Cheltenham around the corner

[l'head eagle]

Hello win2winites, been a long time!!

Have been busy with the Cheltenham study and found a few fancies but will no doubt change my mind. The basic profile for a winner on Tuesday is for horse who has winning form in gale force winds, shame Breedsbreeze is running on Wednesday.

The Supreme Novices will start it all off and I can't get away from Muirhead. He picks up at the last fence and battles all the way to the line. Reminds me a bit of Brave Inca, loads of dangers but looks a decent starter for the 4 days even if the horse is a little fragile. I think he would have beaten Cork All Star without CAS mistake.

Tidal Bay for me in the Arkle. Jumping dodgy but so many horse don't perform at Donny and even with loads of mistakes nearly won. Has a touch of class and is decent alternative to the Nicholls hotpot.

Go against stats and common sense and go for Katchit in the Champion Hurdle. Loves Cheltenham and been trained for this day. Doubts about if he is good enough, but those same doubts could be thrown at the other principles. 9-10/1 is about fair and we will see.

I have not looked at the WH Trophy in great detail, but have a feeling Monkerhostin will run well.

Garde Champetre to win the cross country. Will probably drift on the day but will be an EW bet to nothing.

Ashkasar winning on Saturday will mean River Liane could be a reasonable price.

Good Luck all

[susanwells]

Hello.. well I`m 20 miles from the course and it`s pouring and the wind`s getting up so we`ll have soft or heavy ground unless it all dries out..
can`t say I agree with any of your choices but that`s Cheltenham.
Nice to have you back. how is William ? Probably doing A levels by now. :hearty

[l'head eagle]

He is 3 and he is doing rather well !!

To be honest I could have 5 against the field in most races at Cheltenham and not get a winner !! I hope whatever you choose goes well and most importantly we enjoy the 4 days !!

[Win2Win]

Cheltenham drains very well though, so should be good racing ground.

[l'head eagle]

Changed my mind already.

Can't be having River Liane (watch him win!!), and Ahkasar looks rock solid but not bomb proof. Grand Schlem could go very close if he get into the race early enough. The strong pace of a festival race should help and is worthwhile EW wager.

I still think Monkerhostin will run well, but Abrigante looks better than An Accordion. Timmy in the plate, the only fear is that the horse will either finish 1st or tailed off, not much in between.

[l'head eagle]

The best day at Cheltenham for me in memory with 3 winners. Only had 2 in 4 days last year.

Muirhead ran poorly, no excuses just not good enough at the end of the day. Made worse when the Mrs backed Captain Cee Bee because William likes Cbeebies.

Tidal Bay got me going, outstaying and outclassing the field.

Katchit got me jumping and cheering in the front room. Had a decent bet. I am a big fan of stats and trends but I just love the horse and ignored the 5yo stat. I am still on cloud 9 after that one.

Abragante ran well.

Garde Champetre looked decent with gears not normally seen in Cross Country. One to follow.

Grand Schlem ran a blinder in 3rd, given every chance if good enough (with a French jockey!!).

Now for day 2.........

[susanwells]

Great day for me too L'Head.. I had Captain Cee Bee, Garde Champetre and L'Accordian and I wish wish wish I`d done the f/c on the opener. Didn`t believe you on Katchit..not only the stats but met the jock in the dry cleaners - I do keep doing that - and he said not this year, so.... But great tip. Great to have a girl winning at Cheltenham again too.
Today our nearby little town doesn`t know whether to laugh or cry.. cry because most of the hotels were full of Irish who are stuck in Ireland without ferries but the people who are here have nothing to do today so thewy`re shopping and all the newspapers were sold out by 8.30 ! An ill wind, as they say...

[l'head eagle]

The marathon today, after the luck on Tuesday playing with the bookies money but still 10 races is a bad losing day if luck is out !!

12.30 - Rimsky, I think is better than price suggests. Stays the distance and as EW shots go is worth small support.

1.05 - Air Force One, Has to be on the premises. Conditions look perfect.

1.40 - Finger On The Pulse, Serious form in Ireland and a great future in the chase game. Gallops and Gallops.

2.20 - Twist Magic, is the class act in the field. Only worry is if he really acts on the track.

2.55 - The Listener, quality and class, loves the distance because he has been found short over 3m at the top level. This is his game and is a confident choice.

3.30 - Aitmatov, EW bet in the hope that the distance suits. Is a very good horse and does have gears which at Cheltenham are vital. Could worry the favourate if all goes to plan.

4.05 Patman Du Charmil, EW shot likes Cheltenham and will run his race. Main worry is handicap mark, but is still very young and has a decent claimer in the plate.

4.40 Sir Overbury, EW in the hope he is one of the horses (which probably include 80% of the field) protecting the handicap mark in previous runs. An impossible race in reality and is a shot in the dark.

5.15 Whispered Secret, with the stable in form, he looks the type to excel in this kind of race.

5.50 Corkskeigh Royale, looks perfect for this, class form and experience. Only worry will be the ability in a big field.

Good Luck

[susanwells]

small e/w on PASS IT ON..:hearty

[l'head eagle]

Survived yesterday with one winner at 9/1, small loss for the day but after Tuesday will be well up for the week whatever happens today. Almost got seriously excited when Aimatov started to get into the race and for a few strides was looking good. Was counting the money when I thought the bumper was all mine but not to be !!

Now for today and to be honest no strong opinion.

12.30 - Gaspara should be there or thereabouts.

1.05 - I like Breedsbreeze and will stay and stay. Class is the concern and will depend how the race is run.

1.40 - Kicks for Free could still improve so at the prices is worth an EW interest.

2.15 - Beau Michael - Done nothing wrong just the issue of how much the Irish forms stacks up. If it does has a leading chance.

2.50 Nenuphar Collonges came unstuck in the heavy ground and may turn the form around with Curruthers. If he does has a serious chance.

3.30 Don't need to go into any detail but Kauto Star been there done it, has to be the selection but will watch and enjoy without financial interest.

4.05 Agus A Vic would be a very confident selection, but the real doubt about the distance tempers enthusiasm. But still he must go close and may even improve again.

4.40 Enlightenment could be the one to go under the raidar because of the Nicholls/Henderson factor. Worth a punt.

5.20 I'msingingtheblues' form is looking better after Tuesday.

Good Luck !!!

[l'head eagle]

Well that was another Cheltenham done with. Done rather well by my standards and well up for the week.

[vegyjones]

Some nice picks there L'head!

Hopefully it won't be next Cheltenham Festival before we see you again! :)