Maxy's football bets

[MaxySerb]

I don't want to spam Merlin's threads, so I thought that I can make my one. :)

It is very hard to get some good values in this stage of UEFA Cup because almost no one knows nothing about the teams. So, I'll pick some of them that I know...

1st Pick:

Rabotnicki (Macedonia) - Zrinjski (BIH)

First of all, you all should know that Zrinjski is in this stage because UEFA DISQUALIFIED FC Partizan (Serbia) due to bad conduct of violent supporters. They had some fights in Bosnia and many fights on some other games.
That game against Zrinjski was a first competitive game for Partizan in this season and they absolutely trashed Zrinjski. Goal difference from that two matches was 11:1.
Partizan demolished Zrinjski at away game 6:1, and then in Belgrade they demolished them again 5:0. Partizan was disqualified so Zrinjski went trough.
I've watched both games and I must say that Zrinjski is bad as hell! They are bad in every aspect of the game, and I think that their goalie is not a footballer at all. He must be some honorary player or something like that, no one that bad could make for a living from football.

Here is a of form last 6 games:

Rabotnicki: 4-2-0 (Goal diff 9:3) Rabotnicki currently lay on 4th place in their domestic league.

Zrinjski: 2-0-4 (Goal diff 8:17) Zrinjski currently lay on 9th place in their domestic league.

Every value higher than 1.5 is OK for me, so my pick is:

Rabotnicki to win, at 1.50.
10/10 Points

[yerotsluap]

Certainly looks like a good bet

I'll put Blackburn forward as a bit of value also at 1.50. Full strength team picked for the game and Roque Santa Cruz's first start

[MattR]

Thanks for the info Maxy. 1.50 looks a good price from what you are saying.


Paul, I'm always a bit cautious about away teams but you've got to think Blackburn can win against a finnish side. I'm tempted to lay MyPa to be on the safe side but 1.50 does look a good price.

[yerotsluap]

I'm always cautious about Blackburn in europe after Trelleborg but the quality of the side playing today should be enough. Just settling down to watch it

[MattR]

Good luck, at least Blackburn went for the intertoto unlike us who decided the financial rewards of the Asian Trophy was more important :rolleyes:

[yerotsluap]

The intertoto isn't as arduous as it once was. Only two rounds to get into uefa cup first round proper, just means we'll probably collapse dramatically at the end of the season. Am actually quite surprised at the team selection what with Arsenal coming up at the weekend

[scoobydoo]

Thanks for the post Maxy....they are backing it in...must be Matts thousands I reckon:wink...would you still make it a bet at 1.45 or not mate?

[MaxySerb]

On 1.45...yes.
Under 1.40...never. I think that there is no game on the world that is worth a risk if value is under 1.40.

[MaxySerb]

This is my local bookie, some 100 yds for my home, so I'm looking the prices on their site:
http://www.mozzart.co.yu/matchAction.do

I think that the price on Litex (Bulgaria) against Besa (Albania) at 1.85 it's quite good. But, it's away game for Litex so I'm not sure enough to make it Maxy bet. I've watched Besa against Bezanija in Belgrade, they are quite bad, as Bezanija as well...Bezanija Belgrade is not strong team, so Besa got trough on away goals. But, I think that Litex can win this one.

[MaxySerb]

21. min Besa - Litex 0:1

[MaxySerb]

22. min Besa - Litex 0:2

:D

[scoobydoo]

On 1.45...yes.
Under 1.40...never. I think that there is no game on the world that is worth a risk if value is under 1.40.

Thanks Maxy..gone back to 1.50

[MaxySerb]

Well...this is not going to "Maxy Bank" because it wasn't "Maxy pick". But, it always feels good to be right. :D
I've placed some small money on this.

HT Besa - Litex 0:3

@to Scooby

What can I say...I think that 1.50 is very good value for that game. Too good to be true.

[MaxySerb]

FT Besa - Litex 0:3

I don't know why, but, value on Rabotnicki on Bet365 raised on 1.80. :thumbs
http://www.bet365.com/home/default.asp?affiliate=lis10

[MattR]

2.02 on betfair now!

[MaxySerb]

2.02...well...now I'm starting to be worried... :)
I think it's a decoy, they do that often...

[MaxySerb]

Rabotnicki - Zrinjski 0-0 FT...

And Zrinjski had a player sent off in 65. min...

[scoobydoo]

Never mind Maxy...price went out hugely didnt it?!:doh Not sure Ive seen many 1/2 shots go out like that before in football before the game....

[MaxySerb]

Neither do I...
They fixed it, 100%. ;fire

[scoobydoo]

Neither do I...
They fixed it, 100%. ;fire

Maxy....did you manage to see the game at all? Just would like to know if there was much action in the last 2/3's of the pitch?

[MaxySerb]

No...it wasn't on TV...but, I have some sources, I'll get you a statistics with description of game.

[Merlin]

Unlucky , Maxy...

[MaxySerb]

Yeah...tomorrow is Irish league, chance for cutting back the losses... :)

[Merlin]

Yeah...tomorrow is Irish league, chance for cutting back the losses... :)


Thats just woth I am looking at right now:yikes:

[MaxySerb]

I'll take a look later, I have to study now... :( It's 23:57 PM already...

[MaxySerb]

Sunday picks:

1st pick.

Inter M. - Roma
Venue 20:45 CET, August 19 2007 - "G.Meazza" Stadium
REFEREE: Roberto Rosetti ASSISTANT REFS: Griselli, Calcagno 4TH OFFICIAL : Banti

First, some facts about teams:

INTER:

Roberto Mancini has named the following 20-player squad for Sunday evening's Italian Super Cup match against Roma:
Goalkeepers: 1 Francesco Toldo, 12 Julio Cesar.
Defenders: 2 Ivan Ramiro Cordoba, 4 Javier Zanetti, 6 Maxwell, 13 Maicon, 16 Nicolas Burdisso, 25 Walter Samuel, 26 Cristian Chivu, 31 Cesar.
Midfielders: 5 Dejan Stankovic, 7 Luis Figo, 14 Patrick Vieira, 15 Olivier Dacourt, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 21 Santiago Solari.
Strikers: 8 Zlatan Ibrahimovic, 9 Julio Cruz, 18 Hernan Crespo, 29 David Suazo.

How about some trivia? :)

- I think that this is very important because of great rivalry between these two teams:

A win over Roma on Sunday will see Inter equal AC Milan's record of three consecutive Italian Super Cup triumphs. The Rossoneri won it in 1992, 1993 and 1994 with victories over Parma (2-1), Torino (1-0) and Sampdoria (5-4 on penalties after a 1-1 draw).
- If Inter become the second team to win three Italian Super Cups in a row, Roberto Mancini will become the second coach to achieve a hat-trick of consecutive triumphs after Fabio Capello who led AC Milan to victories in 1992, 1993 and 1994.
- Roma goalkeeper Doni has conceded 79 goals since moving to Italy. He has let in 17 (21.5%) in games against Inter - more than any other team. Hernan Crespo scored five goals against Doni last season to become the Brazilian goalkeeper's most feared opponent.
- The last time Inter failed to score at home was last 1 February when they were held to a goalless draw by Sampdoria in the Coppa Italia. Mancini's team have scored in each of their 11 home matches since that date, netting a total of 23 goals.

Important: Inter have signed defender Cristian Chivu from Roma during this transfer window.


ROMA:


Squad: 17 ALVAREZ EDGARD
30 MANCINI ALESSANDRO
13 ANDREOLLI MARCO
8 AQUILANI ALBERTO
29 BARUSSO AHMED APIMAH
27 BERTAGNOLI JULIO SERGIO
33 BRIGHI MATTEO
77 CASSETTI MARCO
1 CURCI GIANLUCA
16 DE ROSSI DANIELE
18 ESPOSITO MAURO
14 GIULY LUDOVIC
32 MARANGON DONIEBER ALEXANDER 'DONI'
5 MEXES PHILIPPE
23 NONDA SHABANI
2 PANUCCI CHRISTIAN
20 PERROTTA SIMONE
28 ROSI ALEANDRO
11 TADDEI FERRANTE RODRIGO
22 TONETTO MAX
10 TOTTI FRANCESCO
9 VUCINIC MIRKO

Important: Roma have signed Ludovic Giuly


Head to Head


Mancini v Spalletti
There have been 16 previous meetings between the two coaches. Mancini has won 8, Spalletti has won 4 and there have been 4 draws. Mancini's teams have scored in all 16 matches (total 30 goals). Both Mancini and Spalletti's sides have scored in each of the 9 games in which the current Inter coach has hosted the Tuscan tactician.


Mancini v Roma
Inter coach Roberto Mancini has faced Roma 22 times, winning 8, drawing 6 and losing 8. His teams have hit the target in all 11 home games, scoring a total of 22 goals.


Spalletti v Inter
Luciano Spalletti has collected 8 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats from 22 competitive meetings with Inter. Spalletti's sides have never drawn in Milan, with 4 wins and 7 defeats from 11 games, and have conceded in each away match (total 27 goals let in).

Last Super Cup (26.08.2006.): Inter - Roma 4:3 in extra time (Figo 97. min)

Based on last 6 matches
Inter vs Roma Roma vs Inter
Inter won 66% Roma won 16.67%
Roma won 33 Inter won 33.33%
Draw 0% Draw 50%

All time history
Inter vs Roma
Inter won 66.67%
Roma won 16:67%
Draw 16.67%


Verdict


Considering all this, and that last year Roma trashed Inter (6:2) in Coppa Italia, I think that nero-azzuri have heavy motivation to win this game.
They are playing on their home field and their squad is complete (Adriano is only one missing). Roma's defense have to capitulate at least some 2 times.

So, picks:
Inter to win at 1.9
6/10
and
Inter to win Super Cup at 1.55 (think about this one if you don't like to risk too much)
8/10

There is second pick coming up.

[Merlin]

Great work Maxy....looks like Inter M, all the way....

[Merlin]

Maxy..think Serbia are playing Belgium Wednesday…...will be favourites for the game….can they justify favouritism..?

[MaxySerb]

Yes, It will be a full preview tonight, don't worry. :D
We should win of course, Belgium have 80% new squad, young...
We are taking this game VERY SERIOUS and as decisive because we are not expecting to win against Portugal in Lisbon. We simply have to have this away win against Belgium.

Poljska 9 6 1 2 15:7 19
Srbija 7 4 2 1 10:4 14
Portugalija 7 4 2 1 15:5 14
Finska 8 4 2 2 9:5 14
Belgija 8 2 1 5 5:10 7
Jermenija 7 2 1 4 3:7 7
Kazahstan 8 1 3 4 5:11 6
Azerbejdžan 8 1 2 5 4:17 5

[MaxySerb]

EC 2008: BELGIUM - SERBIA

SERBIA:

Our national manager Havier Clemente didn't say anything about tomorrow's XI, but our busy reporters watched the final training and this is the XI players that practiced and trained whole day together:

Serbia will probably play in 4-5-1 formation.
Goalie:
Vladimir Stojkovic (Sporting L.) - Good keeper, excellent reflexes, flair, can make terrible and stupid mistakes.

Defence:
Antonio Rukavina (Partizan) - Very good defender, I'm suporter of Red Star but I must say that he is very good

Nemanja Vidić (Manchester U) - We all know who is Nemanja Vidic

Krstajić (Shalke 04) - Old, but reliable

Dragutinović (Sevilla) - In excellent form, standard for Sevilla

Midfield:
Kuzmanović (Fiorentina) - Serbian player from Swiss, we have done everything to make him play for Serbia (he was playing for Swiss youngsters), good player.

Kovačević (Lans) - Real fighter, not much of footballer, we call him Lion Hart, terrible shoot, even worst passing, quite fast.

Koroman (Red Star) - Far the best Red Star player, very good player, played for Portsmouth and CSKA.

Janković (Palermo) - with Zigic and Vidic, far the best Serbian international last season. He was simply outstanding for Mallorca, scored some 11 goals. He posses everything, fair technique, stamina, creativity, straight, good passing and excellent long shot.

Attack:
Pantelić (Hertha) - Do no...good striker, but he is totally out of form now.

Lazović (PSV) <-> [Smiljanić (Espanyol)- playing midfield ].

Important players missing:
Nikola Zigic (Valencia)(Striker) - injured ankle (Big blow. Very big blow. He saved Santander last season with bunch of goals and assists. Transfered to Valencia for 20 mils)

Dejan Stankovic (Inter) - suspended (Somebody thinks that he is some very good player but I don't. When he is playing for Serbia he plays like my grandma. So, better for us that he is not playing)

Milos Krasic (CSKA Moskow) - injured, but he can possibly play some 20 mins. (Fair blow, very good player.)

Mateja Kezman - Clemente doesn't want to call him.

Public expectations:
We all think that we can win. But no one is 100% sure. We'll have a good squad on the pitch, much better than Belgium, but it's an away game. No one thinks about defeat. It's simply impossible and unacceptable.

In interviews with players and manager you can see this:
- Everybody is saying that they are taking this game very serious because we are not expecting to beat Portugal in Lisbon. If we want to qualify, we must have this away win. No excuses.

Belgium
They have big problems with the atmosphere in team. Their best defender Vinsent Company is fined by FA because of talking about that. He is saying that there is some kind of Flaman separatism. They are in bad relations with Valons. He says that it's the same like in their parliament.
Belgians are also having a "change of generation" going on, they have 9 players born 1984. For this game, they recalled some more experienced players.

Our reporters are saying that this will be their squad for tomorrow:

Belgium will play in 4-4-2 or 5-3-2 formations.
My apology to Belgians if I didn't wrote some names right.

G:
Stejnen (Recalled, young Bai blow it up in Finland) - know by threating to Cristiano Ronaldo that he will broke his legs.

Def:
Hufkens
Company
Lombarts
Ver Malen
Mid:
Simons
De Fur
Mudin Gaji
Gor[Gerarts]
F:
Sterhele
Denbele

Important players missing:
Daniel van Byten (Bayern) - injury
Kleman - injury
Van Damme - injury
Emil Mpenza - rejected invitation

Whan can I say...we are expecting from Belgians to defend, they don't have some really good and creative players so they will probably wait their chance form counter-attack.

HEAD TO HEAD:

Last 7 games Serbia:

Serbia - Azerbaijan 1:0
Poland - Serbia 1:1
Serbia - Belgium 1:0
Serbia - Armenia 3:0
Kazakhstan - Serbia 2:1
Serbia - Portugal 1:1
Finland - Serbia 0:2

Last 8 games Belgium:

Belgium - Kazakhstan 0:0
Armenia - Belgium 0:1
Serbia - Belgium 1:0
Belgium - Azerbaijan 3:0
Belgium - Poland 0:1
Portugal - Belgium 4:0
Belgium - Portugal 1:2
Finland - Belgium 2:0

Last game in Belgium: Belgium - Serbia 0:2

Verdict:
Considering all this, I must say I believe we can win. Serbia is better team. But Serbia never scores much goals in big and important games against some bigger opponents. N-E-V-E-R! And I'll say again - never!
In last ten games with Italy, Spain, Holland, Portugal always was under 2.5 goals. Only Argentina devastate us 6:1 (Bad day :lickme).
We can score 3+ only against weak opponents (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia...).
Belgium will strive not to lose and not to disgrace them selfs in front of their supporters.
Serbia lacks finishing a bit, especially without Nikola Zigic and Mateja Kezman.
So, if you don't want to risk, take this:

Under 2.5 goals at 1.60
Asian Handicap on Serbia 1.65
I think that this is 99% certain.


If you are a bit braver, you can take:

Serbia to win at 2.35
Value it's worth a risk, so I'll probably take it. But not with some big money. If Serbia win, it will probably be 0:1.

Good luck and gooooo Serbia! :thumbs

[scoobydoo]

Very good write up Maxy...good luck tonight!! :thumbs

[MaxySerb]

We'll need it... :D