlin, though 90% could be a bit steep.

[Merlin]

I reckon youre winding me up :laugh

Never....:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Oxford won 2-1, should have been about 5 or 6 up by the time stafford got a goal back and then it was squeaky bum time :ooo

Bets: 5
Won:4
Staked: 14 pts
Profit: 7 pts

Theres a few home wins i like tomorrow - prices wont be big though...wonder how two games in three days will affect conference sides?

As for the oxford game, live on telly. That is a very hard one to call. Stevenage beat kidderminster 2-0 last week without having a single corner or attacking free kick apparently.

[yerotsluap]

4 wins out of 5 bets good going mate

[Mug OUFC]

Sorry that should be 3/5 :splapme

Thanks anyway, profit figure is right

[Mug OUFC]

Bets i am contemplating for tomorrow. No team news out yet so that may change things. Anyone got any feelings on these?

Burton v Farsley - looks a home win here and should be goals in it so overs? Clare got a head injury at weymouth though, if he doesnt play that might put me off.

Cambridge v Ebbsfleet - home win again ebbsfleet arent as good as gravesend were despite beating a poor halifax saturday and cambridge are solid.

Exeter v weymouth - looks a rock solid home win EXCEPT exeter had what looks a reasonably tiring trip up north saturday while weymouth have had an extra two days rest since thursday nights game home to burton.

Northwich v York - york cant be trusted at the moment but looks good for the overs this one

[Merlin]

First 3 look good for home wins..C...I wouldnt touch that York game....Iistened to the commentary last game at home….they were terrible, think they had 1 real chance all game…their own fans (2000 odd) were booing them at the end….:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

I had my last tenner in the world on cambridge...and they were lucky to draw. I would add this 2 point loss to my betting figures but I wouldnt have added it if it had won so I wont.

It was a topsy turvy day in the conference with some very strange results...was this due to two games in three days?

[Mug OUFC]

Absolutely no clue in tonights live game to be honest, and no money to bet anyway. Payday tomorrow :wiggle:

[Merlin]

York.....wont be having my money though....:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

Thats my guess too, probably only way Id bet it is with your money :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

2-3 away win

In poker parlance I believe that is known as a good fold :thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

One is vexed

I took a day off work today as i am starting a 3 day detox diet that consists of eating only apples. My mood and energy is therefore around 3 points.

This vexation is further exacerbated by the fact that Ive left all my conference data at work. I can access my work email but cant access my files. Therefore, I am flying blind for tomorrows games. Nicht gut. Might have to sit out.

[monty]

One is vexed

I took a day off work today as i am starting a 3 day detox diet that consists of eating only apples. My mood and energy is therefore around 3 points.




Eating Apples for 3 days?.?...:yikes: Naw .. do it the Scottish way mate, just drink a case of cider...:pn ... :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

:Kilt: :laugh

[Merlin]

Eating Apples for 3 days?.?...:yikes: Naw .. do it the Scottish way mate, just drink a case of cider...:pn ... :laugh

:laugh:laugh:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Right, off to the game. I reckon prices of ~1.8 about oxford are good enough for me. Halifax had a good result LTO but that was against opposition who are, frankly, wánk. They have been a poor away side for some time now. We might be missing hutchinson in midfield and that would be a blow but we do have more attacking cover which may mean more chance of goals. Paul Shaw (ex arsenal, millwall, gillingham, etc etc) has been brought in as attacking cover so we may be spared the embarassment of fielding marvin robinson with our attacking injuries.

It might be the apples talking, but Ill go 4 points on oxford today at 1.79 (betfair)

[Merlin]

I agree , Oxford win......C...no worries.......

You only sing when your rowing........

[Mug OUFC]

HOW FRUSTRATING ;fire

[Mug OUFC]

Bets: 6
Won:3
Staked: 18 pts
Profit: 0.17 pts :laugh

My bets for tuesday, pointing and laughing will be permitted

Droylsden v STEVENAGE Evens @ betfred (3 points)
- Droylsden have lost their last 4 (2 home 2 away), although these games are against decent opposition
- Droylsden yet to win a game
- Stevenage won 4 of 6
- Stevenage won 2 of 3 away against decent opposition, only loss opening day defeat at crawley

Stevenage are playing well and assuming droylsdens pitch isnt a non-league shambles (i havent been there yet) evens looks a spiffing price here.

TORQUAY v Salisbury 1.64 betfair (3 points)
- Torquay won 4 of 6
- Torquay yet to lose
- Torquay scoring goals - 13 in last 5 games
- Salisbury are yet to win away
- Salisbury beaten some decent teams at home but have failed to beat the newly promoted teams away (although they have drawn 2 of 3)
This one does have that whiff of a possible upset about it to me, but i keep missing out on backing torquay because they have most of oxfords cast offs from last year. But they seem to be a solid bet.

Northwich v BURTON @ 2.4 (betfair) (3 points)
- northwich not too clever at the moment (started last year badly too)
- burton done the double in this fixture last year.
- Burton are drawn 2 lost 1 away but are slowly getting players back.
- Northwich have lost 5 of 6 and are leaking goals like crazy.
- Northwichs pitch is a perfect surface for burtons style of play.

2 winners from 3 will mean profit

Im also going to try something a bit different. I fancy goals in the following games:
farsley 2.04
FGR 1.9
York 1.9
and so am on a over 2.5 goals treble for 1 point.

Also an under 2.5 goals double:
ebbsfleet 1.9
rushden 1.9
1 point

11 points staked. Is this too much? :yikes::yikes::yikes:

[Merlin]

:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

:grinny

[Merlin]

:grinny

:yikes:....:laugh....Only when I celebrate..:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

:laugh

Anyway, any constructive criticism? :D :wink

[Skittle]

Yes, you are trying to do too much at once, hedging almost. Keep it simple. One winner out of that lot could win you just as much.

[Mug OUFC]

ok, thats what i thought

so which ones to drop?

i probably like stevenage most, just stick with that?

[Mug OUFC]

although i do like burton :D

but thats two aways and one is bound to not come in :doh

[Mug OUFC]

Right im taking burton out - clare is injured and they are down to their bare bones. Still think they will win though.

Also taking york out of the overs treble as they have signed a new keeper.

Also sacking off the unders double due to various team news.

So bets are now:

Stevenage @ Evens (3/10)
Torquay @ 1.66 (3/10)
Over 2.5 goals double: Farsley and Forest Green (1/10)

10 points on all the bets I have chosen failing and all the bets I have removed coming in :rolleyes:

[Merlin]

Good Luck...C.......look good...

[Skittle]

Does it feel better now Mug ? If only it was that easy every time, although you did stick with the double, albeit at low stakes.

[Skittle]

Checking out the results from last time, forget the above, I'm not long up.:geek

[Mug OUFC]

:laugh

MORNING SKITTLE

[monty]

I warn you now, my record is awful in this league. Help me out here - let me know if you have a different opinion and when things go wrong, why do they go wrong.


Hi Mate

I was just wondering if you kept a record of the results on this League, or any other sort of information to help you with your picks?????

[Mug OUFC]

Monty my friend. I have got football-data stats and michael wray spreadsheets (great as reference material). So loads of data.

Problem with the conf - stats themselves dont really seem to be consistent enough. its a topsy turvy league. games within days of each other, suspensions and injuries, massively variable pitches, genuinely shocking refereeing, inconsistent non-professional and professional players...theres a load of stuff that can screw a decent looking bet up for you.

[monty]

The reason that I was asking you was that last year, I kept a ratings sheet on the Conference League, but I didn’t continue it this year as I didn’t think many people were interested in the games. I did manage to get myself the odd winner from the highly rated home picks, but most of the games were just like you said “hard to pick”.

[monty]

I like the look Stevenage and Burton Albion away.

[Merlin]

Your bets are looking very good ...C...well done...nice to see someone splattering the bookies.......nice one...

Well done to M.....Ayr are home and hosed....surely....2-0 up...

[Skittle]

A very good morning to you guys. It's like having the 'M' team around when you need help.


Mug..........singles were good enough. Personally I don't dabble on things like overs. It's almost like it's too much work running through the stats. I do stray from the straight win single bet now and then, but not often.

[monty]

A very good morning to you guys. It's like having the 'M' team around when you need help.



'M' team... :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

:wiggle: Success for a change :laugh

I got 1.78 for torquay on betfair last night, inexplicably, but i'll put 1.64 in my stats cos thats what i posted up.

Annoyed with myself a bit for leaving out burton, i really fancied that, need more confidence in myself sometimes...

skittle i know your right and gooner often says how he tried to get a system for picking over/unders, but it never profited as the market is too unpredictable

Bets: 9
Won:5
Staked: 25 pts
Profit: 5 pts

5 points profit from 25 staked. YOU DONT GET THAT SORT OF RETURN FROM A BANK ACCOUNT :laugh :laugh :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

The reason that I was asking you was that last year, I kept a ratings sheet on the Conference League, but I didn’t continue it this year as I didn’t think many people were interested in the games. I did manage to get myself the odd winner from the highly rated home picks, but most of the games were just like you said “hard to pick”.

Theres definitely more interest now with so many games televised on nights when theres nowt else on...and people are desperate for info because even the commentators know **** all about the teams (paul parker on setanta keeps calling us oxford city :doh) so i encourage you to resurrect your sheet if it can give us any sort of edge :Helooo

The amazing thing i find with the league is, as you know i watch oxford home and most away games, and teams can look brilliant against us (supposedly one of the top teams in the league although current form would suggest otherwise) and then go out in their next game and get humped at home by someone dreadful. And vice versa. Its baffling at times.

[monty]

My team Ayr Utd had a player who once played for your team Oxford Utd at one point, this player was captain at both clubs and a great servant to both clubs, but can you remember who this player is? :rolleyes:

He was a cult hero at Ayr and a lot of the Ayr Utd supporters would like this guy to come back as manager at some point in the future.

[monty]

Theres definitely more interest now with so many games televised on nights when theres nowt else on...and people are desperate for info because even the commentators know **** all about the teams (paul parker on setanta keeps calling us oxford city :doh) so i encourage you to resurrect your sheet if it can give us any sort of edge :Helooo

I haven't updated the Non League ratings yet, but I did put the weekends fixtures into my quick sheet, this is a sheet I use for leagues that I know nothing about, it gives out home -away and season form and picks out what it thinks are likely results. It's just a guide but can fling out a few winners every now and again. And just incase you want to know?, this is what it said about your league weekend fixtures.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Homes:

Stevenage v’s Stafford Rangers ……. Home Win (Monday) 19.45pm

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Draws:

Gray’s Athletic v’s Forest Green …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm
Exeter v’s Cambridge Utd …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Away Wins:

Altrincham v’s Oxford Utd …….Away Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

To be honest with you mate there is not much of a surprise with that lot, but it could be worth doing the home treble? as all the home teams will be playing teams at the bottom of the table.

It's your league "C" so you can let me know what you think of this weekends picks.

Last night it gave out Stevenage and Burton, but I didn't bet on them as I had already done my own team Ayr Utd.

[Mug OUFC]

I havent looked at the weekend myself yet monty, but like you say its pumping out sensible predictions there.

An oxford captain who also played for Ayr...i dont know is it before my time :yikes: We've had a fair few scottish players recently but i dont know if any of them played for ayr.

Onto tonights TV game. Stafford v Halifax. I will be backing Halifax. Reasons for this:
1. Stafford are crap.
2. Halifax arent as crap.
3. No other reasoning is necessary.

2 points Halifax @ 2.37 (bet365)

[vegyjones]

I did fancy Halifax myself at above evens. Especially since Stafford would appear to be the Blue Square Premier (nay Conference :D ) whipping boys!

However, even whiping boys pick up the odd point here and there, and Halifax look to be one of the teams they might take something from in their current state!

But good luck Mug!

[monty]

I havent looked at the weekend myself yet monty, but like you say its pumping out sensible predictions there.

An oxford captain who also played for Ayr...i dont know is it before my time :yikes: We've had a fair few scottish players recently but i dont know if any of them played for ayr.



I'm going back a long time....:yikes: He was English and his name was Malcolm Shotton, do you remember him?

[vegyjones]

He played for Oxford when they were good - you ARE going back a long time! :laugh

[monty]

He played for Oxford when they were good - you ARE going back a long time! :laugh

He was a hard b~~~~~d when he played for Ayr Utd, he didn't take any crap from anyone. :punch1

[Mug OUFC]

F off vegy :laugh

Malcolm shotton is a legend, monty :thumbs Didnt know he played for Ayr.

I never saw him play but he wasnt too clever as manager, sadly.

[monty]

F off vegy :laugh

Malcolm shotton is a legend, monty :thumbs Didnt know he played for Ayr.

I never saw him play but he wasnt too clever as manager, sadly.

He tried to get the vacant managers job at Ayr last season, but he didn't get it. I seen just about every game he played with Ayr Utd and that was nearing the end of his playing career, he was very good then, so I would imagine that he was a cracking player in his younger days.
There was also another couple of players who were connected with both clubs, Nigel Jemson left Ayr to go back to your team for his 2nd spell at the club and John Robertson also left Ayr but returned the following season.

[Mug OUFC]

I did fancy Halifax myself at above evens.

However, even whiping boys pick up the odd point here and there, and Halifax look to be one of the teams they might take something from in their current state!

But good luck Mug!

To be honest having seen both teams already this season at the kasstad, the difference between these teams is night and day and I was considering a bet triple the size. The only thing that is reining me in is the fact that stafford cut their grass very long last season, and if they are still doing this this will not suit halifax who are a footballing side. I may increase my stake in running if it looks like halifax can zip it about.

[Mug OUFC]

He tried to get the vacant managers job at Ayr last season, but he didn't get it. I seen just about every game he played with Ayr Utd and that was nearing the end of his playing career, he was very good then, so I would imagine that he was a cracking player in his younger days.
There was also another couple of players who were connected with both clubs, Nigel Jemson left Ayr to go back to your team for his 2nd spell at the club and John Robertson also left Ayr but returned the following season.

I think general (reluctant, as i say he is a legend in these parts) opinion is shotton didnt have the nous as a manager mate.

[monty]

Well, maybe it's a good job Ayr didn't get him as manager....:laugh

[Merlin]

Ooh...now I noticed you took Halifax tonight....thats the end of that then....:laugh.......

[monty]

Ooh...now I noticed you took Halifax tonight....thats the end of that then....:laugh.......

Correct....:laugh:laugh:laugh

[Merlin]

Theres no score yet...but I think its on Setanta...and the in running market suggests Halifax are all over them...Stafford are easy to back at over 4.00

[monty]

Latest Score:

Stafford 0 Halifax 1

Goal for Halifax

[Merlin]

yeah........

[monty]

Half Time Score:

Stafford 0 Halifax 1 ...... Killeen (35mins)

So far so good...:D

[monty]

Latest Score:

Stafford 1 Halifax 1

[Merlin]

Damn it Janet - its 2-1 now...

[monty]

:ARsurrend :ARsurrend :ARsurrend :ARsurrend

[vegyjones]

2-2 13 minutes left!

Will halifax be happy with a point after going 2-1 down though?

[vegyjones]

it's all turned round now!! 2-3 :yikes:

have stafford got owt left?

[vegyjones]

Well done Mug... A nice call in the end, with The Shaymen just having that bit too much calsss! It set the bloody heart rate pulsing though :laugh

[Merlin]

We had it....

[monty]

:hoho:Easy..:hoho:Easy..:hoho:Easy..:hoho:Easy..:hoho:

Full Time Score:

Stafford 2 Halifax 3

[monty]

I was never worried honest, I had the flags out and everything......:laugh:laugh:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

NEVER IN DOUBT :laugh

[monty]

Mug OFC

What do you think of this double? I don't like betting in International matches, so I'm thinking about sticking with these two homes.

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

The price for the double is currently around 2.78 @ Betfair

[Mug OUFC]

I like crawley but not so hot on aldershot monty...will put up my bets soon. Bear in mind that i'm not a brilliant or massively experienced tipster - if you like the aldershot bet stick with it :thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

Crawley v Droyslden. Crawley are a reasonable side who have seen off better teams than droylsden already this year. Crawley may have injuries in defence but surely a HOME WIN.

Aldershot northwich looks nailed on statswise BUT Northwich won this fixture last season, aldershot seem to be better away than at home having lost 2 of 3, and may miss players through suspension/injury. It is still VERY tempting to back against northwich until they start giving a reason to stop as they are very slow starters but at odds of 1.62 I might err on the side of caution and swerve this one.

Oxford away...we should win, especially as Hutchison is expected to return to the lineup, but our keeper is out. Our reserve keeper (Tardif) is a fantastic shot stopper but he is shocking at commanding his area and communicating with an inexperienced back 3 and I dont trust him enough to put my money on oxford with him in there. He was the reason we drew tuesday nights game, we were 2-0 up when he came on and the defence went to pieces after that.

I fancy OVERS in Salisbury v Rushden. Salisbury have goals at home while Rushden have goals away. Watch this finish 0-0 now :laugh

So my prospective bets for Saturday are:

CRAWLEY v Droyslden 4 points @ 1.73 (betfred)
Salisbury v Rushden over 2.5 goals 1 points @ 2 (bet365)

I am getting confident on my picks now...which is a worry as this almost guarantees an upcoming kick in the knackers.

Stats
Bets 10
Won: 6
Staked 27 points
Profit (loss): 7.5 points

[Mug OUFC]

I'm a little hesitant on this one as it two teams i havent seen or bet on before, but looking at the stats it looks a reasonable shout if you can get anything near evens:

Histon
Won 3 on the bounce, 2 away at decent opposition: Grays and Ebbsfleet.
2 narrow defeats came away to stevenage and home to aldershot. No real shame there.

Farsley
Lost all 3 away games
2 wins at home came against poor opponents: Stafford and Northwich.

3 points Histon @ 2.04 (betfair)

[Mug OUFC]

Silence :laugh

[monty]

Well mate! I'm going to go 1 point on your picks as well as my own original bet this weekend, as I'm not touching the Internationals. My bets this weekend will be more of an interest just to see how the results go, if they go well? I will continue with this league each week. I know some say not to bet on this League because it's a lower standard of football. I know it will be hard to get profit over the season, but I did manage to pick up a few good priced winners last year, so lets hope we can pick some more this season.

[Mug OUFC]

Well mate! I'm going to go 1 point on your picks as well as my own original bet this weekend,

You're mental :laugh

yeah its a tough league, defintely would be cool to have your thoughts on the fixtures though :thumbs

i need all the help i can get :yikes:

[monty]

The way my bets are going at the moment I would rather just read your thoughts on the games and follow you. I can't do any worse than I'm doing just now....:rolleyes:

[Merlin]

Good Luck C...I fancy your lot to win today...and the Exeter V Camb game as over 2.50....

[Mug OUFC]

Im sure we will mate...but tardif is a liability in goal :yikes:

Good luck us :thumbs

[Merlin]

Im sure we will mate...but tardif is a liability in goal :yikes:

Good luck us :thumbs


Perhaps the overs is a better bet then...?...

[monty]

I haven't updated the Non League ratings yet, but I did put the weekends fixtures into my quick sheet, this is a sheet I use for leagues that I know nothing about, it gives out home -away and season form and picks out what it thinks are likely results. It's just a guide but can fling out a few winners every now and again. And just incase you want to know?, this is what it said about your league weekend fixtures.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Homes:

Stevenage v’s Stafford Rangers ……. Home Win (Monday) 19.45pm Still to Win on Monday

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 5-0

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 5-0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Draws:

Gray’s Athletic v’s Forest Green …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm :ermmm 0-1
Exeter v’s Cambridge Utd …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 1-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Away Wins:

Altrincham v’s Oxford Utd …….Away Win (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 1-3

To be honest with you mate there is not much of a surprise with that lot, but it could be worth doing the home treble? as all the home teams will be playing teams at the bottom of the table.

It's your league "C" so you can let me know what you think of this weekends picks.

Last night it gave out Stevenage and Burton, but I didn't bet on them as I had already done my own team Ayr Utd.



Well that went well...:D

[Mug OUFC]

******* right it did :yikes: Better than i did - one of three for me ;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire

Im done with over/under 2.5 goals now - im taking skittle advice and leaving it alone its too unpredictable

Heartfelt apologies if i put you off bets monty, i did warn you my strike rate is unpredictable :ermmm

Oxford were a close run thing..alty equalised late on to make it 1-1 and were on top therafter looked like we'd blown it again, thankfully two late goals won it.

[Mug OUFC]

Im confused about histon. how can a team win 3 on the bounce, two away to good conference opposition, and then lose at home to a team who havent won for time and so far have only beat the divisions whipping boys?

[monty]

******* right it did :yikes: Better than i did - one of three for me ;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire

Heartfelt apologies if i put you off bets monty, i did warn you my strike rate is unpredictable :ermmm



Don't Worry mate! I done the double that I posted, so that helped me...:happyboun



Mug OFC

What do you think of this double? I don't like betting in International matches, so I'm thinking about sticking with these two homes.

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

The price for the double is currently around 2.78 @ Betfair

As for over and under bets, I never seem to call it right either, so your probably your right to give it a miss from now on, unless your really confident that a game will have a few goals.

[monty]

Im confused about histon. how can a team win 3 on the bounce, two away to good conference opposition, and then lose at home to a team who havent won for time and so far have only beat the divisions whipping boys?


That's betting for you mate! I had the same problem last night with my Limerick bet. Going by my ratings Limerick should have hammered Monaghan but they lost 2-0 and for some mental reason the Irish games have been flinging out some crazy results over the last 3-4 weeks. I'm thinking about leaving them alone and sticking with my Scottish picks, as I trust the Scottish teams more, probably because I know more about those teams.

[Mug OUFC]

Stevenage are 1.4 tomorrow :yikes:

I mean im sure they will win, but 1.4 in this division :ooo

[monty]

Well, at that price I would normally give the game as miss. I've blown a couple of Monty Bets lately because of the low price. The last one was the other night with Finn Harps, who were my original pick but priced at 1.36 and I decided against it to go with the better priced Limerick. And guess what Finn Harps won and Limerick lost.
Merlin has the right idea on these low odds, he looks at these games as as easy profit, whether it's 36% 40% or whatever, it doesn't really matter to him. I think I should learn from my mistakes? and do what Merlin does, and that will start with a bet on Stevenage tomorrow.

[Mug OUFC]

Mmm dont get me wrong, I will be on it - stevenage are a very good team and stafford...arent. I remember a lot of similar priced favourites drawing and occasionally even losing last season though, and I wonder at what point the risk/return swings too far.

[Merlin]

I wonder at what point the risk/return swings too far.


When you get greedy...:yikes:

[Merlin]

Like me :laugh

[Skittle]

Stevenage sounds like my type of bet. Will have a look later. Have to take my eldest back to Uni on Monday :D:waver so I'm not sure of where I'll be. At least I get the car back on the drive.:thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

Stevenage it is. As long as the world behaves itself they will win. What stake are we thinking then?

Stats
Bets 13
Won: 7
Staked 35 points
Profit (loss): 6.5 points

[Merlin]

Thats great profit...C......great stats........

Whats your stake range….? Is it 1-5 or 1- 10?

[Mug OUFC]

1-10

Ive been keeping stakes low while i build up a bit of confidence...

[Merlin]

In that case then...its possible that your previous bets havent been staked ¨properly¨……sort of……..kind of….know what I mean…..:laugh

Your results belie low confidence……start staking properly…..you will get a real picture emerging then….

[Mug OUFC]

STEVENAGE ARE IN TO 1.36 NOW ;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire;fire

[Mug OUFC]

Just to illustrate my point about short priced favourites being a gamble in this division...last season there were 9 games with home favourites at 1.4 or below (bet365 prices). These finished:

4 home wins :yikes:
4 draws
1 away win

level 1 point staking would have returned a 3.5 point loss

[Mug OUFC]

*sigh*

6 points stevenage @ 1.37 :helper

[MattR]

Good luck Mug.


Question is, is it that you aren't convinced they are going to win or the price that has been making you think twice?

Bottom line, if you think they will win then their price isn't going to effect their ability to beat Stafford.

[Mug OUFC]

A good question. Everything points to a win. BUT teams in this division...strange things happen all the time...less than 50% of selections under 1.4 won last year and odds of 1.4 imply probability of what...70%? 75%? I think it was Stevenage got beat 2-1 at home to st albans last year at odds of 1.4 :yikes:

I know the price doesnt affect the actual chances of victory...but i dont think this sort of price reflects the probability...and i also dont like the fact i have to lump on to get a return thats worth placing the bet in the first place?

I'm just wittering on arent I?

[Skittle]

Fancy the Burton game for a draw.

[MattR]

No, I can see where you're coming from on it. On recent past games in this league at this odds you'd have made profit laying the home team then with those stats and that's got to put doubt in your mind. Also the fact at this kind of level an injury or two can have a big impact unlike the Premier for example where a decent replacement will come in. Erm, now I think i'm putting you off :laugh

[Skittle]

Didn't do the draw, layed Torquay instead.

[Mug OUFC]

I quite fancied torquay for this one :laugh

Good job i kept me mouth shut :D

[Mug OUFC]

Oh :splapme

Ah ha ha ha just seen burtons first goal, ive had a **** day thats cheered me up CLOWN

[MattR]

Looking good MUG, 1 up and Stafford a man down :)

[monty]

2-0 now

[monty]

I haven't updated the Non League ratings yet, but I did put the weekends fixtures into my quick sheet, this is a sheet I use for leagues that I know nothing about, it gives out home -away and season form and picks out what it thinks are likely results. It's just a guide but can fling out a few winners every now and again. And just incase you want to know?, this is what it said about your league weekend fixtures.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Homes:

Stevenage v’s Stafford Rangers ……. Home Win (Monday) 19.45pm :happyboun 3-0

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm :spinning 5-0

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 5-0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Draws:

Gray’s Athletic v’s Forest Green …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm :ermmm 0-1
Exeter v’s Cambridge Utd …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 1-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Away Wins:

Altrincham v’s Oxford Utd …….Away Win (Saturday) 3.00pm :happyboun 1-3

To be honest with you mate there is not much of a surprise with that lot, but it could be worth doing the home treble? as all the home teams will be playing teams at the bottom of the table.

It's your league "C" so you can let me know what you think of this weekends picks.

Last night it gave out Stevenage and Burton, but I didn't bet on them as I had already done my own team Ayr Utd.


5 correct from 6 I wish it could do that every week...:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

2 games tomorrow night monty get on it :thumbs:D

[Merlin]

Well done, C....

Keep taking that stuff….your cooking…….:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

I cant even pick a 1.36 shot without a good whinge :laugh

[Skittle]

Didn't do the draw, layed Torquay instead.

Sometimes there is a slightly better alternative and @ 2.58 to lay Torquay it seemed better.:D

[Mug OUFC]

nice bet skittle, as i say if i would have bet anything i would have bet torquay...

[Skittle]

Onwards and upwards chaps.

[Mug OUFC]

I have no strong feelings on the games tonight. I think oxford should win...but if tardif is in goal we may have to score two and that is touch and go. Could be a draw...it was 2-2 last season...and the 3 on grays is a big price....

I can see where merlin is going with halifax...am I brave enough to back it...not sure yet. Its no banker but the price does reflect that of course. If it was on a saturday with a full programme of games I wouldnt be betting on it though.

[MattR]

Chris Tardif I assume MUG? He played a couple of games in the first team at Pompey I seem to recall. Not impressive!

[Mug OUFC]

Thats him :thumbs. He was our player of the season a couple of years ago when he had a brilliant season - pulled off some incredible saves. He is a great shot stopper. However, leader of men and commander of his area he aint. He is too small and quiet. And we dont have enough leaders as it is :ermmm

Word is he is going to retire soon, not sure how old he is dont think he has reached late 20's though. Shame.

We had Guatelli on loan from pompey too. He was very italian :laugh

[monty]

2 games tomorrow night monty get on it :thumbs:D


I can't split them, there is not a big enough difference in either of the two games for the sheet to pick one out a likely winner. It looks to me like Draws in both games.

I'm giving both matches a miss tonight as anything could happen, as you said it's a difficult league and that's exactly what I think about these two games tonight...DIFFICULT

[MattR]

We had Guatelli on loan from pompey too. He was very italian :laugh

What was he like, never saw him play?

[Mug OUFC]

Goalie, about 7 ft 6 with long hair. Very highly rated apparently. Looked like a girl and catched like one :laugh

He got injured after a few starts and when Jim Smith was asked what injury he had, Smith replied "An italian one" :D

[monty]

I can't split them, there is not a big enough difference in either of the two games for the sheet to pick one out a likely winner. It looks to me like Draws in both games.




Full-Time Score:

Grays 0 Oxford Utd 0

Halifax 1 Woking 0


Well, it does looks like a they were a couple of hard games to pick a winner from.

[Mug OUFC]

Listened to the oxford game on the radio. Turley was back in goal. We were the better team and should have won it but both teams had chances to take all 3 points. We are very negative though - i hate it.

I wonder if betting the draw in close games like this has the potential for long term cashability

[monty]

I wonder if betting the draw in close games like this has the potential for long term cashability


Yes! it could work, as long as we got a at least 1 draw in every 3 games.:rolleyes:

[Merlin]

Yes! it could work, as long as we got a at least 1 draw in every 3 games.:rolleyes:

I played about with something like this a few years ago....but only on a Saturday...and played multiples......it was profitable….but was to time consuming (for me) to arrive at the draws……..

[MattR]

Goalie, about 7 ft 6 with long hair. Very highly rated apparently. Looked like a girl and catched like one :laugh

He got injured after a few starts and when Jim Smith was asked what injury he had, Smith replied "An italian one" :D

:laugh

Yes, I remember he was supposed to be very highly rated but never saw the light of day!

[Mug OUFC]

Getting this in early as off to the england game this afternoon and lots on at work (dont laugh)

Forest Green v Salisbury (thursday)

Positives
I like forest green this year, they are no longer the whipping boys of the division and are a pragmatic side. If they can get some consistency I am sure they will be at least top half. They have 2-1-1 at home, including a draw with leaders torquay.
Newly promoted Salisbury are good at home but are yet to win away.

Negs
FG style is maybe a bit better suited to away games as they like to counter
Consistency may be a problem so I would be wary of trusting them at short odds.
FG arent on telly much - might freeze. Same applies to salisbury though.
No head to heads.

Home win, home win. 6 points @ 1.98 (betfair BC)

[monty]

Getting this in early as off to the england game this afternoon and lots on at work (dont laugh)

Forest Green v Salisbury (thursday)

Positives
I like forest green this year, they are no longer the whipping boys of the division and are a pragmatic side. If they can get some consistency I am sure they will be at least top half. They have 2-1-1 at home, including a draw with leaders torquay.
Newly promoted Salisbury are good at home but are yet to win away.

Negs
FG style is maybe a bit better suited to away games as they like to counter
Consistency may be a problem so I would be wary of trusting them at short odds.
FG arent on telly much - might freeze. Same applies to salisbury though.
No head to heads.

Home win, home win. 6 points @ 1.98 (betfair BC)


I would go with the home win as well, their home record has been quite good so far this season.

[Mug OUFC]

Absolute shambles and almost all my profit gone. FG just didnt play at all ;fire;fire;fire

Weekends picks up soon, for what they are worth :rolleyes:

[Mug OUFC]

Monty my man

I am looking at:
Burton at Rushden
Stevenage at York
and Torquay home to halifax tonight

Any thoughts?

[monty]

Stevenage and Torquay are coming out as the highest rated picks on my sheet. It does favour Burton to win but not as much as the first two. Histon away @ Northwich is also coming out quite high as does Gray's @ Stafford. The 2nd best home win is Cambridge Utd they are coming out as a high pick based only on their Home form. And coming out as my best draw I have Farsley Celtic v's Exeter. The ratings worked well last week, but who know's what way they will go this week. I don't know much about the teams in this league, that's why I just take a chance with the best rated ones.
The problem I had with my ratings they would work excellent one week and could be very poor the next. I would probably just stick with the teams you have picked out already.

What do you think about the teams the ratings are going with?

[Mug OUFC]

Cheers monty

Burton arent a strong pick for me either but i do like the price. (2.6 to 2.7)

I also thought about Histon at northwich, northwich are very easy to lay at the moment. It took them until Xmas last year to start winning games and they seem to be following the same trend with worse players this season. They have also put 5 players on the transfer list this week and one of them has gone on loan to rushden. However, I was confident on histon last weekend at home and they got turned over by farsley celtic :ooo Now...do I learn my lesson or do I try them again? Or are histon just better away than at home? :spinning

Similar to Northwich, Stafford are just awful at the moment and you could do a lot worse than just lay them every week. Negatives I see with this are that Grays are inconsistent (3-3-3 record so far) and Stafford won this one last year

Cambridge started strong but have drawn 4 of last 5. Crawley are unbeaten in 5 although I guess theyve only won one away, but this was a a tidy result at aldershot. My feeling is its closer than the 1.95 offered on Cambridge?

I am a little concerned about the torquay price. Although it looks strong on paper, the teams they have beaten so far arent that strong and 1.65ish is a very low price.

No team news has come through yet of course.

Any thoughts?

[Merlin]

Merlin my man

I am looking at throwing my money away on:
Burton at Rushden
Stevenage at York
and Torquay home to halifax tonight

Any thoughts, Wizard?

OK..as you have asked .... :laugh

Burton at Rushden ......HOME
Stevenage at York.....HOME
and Torquay home to halifax tonight.....DRAW...

I would just take the Stevenage as a single - and a small treble on the 3...

[Mug OUFC]

:laugh :thumbs

Salutations oh man of magic and mystery

Do you really mean Rushden and York to win? :yikes:

[Merlin]

:yikes:....

No..STEVENAGE and BURTON to win...I wrote them as home and away…as they were written :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Sounds sensible..if Stevenage dont make it Im screwed though?

6 points Stevenage at York @ 2.25 (betfred)
1 point treble - Torquay, Stevenage and Burton

[monty]

Stevenage and Torquay are coming out as the highest rated picks on my sheet. It does favour Burton to win but not as much as the first two. Histon away @ Northwich is also coming out quite high as does Gray's @ Stafford. The 2nd best home win is Cambridge Utd they are coming out as a high pick based only on their Home form. And coming out as my best draw I have Farsley Celtic v's Exeter. The ratings worked well last week, but who know's what way they will go this week. I don't know much about the teams in this league, that's why I just take a chance with the best rated ones.
The problem I had with my ratings they would work excellent one week and could be very poor the next. I would probably just stick with the teams you have picked out already.

What do you think about the teams the ratings are going with?


Hi MugOUFC

My ratings sheet called it right with Stevenage, Torquay, Cambridge, Histon and Grays Athletic.

Wrong picks were Burton and the draw pick Farsley Celtic v's Exeter

Not bad as it does say it didn't favour Burton as much as the others.

A single point on each of these 7 bets would have returned over 3 points profit this week.

:)

[Mug OUFC]

Not bad at all monty

Histon annoy me now

Almost a full programme tuesday night...i will be looking at them tomorrow

[monty]

Not bad at all monty

Histon annoy me now

Almost a full programme tuesday night...i will be looking at them tomorrow

Tuesday, 18 September 2007

Aldershot v York, 19:45
Altrincham v Cambridge Utd , 19:45
Burton Albion v Ebbsfleet United, 19:45
Crawley Town v Woking, 19:45
Exeter v Forest Green, 19:45
Halifax v Northwich, 19:45
Histon v Torquay, 19:45
Kidderminster v Droylsden, 19:45
Salisbury v Stafford Rangers, 19:45
Stevenage v Farsley Celtic, 19:45
Weymouth v Rushden & D'monds, 19:45


Mug OUFC

Just incase your interested? This is what the my ratings is picking out as likely wins in the midweek games. :)

[Mug OUFC]

Certainly am interested my friend, your ratings seem to be very effective. Are they all strong picks?

[monty]

Yes! they look strong picks, to be a pick? they have got to be superior on Home/Away form, as well as the season Season Form. And the teams in bold matched up with both. Burton and Crawley also came out as good picks based on their Home form, but their season form wasn't just as high as I would have liked.

[Mug OUFC]

Thats a lot of strong picks :yikes:

I can see why though. Altrincham, Stafford, Northwich and Droylsden are all pony. Aldershot and stevenage are good sides.

Shouldnt complain about having a lot of options but not sure the best way to bet these :ooo

[Mug OUFC]

Merlin you are the man for staking strategies...what would you do here?

I like 4 of the home teams here, Halifax, Kidderminster, Salisbury and Stevenage. I may take out Salisbury and/or Halifax depending on team news and maybe replace one of them with Aldershot.

Odds are around 1.4 to 1.6. At these odds doubles and trebles would require all 4 to come in to profit so they are no good. A 4 team acca sounds good but still need all 4 to come in and one will probably :censored: it up, especially as these are midweek fixtures.

Best way to stake it?

[Merlin]

Are the kick-offs the same time?

[monty]

The choice is yours mate. I've just been taking what I think is the strongest bets at the best odds. (I'm not saying bet them all, just the ones you like)

For Tuesdays games I've entererd in all the info and that's what the sheet said are likely winners. I don't have much of a clue about this League but the ratings sheet has so far correctly picked 10 wins from 13 matches.
I had originally dropped this league as it was very inconsistant last season, one week it would pick lots of winners for me and the next it was really rubbish. (This is what I fear most, so far it has been good, but it could go all wrong)
I've already said in a previous post about my concerns with this league. I'll probably take 3 of the teams and put on singles and a treble, but it will be small bets.

[Merlin]

Hi Skittle...:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Are the kick-offs the same time?

Ja :)

[Mug OUFC]

P.S You can call me skittle if you like :D

[monty]

Hi Skittle...:laugh

Thought you were going out?

[Merlin]

Been and come back...

[monty]

P.S You can call me skittle if you like :D

Lol Sorry mate.... I had intended to write a reply to skittle thread on G.G but ended up writing this one first.

[monty]

Been and come back...


Ok ...I had thought you were away out for a few :hic :hic :hic

[monty]

Mug OUFC

I meant to ask you last week, how did you get on with your detox diet, did you go for the apples :yikes: or the cider?...:spinning

[Merlin]

Ja :)

Well with 4 games kicking off at the same time…you have 2 options…

1 x acca
4 x trebles

At the prices you will get between 3ish and 4ish points back for 1 treble….in other words….money back job…….

I would play 4 trebles……..

And its a fact that 4 trebles will always return more than an acca....so that’s the way I would go….

But of course , without 3 winners you lose 4 points instead of 1 (if you did the acca)…

[Skittle]

Hi Skittle...:laugh

???

Went to work at 6.30ish, got back at 1.30ish. You checking me out :yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

Mug OUFC

I meant to ask you last week, how did you get on with your detox diet, did you go for the apples :yikes: or the cider?...:spinning

Apples :ooo It was hell. I had the whole lot, 48 hour headache, nausea, flu like symptoms. I lost about half a stone, and there isnt a lot of me to lose.

NEVER AGAIN :yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

Well with 4 games kicking off at the same time…you have 2 options…

1 x acca
4 x trebles

At the prices you will get between 3ish and 4ish points back for 1 treble….in other words….money back job…….

I would play 4 trebles……..

And its a fact that 4 trebles will always return more than an acca....so that’s the way I would go….

But of course , without 3 winners you lose 4 points instead of 1 (if you did the acca)…

OK cheers, will go with the trebles then unless I cut it down to 3 selections :thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

BET ANALYSIS
Won 9
Lost 8
Total 17
Strike Rate 53%
Total Staked 54.00
Profit(loss) 8.91
Yield 17%

[Mug OUFC]

Northwich have sacked neil redfearn. Doubt they will have someone new in place in time for tomorrow night but should this be enough of a random factor to put me off the halifax bet?...i do still reckon halifax will win...but it is a night when there are plenty of options

[monty]

Apples :ooo It was hell. I had the whole lot, 48 hour headache, nausea, flu like symptoms. I lost about half a stone, and there isnt a lot of me to lose.

NEVER AGAIN :yikes:


Why did you do it...Lol

I told you mate, you should have done it the Scottish way :hic but you might still have got yourself a headache...:splapme

[Mug OUFC]

I had to cleanse my bowels :ooo I have been put on a starch free diet so had to start from a clean slate, as it were :yikes: Not sure if cider would have worked quite so well, would have been a lot more fun though :D

Anyway, what effect do you think the managerial change at northwich will have on the halifax bet? Paul warhurst has been put in caretaker charge.

[monty]

I have a betting book that says a team who gets a new manager has the same chance of winning as they did with the old manager. It also says people only remember the games when a new manager was appointed and won they never remember the game when a new manager was appointed and lost.

My opinion is Northwich are crap just now and Halifax have played well at home in their last few games, so I'll stick with the home team. If you have any doubts about the game just give it a miss. Plenty of other bets to go with.

[Mug OUFC]

Mmm I saw somewhere that it does have an effect...but only at home :spinning

Ill stick with it :thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

6 point treble @ bluesquare
Halifax 1.61
Kidderminster 1.53
Stevenage 1.4

ive dropped salisbury...they are a newly promoted team playing for the first time as warm favourites. 1.6ish doesnt appeal to me, even against sh1t stafford. Stafford have loaned a keeper and defender from watford in the last week. The odds necessitate multiple bets tonight, and I dont like big multiple bets... even trebles are too big for my liking, and a four fold is far too many on a midweek. Im just going to, perhaps foolishly, avoid salisbury.

[Merlin]

Thats a dodgy all in stake strategy , C....:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

Is it? :ooo Even on such short prices?

Odds for 1 double would come in at about 2.5 - it would be 3 doubles, so a double coming in is a small loss anyway.

I would be doubling my money on doubles if all three came in, whereas in the treble Im tripling it? And its 1 bet instead of 3?

Its too late now anyway but would you have reduced the stake or taken it in doubles?

[Merlin]

Is it? :ooo And its 1 bet instead of 3?




But that’s irrelevant , (in this instance) coz the total stake is still the same…..

What I am referring to is the risk and possible return for your stake….

I agree that playing 3 x 2 point doubles returns about 13 points….losing for only 1 double……

However, if you were to pick your best 2 bets, and placed a 3 point double , and include the other game in a 3 point treble…you would get about 17 Points back……Moreover, if only your double came in, you would still show a small profit…

For a straight treble you get just over 20 Points back……in my opinion…if you compare this against the 3 point double and 3 point treble strategy – which returns 17 points – it is obvious to me mind that the latter is better…coz you got the safety net of small profit for your double…

Have I made sense…:yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

*penny drops* I would never have thought about playing it as 1 double and 1 treble, as soon as i think doubles i think its 3 doubles. I like the idea of picking the best two and adding in the third as a treble - the maths work. That is what I should have done not only tonight but this last weekend - stevenage and torquay in a double and burton in a treble. Lesson learnt :thumbs

The only thing that would worry me about this is that if one of the teams in your double AND treble failed, youve lost everything...and you may as well be on the treble for more profit if thats the case...??

of course i do have stevenage tonight as well as a single...to get my matched bet at bluesq.

[monty]

Merlin

You said you aimed for 100 points in a whole season, do you have set amount of points to aim for in each day?

[Merlin]

[QUOTE=Mug OUFC;438855The only thing that would worry me about this is that if one of the teams in your double AND treble failed, youve lost everything...and you may as well be on the treble for more profit if thats the case...??

[/QUOTE]

:laugh...

You cant have it all ways.....

I will tell you now, the bookie would prefer you to place the treble instead of 1 double and treble……

And that says it all…:yikes:

[Merlin]

Merlin

You said you aimed for 100 points in a whole season, do you have set amount of points to aim for in each day?

No.....but I was hoping to make about 12 Points profit per month(average)

[monty]

Cheers Mate....:thumbs that sounds like a good amount to aim for. I've never really had a set amount to aim for before. I normally just try to make enough to pay for a 2 week family holiday in the Med each year.

[Skittle]

Wouldn't three weeks be better. :rolleyes:

[monty]

Sure Skittle that would be great mate..:happyboun but It's hard enough trying to win enough for two weeks, and the way I'm going just now? I'll be lucky to get a day trip to Blackpool.:laugh:laugh:laugh

[Merlin]

day trip to Blackpool.:laugh:laugh:laugh

The last time I had one of them (was a weekend) , I ended up living in Kirkaldy for 8 months…:laugh

[monty]

The last time I had one of them (was a weekend) , I ended up living in Kirkaldy for 8 months…:laugh

You lived in Kirkaldy for 8 months ....lol :laugh

Did you go and see Skittle's team?

[Merlin]

Yeah….a few times………..lived on this dodgy scheme in Overton…with an even dodgier bird….:laugh…

[Skittle]

Revelation time guy's. I assume you both think I live in Kirkcaldy ~{ note the correct spelling }~. The truth is I married a Kirkcaldy lass and she came down here to sunny Liverpool to live with me. My connection with the Rovers stems from this and the fact that I'm up there twice a year visiting the outlaws.

I only came on here to look at tonights Conference bets and end up starring in 'This Is Your Life'. :yikes:

[monty]

I only came on here to look at tonights Conference bets and end up starring in 'This Is Your Life'. :yikes:

Lol.... :laugh:laugh:laugh Tell us more....:D

[Mug OUFC]

:laugh...

You cant have it all ways.....

I will tell you now, the bookie would prefer you to place the treble instead of 1 double and treble……

And that says it all…:yikes:

I assume I shouldnt put on a 6 point double then to go with my treble :doh

I have never lived in Scotland, FYI.

[Merlin]

I assume I shouldnt put on a 6 point double then to go with my treble :doh


Shertainly not :yikes:

[Mug OUFC]

ok :D:thumbs