PAPERTEST Mug OUFC's Stupid Goalscorer Theories

[Mug OUFC]

This is just a paper trial - i will record it here cos i wont keep it up to date if i dont. Dont follow these!

Having been a striker myself, I have a theory that goalscorers score in streaks. I dont know whether its confidence, hitting peak physical condition or what but looking through top goalscorer scoring frequency seems to show that there is a greater probability of a recognised goalscorer scoring in any given match if he has notched in the game before.

I may also extend this to include players who scored in the corresponding fixture last season.

Im going to paper test this in live TV games, for interest, without risking any money.

Parameters:
- Live TV games
- Recognised goalscorers only (so no defenders etc)
WHO
- Scored in the previous match
- Did not score in the match before that*
OR
- scored in the corresponding fixture last season

*This one Im not sure on - goals seem to come in 2's...but why back against a striker in form?

Tonights TV game
Burton v Torquay
Lee Phillips and Tim Sills to score anytime @ 3 & 2.87 respectively.
1 point single on each.

Mocking and harsh criticism is welcomed :Helooo

[Merlin]

:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

:punch1

[monty]

I would do the better odds for first goalscorer as well as anytime goalscorer, if the player scores first you get both bets up, and if he scores anytime in the match the bet will cover both stakes and also give you a little profit?

Mind you if he doesn't score your f~~~~d twice....:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

That is not a bad shout monty to be fair - I will keep two records

SO TONIGHT

Anytime GS
Phillips @ 3
Sills @ 2.87

First GS
Phillips @ 7
Sills @ 6.5

1 point on each

[Mug OUFC]

Breaking my own rules already :splapme. Not a live game this one but got to try it - its not like its real money. In the stevenage game there is a player who scored last time out and scored in the corresponding fixture last season.

Stevenage v Stafford

Craig Dobson first goalscorer @ 19
anytime scorer @ 7

1 point on each

[MattR]

Look forward to seeing how this pans out Mug. :thumbs

[monty]

Breaking my own rules already :splapme.

C...you remind me of myself, I tend to do things like that....:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

i make that NULL POINT

Onwards and upwards

[Mug OUFC]

England v Russia

First GS
Owen @ 5

Anytime GS
Owen @ 2.37

I did consider Kerzakhov for the ruskies too but thought better of it - my success in betting away goalscorers didnt go too well with toruqay

[MattR]

If it's a paper test MUG, you might as well keep Kerzakhov in it. Lucky Heskey didn't score Saturday, could have been a long wait for another :laugh

[Mug OUFC]

Fair point

First GS
Kerzakhov @ 10

Anytime @ 4

Suffice to say i wouldnt even back heskey in a papertest :D

[MattR]

That looks a decent price. He's looked a good player when I've seen him for Sevilla.

[monty]

Fair point

First GS
Kerzakhov @ 10

Anytime @ 4

Suffice to say i wouldnt even back heskey in a papertest :D

Agreed...:laugh

[Mug OUFC]

England v Russia

First GS
Owen @ 5

Anytime GS
Owen @ 2.37

I did consider Kerzakhov for the ruskies too but thought better of it - my success in betting away goalscorers didnt go too well with toruqay


WINNER ::hump
Staked 10
FG Won 1
AG Won 1
Profit (loss) (2.63)

[mathare]

Do the Kerzakhov bets stand? He didn't play last night did he? In which case stakes are refunded on those bets. Not sure if you have included them in your figures or not...

[MattR]

He came on after 80 mins Mat, so I'd assume (depending on rules) that the first goalscorer wouldn't as it had happened but the anytime would??

[mathare]

He came on after 80 mins Mat, so I'd assume (depending on rules) that the first goalscorer wouldn't as it had happened but the anytime would??I must have missed him coming on. But you're first, the first goalscorer bet is stakes returned but the anytime bet stands.

[Mug OUFC]

Ah ha

I never saw who was playing for russia, got in the ground late and left on 78 minutes :ooo

First GS will be void, anytime wont.

Staked 9
FG Won 1
AG Won 1
Profit (loss) (1.63)

Thanks chaps :thumbs

[Mug OUFC]

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

First GS
Federico 12
Sanogo 8

Anytime GS
Federico 4.5
Sanogo 3.4

[Mug OUFC]

im getting bored of this! last try

derby newcastle
owen 5.5 2.5